Scores (sorted by team) through February 2, 2014 courtesy of USCHO.com . Previous Rankings New ratings will be posted each week, time permitting. Maximum Goal Differential = 4 See Rankings Without Considering Goal Differential Below RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Minnesota,_________________________ 19 2 5, 1.5, 7.4, 8.97, 8.70 2,Boston College,____________________ 19 4 3, 1.6, 7.3, 8.88, 9.39 3,Quinnipiac,________________________ 19 4 5, 1.5, 7.0, 8.51, 8.99 4,Union,_____________________________ 17 6 3, 1.1, 7.1, 8.20, 7.74 5,Massachusetts-Lowell,______________ 18 7 2, 1.0, 7.1, 8.17, 9.34 6,Notre Dame,________________________ 15 11 1, 0.8, 7.4, 8.17, 6.98 7,New Hampshire,_____________________ 16 13 1, 0.5, 7.6, 8.15, 8.54 8,Maine,_____________________________ 12 9 3, 0.8, 7.3, 8.08, 8.19 9,Providence,________________________ 15 7 5, 0.7, 7.2, 7.93, 7.29 10,Yale,______________________________ 11 6 4, 1.0, 7.0, 7.91, 8.59 11,Vermont,___________________________ 13 9 3, 0.6, 7.3, 7.91, 7.82 12,Ferris State,______________________ 18 6 3, 1.0, 6.9, 7.89, 6.80 13,Minnesota-Duluth,__________________ 12 9 3, 0.3, 7.6, 7.89, 8.93 14,Cornell,___________________________ 12 4 5, 0.6, 7.3, 7.88, 7.77 15,St Cloud State,____________________ 14 6 4, 0.7, 7.2, 7.86, 7.25 16,Michigan,__________________________ 13 6 3, 0.5, 7.4, 7.86, 8.14 17,Northeastern,______________________ 15 8 3, 0.5, 7.3, 7.82, 8.47 18,Ohio State,________________________ 14 9 1, 0.8, 7.0, 7.81, 8.10 19,Miami,_____________________________ 10 11 3, 0.4, 7.2, 7.61, 6.04 20,Wisconsin,_________________________ 14 8 2, 0.5, 7.1, 7.59, 7.84 21,Denver,____________________________ 13 8 5, 0.5, 7.0, 7.54, 8.66 22,Western Michigan,__________________ 12 10 4, 0.1, 7.3, 7.43, 7.22 23,Brown,_____________________________ 9 9 3, 0.0, 7.4, 7.39, 7.45 24,North Dakota,______________________ 13 8 3, 0.1, 7.3, 7.34, 7.38 25,Nebraska-Omaha,____________________ 10 12 2, -0.2, 7.5, 7.29, 8.17 26,Colgate,___________________________ 13 11 3, -0.1, 7.4, 7.29, 7.53 27,Minnesota State,___________________ 15 13 0, 0.2, 7.1, 7.28, 7.31 28,Bowling Green,_____________________ 13 12 5, 0.3, 7.0, 7.28, 6.65 29,Clarkson,__________________________ 16 10 2, 0.2, 7.1, 7.25, 7.79 30,Rensselaer,________________________ 11 11 4, 0.0, 7.2, 7.19, 6.85 31,Michigan Tech,_____________________ 10 14 6, -0.2, 7.3, 7.14, 7.85 32,Harvard,___________________________ 6 11 3, -0.3, 7.4, 7.13, 6.01 33,Alaska,____________________________ 12 12 4, 0.1, 6.9, 7.08, 7.61 34,St Lawrence,_______________________ 9 14 3, -0.4, 7.4, 6.99, 6.49 35,Michigan State,____________________ 8 13 4, -0.2, 7.2, 6.97, 7.07 36,Lake Superior,_____________________ 12 13 1, -0.3, 7.3, 6.95, 5.75 37,Northern Michigan,_________________ 11 13 2, -0.1, 7.1, 6.95, 6.67 38,Bemidji State,_____________________ 8 13 7, -0.3, 7.2, 6.87, 7.36 39,Alaska-Anchorage,__________________ 13 10 3, 0.0, 6.8, 6.86, 7.11 40,Massachusetts,_____________________ 7 16 4, -0.7, 7.6, 6.85, 6.49 41,Bentley,___________________________ 13 9 4, 0.7, 6.1, 6.74, 6.44 42,Merrimack,_________________________ 7 15 3, -0.8, 7.4, 6.64, 5.58 43,Boston University,_________________ 8 14 3, -0.8, 7.4, 6.59, 6.74 44,Mercyhurst,________________________ 15 10 5, 0.4, 6.2, 6.53, 6.60 45,Air Force,_________________________ 15 9 4, 0.4, 5.9, 6.32, 5.67 46,Dartmouth,_________________________ 4 15 3, -1.1, 7.4, 6.30, 5.92 47,Colorado College,__________________ 3 17 4, -1.5, 7.6, 6.10, 6.48 48,Connecticut,_______________________ 13 8 4, 0.1, 5.9, 5.98, 6.15 49,Robert Morris,_____________________ 10 13 3, 0.1, 5.9, 5.96, 7.63 50,Canisius,__________________________ 10 14 2, -0.4, 6.2, 5.77, 6.27 51,Princeton,_________________________ 4 17 0, -1.8, 7.5, 5.75, 6.19 52,Penn State,________________________ 4 17 1, -1.5, 7.2, 5.69, 5.29 53,Niagara,___________________________ 8 15 3, -0.3, 6.0, 5.67, 6.58 54,Holy Cross,________________________ 7 16 3, -0.8, 6.4, 5.59, 6.30 55,RIT,_______________________________ 8 14 4, -0.7, 5.9, 5.22, 3.67 56,American International,____________ 7 18 1, -1.5, 6.3, 4.79, 4.69 57,Alabama-Huntsville,________________ 1 26 1, -2.7, 7.4, 4.68, 4.21 58,Sacred Heart,______________________ 7 19 0, -1.6, 6.0, 4.43, 4.55 59,Army,______________________________ 3 20 0, -2.1, 5.9, 3.85, 3.14 Maximum Goal Differential = 1 (i.e. just considers W, L, T and schedule strength) RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Minnesota,_________________________ 19 2 5, 0.7, 7.1, 7.79, 7.75 2,Boston College,____________________ 19 4 3, 0.6, 7.1, 7.64, 7.94 3,Quinnipiac,________________________ 19 4 5, 0.5, 7.0, 7.49, 7.56 4,Union,_____________________________ 17 6 3, 0.4, 7.0, 7.44, 7.29 5,Ferris State,______________________ 18 6 3, 0.4, 7.0, 7.44, 6.87 6,Cornell,___________________________ 12 4 5, 0.4, 7.1, 7.44, 7.63 7,St Cloud State,____________________ 14 6 4, 0.3, 7.1, 7.44, 7.07 8,Massachusetts-Lowell,______________ 18 7 2, 0.4, 7.0, 7.43, 7.64 9,Michigan,__________________________ 13 6 3, 0.3, 7.1, 7.43, 7.54 10,Minnesota-Duluth,__________________ 12 9 3, 0.1, 7.2, 7.36, 7.92 11,Providence,________________________ 15 7 5, 0.3, 7.0, 7.34, 7.16 12,Northeastern,______________________ 15 8 3, 0.3, 7.1, 7.33, 7.50 13,Wisconsin,_________________________ 14 8 2, 0.3, 7.1, 7.31, 7.33 14,New Hampshire,_____________________ 16 13 1, 0.1, 7.2, 7.30, 7.48 15,North Dakota,______________________ 13 8 3, 0.2, 7.1, 7.30, 7.39 16,Notre Dame,________________________ 15 11 1, 0.1, 7.1, 7.28, 7.06 17,Vermont,___________________________ 13 9 3, 0.2, 7.1, 7.25, 6.92 18,Clarkson,__________________________ 16 10 2, 0.2, 7.0, 7.22, 7.06 19,Yale,______________________________ 11 6 4, 0.2, 7.0, 7.22, 7.38 20,Colgate,___________________________ 13 11 3, 0.1, 7.1, 7.22, 7.29 21,Denver,____________________________ 13 8 5, 0.2, 7.0, 7.22, 7.75 22,Western Michigan,__________________ 12 10 4, 0.1, 7.1, 7.20, 7.33 23,Maine,_____________________________ 12 9 3, 0.1, 7.1, 7.19, 7.31 24,Ohio State,________________________ 14 9 1, 0.2, 7.0, 7.18, 7.28 25,Minnesota State,___________________ 15 13 0, 0.1, 7.1, 7.17, 7.05 26,Brown,_____________________________ 9 9 3, 0.0, 7.1, 7.13, 7.07 27,Alaska-Anchorage,__________________ 13 10 3, 0.1, 7.0, 7.09, 7.15 28,Nebraska-Omaha,____________________ 10 12 2, -0.1, 7.2, 7.09, 7.27 29,Rensselaer,________________________ 11 11 4, 0.0, 7.1, 7.07, 7.35 30,Miami,_____________________________ 10 11 3, -0.0, 7.1, 7.07, 6.54 31,Bowling Green,_____________________ 13 12 5, 0.0, 7.0, 7.07, 6.63 32,Lake Superior,_____________________ 12 13 1, -0.0, 7.1, 7.05, 6.53 33,Alaska,____________________________ 12 12 4, 0.0, 7.0, 7.02, 7.29 34,Michigan Tech,_____________________ 10 14 6, -0.1, 7.1, 7.01, 7.49 35,Northern Michigan,_________________ 11 13 2, -0.1, 7.1, 7.00, 6.91 36,St Lawrence,_______________________ 9 14 3, -0.2, 7.2, 6.97, 6.88 37,Bemidji State,_____________________ 8 13 7, -0.2, 7.1, 6.94, 7.14 38,Michigan State,____________________ 8 13 4, -0.2, 7.1, 6.89, 6.99 39,Harvard,___________________________ 6 11 3, -0.3, 7.1, 6.88, 6.57 40,Boston University,_________________ 8 14 3, -0.2, 7.1, 6.87, 6.88 41,Mercyhurst,________________________ 15 10 5, 0.2, 6.7, 6.87, 6.89 42,Air Force,_________________________ 15 9 4, 0.2, 6.6, 6.83, 6.35 43,Massachusetts,_____________________ 7 16 4, -0.3, 7.2, 6.83, 6.43 44,Merrimack,_________________________ 7 15 3, -0.3, 7.1, 6.82, 6.63 45,Bentley,___________________________ 13 9 4, 0.2, 6.6, 6.80, 6.84 46,Connecticut,_______________________ 13 8 4, 0.2, 6.6, 6.79, 7.02 47,Colorado College,__________________ 3 17 4, -0.6, 7.2, 6.65, 6.82 48,Dartmouth,_________________________ 4 15 3, -0.5, 7.1, 6.63, 6.74 49,Canisius,__________________________ 10 14 2, -0.2, 6.7, 6.53, 6.62 50,Princeton,_________________________ 4 17 0, -0.6, 7.1, 6.50, 6.46 51,Robert Morris,_____________________ 10 13 3, -0.1, 6.6, 6.50, 7.34 52,Penn State,________________________ 4 17 1, -0.6, 7.1, 6.49, 6.16 53,Holy Cross,________________________ 7 16 3, -0.3, 6.8, 6.42, 6.88 54,Niagara,___________________________ 8 15 3, -0.3, 6.7, 6.40, 6.51 55,RIT,_______________________________ 8 14 4, -0.2, 6.6, 6.39, 5.91 56,American International,____________ 7 18 1, -0.4, 6.7, 6.29, 6.03 57,Alabama-Huntsville,________________ 1 26 1, -0.9, 7.2, 6.28, 6.30 58,Sacred Heart,______________________ 7 19 0, -0.5, 6.6, 6.17, 6.40 59,Army,______________________________ 3 20 0, -0.7, 6.6, 5.88, 5.52 The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is reached (convergence). One effect often noticed is that a team's rating can change slightly without playing due to previous opponents playing which affects their rating and their opponent's rating, etc. The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a neutral site between those two teams. It should be noted that these rankings are an average performance value for each team for the entire season, all games are equally weighted, so a team's latest game may make up only 1/40th of a teams rating at the end of the season. Games that go to shootouts for decision are considered ties for ratings purposes. Actually, there are two different rankings listed. The first is as described above with the maximum goal differential used per game set at 4. This ordering ends up similar to CCHP, although differences do arise due to CCHP considering home ice advantage and CCHP not using a goal differential limit. The second ranking sets maximum goal differential at 1, thereby just considering whether the game was won, lost, or tied (and strength of opponent). This was done because the NCAA has indicated that it does not want to consider goal differential in the selection process. Note that the Total column in the GD=1 ranking is therefore in win percentage units rather than goal units. A rated .01 ahead of B can be interpreted as saying that if these two teams played exclusively against each other, A's predicted winning percentage is 1 percentage point higher than B's (i.e. A's predicted winning percentage vs. B would be .495, B's against A would be .505). However, since the teams do not play exclusively against the other it is actually a little bit more complex than above as teams can be ranked as high as 1.0 above their average opponent (if they were undefeated and untied) and as low as 1.0 below their average opponent (if they lost all of their games). Not surprisingly, the ordering ends up very similar to KRACH . Links to other ratings: High School Rankings for 25 States High School National Rankings New England Prep Midget Minor AAA Midget Major AAA Men's NCAA D1 USHL NAHL ACHA College Club USHSHO.com High School Ice Hockey Forums
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