Scores (sorted by team) through February 14, 2011 courtesy of USCHO.com . Disclaimer: The D3 rankings are new and it is unclear to me how well connected the East/West schedules are and therefore still unclear how accurate the relative rankings between regions are. Previous Rankings New ratings will be posted each week, time permitting. Maximum Goal Differential = 4 See Rankings Without Considering Goal Differential Below RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Oswego,____________________________ 20 3 0, 1.8, 8.3, 10.09, 8.81 2,Elmira,____________________________ 15 5 3, 1.3, 8.5, 9.85, 11.10 3,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 16 7 1, 1.2, 8.2, 9.36, 9.63 4,Hobart,____________________________ 13 8 2, 0.7, 8.5, 9.16, 7.90 5,Utica,_____________________________ 17 7 0, 1.1, 8.1, 9.14, 9.21 6,Manhattanville,____________________ 14 8 1, 0.8, 8.3, 9.11, 8.56 7,Castleton,_________________________ 19 3 1, 2.0, 7.1, 9.06, 8.08 8,Geneseo,___________________________ 15 6 2, 1.2, 7.8, 9.04, 8.78 9,Norwich,___________________________ 15 5 3, 1.3, 7.6, 8.96, 9.45 10,Neumann,___________________________ 12 7 5, 0.5, 8.4, 8.84, 9.05 11,St Norbert,________________________ 20 4 1, 1.4, 7.4, 8.82, 8.30 12,Buffalo State,_____________________ 11 10 3, 0.4, 8.1, 8.49, 8.71 13,Fredonia,__________________________ 11 12 1, 0.4, 8.0, 8.37, 8.74 14,Hamilton,__________________________ 12 6 4, 1.0, 7.3, 8.30, 7.83 15,Morrisville,_______________________ 11 10 1, -0.1, 8.3, 8.22, 7.92 16,Adrian,____________________________ 19 3 1, 2.3, 5.9, 8.21, 8.03 17,Wisconsin-Eau Claire,______________ 14 10 1, 0.5, 7.7, 8.19, 8.23 18,Wisconsin-Superior,________________ 13 11 1, 0.4, 7.6, 8.02, 6.94 19,Williams,__________________________ 13 6 3, 0.9, 7.1, 8.01, 7.89 20,Wisconsin-Stevens Point,___________ 12 12 1, 0.2, 7.7, 7.99, 8.90 21,Middlebury,________________________ 11 6 5, 0.7, 7.2, 7.97, 8.70 22,Wisconsin-Stout,___________________ 15 10 0, 0.4, 7.5, 7.93, 9.33 23,Bowdoin,___________________________ 13 7 1, 0.9, 7.0, 7.93, 6.12 24,Amherst,___________________________ 11 7 4, 0.7, 7.2, 7.90, 9.11 25,Salem State,_______________________ 14 5 2, 1.5, 6.4, 7.85, 8.88 26,Hamline,___________________________ 13 5 5, 0.7, 7.1, 7.80, 6.21 27,Milwaukee School of Engineering,___ 19 3 1, 2.0, 5.8, 7.75, 7.47 28,St Thomas,_________________________ 14 9 2, 0.8, 6.9, 7.69, 8.83 29,Wisconsin-River Falls,_____________ 11 12 2, 0.2, 7.4, 7.61, 8.74 30,Curry,_____________________________ 13 7 3, 0.8, 6.7, 7.49, 7.84 31,Marian,____________________________ 17 6 0, 1.5, 6.0, 7.48, 7.07 32,Skidmore,__________________________ 9 12 2, -0.2, 7.6, 7.41, 7.72 33,Massachusetts-Boston,______________ 14 9 0, 0.8, 6.6, 7.37, 6.00 34,Trinity,___________________________ 10 8 3, 0.2, 7.2, 7.34, 9.26 35,Fitchburg State,___________________ 13 7 1, 1.2, 6.1, 7.34, 6.59 36,St Anselm,_________________________ 10 8 2, 0.6, 6.8, 7.31, 6.97 37,Colby,_____________________________ 9 10 2, 0.1, 7.2, 7.30, 8.52 38,Augsburg,__________________________ 12 8 3, 0.6, 6.6, 7.17, 8.10 39,Potsdam,___________________________ 6 16 1, -1.1, 8.3, 7.13, 6.83 40,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 13 8 2, 0.5, 6.6, 7.12, 6.39 41,Wesleyan,__________________________ 8 9 3, -0.1, 7.2, 7.07, 7.05 42,Wentworth,_________________________ 11 8 4, 1.0, 6.1, 7.03, 8.01 43,Plymouth State,____________________ 13 4 5, 1.0, 5.9, 6.99, 5.66 44,Cortland,__________________________ 5 16 2, -1.7, 8.7, 6.97, 8.13 45,St Olaf,___________________________ 9 10 4, 0.1, 6.8, 6.92, 6.88 46,Babson,____________________________ 9 11 3, -0.3, 7.1, 6.83, 7.12 47,Massachusetts-Dartmouth,___________ 15 6 1, 0.8, 6.0, 6.80, 7.98 48,St Scholastica,____________________ 9 15 1, -0.9, 7.6, 6.75, 5.73 49,Brockport,_________________________ 4 16 3, -1.5, 8.2, 6.66, 7.79 50,Southern Maine,____________________ 6 12 4, -0.9, 7.5, 6.65, 6.81 51,Concordia (Minn),__________________ 10 9 4, -0.1, 6.6, 6.51, 7.61 52,New England College,_______________ 7 14 2, -0.9, 7.2, 6.37, 6.15 53,St Michael's,______________________ 8 13 1, -0.7, 7.0, 6.32, 5.78 54,St John's,_________________________ 6 15 2, -0.9, 7.2, 6.31, 7.39 55,Connecticut College,_______________ 7 12 3, -0.8, 7.1, 6.23, 5.47 56,Johnson and Wales,_________________ 13 9 1, 0.3, 5.9, 6.17, 7.06 57,Lawrence,__________________________ 11 11 1, -0.3, 6.4, 6.14, 5.99 58,Nichols,___________________________ 11 11 1, 0.1, 5.9, 5.96, 3.60 59,Worcester State,___________________ 9 9 3, 0.0, 5.9, 5.93, 5.88 60,St Mary's,_________________________ 5 16 2, -1.2, 7.1, 5.92, 5.33 61,Bethel,____________________________ 4 15 4, -1.2, 6.9, 5.69, 4.23 62,Tufts,_____________________________ 5 15 1, -1.6, 7.1, 5.46, 3.94 63,Westfield State,___________________ 4 15 2, -1.0, 6.4, 5.36, 5.59 64,Becker,____________________________ 8 12 3, -0.5, 5.8, 5.25, 5.89 65,University of New England,_________ 5 17 0, -1.5, 6.8, 5.22, 6.31 66,Lake Forest,_______________________ 4 18 1, -1.5, 6.7, 5.21, 5.48 67,Northland,_________________________ 8 13 2, -0.8, 5.9, 5.11, 4.61 68,Suffolk,___________________________ 8 14 0, -1.0, 5.9, 4.89, 5.39 69,Assumption,________________________ 9 13 0, -0.8, 5.7, 4.84, 5.04 70,Western New England College,_______ 6 16 1, -1.3, 6.1, 4.80, 4.05 71,Stonehill,_________________________ 5 14 1, -0.8, 5.2, 4.49, 3.28 72,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 6 17 0, -1.9, 6.3, 4.40, 5.60 73,Framingham State,__________________ 4 14 1, -2.0, 6.4, 4.38, 4.38 74,Finlandia,_________________________ 2 20 0, -2.5, 6.4, 3.94, 4.48 75,Concordia (Wis),___________________ 1 21 1, -2.9, 6.8, 3.90, 4.61 76,So New Hampshire,__________________ 4 15 2, -2.0, 5.5, 3.47, 2.07 77,Salve Regina,______________________ 2 19 1, -2.6, 6.0, 3.32, 3.17 Maximum Goal Differential = 1 (i.e. just considers W, L, T and schedule strength) RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Oswego,____________________________ 20 3 0, 0.7, 7.4, 8.17, 7.93 2,Elmira,____________________________ 15 5 3, 0.4, 7.5, 7.97, 8.59 3,St Norbert,________________________ 20 4 1, 0.6, 7.2, 7.79, 7.66 4,Utica,_____________________________ 17 7 0, 0.4, 7.4, 7.78, 7.90 5,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 16 7 1, 0.4, 7.4, 7.76, 7.73 6,Hobart,____________________________ 13 8 2, 0.2, 7.5, 7.74, 7.42 7,Manhattanville,____________________ 14 8 1, 0.3, 7.4, 7.69, 7.24 8,Neumann,___________________________ 12 7 5, 0.2, 7.5, 7.69, 7.78 9,Geneseo,___________________________ 15 6 2, 0.4, 7.3, 7.68, 7.82 10,Castleton,_________________________ 19 3 1, 0.7, 7.0, 7.67, 7.25 11,Norwich,___________________________ 15 5 3, 0.4, 7.1, 7.58, 7.83 12,Morrisville,_______________________ 11 10 1, 0.0, 7.4, 7.49, 7.34 13,Wisconsin-Eau Claire,______________ 14 10 1, 0.2, 7.3, 7.43, 7.34 14,Buffalo State,_____________________ 11 10 3, 0.0, 7.4, 7.42, 7.53 15,Adrian,____________________________ 19 3 1, 0.7, 6.7, 7.42, 7.22 16,Wisconsin-Stout,___________________ 15 10 0, 0.2, 7.2, 7.41, 8.00 17,Hamline,___________________________ 13 5 5, 0.3, 7.0, 7.36, 6.71 18,Milwaukee School of Engineering,___ 19 3 1, 0.7, 6.7, 7.36, 7.38 19,Hamilton,__________________________ 12 6 4, 0.3, 7.1, 7.34, 7.46 20,Wisconsin-Superior,________________ 13 11 1, 0.1, 7.2, 7.32, 6.79 21,Fredonia,__________________________ 11 12 1, -0.0, 7.4, 7.32, 7.35 22,Williams,__________________________ 13 6 3, 0.3, 7.0, 7.31, 7.51 23,Wisconsin-Stevens Point,___________ 12 12 1, 0.0, 7.3, 7.30, 7.66 24,Middlebury,________________________ 11 6 5, 0.2, 7.0, 7.25, 7.72 25,Marian,____________________________ 17 6 0, 0.5, 6.8, 7.24, 7.06 26,Bowdoin,___________________________ 13 7 1, 0.3, 7.0, 7.24, 6.37 27,Amherst,___________________________ 11 7 4, 0.2, 7.0, 7.21, 7.55 28,Salem State,_______________________ 14 5 2, 0.4, 6.8, 7.19, 7.39 29,St Thomas,_________________________ 14 9 2, 0.2, 7.0, 7.18, 7.47 30,Curry,_____________________________ 13 7 3, 0.3, 6.9, 7.16, 7.11 31,Wisconsin-River Falls,_____________ 11 12 2, -0.0, 7.2, 7.14, 7.79 32,Cortland,__________________________ 5 16 2, -0.5, 7.6, 7.09, 7.48 33,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 13 8 2, 0.2, 6.9, 7.08, 6.85 34,Trinity,___________________________ 10 8 3, 0.1, 7.0, 7.08, 7.84 35,Massachusetts-Boston,______________ 14 9 0, 0.2, 6.8, 7.05, 6.40 36,Augsburg,__________________________ 12 8 3, 0.2, 6.9, 7.05, 7.66 37,Massachusetts-Dartmouth,___________ 15 6 1, 0.4, 6.6, 7.03, 7.34 38,Plymouth State,____________________ 13 4 5, 0.4, 6.6, 7.03, 6.62 39,Skidmore,__________________________ 9 12 2, -0.1, 7.2, 7.02, 7.00 40,St Scholastica,____________________ 9 15 1, -0.2, 7.3, 7.01, 6.40 41,Potsdam,___________________________ 6 16 1, -0.4, 7.4, 7.00, 6.90 42,St Anselm,_________________________ 10 8 2, 0.1, 6.9, 6.99, 6.90 43,Fitchburg State,___________________ 13 7 1, 0.3, 6.7, 6.98, 6.62 44,Colby,_____________________________ 9 10 2, -0.0, 7.0, 6.97, 7.58 45,Wesleyan,__________________________ 8 9 3, -0.1, 7.0, 6.95, 7.09 46,Concordia (Minn),__________________ 10 9 4, 0.0, 6.9, 6.92, 7.31 47,Babson,____________________________ 9 11 3, -0.1, 7.0, 6.90, 6.57 48,Lawrence,__________________________ 11 11 1, 0.0, 6.9, 6.90, 6.77 49,St Olaf,___________________________ 9 10 4, -0.0, 6.9, 6.89, 6.59 50,Brockport,_________________________ 4 16 3, -0.5, 7.4, 6.88, 7.32 51,Southern Maine,____________________ 6 12 4, -0.3, 7.1, 6.84, 7.03 52,Wentworth,_________________________ 11 8 4, 0.1, 6.7, 6.82, 7.09 53,Johnson and Wales,_________________ 13 9 1, 0.2, 6.6, 6.78, 7.35 54,St Michael's,______________________ 8 13 1, -0.2, 7.0, 6.74, 6.44 55,Connecticut College,_______________ 7 12 3, -0.2, 7.0, 6.74, 6.38 56,New England College,_______________ 7 14 2, -0.3, 7.0, 6.73, 6.52 57,St John's,_________________________ 6 15 2, -0.4, 7.1, 6.68, 7.16 58,Nichols,___________________________ 11 11 1, 0.0, 6.6, 6.63, 5.93 59,Worcester State,___________________ 9 9 3, 0.0, 6.6, 6.62, 6.41 60,St Mary's,_________________________ 5 16 2, -0.5, 7.0, 6.57, 6.33 61,Northland,_________________________ 8 13 2, -0.2, 6.7, 6.51, 6.41 62,Bethel,____________________________ 4 15 4, -0.5, 7.0, 6.50, 6.14 63,Tufts,_____________________________ 5 15 1, -0.5, 7.0, 6.50, 6.25 64,Becker,____________________________ 8 12 3, -0.2, 6.6, 6.41, 6.73 65,Lake Forest,_______________________ 4 18 1, -0.6, 7.0, 6.38, 6.36 66,Suffolk,___________________________ 8 14 0, -0.3, 6.6, 6.37, 6.45 67,University of New England,_________ 5 17 0, -0.5, 6.9, 6.35, 6.64 68,Assumption,________________________ 9 13 0, -0.2, 6.5, 6.33, 6.22 69,Westfield State,___________________ 4 15 2, -0.5, 6.8, 6.29, 6.62 70,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 6 17 0, -0.5, 6.8, 6.27, 6.54 71,Western New England College,_______ 6 16 1, -0.4, 6.7, 6.26, 6.01 72,Framingham State,__________________ 4 14 1, -0.5, 6.7, 6.21, 6.39 73,Concordia (Wis),___________________ 1 21 1, -0.9, 7.0, 6.13, 6.41 74,Finlandia,_________________________ 2 20 0, -0.8, 6.9, 6.07, 6.39 75,Stonehill,_________________________ 5 14 1, -0.5, 6.5, 6.01, 5.93 76,So New Hampshire,__________________ 4 15 2, -0.5, 6.5, 5.97, 5.47 77,Salve Regina,______________________ 2 19 1, -0.8, 6.6, 5.87, 5.92 Link to the 2005-2006 Final D1 Rankings . The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is reached (convergence). One effect often noticed is that a team's rating can change slightly without playing due to previous opponents playing which affects their rating and their opponent's rating, etc. The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a neutral site between those two teams. It should be noted that these rankings are an average performance value for each team for the entire season, all games are equally weighted, so a team's latest game may make up only 1/40th of a teams rating at the end of the season. Games that go to shootouts for decision are considered ties for ratings purposes. Actually, there are two different rankings listed. The first is as described above with the maximum goal differential used per game set at 7. This ordering ends up similar to CCHP, although differences do arise due to CCHP considering home ice advantage and CCHP not using a goal differential limit. The second ranking sets maximum goal differential at 1, thereby just considering whether the game was won, lost, or tied (and strength of opponent). This was done because the NCAA has indicated that it does not want to consider goal differential in the selection process. Note that the Total column in the GD=1 ranking is therefore in win percentage units rather than goal units. A rated .01 ahead of B can be interpreted as saying that if these two teams played exclusively against each other, A's predicted winning percentage is 1 percentage point higher than B's (i.e. A's predicted winning percentage vs. B would be .495, B's against A would be .505). However, since the teams do not play exclusively against the other it is actually a little bit more complex than above as teams can be ranked as high as 1.0 above their average opponent (if they were undefeated and untied) and as low as 1.0 below their average opponent (if they lost all of their games). Not surprisingly, the ordering ends up very similar to KRACH . Links to other ratings: High School Rankings for 25 States High School National Rankings New England Prep Midget Minor AAA Midget Major AAA Men's NCAA D1 USHL NAHL ACHA College Club USHSHO.com High School Ice Hockey Forums
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