PageStat 2019-20

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east hockey
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PageStat 2019-20

Post by east hockey » Wed Feb 12, 2020 6:22 pm

Having a little problem, it would seem, on Twitter this week. :mrgreen: So I'll post the current Top 20 here. Includes all games played through last night.

1. Andover
2. Blake
3. Eden Prairie
4. Hermantown
5. Moorhead
6. Hill-Murray
7. Rosemount
8, Lakeville South
9. St. Cloud Cathedral
10. Prior Lake
11. Benilde-St Margaret's
12. Edina
13. Cretin-Derham Hall
14. Minnetonka
15. Grand Rapids
16. Chaska
17. Wayzata
18. Warroad
19. East Grand Forks
20. Lakeville North

Other 7AA: Cloquet (#33), Duluth East (#36), Elk River (#43), Forest Lake (#51), Anoka (#101) Duluth Marshall (#114)

For its faults, QRF does have one interesting idea, and that is the tie-breaker. While I don't agree with the overall record being a tie-breaker, the head-to-head certainly should. I'll have some time in the off-season to take a closer look at how such a tie-breaker might affect how PageStat predicts section tournament games, and whether it's a success or crap. I would use only one tie-breaker--head-to-head. Otherwise, the PageStat rating would determine the seeding.

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Re: PageStat 2019-20

Post by WestMetro » Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:19 pm

Looks pretty reasonable to me

Notably absent WBL, where your formula properly ranked them lower earlier than anyone else if I recall right.

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Re: PageStat 2019-20

Post by east hockey » Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:47 pm

WestMetro wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:19 pm
Looks pretty reasonable to me

Notably absent WBL, where your formula properly ranked them lower earlier than anyone else if I recall right.
That 36th ranked SOS hurts. Their recent results hurt. If you start cold and end hot, PageStat will rate you higher than the reverse, due to the momentum factor built into the formula. This affects the Bears directly; their average game score in their first ten games was 19.63, and 18.96 in the most recent ten.

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PageStat ratings by section

Post by east hockey » Sat Feb 15, 2020 2:28 pm

PageStat ratings by section. These will be the ratings used to predict section tournament games:

Sec. 1AA: (1) Lakeville South (2) Lakeville North (3) Hastings (4) Farmington (5) Roch. Century (6) Owatonna (7) Northfield (8 ) Roch. Mayo (9) Roch. J.M.

Sec. 2AA: (1) Eden Prairie (2) Prior Lake (3) Minnetonka (4) Chaska (5) Holy Family (6) Shakopee (7) New Prague (8 ) Chanhassen

Sec. 3AA: (1) Rosemount (2) St. Thomas Academy (3) Eagan (4) Burnsville (5) Eastview (6) Bloom. Jefferson (7) Park (C.G.) (8 ) Apple Valley

Sec. 4AA: (1) Hill-Murray (2) Stillwater (3) White Bear Lake (4) East Ridge (5) Mounds View (6) Woodbury (7) Roseville (8 ) Irondale

Sec. 5AA: (1) Maple Grove (2) Blaine (3) Centennial (4) Champlin Park (5) Totino Grace (6) Osseo (7) Coon Rapids (8 ) Spring Lake Park

Sec. 6AA: (1) Blake (2) Benilde-St. Margaret's (3) Edina (4) Cretin-Derham Hall (5) Wayzata (6) St. Louis Park (7) Holy Angels (8 ) Hopkins

Sec. 7AA: (1) Andover (2) Grand Rapids (3) Cloquet (4) Duluth East (5) Elk River (6) Forest Lake (7) Anoka (8 ) Duluth Marshall

Sec. 8AA: (1) Moorhead (2) St. Michael-Albertville (3) Roseau (4) St. Cloud (5) Brainerd (6) Buffalo (7) Rogers (8 ) Bemidji

Sec. 1A: (1) Dodge County (2) Mankato West (3) Mankato East (4) Faribault (5) Minnesota River (6) Albert Lea (7) Waseca (8 ) Winona (9) Rochester Lourdes (10) La Crescent (11) Austin

Sec. 2A: (1) Orono (2) Delano (3) Robb. Armstrong/Cooper (4) Breck (5) Mound Westonka (6) Minneapolis (7) Southwest Christian/Richfield (8 ) Bloom. Kennedy (9) Waconia (10) Providence Academy

Sec. 3A: (1) Hutchinson (2) New Ulm (3) Marshall (4) Litchfield (5) Luverne (6) Windom (7) Worthington (8 ) Willmar (9) Fairmont (10) Redwood Valley

Sec. 4A: (1) Mahtomedi (2) Gentry Academy (3) St. Paul Johnson (4) Tartan (5) South St. Paul (6) St. Paul Academy (7) Simley (8 ) Henry Sibley (9) St. Paul Highland Park (10) Red Wing

Sec. 5A: (1) Monticello (2) Pine City (3) North Branch (4) Princeton (5) St. Francis (6) Northern Lakes (7) Chisago Lakes (8 ) Sauk Rapids (9) Mora (10) Cambridge (11) Becker Big Lake (12) Moose Lake

Sec. 6A: (1) St. Cloud Cathedral (2) Alexandria (3) Little Falls (4) River Lakes (5) Sartell (6) Fergus Falls (7) Morris/Benson (8 ) Breckenridge (9) Wadena (10) Prairie Centre

Sec. 7A: (1) Hermantown (2) Duluth Denfeld (3) Greenway (4) Eveleth-Gilbert (5) Virginia (6) International Falls (7) Hibbing (8 ) Proctor (9) North Shore (11) Ely

Sec. 8A: (1) Warroad (2) East Grand Forks (3) Thief River Falls (4) Detroit Lakes (5) Kittson Central (6) Red Lake Falls (7) Crookston (8 ) Lake of the Woods (9) Park Rapids (10) Bagley

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Re: 2020 Section Tournaments

Post by east hockey » Tue Feb 18, 2020 4:44 pm

PageStat finds itself with an early +1 on the seedings after selecting (9) North Shore over (8) Hibbing on Saturday.

These are the upcoming agreements:

Tonight

(5) Duluth East over (4) Forest Lake in 7AA quarterfinals
(9) Willmar over (8) Fairmont in 3A first round

Other upcoming disagreements (so far)

(5) St. Thomas Academy over (4) Eastview in 3AA quarterfinals
(5) Champlin Park over (4) Totino-Grace in 5AA quarterfinals
(5) Detroit lakes over (4) Kittson Central in 8A quarterfinals

PageStat won by +10 last year, its best season to date. I don't predict the same success this year, but am looking to extend the winning streak to four years. Since 1999, PageStat is up by 46 games, winning 13 seasons, losing 7 and tying 1.

Good luck tonight to all teams!

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Re: PageStat 2019-20

Post by WestMetro » Tue Feb 18, 2020 5:25 pm

Will be interesting to see how things unfold

If you get all 8 section winners right this year , you should ask 1 mill for the formula and cash out !

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Re: PageStat 2019-20

Post by east hockey » Tue Feb 18, 2020 5:34 pm

WestMetro wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 5:25 pm
Will be interesting to see how things unfold

If you get all 8 section winners right this year , you should ask 1 mill for the formula and cash out !
It might be a nice addition to my retirement pensions :)

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Re: PageStat 2019-20

Post by east hockey » Tue Feb 18, 2020 8:49 pm

PageStat and the seedings are even after Forest lake beats Duluth East.

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Re: PageStat 2019-20

Post by east hockey » Tue Feb 18, 2020 9:01 pm

And with Fairmont beating Willmar in 3A, PageStat is down a game.

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Re: PageStat 2019-20

Post by goldy313 » Tue Feb 18, 2020 10:15 pm

There have to be situations where you look at page2stat and go #-o., I am thinking Willmar over Fairmont. I suppose there also have to be times when it is like taking candy from a baby.

Some interesting ones I picked out were Farmington at #4 vs the coaches at #6, but they can’t help (or hurt) unless they and Century or Owatonna upset their way to the finals. (The last time a Lakeville team wasn’t in the 1AA finals, 2005). STA at a 5 seed vs. your #2 in section with an offensively challenged Rosemount.

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Re: PageStat 2019-20

Post by BigTen » Wed Feb 19, 2020 11:18 am

Lee

Do you have updated Pagestat calculations for SOS and ratings thru 2/15/20 ?

Thanks!

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Re: PageStat 2019-20

Post by east hockey » Wed Feb 19, 2020 11:46 am

BigTen wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 11:18 am
Lee

Do you have updated Pagestat calculations for SOS and ratings thru 2/15/20 ?

Thanks!
http://minnhock.com/ps2020.htm

For this week, the ratings were run a day early, because there were a few section games on Saturday.

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Re: PageStat 2019-20

Post by east hockey » Thu Feb 20, 2020 4:30 pm

Four disagreements tonight

(5) St. Thomas Academy over (4) Eastview in 3AA quarterfinals
(5) Champlin Park over (4) Totino-Grace in 5AA quarterfinals
(5) Princeton over (4) St. Francis in 5A quarterfinals
(5) Detroit lakes over (4) Kittson Central in 8A quarterfinals

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