Scores (sorted by team) through February 2, 2008 courtesy of USCHO.com . Disclaimer: The D3 rankings are new and it is unclear to me how well connected the East/West schedules are and therefore still unclear how accurate the relative rankings between regions are. Previous Rankings New ratings will be posted each week, time permitting. Maximum Goal Differential = 7 See Rankings Without Considering Goal Differential Below * - Indicates team rating based on only two scores RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,St Norbert,________________________ 18 1 3, 2.3, 8.3, 10.57, 10.69 2,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 19 3 0, 2.8, 7.7, 10.50, 9.59 3,St Thomas,_________________________ 14 4 1, 2.1, 8.4, 10.48, 9.17 4,Adrian,____________________________ 18 3 0, 3.8, 6.2, 9.98, 10.77 5,Norwich,___________________________ 16 3 0, 2.6, 7.4, 9.95, 9.73 6,Elmira,____________________________ 17 1 2, 2.5, 7.4, 9.81, 9.87 7,Wis-River Falls,___________________ 14 5 3, 1.4, 8.4, 9.78, 8.37 8,Oswego,____________________________ 14 5 2, 2.1, 7.6, 9.66, 11.26 9,St John's,_________________________ 9 8 2, 0.8, 8.8, 9.64, 10.25 10,Manhattanville,____________________ 13 4 2, 1.9, 7.7, 9.63, 9.62 11,Wis-Stout,_________________________ 14 6 2, 1.5, 8.1, 9.56, 9.14 12,Neumann,___________________________ 15 6 0, 1.9, 7.7, 9.51, 9.28 13,Wis-Stevens Point,_________________ 14 5 3, 1.3, 8.1, 9.41, 9.68 14,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 10 10 1, 0.6, 8.8, 9.38, 9.15 15,Hobart,____________________________ 15 5 0, 2.0, 7.2, 9.26, 8.85 16,Wis-Superior,______________________ 11 5 6, 0.8, 8.4, 9.18, 8.89 17,Bethel,____________________________ 13 5 2, 1.1, 7.9, 9.05, 8.36 18,Hamline,___________________________ 10 6 3, 1.2, 7.7, 8.86, 8.94 19,Babson,____________________________ 13 4 3, 1.5, 7.2, 8.74, 7.31 20,Middlebury,________________________ 13 3 2, 1.2, 7.5, 8.68, 7.96 21,Bowdoin,___________________________ 13 4 0, 1.6, 6.9, 8.58, 9.18 22,St Mary's,_________________________ 7 10 2, 0.0, 8.4, 8.39, 7.30 23,St Scholastica,____________________ 8 12 2, -0.3, 8.6, 8.37, 7.92 24,Wis-Eau Claire,____________________ 9 13 0, -0.3, 8.6, 8.33, 9.09 25,Fredonia,__________________________ 12 7 3, 0.6, 7.6, 8.21, 8.31 26,Utica,_____________________________ 11 7 1, 0.5, 7.6, 8.15, 9.39 27,St Olaf,___________________________ 8 9 4, 0.0, 8.1, 8.10, 9.55 28,Colby,_____________________________ 10 6 1, 0.9, 7.2, 8.08, 8.42 29,Amherst,___________________________ 10 5 3, 0.8, 7.2, 8.06, 6.67 30,New England College,_______________ 11 4 3, 1.4, 6.6, 8.00, 7.14 31,Southern Maine,____________________ 12 4 3, 1.1, 6.7, 7.85, 6.87 32,Marian,____________________________ 12 8 1, 0.7, 7.0, 7.74, 6.49 33,Trinity,___________________________ 9 6 2, 0.4, 7.2, 7.51, 7.05 34,Salem State,_______________________ 11 7 1, 1.1, 6.3, 7.38, 8.68 35,Buffalo State,_____________________ 10 9 3, 0.0, 7.3, 7.30, 8.02 36,Curry,_____________________________ 11 9 1, 0.9, 6.4, 7.26, 7.54 37,Finlandia,_________________________ 12 7 2, 1.0, 6.2, 7.21, 9.04 38,Cortland,__________________________ 11 9 2, 0.1, 6.9, 7.08, 8.86 39,Geneseo,___________________________ 6 15 0, -1.0, 8.1, 7.07, 6.88 40,Castleton,_________________________ 7 10 2, 0.1, 7.0, 7.06, 7.51 41,Mass-Dartmouth,____________________ 10 7 1, 1.7, 5.3, 6.97, 6.19 42,Brockport,_________________________ 6 13 3, -0.3, 7.2, 6.96, 5.13 43,Augsburg,__________________________ 3 14 2, -2.1, 9.0, 6.88, 7.09 44,Milw School of Eng,________________ 12 9 0, 0.4, 6.3, 6.70, 5.82 45,Williams,__________________________ 6 9 3, -0.9, 7.3, 6.46, 5.86 46,Conn College,______________________ 4 11 3, -0.8, 7.2, 6.39, 7.28 47,Potsdam,___________________________ 7 12 4, -1.4, 7.8, 6.36, 4.23 48,Wesleyan,__________________________ 5 7 3, -1.3, 7.4, 6.18, 6.65 49,Lake Forest,_______________________ 3 18 1, -2.3, 8.4, 6.14, 7.37 50,St Michael's,______________________ 5 8 1, -0.9, 7.0, 6.10, 7.27 51,St Anselm,_________________________ 3 8 3, -0.9, 6.9, 6.06, 5.55 52,Nichols,___________________________ 13 5 1, 1.4, 4.6, 6.05, 6.16 53,Hamilton,__________________________ 4 14 1, -1.4, 7.4, 6.01, 5.75 54,Mass-Boston,_______________________ 8 10 1, -0.6, 6.5, 5.92, 5.39 55,Tufts,_____________________________ 6 11 1, -1.6, 7.4, 5.82, 5.56 56,Skidmore,__________________________ 6 11 2, -1.3, 7.0, 5.69, 6.23 57,Lawrence,__________________________ 7 11 3, -0.9, 6.5, 5.63, 7.03 58,Fitchburg State,___________________ 9 7 3, 1.0, 4.4, 5.43, 4.58 59,Morrisville,_______________________ 5 20 0, -1.7, 7.1, 5.42, 5.37 60,Concordia MN,______________________ 1 17 1, -3.4, 8.6, 5.24, 5.43 61,Plymouth State,____________________ 7 9 2, 0.1, 5.2, 5.22, 4.78 62,Suffolk,___________________________ 10 8 0, 0.7, 4.0, 4.71, 5.52 63,Wentworth,_________________________ 8 11 0, -1.4, 6.0, 4.60, 6.24 64,Becker,____________________________ 9 10 1, -0.5, 4.9, 4.39, 5.04 65,Minn-Crookston,____________________ 5 15 0, -2.3, 6.6, 4.31, 4.87 66,Lebanon Valley,____________________ 1 18 1, -3.7, 7.9, 4.24, 4.53 67,Johnson and Wales,_________________ 5 13 0, -0.6, 4.8, 4.21, 4.20 68,So New Hampshire,__________________ 5 8 1, -0.9, 4.9, 4.01, 2.17 69,Salve Regina,______________________ 6 9 2, -0.9, 4.9, 3.95, 3.94 70,Stonehill,_________________________ 5 5 1, -0.7, 4.7, 3.94, 5.39 71,Northland,_________________________ 3 18 0, -3.6, 7.1, 3.52, 2.02 72,Concordia WI,______________________ 2 19 0, -4.0, 7.1, 3.07, 2.33 73,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 4 9 0, -0.8, 3.9, 3.04, 2.76 74,Western NE College,________________ 4 13 2, -2.1, 5.0, 2.91, 4.78 75,Assumption,________________________ 4 9 0, -1.8, 4.3, 2.47, 1.98 76,Framingham State,__________________ 1 18 0, -3.5, 4.9, 1.41, -0.63 77,Worcester State,___________________ 2 17 0, -4.3, 4.8, 0.51, 0.86 Maximum Goal Differential = 1 (i.e. just considers W, L, T and schedule strength) RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,St Norbert,________________________ 18 1 3, 0.8, 7.2, 7.99, 7.80 2,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 19 3 0, 0.7, 7.2, 7.89, 7.74 3,Norwich,___________________________ 16 3 0, 0.7, 7.2, 7.87, 8.05 4,Elmira,____________________________ 17 1 2, 0.8, 7.1, 7.86, 7.92 5,St Thomas,_________________________ 14 4 1, 0.5, 7.2, 7.76, 7.20 6,Middlebury,________________________ 13 3 2, 0.6, 7.2, 7.71, 7.56 7,Manhattanville,____________________ 13 4 2, 0.5, 7.2, 7.66, 7.76 8,Wis-River Falls,___________________ 14 5 3, 0.4, 7.2, 7.65, 7.19 9,Wis-Stevens Point,_________________ 14 5 3, 0.4, 7.2, 7.60, 7.98 10,Neumann,___________________________ 15 6 0, 0.4, 7.2, 7.60, 7.64 11,Adrian,____________________________ 18 3 0, 0.7, 6.9, 7.59, 7.71 12,Bowdoin,___________________________ 13 4 0, 0.5, 7.1, 7.59, 7.65 13,Babson,____________________________ 13 4 3, 0.5, 7.1, 7.58, 7.39 14,Hobart,____________________________ 15 5 0, 0.5, 7.0, 7.55, 7.33 15,Wis-Stout,_________________________ 14 6 2, 0.4, 7.2, 7.55, 7.29 16,Wis-Superior,______________________ 11 5 6, 0.3, 7.3, 7.54, 7.62 17,Bethel,____________________________ 13 5 2, 0.4, 7.1, 7.52, 7.64 18,Oswego,____________________________ 14 5 2, 0.4, 7.1, 7.52, 7.55 19,Southern Maine,____________________ 12 4 3, 0.4, 7.0, 7.46, 7.01 20,St John's,_________________________ 9 8 2, 0.1, 7.4, 7.41, 7.93 21,Amherst,___________________________ 10 5 3, 0.3, 7.1, 7.40, 7.10 22,Colby,_____________________________ 10 6 1, 0.2, 7.2, 7.39, 7.60 23,Utica,_____________________________ 11 7 1, 0.2, 7.2, 7.37, 7.57 24,New England College,_______________ 11 4 3, 0.4, 7.0, 7.36, 7.02 25,Fredonia,__________________________ 12 7 3, 0.2, 7.1, 7.34, 7.40 26,Trinity,___________________________ 9 6 2, 0.2, 7.1, 7.32, 7.43 27,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 10 10 1, 0.0, 7.3, 7.32, 7.52 28,Hamline,___________________________ 10 6 3, 0.2, 7.1, 7.28, 7.25 29,Marian,____________________________ 12 8 1, 0.2, 7.0, 7.22, 6.74 30,Salem State,_______________________ 11 7 1, 0.2, 7.0, 7.18, 7.76 31,St Scholastica,____________________ 8 12 2, -0.2, 7.3, 7.15, 7.03 32,Wis-Eau Claire,____________________ 9 13 0, -0.2, 7.3, 7.12, 7.28 33,Finlandia,_________________________ 12 7 2, 0.2, 6.9, 7.10, 7.39 34,St Olaf,___________________________ 8 9 4, -0.0, 7.1, 7.08, 7.43 35,St Mary's,_________________________ 7 10 2, -0.2, 7.2, 7.05, 6.66 36,Wesleyan,__________________________ 5 7 3, -0.1, 7.2, 7.05, 7.03 37,Buffalo State,_____________________ 10 9 3, 0.0, 7.0, 7.04, 7.28 38,Cortland,__________________________ 11 9 2, 0.1, 6.9, 7.03, 7.35 39,Milw School of Eng,________________ 12 9 0, 0.1, 6.9, 7.02, 7.20 40,Williams,__________________________ 6 9 3, -0.2, 7.2, 7.01, 7.00 41,Curry,_____________________________ 11 9 1, 0.1, 6.9, 6.97, 7.37 42,Potsdam,___________________________ 7 12 4, -0.2, 7.1, 6.92, 6.20 43,Castleton,_________________________ 7 10 2, -0.2, 7.0, 6.89, 7.47 44,St Michael's,______________________ 5 8 1, -0.2, 7.1, 6.88, 7.03 45,Tufts,_____________________________ 6 11 1, -0.3, 7.1, 6.87, 6.58 46,Nichols,___________________________ 13 5 1, 0.4, 6.4, 6.86, 6.52 47,Mass-Boston,_______________________ 8 10 1, -0.1, 7.0, 6.85, 6.42 48,Geneseo,___________________________ 6 15 0, -0.4, 7.2, 6.81, 6.66 49,Augsburg,__________________________ 3 14 2, -0.6, 7.4, 6.79, 6.81 50,Mass-Dartmouth,____________________ 10 7 1, 0.2, 6.6, 6.79, 6.22 51,Skidmore,__________________________ 6 11 2, -0.3, 7.0, 6.79, 6.85 52,Conn College,______________________ 4 11 3, -0.4, 7.1, 6.76, 6.96 53,Brockport,_________________________ 6 13 3, -0.3, 7.0, 6.73, 6.26 54,Lawrence,__________________________ 7 11 3, -0.2, 6.9, 6.71, 7.16 55,St Anselm,_________________________ 3 8 3, -0.4, 7.0, 6.69, 6.39 56,Hamilton,__________________________ 4 14 1, -0.5, 7.2, 6.65, 6.43 57,Wentworth,_________________________ 8 11 0, -0.2, 6.8, 6.64, 7.07 58,Lake Forest,_______________________ 3 18 1, -0.7, 7.3, 6.61, 6.88 59,Fitchburg State,___________________ 9 7 3, 0.1, 6.4, 6.53, 6.66 60,Plymouth State,____________________ 7 9 2, -0.1, 6.6, 6.48, 6.38 61,Concordia MN,______________________ 1 17 1, -0.8, 7.3, 6.46, 6.53 62,Suffolk,___________________________ 10 8 0, 0.1, 6.3, 6.45, 6.53 63,Becker,____________________________ 9 10 1, -0.1, 6.5, 6.44, 6.67 64,Stonehill,_________________________ 5 5 1, 0.0, 6.4, 6.43, 6.77 65,Minn-Crookston,____________________ 5 15 0, -0.5, 6.9, 6.43, 6.49 66,Morrisville,_______________________ 5 20 0, -0.6, 7.0, 6.38, 6.47 67,Lebanon Valley,____________________ 1 18 1, -0.9, 7.2, 6.38, 6.68 68,Northland,_________________________ 3 18 0, -0.7, 7.1, 6.35, 6.28 69,Salve Regina,______________________ 6 9 2, -0.2, 6.5, 6.31, 6.39 70,So New Hampshire,__________________ 5 8 1, -0.2, 6.5, 6.24, 5.62 71,Concordia WI,______________________ 2 19 0, -0.8, 7.0, 6.22, 5.72 72,Western NE College,________________ 4 13 2, -0.5, 6.5, 6.05, 6.66 73,Johnson and Wales,_________________ 5 13 0, -0.4, 6.5, 6.04, 6.14 74,Assumption,________________________ 4 9 0, -0.4, 6.4, 5.97, 5.56 75,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 4 9 0, -0.4, 6.3, 5.91, 6.06 76,Worcester State,___________________ 2 17 0, -0.8, 6.4, 5.65, 5.67 77,Framingham State,__________________ 1 18 0, -0.9, 6.5, 5.60, 5.37 Link to the 2005-2006 Final D1 Rankings . The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is reached (convergence). One effect often noticed is that a team's rating can change slightly without playing due to previous opponents playing which affects their rating and their opponent's rating, etc. The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a neutral site between those two teams. It should be noted that these rankings are an average performance value for each team for the entire season, all games are equally weighted, so a team's latest game may make up only 1/40th of a teams rating at the end of the season. Games that go to shootouts for decision are considered ties for ratings purposes. Actually, there are two different rankings listed. The first is as described above with the maximum goal differential used per game set at 7. This ordering ends up similar to CCHP, although differences do arise due to CCHP considering home ice advantage and CCHP not using a goal differential limit. The second ranking sets maximum goal differential at 1, thereby just considering whether the game was won, lost, or tied (and strength of opponent). This was done because the NCAA has indicated that it does not want to consider goal differential in the selection process. Note that the Total column in the GD=1 ranking is therefore in win percentage units rather than goal units. A rated .01 ahead of B can be interpreted as saying that if these two teams played exclusively against each other, A's predicted winning percentage is 1 percentage point higher than B's (i.e. A's predicted winning percentage vs. B would be .495, B's against A would be .505). However, since the teams do not play exclusively against the other it is actually a little bit more complex than above as teams can be ranked as high as 1.0 above their average opponent (if they were undefeated and untied) and as low as 1.0 below their average opponent (if they lost all of their games). Not surprisingly, the ordering ends up very similar to KRACH . Links to other ratings: High School Rankings for 25 States High School National Rankings New England Prep Midget Minor AAA Midget Major AAA Men's NCAA D1 USHL NAHL ACHA College Club USHSHO.com High School Ice Hockey Forums
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