Scores (sorted by team) through February 4, 2007 courtesy of USCHO.com . Disclaimer: The D3 rankings are new and it is unclear to me how well connected the East/West schedules are and therefore still unclear how accurate the relative rankings between regions are. Previous Rankings New ratings will be posted each week, time permitting. Maximum Goal Differential = 7 See Rankings Without Considering Goal Differential Below RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Manhattanville,____________________ 17 0 3, 4.1, 7.8, 11.95, 13.18 2,Neumann,___________________________ 16 3 4, 2.3, 8.7, 10.98, 11.00 3,Oswego,____________________________ 18 1 3, 2.8, 8.1, 10.87, 9.97 4,St Norbert,________________________ 18 3 2, 2.8, 7.3, 10.10, 9.10 5,Norwich,___________________________ 15 6 0, 2.1, 7.9, 10.01, 10.34 6,Hobart,____________________________ 11 5 5, 1.2, 8.8, 9.98, 6.77 7,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 10 7 5, 1.5, 8.5, 9.91, 10.81 8,Utica,_____________________________ 10 7 3, 0.5, 9.4, 9.85, 10.63 9,Elmira,____________________________ 10 8 3, 0.6, 8.9, 9.56, 10.58 10,Castleton,_________________________ 4 1 0, 1.8, 7.5, 9.28 11,Southern Maine,____________________ 13 7 1, 1.6, 7.6, 9.16, 10.20 12,Geneseo,___________________________ 14 8 0, 0.7, 8.5, 9.15, 9.83 13,Bowdoin,___________________________ 11 5 3, 1.6, 7.4, 9.02, 8.93 14,Babson,____________________________ 12 8 0, 0.8, 8.2, 8.92, 7.46 15,Wis-Stout,_________________________ 19 2 2, 1.8, 7.1, 8.88, 8.83 16,Fredonia,__________________________ 11 7 4, 0.8, 8.1, 8.87, 9.26 17,Castleton State,___________________ 10 3 3, 1.8, 7.0, 8.85, 10.12 18,Wis-Superior,______________________ 17 5 1, 1.7, 7.1, 8.79, 7.96 19,Colby,_____________________________ 10 7 2, 1.1, 7.7, 8.78, 8.07 20,Middlebury,________________________ 11 7 2, 0.5, 8.2, 8.63, 7.93 21,Amherst,___________________________ 12 6 1, 0.8, 7.8, 8.61, 7.28 22,Trinity,___________________________ 8 8 4, 0.8, 7.8, 8.58, 10.01 23,Mass-Dartmouth,____________________ 19 1 1, 3.3, 5.2, 8.57, 7.42 24,Curry,_____________________________ 12 7 1, 1.8, 6.7, 8.54, 8.53 25,Wesleyan,__________________________ 11 4 4, 0.9, 7.6, 8.50, 8.39 26,Wis-River Falls,___________________ 17 4 2, 1.4, 7.0, 8.46, 8.22 27,New England College,_______________ 11 9 1, 0.4, 7.8, 8.21, 7.92 28,Skidmore,__________________________ 13 6 2, 0.6, 7.4, 8.02, 8.52 29,Buffalo State,_____________________ 10 10 2, 0.1, 7.6, 7.69, 8.66 30,St Anselm,_________________________ 6 7 3, -0.5, 8.1, 7.64, 8.07 31,Williams,__________________________ 6 11 2, -0.9, 8.5, 7.63, 6.57 32,Bethel,____________________________ 10 8 1, 0.6, 7.0, 7.63, 7.97 33,Conn College,______________________ 7 12 1, -0.7, 8.2, 7.52, 8.19 34,St Scholastica,____________________ 13 8 2, 0.7, 6.7, 7.48, 8.45 35,St Thomas,_________________________ 10 9 0, 0.1, 7.3, 7.43, 8.85 36,Brockport,_________________________ 6 9 7, -0.8, 8.1, 7.30, 7.52 37,Hamilton,__________________________ 6 13 1, -1.0, 8.3, 7.22, 6.87 38,Salem State,_______________________ 8 13 0, -0.2, 7.4, 7.15, 7.65 39,Wis-Eau Claire,____________________ 8 11 4, -0.3, 7.4, 7.14, 7.08 40,Augsburg,__________________________ 7 8 4, -0.2, 7.3, 7.08, 5.76 41,Potsdam,___________________________ 5 16 1, -2.1, 9.1, 7.04, 6.06 42,Finlandia,_________________________ 14 7 0, 1.8, 5.1, 6.89, 6.87 43,Wentworth,_________________________ 11 7 3, 0.3, 6.5, 6.87, 6.93 44,Milw School of Eng,________________ 15 4 2, 1.9, 5.0, 6.86, 7.40 45,Cortland,__________________________ 7 13 2, -1.1, 7.9, 6.80, 6.84 46,St John's,_________________________ 7 13 1, -0.5, 7.0, 6.57, 6.93 47,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 10 10 1, -0.2, 6.8, 6.53, 5.66 48,Wis-Stevens Point,_________________ 6 15 2, -1.2, 7.4, 6.21, 7.76 49,St Olaf,___________________________ 7 12 2, -0.4, 6.6, 6.19, 5.42 50,St Mary's,_________________________ 7 11 1, -0.6, 6.5, 5.86, 6.40 51,Morrisville,_______________________ 4 9 0, -2.2, 7.8, 5.69, 4.58 52,Fitchburg State,___________________ 12 7 2, 0.5, 5.1, 5.60, 6.34 53,Marian,____________________________ 8 10 3, -0.1, 5.7, 5.59, 6.92 54,Lake Forest,_______________________ 3 17 3, -1.7, 7.3, 5.58, 5.58 55,Tufts,_____________________________ 5 15 0, -2.2, 7.4, 5.23, 5.07 56,Plymouth State,____________________ 8 11 1, -1.0, 6.3, 5.22, 5.27 57,Lawrence,__________________________ 11 9 1, 0.1, 5.1, 5.21, 5.47 58,Hamline,___________________________ 7 12 0, -1.3, 6.4, 5.16, 6.14 59,Nichols,___________________________ 11 9 1, 0.1, 5.1, 5.16, 4.57 60,Mass-Boston,_______________________ 4 16 1, -2.3, 7.5, 5.15, 5.26 61,Lebanon Valley,____________________ 2 20 1, -3.7, 8.7, 4.96, 6.53 62,St Michael's,______________________ 2 13 0, -2.8, 7.7, 4.91, 5.31 63,Stonehill,_________________________ 4 9 0, -0.6, 5.3, 4.65, 5.33 64,Johnson and Wales,_________________ 10 9 1, -0.7, 5.2, 4.46, 4.58 65,So New Hampshire,__________________ 7 7 1, -0.8, 5.1, 4.33, 5.40 66,Concordia,_________________________ 6 13 0, -1.6, 5.7, 4.12, 2.70 67,Suffolk,___________________________ 6 13 1, -0.7, 4.8, 4.12, 5.74 68,Salve Regina,______________________ 7 12 1, -1.3, 5.3, 4.08, 5.28 69,Worcester State,___________________ 6 12 1, -1.2, 4.5, 3.31, 2.36 70,Western NE College,________________ 8 12 0, -1.3, 4.5, 3.18, 2.49 71,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 3 8 2, -1.9, 4.9, 2.96, 1.26 72,Becker,____________________________ 1 11 2, -2.1, 4.9, 2.79, 2.69 73,Framingham State,__________________ 2 17 1, -2.1, 4.8, 2.67, 1.68 74,Minn-Crookston,____________________ 3 13 2, -2.9, 5.4, 2.50, 0.89 75,Assumption,________________________ 2 12 0, -3.2, 5.4, 2.16, 1.81 76,Northland,_________________________ 0 20 1, -3.7, 5.8, 2.16, 1.14 Maximum Goal Differential = 1 (i.e. just considers W, L, T and schedule strength) RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Manhattanville,____________________ 17 0 3, 0.9, 7.2, 8.06, 8.04 2,Oswego,____________________________ 18 1 3, 0.8, 7.3, 8.06, 8.02 3,Neumann,___________________________ 16 3 4, 0.6, 7.4, 7.99, 8.03 4,St Norbert,________________________ 18 3 2, 0.7, 7.2, 7.85, 8.01 5,Wis-Stout,_________________________ 19 2 2, 0.7, 7.1, 7.84, 7.84 6,Hobart,____________________________ 11 5 5, 0.3, 7.4, 7.70, 7.05 7,Utica,_____________________________ 10 7 3, 0.2, 7.5, 7.68, 7.85 8,Wis-River Falls,___________________ 17 4 2, 0.6, 7.1, 7.65, 7.29 9,Wis-Superior,______________________ 17 5 1, 0.5, 7.1, 7.64, 7.45 10,Geneseo,___________________________ 14 8 0, 0.3, 7.4, 7.63, 7.62 11,Elmira,____________________________ 10 8 3, 0.1, 7.5, 7.58, 8.04 12,Castleton,_________________________ 4 1 0, 0.6, 7.0, 7.57 13,Norwich,___________________________ 15 6 0, 0.4, 7.1, 7.52, 7.73 14,Fredonia,__________________________ 11 7 4, 0.2, 7.3, 7.49, 7.28 15,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 10 7 5, 0.1, 7.3, 7.48, 7.75 16,Mass-Dartmouth,____________________ 19 1 1, 0.9, 6.5, 7.40, 7.35 17,Wesleyan,__________________________ 11 4 4, 0.4, 7.0, 7.38, 7.61 18,Castleton State,___________________ 10 3 3, 0.4, 6.9, 7.38, 7.99 19,Amherst,___________________________ 12 6 1, 0.3, 7.1, 7.37, 6.86 20,Babson,____________________________ 12 8 0, 0.2, 7.2, 7.36, 7.09 21,Middlebury,________________________ 11 7 2, 0.2, 7.1, 7.35, 7.47 22,Skidmore,__________________________ 13 6 2, 0.3, 7.0, 7.31, 7.54 23,Southern Maine,____________________ 13 7 1, 0.3, 7.0, 7.30, 7.54 24,Bowdoin,___________________________ 11 5 3, 0.3, 7.0, 7.29, 7.24 25,St Scholastica,____________________ 13 8 2, 0.2, 7.0, 7.26, 7.80 26,Bethel,____________________________ 10 8 1, 0.1, 7.1, 7.20, 7.37 27,New England College,_______________ 11 9 1, 0.1, 7.1, 7.20, 6.72 28,St Thomas,_________________________ 10 9 0, 0.1, 7.1, 7.19, 7.57 29,Colby,_____________________________ 10 7 2, 0.2, 7.0, 7.19, 7.16 30,Buffalo State,_____________________ 10 10 2, 0.0, 7.2, 7.19, 7.48 31,Curry,_____________________________ 12 7 1, 0.3, 6.9, 7.16, 7.32 32,Milw School of Eng,________________ 15 4 2, 0.5, 6.6, 7.14, 7.09 33,Brockport,_________________________ 6 9 7, -0.1, 7.3, 7.14, 7.03 34,Wis-Eau Claire,____________________ 8 11 4, -0.1, 7.2, 7.10, 6.80 35,Augsburg,__________________________ 7 8 4, -0.1, 7.2, 7.10, 6.94 36,St Anselm,_________________________ 6 7 3, -0.1, 7.1, 7.08, 7.12 37,Trinity,___________________________ 8 8 4, 0.0, 7.1, 7.08, 7.25 38,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 10 10 1, 0.0, 7.1, 7.06, 6.52 39,Wentworth,_________________________ 11 7 3, 0.2, 6.8, 7.02, 7.18 40,Potsdam,___________________________ 5 16 1, -0.5, 7.5, 7.01, 6.60 41,Finlandia,_________________________ 14 7 0, 0.3, 6.7, 7.01, 6.61 42,Cortland,__________________________ 7 13 2, -0.3, 7.3, 6.98, 6.86 43,Williams,__________________________ 6 11 2, -0.3, 7.2, 6.97, 6.59 44,Conn College,______________________ 7 12 1, -0.3, 7.2, 6.92, 6.99 45,Morrisville,_______________________ 4 9 0, -0.4, 7.2, 6.85, 6.67 46,Hamilton,__________________________ 6 13 1, -0.4, 7.2, 6.85, 7.18 47,Wis-Stevens Point,_________________ 6 15 2, -0.4, 7.2, 6.83, 6.84 48,St John's,_________________________ 7 13 1, -0.3, 7.1, 6.82, 6.96 49,St Mary's,_________________________ 7 11 1, -0.2, 7.0, 6.78, 6.98 50,St Olaf,___________________________ 7 12 2, -0.2, 7.0, 6.78, 6.86 51,Lawrence,__________________________ 11 9 1, 0.1, 6.7, 6.75, 7.20 52,Salem State,_______________________ 8 13 0, -0.2, 7.0, 6.75, 6.96 53,Marian,____________________________ 8 10 3, -0.1, 6.8, 6.73, 7.13 54,Fitchburg State,___________________ 12 7 2, 0.2, 6.5, 6.73, 6.83 55,Hamline,___________________________ 7 12 0, -0.3, 6.9, 6.68, 6.95 56,Plymouth State,____________________ 8 11 1, -0.2, 6.8, 6.66, 6.83 57,Lake Forest,_______________________ 3 17 3, -0.6, 7.2, 6.61, 6.63 58,Lebanon Valley,____________________ 2 20 1, -0.8, 7.4, 6.61, 6.90 59,Johnson and Wales,_________________ 10 9 1, 0.1, 6.6, 6.60, 6.50 60,Nichols,___________________________ 11 9 1, 0.1, 6.5, 6.59, 6.22 61,So New Hampshire,__________________ 7 7 1, 0.0, 6.5, 6.52, 6.45 62,Tufts,_____________________________ 5 15 0, -0.5, 7.0, 6.51, 6.46 63,Concordia,_________________________ 6 13 0, -0.4, 6.8, 6.45, 5.95 64,Mass-Boston,_______________________ 4 16 1, -0.6, 7.0, 6.42, 6.18 65,Salve Regina,______________________ 7 12 1, -0.3, 6.6, 6.33, 6.48 66,St Michael's,______________________ 2 13 0, -0.7, 7.0, 6.31, 6.19 67,Stonehill,_________________________ 4 9 0, -0.4, 6.6, 6.18, 6.57 68,Minn-Crookston,____________________ 3 13 2, -0.6, 6.7, 6.18, 5.82 69,Western NE College,________________ 8 12 0, -0.2, 6.3, 6.13, 5.74 70,Suffolk,___________________________ 6 13 1, -0.4, 6.4, 6.08, 6.63 71,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 3 8 2, -0.4, 6.5, 6.07, 5.90 72,Worcester State,___________________ 6 12 1, -0.3, 6.3, 6.03, 5.92 73,Northland,_________________________ 0 20 1, -1.0, 6.9, 5.90, 6.01 74,Assumption,________________________ 2 12 0, -0.7, 6.6, 5.87, 5.80 75,Becker,____________________________ 1 11 2, -0.7, 6.5, 5.82, 5.70 76,Framingham State,__________________ 2 17 1, -0.8, 6.4, 5.68, 5.17 Link to the 2005-2006 Final Rankings . The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is reached (convergence). One effect often noticed is that a team's rating can change slightly without playing due to previous opponents playing which affects their rating and their opponent's rating, etc. The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a neutral site between those two teams. It should be noted that these rankings are an average performance value for each team for the entire season, all games are equally weighted, so a team's latest game may make up only 1/40th of a teams rating at the end of the season. Games that go to shootouts for decision are considered ties for ratings purposes. Actually, there are two different rankings listed. The first is as described above with the maximum goal differential used per game set at 7. This ordering ends up similar to CCHP, although differences do arise due to CCHP considering home ice advantage and CCHP not using a goal differential limit. The second ranking sets maximum goal differential at 1, thereby just considering whether the game was won, lost, or tied (and strength of opponent). This was done because the NCAA has indicated that it does not want to consider goal differential in the selection process. Note that the Total column in the GD=1 ranking is therefore in win percentage units rather than goal units. A rated .01 ahead of B can be interpreted as saying that if these two teams played exclusively against each other, A's predicted winning percentage is 1 percentage point higher than B's (i.e. A's predicted winning percentage vs. B would be .495, B's against A would be .505). However, since the teams do not play exclusively against the other it is actually a little bit more complex than above as teams can be ranked as high as 1.0 above their average opponent (if they were undefeated and untied) and as low as 1.0 below their average opponent (if they lost all of their games). Not surprisingly, the ordering ends up very similar to KRACH . Links to other ratings: High School Rankings for 25 States High School National Rankings New England Prep Midget Minor AAA Midget Major AAA Men's NCAA D1 USHL NAHL ACHA College Club USHSHO.com High School Ice Hockey Forums
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