March 13, 2011 Previous Rankings New ratings will be posted each week, time permitting. Minimum 5 Scores vs. D1 Competition to be Ranked Maximum Goal Differential = 4 See Rankings Without Considering Goal Differential Below RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Wisconsin,_________________________ 37 2 2, 2.7, 7.5, 10.21, 10.57 2,Cornell,___________________________ 31 3 1, 2.6, 6.9, 9.46, 9.51 3,Minnesota-Duluth,__________________ 22 9 3, 1.6, 7.7, 9.29, 9.11 4,Minnesota,_________________________ 26 10 2, 1.4, 7.8, 9.19, 8.78 5,Mercyhurst,________________________ 29 6 0, 2.3, 6.6, 8.89, 8.14 6,Boston University,_________________ 27 7 4, 1.6, 7.2, 8.79, 8.27 7,Boston College,____________________ 24 7 6, 1.1, 7.3, 8.40, 9.47 8,North Dakota,______________________ 20 13 3, 0.3, 7.9, 8.20, 8.03 9,Providence,________________________ 22 12 1, 0.9, 6.9, 7.82, 8.35 10,Dartmouth,_________________________ 22 12 0, 0.7, 7.1, 7.80, 7.89 11,Harvard,___________________________ 17 11 4, 0.5, 7.2, 7.68, 9.12 12,Quinnipiac,________________________ 22 12 3, 1.0, 6.7, 7.67, 7.34 13,Bemidji State,_____________________ 14 17 4, -0.4, 8.0, 7.58, 8.72 14,Ohio State,________________________ 14 19 3, -0.3, 7.8, 7.51, 6.57 15,Princeton,_________________________ 16 14 1, 0.3, 7.1, 7.39, 7.47 16,Northeastern,______________________ 16 13 8, 0.1, 7.2, 7.29, 7.70 17,St Lawrence,_______________________ 16 18 2, -0.1, 7.2, 7.09, 6.34 18,Clarkson,__________________________ 14 17 6, -0.2, 7.1, 6.94, 7.95 19,New Hampshire,_____________________ 14 16 2, -0.3, 7.1, 6.85, 7.18 20,Syracuse,__________________________ 14 16 6, -0.3, 6.9, 6.61, 7.35 21,Rensselaer,________________________ 10 18 7, -0.7, 7.2, 6.51, 6.27 22,Maine,_____________________________ 12 17 5, -0.4, 6.9, 6.49, 7.84 23,Connecticut,_______________________ 13 19 3, -0.7, 7.1, 6.44, 6.71 24,Minnesota State,___________________ 8 25 3, -1.5, 7.9, 6.38, 6.27 25,Yale,______________________________ 9 17 3, -0.7, 7.0, 6.36, 6.16 26,Niagara,___________________________ 11 17 5, -0.7, 7.0, 6.35, 6.22 27,Vermont,___________________________ 7 17 9, -1.0, 7.2, 6.21, 6.37 28,Colgate,___________________________ 11 19 3, -0.8, 7.0, 6.16, 6.58 29,Wayne State,_______________________ 8 21 2, -0.9, 7.1, 6.14, 4.84 30,Robert Morris,_____________________ 6 21 7, -1.5, 7.4, 5.83, 6.63 31,St Cloud State,____________________ 1 33 1, -3.0, 8.4, 5.37, 5.47 32,Brown,_____________________________ 2 23 4, -2.1, 7.2, 5.12, 5.21 33,Union,_____________________________ 2 29 3, -2.0, 6.9, 4.87, 4.24 34,Holy Cross,________________________ 17 9 1, 1.4, 3.5, 4.87, 5.03 35,Sacred Heart,______________________ 8 21 0, -1.9, 4.4, 2.54, 1.92 Maximum Goal Differential = 1 (i.e. just considers W, L, T and schedule strength) RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Wisconsin,_________________________ 37 2 2, 0.9, 7.2, 8.03, 8.60 2,Cornell,___________________________ 31 3 1, 0.8, 6.9, 7.72, 7.82 3,Minnesota,_________________________ 26 10 2, 0.4, 7.3, 7.67, 7.69 4,Minnesota-Duluth,__________________ 22 9 3, 0.4, 7.2, 7.63, 7.37 5,Boston University,_________________ 27 7 4, 0.5, 7.1, 7.62, 7.26 6,Boston College,____________________ 24 7 6, 0.5, 7.1, 7.57, 8.03 7,Mercyhurst,________________________ 29 6 0, 0.7, 6.9, 7.51, 7.53 8,North Dakota,______________________ 20 13 3, 0.2, 7.3, 7.49, 7.67 9,Providence,________________________ 22 12 1, 0.3, 7.0, 7.29, 7.57 10,Dartmouth,_________________________ 22 12 0, 0.3, 7.0, 7.27, 7.50 11,Bemidji State,_____________________ 14 17 4, -0.1, 7.3, 7.22, 7.34 12,Harvard,___________________________ 17 11 4, 0.2, 7.0, 7.22, 7.32 13,Northeastern,______________________ 16 13 8, 0.1, 7.1, 7.16, 7.17 14,Quinnipiac,________________________ 22 12 3, 0.3, 6.9, 7.13, 6.97 15,Ohio State,________________________ 14 19 3, -0.1, 7.3, 7.11, 6.68 16,Princeton,_________________________ 16 14 1, 0.1, 7.0, 7.07, 7.01 17,New Hampshire,_____________________ 14 16 2, -0.1, 7.1, 7.00, 6.96 18,St Lawrence,_______________________ 16 18 2, -0.1, 7.0, 6.97, 7.06 19,Clarkson,__________________________ 14 17 6, -0.1, 7.0, 6.93, 7.15 20,Connecticut,_______________________ 13 19 3, -0.2, 7.1, 6.89, 6.81 21,Syracuse,__________________________ 14 16 6, -0.1, 6.9, 6.88, 7.30 22,Maine,_____________________________ 12 17 5, -0.1, 7.0, 6.86, 7.53 23,Minnesota State,___________________ 8 25 3, -0.5, 7.3, 6.81, 6.97 24,Rensselaer,________________________ 10 18 7, -0.2, 7.0, 6.80, 6.28 25,Niagara,___________________________ 11 17 5, -0.2, 7.0, 6.78, 6.56 26,Vermont,___________________________ 7 17 9, -0.3, 7.1, 6.77, 6.89 27,Colgate,___________________________ 11 19 3, -0.2, 6.9, 6.70, 6.88 28,Yale,______________________________ 9 17 3, -0.3, 7.0, 6.69, 6.78 29,Robert Morris,_____________________ 6 21 7, -0.4, 7.1, 6.64, 6.87 30,Wayne State,_______________________ 8 21 2, -0.4, 7.0, 6.59, 5.90 31,St Cloud State,____________________ 1 33 1, -0.9, 7.4, 6.52, 6.63 32,Holy Cross,________________________ 17 9 1, 0.3, 6.1, 6.44, 6.64 33,Brown,_____________________________ 2 23 4, -0.7, 7.0, 6.30, 6.26 34,Union,_____________________________ 2 29 3, -0.8, 7.0, 6.16, 6.28 35,Sacred Heart,______________________ 8 21 0, -0.4, 6.2, 5.76, 5.58 The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is reached (convergence). One effect often noticed is that a team's rating can change slightly without playing due to previous opponents playing which affects their rating and their opponent's rating, etc. The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a neutral site between those two teams. It should be noted that these rankings are an average performance value for each team for the entire season, all games are equally weighted, so a team's latest game may make up only 1/40th of a teams rating at the end of the season. Games that go to shootouts for decision are considered ties for ratings purposes. Actually, there are two different rankings listed. The first is as described above with the maximum goal differential used per game set at 4. This ordering ends up similar to CCHP, although differences do arise due to CCHP considering home ice advantage and CCHP not using a goal differential limit. The second ranking sets maximum goal differential at 1, thereby just considering whether the game was won, lost, or tied (and strength of opponent). This was done because the NCAA has indicated that it does not want to consider goal differential in the selection process. Note that the Total column in the GD=1 ranking is therefore in win percentage units rather than goal units. A rated .01 ahead of B can be interpreted as saying that if these two teams played exclusively against each other, A's predicted winning percentage is 1 percentage point higher than B's (i.e. A's predicted winning percentage vs. B would be .495, B's against A would be .505). However, since the teams do not play exclusively against the other it is actually a little bit more complex than above as teams can be ranked as high as 1.0 above their average opponent (if they were undefeated and untied) and as low as 1.0 below their average opponent (if they lost all of their games). Not surprisingly, the ordering ends up very similar to KRACH . Links to other ratings: High School Rankings for 25 States High School National Rankings New England Prep Midget Minor AAA Midget Major AAA Women's NCAA D1 USHL NAHL ACHA College Club USHSHO.com High School Ice Hockey Forums
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