Scores (sorted by team) through February 24, 2007 courtesy of USCHO.com . Disclaimer: The D3 rankings are new and it is unclear to me how well connected the East/West schedules are and therefore still unclear how accurate the relative rankings between regions are. Previous Rankings New ratings will be posted each week, time permitting. Maximum Goal Differential = 7 See Rankings Without Considering Goal Differential Below RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Manhattanville,____________________ 19 1 5, 3.3, 8.2, 11.55, 10.38 2,Neumann,___________________________ 17 4 5, 2.0, 8.9, 10.95, 10.47 3,Oswego,____________________________ 20 3 3, 2.6, 8.2, 10.76, 9.60 4,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 14 7 6, 2.0, 8.4, 10.45, 12.72 5,Norwich,___________________________ 20 6 0, 2.3, 7.9, 10.16, 10.91 6,St Norbert,________________________ 23 3 2, 2.7, 7.3, 9.96, 9.07 7,Hobart,____________________________ 13 8 5, 1.1, 8.9, 9.94, 10.36 8,Utica,_____________________________ 13 9 3, 0.9, 9.0, 9.90, 10.48 9,Elmira,____________________________ 13 10 4, 0.4, 9.3, 9.67, 10.11 10,Bowdoin,___________________________ 15 6 3, 1.7, 7.5, 9.19, 9.67 11,Colby,_____________________________ 14 8 2, 1.5, 7.7, 9.17, 10.58 12,Middlebury,________________________ 15 7 3, 1.1, 8.0, 9.12, 10.93 13,Castleton,_________________________ 7 2 1, 1.4, 7.6, 9.04, 9.02 14,Babson,____________________________ 16 9 1, 1.0, 8.0, 9.02, 9.56 15,Geneseo,___________________________ 16 10 0, 0.5, 8.5, 8.98, 8.42 16,Castleton State,___________________ 10 3 3, 1.8, 7.1, 8.92, 10.11 17,Fredonia,__________________________ 14 9 4, 0.7, 8.2, 8.91, 8.73 18,Southern Maine,____________________ 15 9 2, 1.3, 7.6, 8.85, 7.70 19,Wis-Superior,______________________ 20 6 1, 1.7, 7.2, 8.84, 9.53 20,New England College,_______________ 16 9 1, 1.0, 7.7, 8.77, 11.11 21,Wis-River Falls,___________________ 21 5 2, 1.6, 7.1, 8.71, 9.62 22,Wis-Stout,_________________________ 21 5 2, 1.5, 7.2, 8.68, 7.77 23,Mass-Dartmouth,____________________ 23 2 1, 3.3, 5.1, 8.33, 7.69 24,Amherst,___________________________ 14 9 1, 0.5, 7.9, 8.31, 7.40 25,Skidmore,__________________________ 16 8 2, 0.6, 7.6, 8.18, 8.65 26,Curry,_____________________________ 16 8 2, 1.9, 6.3, 8.14, 6.93 27,Wesleyan,__________________________ 11 8 5, 0.3, 7.8, 8.11, 6.98 28,Trinity,___________________________ 8 13 4, 0.1, 8.0, 8.09, 6.35 29,Buffalo State,_____________________ 12 12 2, 0.2, 7.7, 7.89, 8.94 30,St Thomas,_________________________ 15 9 0, 1.0, 6.8, 7.80, 8.90 31,Bethel,____________________________ 15 9 1, 1.0, 6.7, 7.76, 7.16 32,Conn College,______________________ 10 13 2, -0.5, 8.1, 7.65, 8.15 33,St Anselm,_________________________ 7 10 3, -0.5, 8.1, 7.61, 7.17 34,St Scholastica,____________________ 15 11 2, 0.4, 7.1, 7.50, 7.61 35,Williams,__________________________ 8 14 2, -1.0, 8.4, 7.38, 6.28 36,Augsburg,__________________________ 12 9 4, 0.4, 6.8, 7.26, 7.66 37,Wis-Eau Claire,____________________ 9 14 4, -0.3, 7.5, 7.19, 7.01 38,Finlandia,_________________________ 17 8 0, 2.0, 5.1, 7.14, 8.75 39,Brockport,_________________________ 7 12 7, -1.2, 8.3, 7.12, 6.34 40,Cortland,__________________________ 8 14 3, -1.1, 8.1, 7.00, 8.15 41,Hamilton,__________________________ 7 16 1, -1.3, 8.2, 6.95, 6.61 42,Wentworth,_________________________ 14 8 3, 0.6, 6.2, 6.87, 7.22 43,Milw School of Eng,________________ 18 5 2, 1.6, 5.2, 6.87, 5.95 44,Potsdam,___________________________ 5 19 1, -2.4, 9.2, 6.75, 5.26 45,Salem State,_______________________ 9 17 0, -0.7, 7.4, 6.72, 5.25 46,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 11 12 2, -0.2, 6.8, 6.58, 5.82 47,St John's,_________________________ 9 14 2, -0.4, 6.8, 6.40, 5.17 48,St Olaf,___________________________ 10 13 2, -0.3, 6.6, 6.28, 6.75 49,Wis-Stevens Point,_________________ 7 18 2, -1.3, 7.5, 6.24, 6.74 50,Marian,____________________________ 14 10 3, 1.1, 5.1, 6.22, 8.16 51,St Mary's,_________________________ 7 16 1, -0.8, 6.6, 5.81, 5.78 52,Morrisville,_______________________ 4 9 0, -2.2, 7.9, 5.71, 4.72 53,Lake Forest,_______________________ 3 21 3, -2.0, 7.6, 5.63, 6.11 54,Tufts,_____________________________ 6 18 0, -2.0, 7.4, 5.45, 5.33 55,Fitchburg State,___________________ 14 9 3, 0.4, 4.9, 5.29, 4.37 56,Plymouth State,____________________ 11 13 2, -0.5, 5.7, 5.22, 5.76 57,Nichols,___________________________ 13 11 2, 0.1, 5.0, 5.08, 5.31 58,Mass-Boston,_______________________ 5 20 1, -2.5, 7.5, 4.99, 4.55 59,Lawrence,__________________________ 12 13 2, -0.3, 5.2, 4.91, 2.89 60,St Michael's,______________________ 2 17 0, -3.0, 7.9, 4.88, 5.19 61,Lebanon Valley,____________________ 2 22 1, -4.0, 8.7, 4.78, 6.05 62,Johnson and Wales,_________________ 12 11 1, -0.8, 5.5, 4.74, 5.17 63,Stonehill,_________________________ 7 9 0, -0.1, 4.8, 4.65, 4.75 64,Hamline,___________________________ 7 18 0, -2.1, 6.7, 4.64, 3.38 65,So New Hampshire,__________________ 8 8 1, -0.8, 5.1, 4.29, 4.92 66,Suffolk,___________________________ 7 15 2, -0.6, 4.9, 4.27, 4.81 67,Concordia,_________________________ 7 18 0, -1.8, 6.1, 4.22, 5.22 68,Salve Regina,______________________ 10 14 1, -1.0, 5.2, 4.13, 4.59 69,Minn-Crookston,____________________ 5 16 3, -2.2, 5.2, 3.06, 4.86 70,Western NE College,________________ 8 15 0, -1.5, 4.4, 2.95, 2.47 71,Assumption,________________________ 3 13 1, -2.5, 5.4, 2.85, 3.99 72,Worcester State,___________________ 6 16 1, -1.7, 4.5, 2.72, 0.32 73,Framingham State,__________________ 2 20 1, -2.3, 4.9, 2.63, 2.30 74,Becker,____________________________ 1 12 2, -2.1, 4.8, 2.62, 2.53 75,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 3 10 2, -2.3, 4.8, 2.55, -0.07 76,Northland,_________________________ 0 26 1, -4.1, 5.8, 1.66, -0.64 Maximum Goal Differential = 1 (i.e. just considers W, L, T and schedule strength) RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Manhattanville,____________________ 19 1 5, 0.7, 7.3, 8.02, 7.98 2,Neumann,___________________________ 17 4 5, 0.5, 7.5, 7.98, 7.80 3,Oswego,____________________________ 20 3 3, 0.7, 7.3, 7.96, 7.48 4,St Norbert,________________________ 23 3 2, 0.7, 7.2, 7.90, 8.04 5,Wis-Stout,_________________________ 21 5 2, 0.6, 7.2, 7.73, 7.19 6,Wis-River Falls,___________________ 21 5 2, 0.6, 7.1, 7.69, 7.81 7,Wis-Superior,______________________ 20 6 1, 0.5, 7.2, 7.67, 7.98 8,Elmira,____________________________ 13 10 4, 0.1, 7.5, 7.66, 7.87 9,Utica,_____________________________ 13 9 3, 0.2, 7.5, 7.63, 7.49 10,Hobart,____________________________ 13 8 5, 0.2, 7.4, 7.63, 7.45 11,Norwich,___________________________ 20 6 0, 0.5, 7.1, 7.63, 8.17 12,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 14 7 6, 0.3, 7.4, 7.61, 8.14 13,Geneseo,___________________________ 16 10 0, 0.2, 7.4, 7.59, 7.50 14,Fredonia,__________________________ 14 9 4, 0.2, 7.3, 7.53, 7.63 15,Castleton,_________________________ 7 2 1, 0.5, 7.0, 7.50, 7.45 16,Middlebury,________________________ 15 7 3, 0.3, 7.1, 7.43, 7.77 17,Babson,____________________________ 16 9 1, 0.3, 7.1, 7.39, 7.44 18,Castleton State,___________________ 10 3 3, 0.4, 6.9, 7.38, 7.98 19,Bowdoin,___________________________ 15 6 3, 0.4, 7.0, 7.35, 7.59 20,New England College,_______________ 16 9 1, 0.3, 7.1, 7.33, 7.93 21,Mass-Dartmouth,____________________ 23 2 1, 0.8, 6.5, 7.32, 7.06 22,Skidmore,__________________________ 16 8 2, 0.3, 7.0, 7.31, 7.28 23,St Scholastica,____________________ 15 11 2, 0.1, 7.2, 7.30, 7.48 24,St Thomas,_________________________ 15 9 0, 0.3, 7.0, 7.29, 7.53 25,Colby,_____________________________ 14 8 2, 0.3, 7.0, 7.28, 7.61 26,Amherst,___________________________ 14 9 1, 0.2, 7.1, 7.28, 6.97 27,Bethel,____________________________ 15 9 1, 0.2, 7.0, 7.27, 7.33 28,Buffalo State,_____________________ 12 12 2, 0.0, 7.2, 7.25, 7.35 29,Southern Maine,____________________ 15 9 2, 0.2, 7.0, 7.24, 7.06 30,Milw School of Eng,________________ 18 5 2, 0.5, 6.7, 7.20, 7.27 31,Wesleyan,__________________________ 11 8 5, 0.1, 7.1, 7.18, 6.54 32,Augsburg,__________________________ 12 9 4, 0.1, 7.1, 7.18, 7.21 33,Brockport,_________________________ 7 12 7, -0.2, 7.3, 7.12, 6.92 34,Curry,_____________________________ 16 8 2, 0.3, 6.8, 7.10, 7.05 35,Wis-Eau Claire,____________________ 9 14 4, -0.2, 7.3, 7.08, 6.83 36,Finlandia,_________________________ 17 8 0, 0.4, 6.7, 7.06, 7.31 37,Cortland,__________________________ 8 14 3, -0.2, 7.3, 7.04, 7.46 38,Wentworth,_________________________ 14 8 3, 0.2, 6.8, 7.01, 7.11 39,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 11 12 2, -0.0, 7.1, 7.01, 6.67 40,Conn College,______________________ 10 13 2, -0.1, 7.1, 7.00, 7.40 41,Potsdam,___________________________ 5 19 1, -0.6, 7.5, 6.97, 6.67 42,St Anselm,_________________________ 7 10 3, -0.2, 7.1, 6.97, 6.48 43,Williams,__________________________ 8 14 2, -0.3, 7.2, 6.95, 6.86 44,Trinity,___________________________ 8 13 4, -0.2, 7.1, 6.91, 6.36 45,St Olaf,___________________________ 10 13 2, -0.1, 7.0, 6.89, 7.48 46,Morrisville,_______________________ 4 9 0, -0.4, 7.2, 6.86, 6.72 47,St John's,_________________________ 9 14 2, -0.2, 7.1, 6.86, 6.82 48,Marian,____________________________ 14 10 3, 0.1, 6.7, 6.85, 7.19 49,Wis-Stevens Point,_________________ 7 18 2, -0.4, 7.3, 6.84, 6.90 50,Hamilton,__________________________ 7 16 1, -0.4, 7.2, 6.81, 7.00 51,Lawrence,__________________________ 12 13 2, -0.0, 6.7, 6.67, 6.27 52,Salem State,_______________________ 9 17 0, -0.3, 7.0, 6.67, 6.43 53,Johnson and Wales,_________________ 12 11 1, 0.0, 6.6, 6.66, 6.74 54,Fitchburg State,___________________ 14 9 3, 0.2, 6.5, 6.65, 6.44 55,Lake Forest,_______________________ 3 21 3, -0.7, 7.3, 6.65, 6.85 56,St Mary's,_________________________ 7 16 1, -0.4, 7.0, 6.64, 6.12 57,Lebanon Valley,____________________ 2 22 1, -0.8, 7.4, 6.60, 6.91 58,Plymouth State,____________________ 11 13 2, -0.1, 6.7, 6.60, 6.65 59,Hamline,___________________________ 7 18 0, -0.4, 7.0, 6.57, 6.24 60,Nichols,___________________________ 13 11 2, 0.1, 6.5, 6.56, 6.51 61,So New Hampshire,__________________ 8 8 1, 0.0, 6.5, 6.49, 6.64 62,Tufts,_____________________________ 6 18 0, -0.5, 7.0, 6.49, 6.32 63,Concordia,_________________________ 7 18 0, -0.4, 6.9, 6.44, 6.47 64,Mass-Boston,_______________________ 5 20 1, -0.6, 7.0, 6.42, 6.50 65,Salve Regina,______________________ 10 14 1, -0.2, 6.5, 6.37, 6.64 66,Stonehill,_________________________ 7 9 0, -0.1, 6.4, 6.30, 6.70 67,St Michael's,______________________ 2 17 0, -0.8, 7.1, 6.30, 6.28 68,Minn-Crookston,____________________ 5 16 3, -0.5, 6.7, 6.24, 6.43 69,Suffolk,___________________________ 7 15 2, -0.3, 6.5, 6.13, 6.28 70,Western NE College,________________ 8 15 0, -0.3, 6.3, 6.04, 5.67 71,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 3 10 2, -0.5, 6.5, 5.99, 5.61 72,Assumption,________________________ 3 13 1, -0.6, 6.6, 5.98, 6.18 73,Worcester State,___________________ 6 16 1, -0.4, 6.3, 5.91, 5.51 74,Northland,_________________________ 0 26 1, -1.0, 6.8, 5.86, 5.60 75,Becker,____________________________ 1 12 2, -0.7, 6.5, 5.75, 5.67 76,Framingham State,__________________ 2 20 1, -0.8, 6.5, 5.69, 5.52 Link to the 2005-2006 Final D1 Rankings . The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is reached (convergence). One effect often noticed is that a team's rating can change slightly without playing due to previous opponents playing which affects their rating and their opponent's rating, etc. The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a neutral site between those two teams. It should be noted that these rankings are an average performance value for each team for the entire season, all games are equally weighted, so a team's latest game may make up only 1/40th of a teams rating at the end of the season. Games that go to shootouts for decision are considered ties for ratings purposes. Actually, there are two different rankings listed. The first is as described above with the maximum goal differential used per game set at 7. This ordering ends up similar to CCHP, although differences do arise due to CCHP considering home ice advantage and CCHP not using a goal differential limit. The second ranking sets maximum goal differential at 1, thereby just considering whether the game was won, lost, or tied (and strength of opponent). This was done because the NCAA has indicated that it does not want to consider goal differential in the selection process. Note that the Total column in the GD=1 ranking is therefore in win percentage units rather than goal units. A rated .01 ahead of B can be interpreted as saying that if these two teams played exclusively against each other, A's predicted winning percentage is 1 percentage point higher than B's (i.e. A's predicted winning percentage vs. B would be .495, B's against A would be .505). However, since the teams do not play exclusively against the other it is actually a little bit more complex than above as teams can be ranked as high as 1.0 above their average opponent (if they were undefeated and untied) and as low as 1.0 below their average opponent (if they lost all of their games). Not surprisingly, the ordering ends up very similar to KRACH . Links to other ratings: High School Rankings for 25 States High School National Rankings New England Prep Midget Minor AAA Midget Major AAA Men's NCAA D1 USHL NAHL ACHA College Club USHSHO.com High School Ice Hockey Forums
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