Scores (sorted by team) through January 31, 2009 courtesy of USCHO.com . Disclaimer: The D3 rankings are new and it is unclear to me how well connected the East/West schedules are and therefore still unclear how accurate the relative rankings between regions are. Previous Rankings New ratings will be posted each week, time permitting. Maximum Goal Differential = 7 See Rankings Without Considering Goal Differential Below * - Indicates team rating based on only two scores RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 16 1 2, 2.7, 7.6, 10.36, 10.31 2,St Norbert,________________________ 15 6 1, 1.8, 8.5, 10.27, 9.85 3,Elmira,____________________________ 14 4 2, 2.0, 8.2, 10.25, 11.99 4,Wis-Superior,______________________ 17 2 3, 2.1, 8.1, 10.19, 8.97 5,St Scholastica,____________________ 17 3 2, 2.0, 8.2, 10.13, 11.98 6,Adrian,____________________________ 19 1 1, 3.9, 6.2, 10.09, 9.95 7,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 13 8 0, 1.1, 8.4, 9.54, 9.94 8,Wis-Stout,_________________________ 15 5 2, 1.4, 8.1, 9.48, 10.94 9,Wis-Eau Claire,____________________ 13 8 1, 1.1, 8.3, 9.42, 9.18 10,Oswego,____________________________ 14 5 1, 1.6, 7.8, 9.41, 9.57 11,St Olaf,___________________________ 12 6 1, 1.0, 8.3, 9.34, 9.13 12,Hobart,____________________________ 16 4 0, 2.3, 7.0, 9.28, 10.80 13,Middlebury,________________________ 13 4 1, 1.7, 7.6, 9.22, 8.22 14,Wis-Stevens Point,_________________ 13 7 2, 1.1, 8.0, 9.18, 9.03 15,Manhattanville,____________________ 12 3 3, 1.6, 7.4, 8.99, 9.09 16,Hamline,___________________________ 12 6 1, 1.4, 7.6, 8.96, 8.45 17,Neumann,___________________________ 10 7 2, 0.8, 8.2, 8.95, 8.71 18,Norwich,___________________________ 10 5 3, 1.1, 7.8, 8.92, 8.85 19,Amherst,___________________________ 12 4 1, 1.9, 7.0, 8.90, 9.71 20,St Thomas,_________________________ 9 8 2, 0.2, 8.7, 8.86, 9.02 21,Wis-River Falls,___________________ 10 11 1, 0.0, 8.6, 8.65, 8.54 22,Trinity,___________________________ 12 5 0, 1.6, 6.9, 8.54, 8.32 23,New England College,_______________ 12 6 1, 1.3, 7.2, 8.42, 7.92 24,Williams,__________________________ 11 4 2, 0.6, 7.3, 7.88, 8.25 25,Castleton,_________________________ 9 8 2, 0.4, 7.5, 7.87, 7.58 26,Buffalo State,_____________________ 8 10 3, 0.8, 7.1, 7.85, 6.51 27,Curry,_____________________________ 13 4 2, 1.7, 6.1, 7.84, 8.26 28,Utica,_____________________________ 9 8 2, 1.1, 6.8, 7.83, 6.19 29,St John's,_________________________ 6 12 1, -0.7, 8.5, 7.79, 8.20 30,Conn College,______________________ 9 6 3, 0.1, 7.6, 7.73, 7.47 31,Augsburg,__________________________ 5 14 0, -0.9, 8.6, 7.64, 7.91 32,Bowdoin,___________________________ 8 8 2, 0.7, 6.7, 7.47, 6.56 33,Geneseo,___________________________ 10 8 1, 0.1, 7.3, 7.43, 5.43 34,Potsdam,___________________________ 6 9 5, 0.2, 7.2, 7.40, 8.16 35,Skidmore,__________________________ 10 8 0, -0.2, 7.5, 7.35, 6.66 36,Salem State,_______________________ 11 6 1, 0.6, 6.8, 7.32, 8.11 37,Marian,____________________________ 10 8 3, 0.5, 6.7, 7.23, 6.78 38,Wentworth,_________________________ 9 7 1, 1.5, 5.7, 7.15, 5.12 39,Nichols,___________________________ 18 2 0, 1.8, 5.4, 7.15, 8.66 40,Babson,____________________________ 7 10 1, -0.1, 7.3, 7.15, 7.65 41,Milw School of Eng,________________ 11 8 2, 0.9, 6.3, 7.12, 7.69 42,Bethel,____________________________ 10 10 1, -0.5, 7.6, 7.09, 6.58 43,Hamilton,__________________________ 7 10 1, -0.4, 7.5, 7.08, 5.70 44,Southern Maine,____________________ 9 9 1, 0.0, 6.9, 6.85, 6.75 45,Concordia MN,______________________ 3 16 2, -1.2, 8.0, 6.83, 6.42 46,Brockport,_________________________ 11 5 3, 0.7, 6.0, 6.72, 5.31 47,Fredonia,__________________________ 4 12 4, -1.1, 7.9, 6.71, 6.14 48,Colby,_____________________________ 5 10 3, -0.5, 7.1, 6.58, 6.33 49,Cortland,__________________________ 7 11 2, -0.5, 7.0, 6.55, 7.83 50,Mass-Boston,_______________________ 7 10 2, -0.1, 6.5, 6.47, 7.49 51,Lawrence,__________________________ 11 9 1, 0.0, 6.4, 6.45, 5.57 52,Lake Forest,_______________________ 5 16 1, -2.0, 8.3, 6.33, 4.64 53,Tufts,_____________________________ 7 9 1, -0.5, 6.8, 6.30, 6.95 54,Westfield State,___________________ 9 4 4, 1.9, 4.4, 6.27, 4.86 55,Mass-Dartmouth,____________________ 12 5 2, 0.6, 5.4, 6.04, 5.94 56,St Anselm,_________________________ 5 10 1, -1.5, 7.4, 5.92, 6.02 57,Wesleyan,__________________________ 2 14 1, -2.0, 7.9, 5.88, 5.02 58,Finlandia,_________________________ 7 10 2, -0.5, 6.3, 5.80, 4.92 59,St Mary's,_________________________ 3 15 1, -3.0, 8.8, 5.77, 6.07 60,St Michael's,______________________ 6 9 2, -1.1, 6.7, 5.66, 5.98 61,Morrisville,_______________________ 5 15 1, -1.9, 7.3, 5.43, 5.43 62,Fitchburg State,___________________ 7 7 5, 0.1, 5.3, 5.37, 4.00 63,Becker,____________________________ 10 11 0, -0.6, 5.4, 4.79, 6.37 64,Plymouth State,____________________ 8 9 2, -0.7, 5.4, 4.70, 6.20 65,Stonehill,_________________________ 4 7 0, -0.5, 5.2, 4.70, 5.34 66,Minn-Crookston,____________________ 3 19 0, -2.6, 6.7, 4.15, 5.03 67,So New Hampshire,__________________ 6 9 0, -0.7, 4.6, 3.98, 3.83 68,Johnson and Wales,_________________ 7 8 2, -1.3, 5.2, 3.86, 3.90 69,Worcester State,___________________ 4 10 2, -1.3, 5.1, 3.81, 4.06 70,Concordia WI,______________________ 3 17 1, -3.1, 6.8, 3.62, 3.65 71,Suffolk,___________________________ 4 12 2, -1.6, 5.2, 3.59, 3.59 72,Lebanon Valley,____________________ 0 19 0, -4.6, 8.0, 3.45, 3.46 73,Salve Regina,______________________ 2 13 2, -1.6, 4.9, 3.24, 2.26 74,Assumption,________________________ 4 10 4, -1.3, 4.5, 3.19, 4.76 75,Northland,_________________________ 1 19 1, -4.0, 7.1, 3.08, 3.78 76,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 5 11 2, -1.7, 4.8, 3.07, 1.35 77,Western NE College,________________ 1 15 1, -3.6, 6.0, 2.41, 2.98 78,Framingham State,__________________ 0 16 4, -3.3, 5.5, 2.13, 2.18 Maximum Goal Differential = 1 (i.e. just considers W, L, T and schedule strength) RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 16 1 2, 0.8, 7.1, 7.92, 7.69 2,Elmira,____________________________ 14 4 2, 0.5, 7.3, 7.82, 8.06 3,Wis-Superior,______________________ 17 2 3, 0.7, 7.1, 7.80, 7.58 4,St Scholastica,____________________ 17 3 2, 0.6, 7.2, 7.80, 8.19 5,Middlebury,________________________ 13 4 1, 0.5, 7.2, 7.75, 7.50 6,Manhattanville,____________________ 12 3 3, 0.5, 7.2, 7.67, 7.48 7,St Norbert,________________________ 15 6 1, 0.4, 7.2, 7.65, 7.41 8,Hobart,____________________________ 16 4 0, 0.6, 7.0, 7.61, 7.76 9,Amherst,___________________________ 12 4 1, 0.5, 7.1, 7.59, 7.87 10,Oswego,____________________________ 14 5 1, 0.5, 7.1, 7.59, 7.85 11,Wis-Stout,_________________________ 15 5 2, 0.5, 7.1, 7.59, 8.00 12,Williams,__________________________ 11 4 2, 0.4, 7.2, 7.57, 7.72 13,Norwich,___________________________ 10 5 3, 0.3, 7.3, 7.56, 7.48 14,Adrian,____________________________ 19 1 1, 0.9, 6.7, 7.54, 7.41 15,Nichols,___________________________ 18 2 0, 0.8, 6.7, 7.52, 7.56 16,New England College,_______________ 12 6 1, 0.3, 7.2, 7.50, 7.34 17,Trinity,___________________________ 12 5 0, 0.4, 7.1, 7.50, 7.54 18,Neumann,___________________________ 10 7 2, 0.2, 7.3, 7.47, 7.26 19,St Olaf,___________________________ 12 6 1, 0.3, 7.1, 7.46, 7.35 20,Conn College,______________________ 9 6 3, 0.2, 7.3, 7.45, 7.50 21,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 13 8 0, 0.2, 7.2, 7.44, 7.48 22,Wis-Eau Claire,____________________ 13 8 1, 0.2, 7.2, 7.39, 6.90 23,Wis-Stevens Point,_________________ 13 7 2, 0.3, 7.1, 7.37, 7.30 24,Curry,_____________________________ 13 4 2, 0.5, 6.9, 7.36, 7.28 25,Skidmore,__________________________ 10 8 0, 0.1, 7.2, 7.33, 6.96 26,Hamline,___________________________ 12 6 1, 0.3, 7.0, 7.32, 6.97 27,Castleton,_________________________ 9 8 2, 0.1, 7.2, 7.28, 7.27 28,Salem State,_______________________ 11 6 1, 0.3, 7.0, 7.28, 7.65 29,St Thomas,_________________________ 9 8 2, 0.1, 7.2, 7.27, 7.19 30,Wis-River Falls,___________________ 10 11 1, -0.0, 7.3, 7.21, 7.20 31,Geneseo,___________________________ 10 8 1, 0.1, 7.1, 7.16, 6.49 32,Brockport,_________________________ 11 5 3, 0.3, 6.8, 7.10, 7.14 33,Utica,_____________________________ 9 8 2, 0.1, 7.0, 7.05, 6.80 34,Mass-Dartmouth,____________________ 12 5 2, 0.4, 6.7, 7.05, 6.99 35,Bowdoin,___________________________ 8 8 2, 0.0, 7.0, 7.05, 6.72 36,Southern Maine,____________________ 9 9 1, 0.0, 7.0, 7.04, 6.94 37,Hamilton,__________________________ 7 10 1, -0.2, 7.2, 7.01, 6.77 38,Tufts,_____________________________ 7 9 1, -0.1, 7.1, 6.98, 6.79 39,Babson,____________________________ 7 10 1, -0.2, 7.1, 6.96, 7.06 40,Buffalo State,_____________________ 8 10 3, -0.1, 7.0, 6.94, 6.95 41,Wentworth,_________________________ 9 7 1, 0.1, 6.8, 6.94, 6.83 42,Bethel,____________________________ 10 10 1, 0.0, 6.9, 6.93, 7.15 43,St Anselm,_________________________ 5 10 1, -0.3, 7.2, 6.92, 6.85 44,Marian,____________________________ 10 8 3, 0.1, 6.8, 6.91, 7.06 45,Potsdam,___________________________ 6 9 5, -0.2, 7.0, 6.88, 7.06 46,St Michael's,______________________ 6 9 2, -0.2, 7.1, 6.88, 6.71 47,Milw School of Eng,________________ 11 8 2, 0.1, 6.7, 6.86, 7.12 48,Colby,_____________________________ 5 10 3, -0.3, 7.1, 6.86, 6.96 49,St John's,_________________________ 6 12 1, -0.3, 7.2, 6.84, 7.31 50,Lawrence,__________________________ 11 9 1, 0.1, 6.7, 6.82, 6.58 51,Westfield State,___________________ 9 4 4, 0.3, 6.5, 6.81, 6.22 52,Mass-Boston,_______________________ 7 10 2, -0.2, 7.0, 6.81, 7.00 53,Cortland,__________________________ 7 11 2, -0.2, 7.0, 6.79, 6.84 54,Fredonia,__________________________ 4 12 4, -0.4, 7.2, 6.76, 6.57 55,Augsburg,__________________________ 5 14 0, -0.5, 7.2, 6.73, 6.72 56,Fitchburg State,___________________ 7 7 5, 0.0, 6.7, 6.71, 6.29 57,Becker,____________________________ 10 11 0, -0.0, 6.8, 6.71, 7.19 58,Lake Forest,_______________________ 5 16 1, -0.5, 7.2, 6.69, 6.60 59,Morrisville,_______________________ 5 15 1, -0.5, 7.1, 6.65, 6.78 60,Plymouth State,____________________ 8 9 2, -0.1, 6.7, 6.65, 6.84 61,Wesleyan,__________________________ 2 14 1, -0.7, 7.4, 6.64, 6.65 62,St Mary's,_________________________ 3 15 1, -0.6, 7.3, 6.64, 6.67 63,Finlandia,_________________________ 7 10 2, -0.2, 6.7, 6.58, 6.35 64,Johnson and Wales,_________________ 7 8 2, -0.1, 6.6, 6.55, 6.21 65,Concordia MN,______________________ 3 16 2, -0.6, 7.1, 6.45, 6.39 66,Stonehill,_________________________ 4 7 0, -0.3, 6.7, 6.44, 7.01 67,So New Hampshire,__________________ 6 9 0, -0.2, 6.6, 6.39, 6.42 68,Worcester State,___________________ 4 10 2, -0.4, 6.7, 6.31, 6.28 69,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 5 11 2, -0.3, 6.6, 6.26, 5.90 70,Lebanon Valley,____________________ 0 19 0, -1.0, 7.3, 6.26, 6.31 71,Suffolk,___________________________ 4 12 2, -0.4, 6.7, 6.23, 6.19 72,Assumption,________________________ 4 10 4, -0.3, 6.5, 6.17, 6.78 73,Concordia WI,______________________ 3 17 1, -0.7, 6.8, 6.14, 5.84 74,Minn-Crookston,____________________ 3 19 0, -0.7, 6.8, 6.08, 6.36 75,Northland,_________________________ 1 19 1, -0.9, 6.9, 6.06, 6.22 76,Western NE College,________________ 1 15 1, -0.8, 6.8, 5.98, 6.05 77,Salve Regina,______________________ 2 13 2, -0.6, 6.6, 5.97, 5.57 78,Framingham State,__________________ 0 16 4, -0.8, 6.7, 5.94, 5.71 Link to the 2005-2006 Final D1 Rankings . The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is reached (convergence). One effect often noticed is that a team's rating can change slightly without playing due to previous opponents playing which affects their rating and their opponent's rating, etc. The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a neutral site between those two teams. It should be noted that these rankings are an average performance value for each team for the entire season, all games are equally weighted, so a team's latest game may make up only 1/40th of a teams rating at the end of the season. Games that go to shootouts for decision are considered ties for ratings purposes. Actually, there are two different rankings listed. The first is as described above with the maximum goal differential used per game set at 7. This ordering ends up similar to CCHP, although differences do arise due to CCHP considering home ice advantage and CCHP not using a goal differential limit. The second ranking sets maximum goal differential at 1, thereby just considering whether the game was won, lost, or tied (and strength of opponent). This was done because the NCAA has indicated that it does not want to consider goal differential in the selection process. Note that the Total column in the GD=1 ranking is therefore in win percentage units rather than goal units. A rated .01 ahead of B can be interpreted as saying that if these two teams played exclusively against each other, A's predicted winning percentage is 1 percentage point higher than B's (i.e. A's predicted winning percentage vs. B would be .495, B's against A would be .505). However, since the teams do not play exclusively against the other it is actually a little bit more complex than above as teams can be ranked as high as 1.0 above their average opponent (if they were undefeated and untied) and as low as 1.0 below their average opponent (if they lost all of their games). Not surprisingly, the ordering ends up very similar to KRACH . Links to other ratings: High School Rankings for 25 States High School National Rankings New England Prep Midget Minor AAA Midget Major AAA Men's NCAA D1 USHL NAHL ACHA College Club USHSHO.com High School Ice Hockey Forums
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