Scores (sorted by team) through January 19, 2014 courtesy of USCHO.com . Previous Rankings New ratings will be posted each week, time permitting. Maximum Goal Differential = 4 See Rankings Without Considering Goal Differential Below RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Minnesota,_________________________ 17 2 3, 1.6, 7.4, 9.06, 8.96 2,Boston College,____________________ 16 4 3, 1.6, 7.3, 8.88, 9.69 3,Notre Dame,________________________ 14 8 1, 1.2, 7.3, 8.49, 8.96 4,Quinnipiac,________________________ 18 4 5, 1.4, 7.0, 8.44, 8.51 5,Union,_____________________________ 15 4 3, 1.3, 7.1, 8.41, 8.82 6,Providence,________________________ 14 5 5, 1.0, 7.1, 8.12, 7.13 7,St Cloud State,____________________ 12 4 4, 0.8, 7.1, 7.99, 7.54 8,Maine,_____________________________ 11 8 3, 0.8, 7.2, 7.99, 7.71 9,New Hampshire,_____________________ 13 12 1, 0.5, 7.5, 7.96, 8.31 10,Vermont,___________________________ 12 8 3, 0.5, 7.4, 7.96, 8.15 11,Ferris State,______________________ 17 5 3, 1.0, 7.0, 7.91, 6.05 12,Massachusetts-Lowell,______________ 15 6 2, 0.8, 7.1, 7.89, 7.33 13,Northeastern,______________________ 14 7 3, 0.5, 7.3, 7.80, 8.34 14,Yale,______________________________ 9 4 4, 0.9, 6.8, 7.77, 8.56 15,Cornell,___________________________ 9 4 4, 0.6, 7.2, 7.77, 7.96 16,Miami,_____________________________ 9 10 3, 0.4, 7.3, 7.71, 6.63 17,Wisconsin,_________________________ 13 6 1, 0.7, 7.0, 7.67, 8.00 18,Minnesota-Duluth,__________________ 9 9 2, 0.1, 7.6, 7.64, 8.01 19,Western Michigan,__________________ 12 8 4, 0.3, 7.3, 7.61, 8.49 20,Ohio State,________________________ 11 8 1, 0.7, 6.9, 7.60, 8.27 21,Michigan,__________________________ 10 6 2, 0.3, 7.3, 7.58, 5.75 22,Denver,____________________________ 12 7 5, 0.5, 7.0, 7.53, 7.91 23,Bowling Green,_____________________ 12 9 5, 0.4, 7.0, 7.45, 8.13 24,Minnesota State,___________________ 14 10 0, 0.3, 7.1, 7.43, 8.16 25,North Dakota,______________________ 12 7 3, 0.1, 7.2, 7.37, 7.96 26,Colgate,___________________________ 11 9 3, -0.1, 7.4, 7.35, 9.48 27,Brown,_____________________________ 7 7 3, 0.0, 7.3, 7.28, 7.92 28,Nebraska-Omaha,____________________ 9 11 2, -0.2, 7.4, 7.19, 7.33 29,Clarkson,__________________________ 15 7 2, 0.2, 6.9, 7.15, 6.97 30,Rensselaer,________________________ 8 10 4, -0.0, 7.2, 7.14, 5.14 31,Harvard,___________________________ 5 10 3, -0.3, 7.4, 7.11, 6.78 32,Alaska,____________________________ 9 11 4, -0.1, 7.2, 7.06, 6.27 33,St Lawrence,_______________________ 8 12 2, -0.3, 7.4, 7.05, 5.42 34,Lake Superior,_____________________ 11 12 1, -0.3, 7.3, 7.03, 5.35 35,Northern Michigan,_________________ 9 11 2, -0.1, 7.1, 7.01, 7.65 36,Michigan Tech,_____________________ 7 13 6, -0.3, 7.3, 7.01, 6.90 37,Alaska-Anchorage,__________________ 12 9 3, 0.0, 6.9, 6.95, 7.48 38,Merrimack,_________________________ 6 11 3, -0.5, 7.4, 6.94, 8.26 39,Bemidji State,_____________________ 7 12 7, -0.4, 7.3, 6.89, 7.37 40,Michigan State,____________________ 8 10 3, -0.0, 6.9, 6.88, 7.85 41,Bentley,___________________________ 12 8 3, 0.8, 6.0, 6.82, 7.15 42,Massachusetts,_____________________ 6 15 3, -0.9, 7.7, 6.76, 5.88 43,Boston University,_________________ 7 13 2, -0.8, 7.4, 6.55, 5.05 44,Air Force,_________________________ 14 6 4, 0.6, 5.9, 6.54, 6.68 45,Mercyhurst,________________________ 13 9 4, 0.3, 6.1, 6.47, 6.37 46,Dartmouth,_________________________ 3 13 3, -1.1, 7.4, 6.37, 6.92 47,Colorado College,__________________ 2 16 4, -1.5, 7.6, 6.01, 5.85 48,Connecticut,_______________________ 10 7 4, 0.0, 5.9, 5.94, 6.76 49,Princeton,_________________________ 4 15 0, -1.8, 7.5, 5.76, 5.73 50,Penn State,________________________ 4 14 1, -1.4, 7.1, 5.73, 5.75 51,Canisius,__________________________ 8 12 2, -0.5, 6.2, 5.67, 5.59 52,Robert Morris,_____________________ 6 13 3, -0.4, 6.0, 5.66, 5.93 53,RIT,_______________________________ 8 11 3, -0.4, 5.9, 5.52, 4.30 54,Holy Cross,________________________ 6 15 2, -0.9, 6.4, 5.51, 5.27 55,Niagara,___________________________ 5 14 3, -0.8, 6.2, 5.37, 5.25 56,Alabama-Huntsville,________________ 1 24 1, -2.6, 7.5, 4.93, 4.87 57,American International,____________ 6 15 1, -1.6, 6.3, 4.69, 5.36 58,Sacred Heart,______________________ 6 18 0, -1.6, 6.0, 4.40, 4.62 59,Army,______________________________ 3 18 0, -2.0, 6.0, 3.95, 3.92 Maximum Goal Differential = 1 (i.e. just considers W, L, T and schedule strength) RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Minnesota,_________________________ 17 2 3, 0.7, 7.1, 7.81, 7.85 2,Boston College,____________________ 16 4 3, 0.5, 7.1, 7.60, 7.96 3,Union,_____________________________ 15 4 3, 0.5, 7.0, 7.51, 7.59 4,Ferris State,______________________ 17 5 3, 0.5, 7.0, 7.49, 6.93 5,Quinnipiac,________________________ 18 4 5, 0.5, 7.0, 7.48, 7.42 6,St Cloud State,____________________ 12 4 4, 0.4, 7.1, 7.48, 7.09 7,Massachusetts-Lowell,______________ 15 6 2, 0.4, 7.0, 7.41, 7.38 8,Providence,________________________ 14 5 5, 0.4, 7.0, 7.37, 6.81 9,Notre Dame,________________________ 14 8 1, 0.3, 7.1, 7.36, 7.49 10,Wisconsin,_________________________ 13 6 1, 0.3, 7.0, 7.36, 7.65 11,Northeastern,______________________ 14 7 3, 0.3, 7.1, 7.35, 7.84 12,Cornell,___________________________ 9 4 4, 0.3, 7.0, 7.32, 7.42 13,Michigan,__________________________ 10 6 2, 0.2, 7.1, 7.30, 6.47 14,Vermont,___________________________ 12 8 3, 0.2, 7.1, 7.30, 7.23 15,North Dakota,______________________ 12 7 3, 0.2, 7.1, 7.29, 7.63 16,Clarkson,__________________________ 15 7 2, 0.3, 7.0, 7.29, 7.30 17,Minnesota State,___________________ 14 10 0, 0.2, 7.1, 7.28, 7.46 18,Western Michigan,__________________ 12 8 4, 0.2, 7.1, 7.26, 8.01 19,Colgate,___________________________ 11 9 3, 0.1, 7.2, 7.26, 8.01 20,Yale,______________________________ 9 4 4, 0.3, 6.9, 7.23, 7.36 21,New Hampshire,_____________________ 13 12 1, 0.0, 7.2, 7.21, 7.33 22,Minnesota-Duluth,__________________ 9 9 2, 0.0, 7.2, 7.20, 7.54 23,Denver,____________________________ 12 7 5, 0.2, 7.0, 7.20, 7.49 24,Maine,_____________________________ 11 8 3, 0.1, 7.0, 7.18, 7.13 25,Bowling Green,_____________________ 12 9 5, 0.1, 7.1, 7.17, 7.42 26,Alaska-Anchorage,__________________ 12 9 3, 0.1, 7.0, 7.14, 7.33 27,Ohio State,________________________ 11 8 1, 0.1, 7.0, 7.10, 7.25 28,Miami,_____________________________ 9 10 3, -0.0, 7.1, 7.10, 6.75 29,Brown,_____________________________ 7 7 3, 0.0, 7.1, 7.09, 7.33 30,Lake Superior,_____________________ 11 12 1, -0.0, 7.1, 7.05, 6.11 31,Alaska,____________________________ 9 11 4, -0.1, 7.1, 7.03, 6.72 32,Nebraska-Omaha,____________________ 9 11 2, -0.1, 7.1, 7.01, 6.76 33,Northern Michigan,_________________ 9 11 2, -0.1, 7.1, 7.00, 7.25 34,St Lawrence,_______________________ 8 12 2, -0.2, 7.2, 6.98, 6.24 35,Rensselaer,________________________ 8 10 4, -0.1, 7.1, 6.97, 6.51 36,Bemidji State,_____________________ 7 12 7, -0.2, 7.2, 6.96, 7.14 37,Air Force,_________________________ 14 6 4, 0.3, 6.6, 6.94, 7.09 38,Michigan Tech,_____________________ 7 13 6, -0.2, 7.1, 6.90, 6.67 39,Merrimack,_________________________ 6 11 3, -0.3, 7.1, 6.89, 7.38 40,Michigan State,____________________ 8 10 3, -0.1, 7.0, 6.88, 7.31 41,Harvard,___________________________ 5 10 3, -0.3, 7.1, 6.86, 6.82 42,Mercyhurst,________________________ 13 9 4, 0.2, 6.7, 6.85, 7.04 43,Boston University,_________________ 7 13 2, -0.3, 7.1, 6.82, 6.13 44,Massachusetts,_____________________ 6 15 3, -0.4, 7.2, 6.82, 6.22 45,Bentley,___________________________ 12 8 3, 0.2, 6.6, 6.80, 6.88 46,Connecticut,_______________________ 10 7 4, 0.1, 6.6, 6.74, 6.78 47,Dartmouth,_________________________ 3 13 3, -0.5, 7.1, 6.62, 6.98 48,Colorado College,__________________ 2 16 4, -0.6, 7.2, 6.61, 6.48 49,Princeton,_________________________ 4 15 0, -0.6, 7.1, 6.56, 6.57 50,Penn State,________________________ 4 14 1, -0.5, 7.1, 6.53, 6.40 51,RIT,_______________________________ 8 11 3, -0.1, 6.7, 6.52, 6.24 52,Canisius,__________________________ 8 12 2, -0.2, 6.7, 6.51, 6.46 53,Holy Cross,________________________ 6 15 2, -0.4, 6.8, 6.39, 6.37 54,Alabama-Huntsville,________________ 1 24 1, -0.9, 7.2, 6.36, 6.44 55,Robert Morris,_____________________ 6 13 3, -0.3, 6.7, 6.34, 6.85 56,Niagara,___________________________ 5 14 3, -0.4, 6.7, 6.32, 6.24 57,American International,____________ 6 15 1, -0.4, 6.7, 6.30, 6.43 58,Sacred Heart,______________________ 6 18 0, -0.5, 6.7, 6.15, 6.05 59,Army,______________________________ 3 18 0, -0.7, 6.6, 5.92, 5.76 The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is reached (convergence). One effect often noticed is that a team's rating can change slightly without playing due to previous opponents playing which affects their rating and their opponent's rating, etc. The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a neutral site between those two teams. It should be noted that these rankings are an average performance value for each team for the entire season, all games are equally weighted, so a team's latest game may make up only 1/40th of a teams rating at the end of the season. Games that go to shootouts for decision are considered ties for ratings purposes. Actually, there are two different rankings listed. The first is as described above with the maximum goal differential used per game set at 4. This ordering ends up similar to CCHP, although differences do arise due to CCHP considering home ice advantage and CCHP not using a goal differential limit. The second ranking sets maximum goal differential at 1, thereby just considering whether the game was won, lost, or tied (and strength of opponent). This was done because the NCAA has indicated that it does not want to consider goal differential in the selection process. Note that the Total column in the GD=1 ranking is therefore in win percentage units rather than goal units. A rated .01 ahead of B can be interpreted as saying that if these two teams played exclusively against each other, A's predicted winning percentage is 1 percentage point higher than B's (i.e. A's predicted winning percentage vs. B would be .495, B's against A would be .505). However, since the teams do not play exclusively against the other it is actually a little bit more complex than above as teams can be ranked as high as 1.0 above their average opponent (if they were undefeated and untied) and as low as 1.0 below their average opponent (if they lost all of their games). Not surprisingly, the ordering ends up very similar to KRACH . Links to other ratings: High School Rankings for 25 States High School National Rankings New England Prep Midget Minor AAA Midget Major AAA Men's NCAA D1 USHL NAHL ACHA College Club USHSHO.com High School Ice Hockey Forums
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