How the Ratings Program Works

  Simply stated, each team's rating can be thought of as the average rating of
all of their opponents plus their average goal differential in those games.

  The reality is a bit more complex as the goal differential considered for any one
game is limited to four, the average opponent rating is a weighted (by games played
against) average, and, since every team's rating is therefore dependent on all of their
opponents' ratings, a recursive algorithm is used which adjusts ratings based on 
scores until a minimum difference between expected goal differentials and actual 
goal differentials is reached.

  The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then 
adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative 
error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is 
reached (convergence).   One effect often noticed is that a team's rating can
change slightly without playing due to previous opponents playing which affects
their rating and their opponents rating, etc.

   The Rank column simply lists each team's rank, ranks are determined by
by which team has the highest Total.   The Total column is actually a
better indicator of where a team stands than the Rank column.  For example,
at the time of this writing it can be determined the team that is ranked 5th is actually 
as close in Total to 16th than they are to 3rd and therefore would find it easier
to slip down several spots than to move up two spots. 

   The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between 
any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a 
neutral site between those two teams.   It should be noted that due to goal
differential limits set in the ranking program these predicted goal differentials
are only accurate when comparing teams ranked within two goals of each other.
The differential between teams ranked farther apart becomes more and more
understated as the chosen teams become farther apart in the rankings. 

The >4 Column indicates the number of ignored games for each team against teams rated more 
than 4 goals higher or lower than them. As long as the actual margin of victory in such a game was 3 or more 
goals, it is ignored in determining team ratings. Ignoring these mismatches eliminates any effect they could have 
on the rankings. This feature has been included for several years in the high school rankings but not in the 
Midget AAA Rankings until 10/25/2007. 

  The GmPerf column shows the average goal differential for the team,
calculated using a maximum of +/- 4 for any one game and listed to the nearest
 .1 goals. 

  The Sched column is the weighted (by # games played against) average Total 
rating for all of that team's opponents and listed to the nearest  .1 goals. 

  The Total column is the sum of GmPerf and Sched, 
listed to the nearest  .01 goals.

  The most common misperception about these rankings is that the Sched rating is
an input.  It is actually an output.  The only input to the rankings program are game scores,
everything else is generated interdependently by the program.  Brute force recursion is the 'secret'
as all team Totals are adjusted based on game results until the smallest possible total additive
absolute error is reached (actual scores vs. expected scores based on ratings).  The Total is
actually calculated before and without the aid of the Sched and GmPerf values (they are merely
generated at the end as they are interesting components of the Total to look at for each team).

  A teams listed W-L-T record reflects only those games that have been 
reported and are in the scores database.   Apologies in advance for not being
able to accept scores that are not reported in the proper format. 

  It should be noted that these rankings are an average performance value
for each team for the entire season, all games are equally weighted, so a team's
latest game may make up only 1/70th of a teams rating at the end of the season.

  The Last10 column shows the average performance in the team's last ten games
(for teams that have at least 20 reported scores). 

  Games that go to shootouts for decision are considered ties for ratings purposes.