Scores that ratings are based upon, sorted by team. Last Updated November 24, 2009. Previous Rankings New ratings will be posted each week, time permitting.
Maximum Goal Differential = 7 See Rankings Without Considering Goal Differential Below Division 1 RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,Lindenwood, _________________________ 22 0 0, 4.7, 9.5, 14.19, 13.92 2,Illinois, ___________________________ 16 3 0, 2.7, 9.4, 12.08, 13.09 3,Iowa State, _________________________ 13 4 3, 2.6, 9.3, 11.95, 12.20 4,Liberty, ____________________________ 17 2 0, 4.1, 7.4, 11.55, 11.19 5,Arizona State, ______________________ 14 2 1, 2.5, 8.4, 10.91, 9.71 6,Ohio, _______________________________ 19 2 0, 3.3, 7.5, 10.88, 11.33 7,Adrian, _____________________________ 14 4 1, 2.7, 7.9, 10.64, 10.74 8,Oakland, ____________________________ 15 4 0, 2.7, 8.0, 10.64, 12.98 9,Oklahoma, ___________________________ 9 6 1, 1.2, 9.4, 10.54, 9.34 10,Penn State, _________________________ 13 1 2, 3.4, 7.2, 10.54, 11.37 11,Central Oklahoma, ___________________ 14 6 1, 1.4, 8.9, 10.29, 11.13 12,Minot State, ________________________ 11 2 0, 3.8, 6.4, 10.28, 10.41 13,Michigan-Dearborn, __________________ 8 7 2, 1.1, 9.1, 10.15, 9.21 14,Rhode Island, _______________________ 12 5 1, 1.5, 8.3, 9.78, 8.42 15,Delaware, ___________________________ 12 5 0, 1.4, 8.1, 9.50, 9.06 16,Kent State, _________________________ 10 6 3, 0.8, 8.3, 9.13, 9.62 17,Western Michigan, ___________________ 5 11 0, -0.9, 10.0, 9.12, 9.50 18,Stony Brook, ________________________ 8 7 1, 1.1, 7.4, 8.47, 8.90 19,West Chester, _______________________ 7 7 2, 0.1, 8.1, 8.13, 9.46 20,Arizona, ____________________________ 4 8 1, -1.6, 9.7, 8.07, 9.10 21,Robert Morris Pennsylvania, _________ 12 6 0, 0.9, 7.1, 8.02, 8.08 22,Robert Morris Illinois, _____________ 4 16 0, -2.5, 10.1, 7.62, 6.59 23,Canton, _____________________________ 9 8 0, 1.3, 6.1, 7.37, 6.46 24,Indiana, ____________________________ 6 14 0, -1.9, 9.2, 7.31, 6.52 25,Washington & Jefferson, _____________ 6 6 4, 0.1, 7.1, 7.22, 7.30 26,Indiana Pennsylvania, _______________ 8 5 0, 1.6, 5.5, 7.07, 6.13 27,West Virginia, ______________________ 8 6 1, 0.8, 6.2, 6.96, 7.90 28,Eastern Michigan, ___________________ 6 12 0, -3.2, 9.9, 6.76, 4.77 29,Buffalo, ____________________________ 9 7 0, 0.5, 6.0, 6.52, 6.87 30,Mercyhurst, _________________________ 5 15 0, -1.9, 8.0, 6.17, 6.26 31,Slippery Rock, ______________________ 11 4 1, 1.9, 4.2, 6.15, 5.12 32,Pittsburgh, _________________________ 4 13 1, -1.6, 7.5, 5.88, 6.49 33,Rutgers, ____________________________ 10 8 1, 0.6, 5.1, 5.73, 6.10 34,Duquesne, ___________________________ 4 11 1, -1.9, 7.5, 5.53, 5.43 35,Niagara, ____________________________ 9 9 0, 0.6, 5.0, 5.52, 6.31 36,Youngstown State, ___________________ 7 11 1, -1.2, 6.7, 5.50, 5.13 37,Navy, _______________________________ 5 14 1, -2.0, 7.4, 5.44, 4.44 38,Drexel, _____________________________ 6 11 0, -1.6, 7.0, 5.44, 4.53 39,Towson, _____________________________ 6 12 0, -1.6, 6.9, 5.24, 5.89 40,Lehigh, _____________________________ 6 8 1, 0.1, 4.8, 4.92, 5.46 41,Cornell, ____________________________ 10 3 0, 2.2, 2.6, 4.79, 2.99 42,Scranton, ___________________________ 4 6 2, -0.7, 5.0, 4.30, 5.87 43,North Dakota State, _________________ 3 7 1, -2.7, 6.9, 4.21, 4.17 44,Binghamton, _________________________ 8 4 0, 2.2, 1.9, 4.20, 3.73 45,John Carroll, _______________________ 4 12 0, -2.6, 6.5, 3.91, 5.44 46,Villanova, __________________________ 4 7 2, -1.1, 4.2, 3.12, 2.74 47,Cortland State, _____________________ 7 2 1, 0.9, 2.2, 3.05, 5.31 48,Syracuse, ___________________________ 4 12 0, -2.1, 4.9, 2.81, 2.03 49,Oswego State, _______________________ 8 6 1, 0.1, 2.6, 2.70, 2.62 50,Maryland, ___________________________ 4 7 0, -2.2, 4.4, 2.23, 1.03 51,Penn State Berks, ___________________ 3 8 2, -2.4, 4.3, 1.90, 1.69 52,Rochester, __________________________ 4 10 0, -2.6, 4.0, 1.36, 1.36 53,Rochester Inst of Tech, _____________ 2 17 0, -3.6, 4.8, 1.26, 0.37 54,Ithaca, _____________________________ 2 11 0, -3.5, 3.6, 0.11, -1.25 55,Saint Bonaventure, __________________ 1 8 1, -3.5, 3.5, 0.02, -0.25 Maximum Goal Differential = 1 (i.e. just considers W, L, T and schedule strength) Division 1 RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,Lindenwood, _________________________ 22 0 0, 1.0, 7.5, 8.55, 8.18 2,Illinois, ___________________________ 16 3 0, 0.7, 7.5, 8.13, 8.50 3,Arizona State, ______________________ 14 2 1, 0.7, 7.4, 8.06, 7.71 4,Iowa State, _________________________ 13 4 3, 0.5, 7.6, 8.03, 8.36 5,Ohio, _______________________________ 19 2 0, 0.8, 7.1, 7.96, 8.27 6,Liberty, ____________________________ 17 2 0, 0.8, 7.1, 7.90, 7.84 7,Central Oklahoma, ___________________ 14 6 1, 0.4, 7.4, 7.82, 7.68 8,Penn State, _________________________ 13 1 2, 0.8, 7.1, 7.80, 7.85 9,Oakland, ____________________________ 15 4 0, 0.6, 7.2, 7.79, 8.61 10,Oklahoma, ___________________________ 9 6 1, 0.2, 7.5, 7.71, 7.50 11,Minot State, ________________________ 11 2 0, 0.7, 7.0, 7.69, 7.64 12,Adrian, _____________________________ 14 4 1, 0.5, 7.2, 7.69, 7.67 13,Rhode Island, _______________________ 12 5 1, 0.4, 7.3, 7.69, 7.36 14,Delaware, ___________________________ 12 5 0, 0.4, 7.2, 7.65, 7.54 15,Michigan-Dearborn, __________________ 8 7 2, 0.1, 7.4, 7.48, 7.11 16,Kent State, _________________________ 10 6 3, 0.2, 7.2, 7.38, 7.57 17,Western Michigan, ___________________ 5 11 0, -0.4, 7.7, 7.29, 7.33 18,Robert Morris Pennsylvania, _________ 12 6 0, 0.3, 6.9, 7.27, 7.48 19,Arizona, ____________________________ 4 8 1, -0.3, 7.6, 7.27, 7.50 20,West Chester, _______________________ 7 7 2, 0.0, 7.3, 7.26, 7.26 21,Eastern Michigan, ___________________ 6 12 0, -0.3, 7.5, 7.21, 6.96 22,Stony Brook, ________________________ 8 7 1, 0.1, 7.1, 7.12, 6.98 23,Robert Morris Illinois, _____________ 4 16 0, -0.6, 7.7, 7.06, 6.79 24,Indiana, ____________________________ 6 14 0, -0.4, 7.4, 7.05, 7.00 25,Washington & Jefferson, _____________ 6 6 4, 0.0, 6.9, 6.95, 6.99 26,West Virginia, ______________________ 8 6 1, 0.1, 6.8, 6.95, 7.21 27,Indiana Pennsylvania, _______________ 8 5 0, 0.2, 6.6, 6.83, 6.35 28,North Dakota State, _________________ 3 7 1, -0.4, 7.2, 6.82, 6.89 29,Canton, _____________________________ 9 8 0, 0.1, 6.7, 6.77, 6.74 30,Rutgers, ____________________________ 10 8 1, 0.1, 6.7, 6.76, 6.75 31,Buffalo, ____________________________ 9 7 0, 0.1, 6.6, 6.76, 6.87 32,Slippery Rock, ______________________ 11 4 1, 0.4, 6.3, 6.76, 6.61 33,Drexel, _____________________________ 6 11 0, -0.3, 7.0, 6.71, 6.88 34,Cornell, ____________________________ 10 3 0, 0.5, 6.2, 6.70, 6.30 35,Mercyhurst, _________________________ 5 15 0, -0.5, 7.2, 6.70, 6.83 36,Duquesne, ___________________________ 4 11 1, -0.4, 7.1, 6.66, 6.47 37,Towson, _____________________________ 6 12 0, -0.3, 7.0, 6.63, 6.74 38,Navy, _______________________________ 5 14 1, -0.5, 7.1, 6.62, 6.64 39,Youngstown State, ___________________ 7 11 1, -0.2, 6.8, 6.61, 6.57 40,Cortland State, _____________________ 7 2 1, 0.5, 6.1, 6.56, 7.01 41,Pittsburgh, _________________________ 4 13 1, -0.5, 7.0, 6.51, 6.56 42,Niagara, ____________________________ 9 9 0, 0.0, 6.5, 6.49, 6.46 43,Binghamton, _________________________ 8 4 0, 0.3, 6.1, 6.45, 6.22 44,Oswego State, _______________________ 8 6 1, 0.1, 6.2, 6.32, 6.22 45,Lehigh, _____________________________ 6 8 1, -0.1, 6.4, 6.31, 6.53 46,Scranton, ___________________________ 4 6 2, -0.2, 6.5, 6.31, 6.73 47,John Carroll, _______________________ 4 12 0, -0.5, 6.8, 6.29, 6.54 48,Maryland, ___________________________ 4 7 0, -0.3, 6.5, 6.25, 5.88 49,Villanova, __________________________ 4 7 2, -0.2, 6.4, 6.20, 6.18 50,Penn State Berks, ___________________ 3 8 2, -0.4, 6.6, 6.19, 6.27 51,Syracuse, ___________________________ 4 12 0, -0.5, 6.5, 6.01, 5.88 52,Rochester, __________________________ 4 10 0, -0.4, 6.3, 5.87, 6.15 53,Saint Bonaventure, __________________ 1 8 1, -0.7, 6.4, 5.70, 5.83 54,Ithaca, _____________________________ 2 11 0, -0.7, 6.4, 5.69, 5.43 55,Rochester Inst of Tech, _____________ 2 17 0, -0.8, 6.5, 5.67, 5.67 The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is reached (convergence). One effect often noticed is that a team's rating can change slightly without playing due to previous opponents playing which affects their rating and their opponent's rating, etc. The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a neutral site between those two teams. It should be noted that these rankings are an average performance value for each team for the entire season, all games are equally weighted, so a team's latest game may make up only 1/40th of a teams rating at the end of the season. Games that go to shootouts for decision are considered ties for ratings purposes. Actually, there are two different rankings listed below. The first is as described above with the maximum goal differential used per game set at 7. This ordering ends up similar to CCHP, although differences do arise due to CCHP considering home ice advantage and CCHP not using a goal differential limit. The second ranking sets maximum goal differential at 1, thereby just considering whether the game was won, lost, or tied (and strength of opponent). Note that the Total column in the GD=1 ranking is therefore in win percentage units rather than goal units. A rated .01 ahead of B can be interpreted as saying that if these two teams played exclusively against each other, A's predicted winning percentage is 1 percentage point higher than B's (i.e. A's predicted winning percentage vs. B would be .495, B's against A would be .505). However, since the teams do not play exclusively against the other it is actually a little bit more complex than above as teams can be ranked as high as 1.0 above their average opponent (if they were undefeated and untied) and as low as 1.0 below their average opponent (if they lost all of their games). Note that the current spread between #1 and #59 is about 1.9 . Not surprisingly, the ordering ends up very similar to KRACH . Currently, teams with as few as 3 scores are ranked. The more games that go into a team's ranking, the more accurate their ranking will be.Please send any missing scores or corrections to iascores@yahoo.com using the score submission spreadsheet.
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