2003-04 Maryland/Virginia High School Hockey Rankings

Scores (for at least one of the states) through 2/06/04

  The accuracy of the ratings between states is open to some debate as it is dependent on the number of interstate scores that link the state rankings together.   The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then  adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative  error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is  reached (convergence).      The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between  any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a  neutral site between those two teams.  It should be noted that due to goal differential limits set in the ranking program these predicted goal differentials are only accurate when comparing teams ranked within three goals of each other. The differential between teams ranked farther apart becomes more and more understated as the chosen teams become farther apart in the rankings. A teams Total value only has meaning  in relation to other teams in the same list . The Last 5 column is a simple average performance of that team in the last five games based on current opponent Total values and goal differential (up to max allowed). Obviously, the fewer games a team's ranking is based upon the less likely that ranking is to be accurate.    * indicates teams with only two game scores used to calculate rating.  Links to other ratings: CT  IA  IL  IN  MA  MD  MD-VA  ME  MI  MN  MN-WI-ND  MO  ND  Northeast  NH  NJ  NY  WNY Club  OH  PA-E  PA-W  RI  VA  VT  WI  wWI  USA  New England Prep Midget Minor AAA Midget Major AAA Men's NCAA D1  Back to US HS Hockey Online main page. More information about how the ratings are calculated and their past accuracy can be found here . Receive email when this page changes

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RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Gonzaga,MD,_________________________ 16 2 0, 2.7, 8.8, 11.47, 11.80 2,Archbishop Spalding,MD,_____________ 12 2 2, 2.3, 8.7, 10.99, 10.89 3,Mt. St. Joseph,MD,__________________ 7 2 0, 1.9, 8.9, 10.82 4,Landon,MD,__________________________ 2 1 1, 1.5, 9.2, 10.73 5,Georgetown Prep,MD,_________________ 9 2 0, 2.3, 8.3, 10.55, 9.08 6,Langley,VA,_________________________ 9 4 0, 1.5, 8.7, 10.24, 9.62 7,DeMatha,MD,_________________________ 8 8 3, -0.1, 10.2, 10.09, 10.60 8,Stonebridge,VA,_____________________ 7 2 0, 2.1, 7.9, 9.97 9,Old Mill,MD,________________________ 6 1 0, 2.6, 7.1, 9.70 10,St. Marys,MD,_______________________ 7 3 2, 1.3, 8.2, 9.53, 10.30 11,Paint Branch,MD,____________________ 2 1 0, 2.3, 7.2, 9.51 12,Queen Anne,MD,______________________ 8 0 0, 2.4, 7.0, 9.40 13,Hylton,VA,__________________________ 7 1 1, 2.1, 7.1, 9.25 14,North Stafford,VA,__________________ 6 3 2, 1.4, 7.9, 9.24, 10.34 15,Westfield,VA,_______________________ 7 2 0, 1.8, 7.4, 9.20 16,Forest Park,VA,_____________________ 11 3 3, 1.1, 8.1, 9.17, 8.46 17,Loudon Cty/Loudon Vly/Heritage,VA,__ 6 3 0, 1.0, 8.0, 8.96 18,Churchill,MD,_______________________ 2 3 0, -0.6, 9.5, 8.93 19,St. Albans,MD,______________________ 2 5 0, -1.7, 10.6, 8.91 20,Calvert Hall,MD,____________________ 13 5 1, 1.3, 7.2, 8.46, 7.48 21,Mt. St. Joseph II,MD,_______________ 3 1 0, 2.3, 6.2, 8.44 22,Osbourn Park,VA,____________________ 6 2 1, 0.9, 7.4, 8.32 23,Broad Run,VA,_______________________ 6 3 0, 1.2, 7.0, 8.18 24,Sts. Stephen & Agnes,MD,____________ 2 2 0, 0.8, 7.4, 8.12 25,Howard,MD,__________________________ 7 0 0, 2.9, 5.2, 8.10 26,Fallston,MD,________________________ 2 2 0, 0.8, 7.3, 8.09 27,Loyola,MD,__________________________ 5 6 1, -0.2, 8.2, 8.07, 7.91 28,Robinson,VA,________________________ 6 4 1, 0.7, 7.3, 8.02, 8.43 29,Thomas Johnson,MD,__________________ 5 2 0, 2.1, 5.7, 7.82 30,Centreville,VA,_____________________ 6 4 0, 1.2, 6.6, 7.80, 9.06 31,Bethesda-Chevy Chase,MD,____________ 5 0 0, 4.0, 3.8, 7.80 32,Sherwood,MD,________________________ 0 4 2, -2.2, 9.9, 7.69 33,Bishop O'Connell,VA,________________ 0 4 1, -2.4, 10.1, 7.67 34,Walter Johnson,MD,__________________ 4 2 0, 0.5, 7.1, 7.56 35,Gilman,MD,__________________________ 7 3 1, 1.6, 5.9, 7.53, 7.80 36,South River,MD,_____________________ 4 5 0, 0.2, 7.2, 7.44 37,St. Pauls,MD,_______________________ 2 1 1, 0.5, 6.9, 7.43 38,Madison/Marshall,VA,________________ 4 4 1, 0.1, 7.2, 7.36 39,Yorktown/W&L,VA,____________________ 7 3 0, 1.4, 5.9, 7.34, 7.83 40,Osbourn,VA,_________________________ 4 5 1, 0.1, 7.1, 7.25, 7.93 41,Woodbridge,VA,______________________ 2 3 1, -0.5, 7.6, 7.09 42,Severna Park,MD,____________________ 10 7 1, 0.3, 6.8, 7.06, 8.36 43,Good Counsel,MD,____________________ 2 6 0, -1.6, 8.6, 7.01 44,Paul VI,VA,_________________________ 6 5 0, 0.0, 6.9, 6.85, 5.69 45,Brunswick,MD,_______________________ 6 1 2, 1.8, 5.0, 6.78 46,Bowie,MD,___________________________ 6 7 0, -0.7, 7.4, 6.76, 7.21 47,Hayfield,VA,________________________ 7 7 0, -0.1, 6.7, 6.64, 6.66 48,DeMatha II,MD,______________________ 6 9 4, -0.5, 7.0, 6.56, 7.28 49,Walkersville,MD,____________________ 3 1 1, 1.2, 5.1, 6.33 50,Easton,MD,__________________________ 2 2 1, 0.0, 6.2, 6.25 51,Sts. Peter & Paul,MD,_______________ 4 2 0, 0.5, 5.7, 6.22 52,Broadneck,MD,_______________________ 2 4 1, -1.1, 7.3, 6.18 53,River Hill,MD,______________________ 3 3 1, 0.4, 5.6, 6.03 54,Oakton,VA,__________________________ 2 6 0, -1.5, 7.5, 6.02 55,Chantilly,VA,_______________________ 4 7 0, -1.3, 7.2, 5.97, 6.21 56,Gonzaga II,MD,______________________ 6 6 2, 0.1, 5.9, 5.96, 6.15 57,Woodson,VA,_________________________ 2 7 1, -1.3, 7.2, 5.95, 6.09 58,Bishop Ireton,VA,___________________ 2 8 0, -1.5, 7.4, 5.92, 5.42 59,Wooton,MD,__________________________ 0 5 0, -3.8, 9.7, 5.91 60,West Springfield,VA,________________ 5 6 0, -1.0, 6.9, 5.86, 5.77 61,Atholton,MD,________________________ 3 3 1, 0.7, 5.1, 5.86 62,Ryken,MD,___________________________ 4 4 2, -0.1, 5.9, 5.76, 6.04 63,Southern,MD,________________________ 2 7 0, -2.1, 7.6, 5.48 64,Westlake,MD,________________________ 2 3 0, -0.8, 6.0, 5.18 65,McLean,VA,__________________________ 2 6 0, -2.1, 7.2, 5.03 66,Hammond,MD,_________________________ 3 2 0, -0.4, 5.4, 4.96 67,Potomac Falls,VA,___________________ 1 8 0, -2.1, 6.9, 4.79 68,Herndon,VA,_________________________ 1 9 0, -2.5, 7.3, 4.77, 4.08 69,Lake Braddock/Fairfax,VA,___________ 2 7 0, -1.2, 6.0, 4.74 70,Archbishop Curley,MD,_______________ 2 9 0, -2.0, 6.7, 4.73, 4.09 71,Liganore,MD,________________________ 0 4 1, -2.6, 7.1, 4.50 72,Boys Latin,MD,______________________ 2 6 0, -2.1, 6.6, 4.43 73,Walt Whitman,MD,____________________ 4 2 0, 1.3, 3.1, 4.43 74,Roosevelt,MD,_______________________ 1 6 0, -2.1, 6.5, 4.34 75,Centennial,MD,______________________ 2 4 1, -1.3, 5.4, 4.08 76,Wilde Lake,MD,______________________ 2 3 0, -0.8, 4.9, 4.05 77,Potomac/Garfield/Colonial Forge,VA,_ 1 6 0, -3.0, 7.0, 4.00 78,St. Johns,MD,_______________________ 0 9 0, -3.7, 7.6, 3.97 79,Long Reach,MD,______________________ 2 5 2, -1.1, 5.0, 3.87 80,Urbana,MD,__________________________ 1 5 1, -1.7, 5.5, 3.80 81,Gaithersburg,MD,____________________ 2 1 0, 1.3, 2.5, 3.79 82,Stonewall,VA,_______________________ 0 9 0, -3.8, 7.4, 3.65 83,Springbrook,MD,_____________________ 3 3 0, 1.0, 2.3, 3.29 84,Blake,MD,___________________________ 4 0 1, 1.6, 1.6, 3.25 85,Magruder,MD,________________________ 2 4 0, -1.3, 4.4, 3.06 86,Severn,MD,__________________________ 0 7 0, -3.6, 6.5, 2.96 87,Glenelg,MD,_________________________ 1 5 0, -2.0, 4.7, 2.73 88,Washington International,MD,________ 0 3 0, -4.0, 6.4, 2.36 89,Mt. Hebron,MD,______________________ 0 6 0, -3.8, 4.5, 0.68 90,Blair,MD,___________________________ 0 6 0, -3.7, 3.7, 0.00 91,Damascus,MD,________________________ 0 4 1, -2.6, 2.5, -0.07 92,Montgomery,MD,______________________ 0 3 1, -3.0, 2.6, -0.44 334 predicted correctly 47 predicted incorrectly Ties 28 Predict Pct 0.87664 The Goal Diff Limit is set at 4

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