Scores (sorted by team) through February 16, 2008 courtesy of USCHO.com . Disclaimer: The D3 rankings are new and it is unclear to me how well connected the East/West schedules are and therefore still unclear how accurate the relative rankings between regions are. Previous Rankings New ratings will be posted each week, time permitting. Maximum Goal Differential = 7 See Rankings Without Considering Goal Differential Below * - Indicates team rating based on only two scores RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,St Norbert,________________________ 20 1 4, 2.3, 8.2, 10.48, 10.49 2,St Thomas,_________________________ 16 5 2, 2.0, 8.3, 10.39, 9.80 3,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 21 4 0, 2.6, 7.7, 10.24, 8.17 4,Elmira,____________________________ 18 1 4, 2.3, 7.8, 10.08, 10.56 5,Adrian,____________________________ 22 3 0, 4.0, 6.0, 10.00, 9.98 6,Oswego,____________________________ 17 5 2, 2.2, 7.7, 9.87, 10.80 7,Manhattanville,____________________ 15 5 3, 2.0, 7.8, 9.82, 9.05 8,Wis-River Falls,___________________ 16 6 3, 1.5, 8.3, 9.76, 8.64 9,Norwich,___________________________ 18 5 0, 2.4, 7.3, 9.68, 8.74 10,Wis-Stout,_________________________ 15 7 3, 1.5, 8.1, 9.55, 10.29 11,Neumann,___________________________ 16 7 0, 1.5, 7.9, 9.39, 8.13 12,Hobart,____________________________ 16 6 1, 1.8, 7.6, 9.39, 9.56 13,St John's,_________________________ 11 9 2, 0.8, 8.6, 9.37, 9.50 14,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 11 11 1, 0.6, 8.7, 9.26, 9.18 15,Wis-Stevens Point,_________________ 14 7 4, 1.0, 8.1, 9.10, 8.60 16,Bowdoin,___________________________ 16 5 0, 2.1, 7.0, 9.06, 9.82 17,Wis-Superior,______________________ 12 5 8, 0.8, 8.3, 9.04, 8.80 18,Bethel,____________________________ 16 6 2, 1.1, 7.8, 8.97, 9.19 19,Hamline,___________________________ 13 6 4, 1.1, 7.7, 8.87, 9.11 20,Babson,____________________________ 16 5 3, 1.4, 7.3, 8.69, 8.49 21,Utica,_____________________________ 13 9 1, 0.6, 8.1, 8.62, 10.48 22,Fredonia,__________________________ 14 8 3, 0.7, 7.8, 8.46, 9.66 23,Middlebury,________________________ 14 6 2, 0.9, 7.5, 8.35, 6.21 24,St Scholastica,____________________ 9 12 4, -0.2, 8.5, 8.34, 7.74 25,Wis-Eau Claire,____________________ 10 14 1, -0.2, 8.5, 8.33, 9.76 26,New England College,_______________ 13 6 3, 1.4, 6.7, 8.16, 8.51 27,St Mary's,_________________________ 8 13 2, -0.5, 8.5, 8.05, 6.94 28,Amherst,___________________________ 12 7 3, 0.7, 7.4, 8.04, 8.13 29,St Olaf,___________________________ 8 11 4, -0.0, 8.0, 7.99, 8.38 30,Colby,_____________________________ 12 8 1, 0.7, 7.2, 7.94, 6.96 31,Castleton,_________________________ 11 10 2, 0.6, 7.2, 7.75, 9.83 32,Southern Maine,____________________ 14 6 3, 0.9, 6.7, 7.55, 7.21 33,Marian,____________________________ 15 9 1, 0.9, 6.6, 7.51, 7.07 34,Buffalo State,_____________________ 10 11 4, -0.1, 7.5, 7.36, 7.88 35,Salem State,_______________________ 13 9 1, 0.9, 6.4, 7.26, 6.79 36,Curry,_____________________________ 14 9 1, 1.2, 6.1, 7.23, 6.67 37,Geneseo,___________________________ 8 17 0, -0.9, 8.1, 7.16, 6.47 38,Trinity,___________________________ 11 9 2, -0.1, 7.1, 7.06, 5.59 39,Brockport,_________________________ 7 15 3, -0.4, 7.4, 7.03, 5.62 40,Finlandia,_________________________ 15 8 2, 1.1, 5.9, 7.02, 7.25 41,Conn College,______________________ 8 11 3, -0.2, 7.2, 7.02, 8.84 42,Cortland,__________________________ 11 11 3, -0.2, 7.2, 7.00, 6.98 43,Augsburg,__________________________ 5 16 2, -1.7, 8.5, 6.89, 7.67 44,Potsdam,___________________________ 9 13 4, -1.1, 7.9, 6.83, 7.85 45,Williams,__________________________ 8 10 4, -0.6, 7.5, 6.82, 7.66 46,Mass-Dartmouth,____________________ 13 8 1, 1.8, 5.0, 6.78, 6.70 47,Milw School of Eng,________________ 13 12 0, -0.0, 6.6, 6.55, 5.83 48,St Anselm,_________________________ 6 9 3, -0.6, 7.0, 6.49, 7.31 49,Wesleyan,__________________________ 7 10 3, -1.1, 7.4, 6.30, 6.74 50,Hamilton,__________________________ 6 16 1, -1.4, 7.5, 6.14, 7.25 51,Nichols,___________________________ 17 5 1, 1.6, 4.5, 6.04, 5.57 52,Mass-Boston,_______________________ 9 12 2, -0.7, 6.6, 5.99, 6.72 53,Lake Forest,_______________________ 3 21 1, -2.7, 8.5, 5.77, 6.03 54,Lawrence,__________________________ 10 12 3, -0.4, 6.2, 5.73, 6.59 55,St Michael's,______________________ 6 11 1, -1.3, 7.0, 5.65, 4.74 56,Skidmore,__________________________ 6 15 2, -1.6, 7.2, 5.62, 4.97 57,Tufts,_____________________________ 6 15 1, -1.7, 7.3, 5.61, 3.86 58,Morrisville,_______________________ 5 20 0, -1.7, 7.3, 5.53, 5.48 59,Fitchburg State,___________________ 11 8 4, 1.0, 4.4, 5.45, 4.66 60,Plymouth State,____________________ 8 10 3, 0.1, 5.2, 5.34, 5.93 61,Concordia MN,______________________ 1 20 1, -3.2, 8.4, 5.18, 5.98 62,Wentworth,_________________________ 9 12 1, -1.0, 5.9, 4.92, 6.56 63,Becker,____________________________ 10 10 2, -0.3, 4.7, 4.42, 4.60 64,Suffolk,___________________________ 10 12 0, 0.1, 4.2, 4.35, 2.60 65,Johnson and Wales,_________________ 6 16 0, -0.7, 5.0, 4.27, 4.75 66,Lebanon Valley,____________________ 1 21 1, -3.9, 8.2, 4.24, 3.72 67,Minn-Crookston,____________________ 6 18 0, -2.1, 6.3, 4.20, 4.10 68,Salve Regina,______________________ 8 9 3, -0.7, 4.9, 4.16, 4.54 69,Stonehill,_________________________ 6 6 1, -0.6, 4.6, 3.94, 4.04 70,So New Hampshire,__________________ 6 9 1, -1.1, 4.7, 3.59, 1.40 71,Northland,_________________________ 4 21 0, -3.4, 6.7, 3.36, 2.38 72,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 4 10 0, -1.0, 4.2, 3.20, 2.58 73,Western NE College,________________ 6 14 2, -1.7, 4.9, 3.13, 3.94 74,Concordia WI,______________________ 2 23 0, -4.1, 7.3, 3.13, 4.32 75,Assumption,________________________ 5 11 0, -2.0, 4.5, 2.54, 2.91 76,Framingham State,__________________ 1 22 1, -3.2, 4.9, 1.78, 3.06 77,Worcester State,___________________ 2 19 0, -4.1, 4.9, 0.77, 1.95 Maximum Goal Differential = 1 (i.e. just considers W, L, T and schedule strength) RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,St Norbert,________________________ 20 1 4, 0.8, 7.2, 7.96, 7.88 2,Elmira,____________________________ 18 1 4, 0.7, 7.2, 7.91, 7.82 3,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 21 4 0, 0.7, 7.1, 7.81, 7.21 4,Norwich,___________________________ 18 5 0, 0.6, 7.2, 7.73, 7.37 5,St Thomas,_________________________ 16 5 2, 0.5, 7.2, 7.68, 7.44 6,Manhattanville,____________________ 15 5 3, 0.4, 7.2, 7.66, 7.21 7,Wis-River Falls,___________________ 16 6 3, 0.4, 7.2, 7.63, 7.13 8,Oswego,____________________________ 17 5 2, 0.5, 7.1, 7.62, 8.01 9,Neumann,___________________________ 16 7 0, 0.4, 7.2, 7.61, 7.62 10,Bowdoin,___________________________ 16 5 0, 0.5, 7.1, 7.60, 7.36 11,Adrian,____________________________ 22 3 0, 0.8, 6.8, 7.59, 7.73 12,Babson,____________________________ 16 5 3, 0.5, 7.1, 7.59, 7.72 13,Hobart,____________________________ 16 6 1, 0.4, 7.1, 7.58, 7.52 14,Middlebury,________________________ 14 6 2, 0.4, 7.2, 7.54, 6.64 15,Wis-Superior,______________________ 12 5 8, 0.3, 7.2, 7.52, 7.67 16,Bethel,____________________________ 16 6 2, 0.4, 7.1, 7.51, 7.70 17,Wis-Stout,_________________________ 15 7 3, 0.3, 7.2, 7.50, 7.55 18,Wis-Stevens Point,_________________ 14 7 4, 0.3, 7.2, 7.47, 7.19 19,Utica,_____________________________ 13 9 1, 0.2, 7.3, 7.44, 7.81 20,Amherst,___________________________ 12 7 3, 0.2, 7.2, 7.39, 7.44 21,Fredonia,__________________________ 14 8 3, 0.2, 7.1, 7.39, 7.90 22,Hamline,___________________________ 13 6 4, 0.3, 7.1, 7.38, 7.68 23,St John's,_________________________ 11 9 2, 0.1, 7.3, 7.36, 7.51 24,Colby,_____________________________ 12 8 1, 0.2, 7.2, 7.35, 7.11 25,Southern Maine,____________________ 14 6 3, 0.3, 7.0, 7.34, 7.24 26,New England College,_______________ 13 6 3, 0.3, 7.0, 7.33, 7.07 27,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 11 11 1, 0.0, 7.3, 7.30, 7.39 28,Trinity,___________________________ 11 9 2, 0.1, 7.1, 7.23, 6.95 29,Marian,____________________________ 15 9 1, 0.2, 7.0, 7.19, 7.01 30,St Scholastica,____________________ 9 12 4, -0.1, 7.3, 7.19, 7.13 31,Castleton,_________________________ 11 10 2, 0.0, 7.1, 7.14, 8.17 32,Wis-Eau Claire,____________________ 10 14 1, -0.2, 7.3, 7.13, 7.46 33,Salem State,_______________________ 13 9 1, 0.2, 6.9, 7.11, 6.99 34,Williams,__________________________ 8 10 4, -0.1, 7.2, 7.10, 7.40 35,Finlandia,_________________________ 15 8 2, 0.3, 6.8, 7.08, 7.12 36,St Mary's,_________________________ 8 13 2, -0.2, 7.3, 7.04, 6.88 37,Wesleyan,__________________________ 7 10 3, -0.2, 7.2, 7.04, 6.99 38,Potsdam,___________________________ 9 13 4, -0.2, 7.2, 7.02, 6.97 39,St Olaf,___________________________ 8 11 4, -0.1, 7.2, 7.02, 7.10 40,Buffalo State,_____________________ 10 11 4, -0.0, 7.1, 7.02, 6.97 41,Conn College,______________________ 8 11 3, -0.1, 7.2, 7.01, 7.82 42,Cortland,__________________________ 11 11 3, 0.0, 7.0, 7.01, 7.13 43,Curry,_____________________________ 14 9 1, 0.2, 6.8, 7.00, 7.34 44,Milw School of Eng,________________ 13 12 0, 0.0, 6.9, 6.99, 6.96 45,Nichols,___________________________ 17 5 1, 0.5, 6.4, 6.91, 6.86 46,St Anselm,_________________________ 6 9 3, -0.2, 7.1, 6.90, 7.47 47,Geneseo,___________________________ 8 17 0, -0.4, 7.2, 6.87, 6.80 48,Mass-Boston,_______________________ 9 12 2, -0.1, 7.0, 6.84, 6.80 49,St Michael's,______________________ 6 11 1, -0.3, 7.1, 6.80, 6.57 50,Augsburg,__________________________ 5 16 2, -0.5, 7.3, 6.78, 6.76 51,Hamilton,__________________________ 6 16 1, -0.4, 7.2, 6.78, 7.39 52,Lawrence,__________________________ 10 12 3, -0.1, 6.9, 6.77, 7.22 53,Mass-Dartmouth,____________________ 13 8 1, 0.2, 6.5, 6.77, 6.82 54,Brockport,_________________________ 7 15 3, -0.3, 7.1, 6.76, 6.67 55,Tufts,_____________________________ 6 15 1, -0.4, 7.2, 6.75, 6.10 56,Skidmore,__________________________ 6 15 2, -0.4, 7.1, 6.72, 6.31 57,Wentworth,_________________________ 9 12 1, -0.1, 6.8, 6.62, 6.86 58,Lake Forest,_______________________ 3 21 1, -0.7, 7.3, 6.58, 6.96 59,Fitchburg State,___________________ 11 8 4, 0.1, 6.4, 6.53, 6.32 60,Plymouth State,____________________ 8 10 3, -0.1, 6.6, 6.50, 6.37 61,Becker,____________________________ 10 10 2, 0.0, 6.5, 6.45, 6.58 62,Salve Regina,______________________ 8 9 3, -0.1, 6.5, 6.42, 6.76 63,Morrisville,_______________________ 5 20 0, -0.6, 7.0, 6.42, 6.51 64,Lebanon Valley,____________________ 1 21 1, -0.9, 7.3, 6.40, 6.47 65,Stonehill,_________________________ 6 6 1, 0.0, 6.4, 6.40, 6.51 66,Minn-Crookston,____________________ 6 18 0, -0.5, 6.9, 6.39, 6.10 67,Concordia MN,______________________ 1 20 1, -0.9, 7.2, 6.37, 6.26 68,Northland,_________________________ 4 21 0, -0.7, 7.0, 6.29, 6.08 69,Suffolk,___________________________ 10 12 0, -0.1, 6.4, 6.27, 5.48 70,Concordia WI,______________________ 2 23 0, -0.8, 7.1, 6.24, 6.31 71,So New Hampshire,__________________ 6 9 1, -0.2, 6.4, 6.24, 5.79 72,Western NE College,________________ 6 14 2, -0.4, 6.5, 6.12, 6.25 73,Johnson and Wales,_________________ 6 16 0, -0.5, 6.5, 6.06, 6.29 74,Assumption,________________________ 5 11 0, -0.4, 6.4, 6.00, 5.89 75,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 4 10 0, -0.4, 6.3, 5.92, 5.77 76,Worcester State,___________________ 2 19 0, -0.8, 6.4, 5.64, 5.64 77,Framingham State,__________________ 1 22 1, -0.9, 6.5, 5.63, 5.73 Link to the 2005-2006 Final D1 Rankings . The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is reached (convergence). One effect often noticed is that a team's rating can change slightly without playing due to previous opponents playing which affects their rating and their opponent's rating, etc. The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a neutral site between those two teams. It should be noted that these rankings are an average performance value for each team for the entire season, all games are equally weighted, so a team's latest game may make up only 1/40th of a teams rating at the end of the season. Games that go to shootouts for decision are considered ties for ratings purposes. Actually, there are two different rankings listed. The first is as described above with the maximum goal differential used per game set at 7. This ordering ends up similar to CCHP, although differences do arise due to CCHP considering home ice advantage and CCHP not using a goal differential limit. The second ranking sets maximum goal differential at 1, thereby just considering whether the game was won, lost, or tied (and strength of opponent). This was done because the NCAA has indicated that it does not want to consider goal differential in the selection process. Note that the Total column in the GD=1 ranking is therefore in win percentage units rather than goal units. A rated .01 ahead of B can be interpreted as saying that if these two teams played exclusively against each other, A's predicted winning percentage is 1 percentage point higher than B's (i.e. A's predicted winning percentage vs. B would be .495, B's against A would be .505). However, since the teams do not play exclusively against the other it is actually a little bit more complex than above as teams can be ranked as high as 1.0 above their average opponent (if they were undefeated and untied) and as low as 1.0 below their average opponent (if they lost all of their games). Not surprisingly, the ordering ends up very similar to KRACH . Links to other ratings: High School Rankings for 25 States High School National Rankings New England Prep Midget Minor AAA Midget Major AAA Men's NCAA D1 USHL NAHL ACHA College Club USHSHO.com High School Ice Hockey Forums
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