Scores (sorted by team) through March 5, 2011 courtesy of USCHO.com . Disclaimer: The D3 rankings are new and it is unclear to me how well connected the East/West schedules are and therefore still unclear how accurate the relative rankings between regions are. Previous Rankings New ratings will be posted each week, time permitting. Maximum Goal Differential = 4 See Rankings Without Considering Goal Differential Below RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Oswego,____________________________ 22 4 0, 1.8, 8.3, 10.11, 8.83 2,Elmira,____________________________ 17 6 4, 1.3, 8.6, 9.91, 10.84 3,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 20 7 1, 1.3, 8.2, 9.50, 10.41 4,Hobart,____________________________ 15 10 2, 0.5, 8.6, 9.14, 8.39 5,Utica,_____________________________ 17 8 1, 0.9, 8.2, 9.07, 7.75 6,Manhattanville,____________________ 15 10 1, 0.7, 8.4, 9.05, 8.11 7,Castleton,_________________________ 22 4 1, 1.9, 7.1, 9.04, 8.75 8,Norwich,___________________________ 20 5 3, 1.6, 7.4, 8.99, 9.00 9,Geneseo,___________________________ 16 8 2, 1.0, 8.0, 8.96, 7.95 10,Neumann,___________________________ 14 8 5, 0.4, 8.5, 8.93, 10.80 11,St Norbert,________________________ 22 4 1, 1.4, 7.4, 8.80, 8.13 12,Buffalo State,_____________________ 12 11 3, 0.4, 8.1, 8.54, 9.22 13,Fredonia,__________________________ 14 13 1, 0.3, 8.2, 8.47, 8.75 14,Adrian,____________________________ 22 3 1, 2.3, 6.0, 8.33, 8.95 15,Hamilton,__________________________ 14 7 4, 0.9, 7.3, 8.19, 7.45 16,Williams,__________________________ 16 7 3, 0.9, 7.3, 8.15, 8.63 17,Wisconsin-Eau Claire,______________ 15 11 1, 0.5, 7.7, 8.14, 8.60 18,Bowdoin,___________________________ 17 7 1, 1.0, 7.1, 8.12, 7.99 19,Morrisville,_______________________ 11 13 1, -0.3, 8.4, 8.10, 9.12 20,Wisconsin-Superior,________________ 16 12 1, 0.6, 7.5, 8.09, 8.21 21,Middlebury,________________________ 11 8 6, 0.6, 7.4, 7.91, 8.05 22,Wisconsin-Stevens Point,___________ 13 14 1, 0.1, 7.8, 7.86, 7.15 23,Wisconsin-Stout,___________________ 16 11 0, 0.4, 7.5, 7.85, 8.46 24,Hamline,___________________________ 16 6 5, 0.8, 7.0, 7.77, 7.98 25,Salem State,_______________________ 18 7 2, 1.4, 6.4, 7.76, 6.79 26,Amherst,___________________________ 12 9 4, 0.5, 7.3, 7.76, 8.04 27,Wisconsin-River Falls,_____________ 12 14 2, 0.1, 7.4, 7.54, 7.44 28,St Thomas,_________________________ 14 10 2, 0.7, 6.9, 7.54, 7.75 29,Curry,_____________________________ 16 8 3, 0.9, 6.7, 7.52, 7.45 30,Milwaukee School of Engineering,___ 21 6 1, 1.6, 6.0, 7.52, 6.64 31,Marian,____________________________ 19 7 0, 1.5, 6.0, 7.47, 8.34 32,Colby,_____________________________ 12 11 2, 0.2, 7.3, 7.47, 7.56 33,Massachusetts-Boston,______________ 15 11 0, 0.7, 6.8, 7.46, 6.97 34,Fitchburg State,___________________ 18 9 1, 1.1, 6.3, 7.40, 7.90 35,Trinity,___________________________ 11 10 4, 0.2, 7.1, 7.27, 7.39 36,St Anselm,_________________________ 13 11 2, 0.5, 6.7, 7.21, 7.00 37,Wesleyan,__________________________ 10 12 3, 0.0, 7.2, 7.20, 7.74 38,Skidmore,__________________________ 9 14 3, -0.5, 7.6, 7.17, 6.49 39,Babson,____________________________ 11 14 3, -0.2, 7.3, 7.10, 8.23 40,Wentworth,_________________________ 14 9 4, 1.0, 6.1, 7.10, 7.42 41,Augsburg,__________________________ 14 9 3, 0.6, 6.5, 7.10, 7.61 42,Potsdam,___________________________ 6 17 1, -1.2, 8.3, 7.06, 6.72 43,Massachusetts-Dartmouth,___________ 18 7 1, 1.0, 6.1, 7.02, 8.41 44,Cortland,__________________________ 6 17 2, -1.6, 8.6, 7.00, 7.13 45,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 15 10 2, 0.4, 6.6, 6.96, 6.31 46,St Olaf,___________________________ 11 10 4, 0.2, 6.7, 6.89, 6.24 47,Southern Maine,____________________ 8 13 5, -0.7, 7.6, 6.84, 8.11 48,Plymouth State,____________________ 15 6 5, 0.8, 6.0, 6.79, 5.01 49,Concordia (Minn),__________________ 12 11 4, -0.1, 6.8, 6.65, 7.16 50,St Scholastica,____________________ 9 17 1, -1.0, 7.6, 6.63, 5.64 51,Brockport,_________________________ 4 18 3, -1.6, 8.2, 6.59, 7.02 52,New England College,_______________ 7 17 2, -1.1, 7.4, 6.29, 5.72 53,St Michael's,______________________ 11 15 1, -0.4, 6.7, 6.28, 5.97 54,St John's,_________________________ 6 17 2, -0.9, 7.1, 6.25, 6.49 55,Connecticut College,_______________ 7 14 3, -1.0, 7.1, 6.18, 5.92 56,Johnson and Wales,_________________ 14 12 1, 0.1, 6.0, 6.13, 6.25 57,St Mary's,_________________________ 6 17 2, -1.1, 7.1, 5.95, 6.10 58,Worcester State,___________________ 11 12 3, -0.2, 6.1, 5.94, 5.83 59,Nichols,___________________________ 12 13 1, 0.0, 5.9, 5.93, 4.36 60,Lawrence,__________________________ 14 13 1, -0.3, 6.2, 5.92, 4.98 61,Bethel,____________________________ 4 17 4, -1.2, 6.9, 5.65, 4.23 62,Tufts,_____________________________ 6 16 1, -1.5, 7.1, 5.62, 5.33 63,Westfield State,___________________ 6 19 2, -1.0, 6.6, 5.55, 5.41 64,Becker,____________________________ 11 13 3, -0.4, 5.8, 5.40, 5.79 65,University of New England,_________ 6 19 0, -1.6, 6.9, 5.28, 6.05 66,Northland,_________________________ 9 16 2, -0.9, 6.0, 5.17, 6.18 67,Lake Forest,_______________________ 5 21 1, -1.5, 6.6, 5.04, 4.47 68,Assumption,________________________ 11 15 1, -0.6, 5.5, 4.93, 5.21 69,Suffolk,___________________________ 8 16 0, -1.0, 5.9, 4.90, 5.36 70,Western New England College,_______ 8 17 1, -1.3, 6.1, 4.86, 4.92 71,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 8 18 0, -1.5, 6.0, 4.53, 5.19 72,Framingham State,__________________ 4 18 1, -1.9, 6.4, 4.52, 5.42 73,Stonehill,_________________________ 5 18 1, -1.2, 5.4, 4.22, 2.91 74,Finlandia,_________________________ 3 21 0, -2.2, 6.3, 4.10, 4.53 75,Concordia (Wis),___________________ 2 22 1, -2.7, 6.6, 3.90, 4.65 76,So New Hampshire,__________________ 6 17 2, -1.8, 5.4, 3.60, 4.09 77,Salve Regina,______________________ 2 21 2, -2.4, 5.9, 3.50, 3.77 Maximum Goal Differential = 1 (i.e. just considers W, L, T and schedule strength) RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Oswego,____________________________ 22 4 0, 0.7, 7.4, 8.11, 7.50 2,Elmira,____________________________ 17 6 4, 0.4, 7.6, 7.98, 8.15 3,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 20 7 1, 0.5, 7.4, 7.85, 8.39 4,St Norbert,________________________ 22 4 1, 0.7, 7.1, 7.80, 7.78 5,Utica,_____________________________ 17 8 1, 0.3, 7.4, 7.76, 7.38 6,Neumann,___________________________ 14 8 5, 0.2, 7.5, 7.74, 8.45 7,Hobart,____________________________ 15 10 2, 0.2, 7.6, 7.74, 7.60 8,Manhattanville,____________________ 15 10 1, 0.2, 7.5, 7.68, 7.15 9,Geneseo,___________________________ 16 8 2, 0.3, 7.4, 7.66, 7.28 10,Castleton,_________________________ 22 4 1, 0.7, 7.0, 7.66, 7.59 11,Norwich,___________________________ 20 5 3, 0.5, 7.1, 7.61, 7.72 12,Adrian,____________________________ 22 3 1, 0.7, 6.8, 7.48, 7.72 13,Fredonia,__________________________ 14 13 1, 0.0, 7.4, 7.44, 7.93 14,Buffalo State,_____________________ 12 11 3, 0.0, 7.4, 7.43, 7.67 15,Wisconsin-Eau Claire,______________ 15 11 1, 0.1, 7.3, 7.40, 7.39 16,Morrisville,_______________________ 11 13 1, -0.1, 7.5, 7.39, 7.39 17,Williams,__________________________ 16 7 3, 0.3, 7.0, 7.37, 7.72 18,Wisconsin-Stout,___________________ 16 11 0, 0.2, 7.2, 7.37, 7.49 19,Bowdoin,___________________________ 17 7 1, 0.4, 7.0, 7.37, 7.56 20,Hamline,___________________________ 16 6 5, 0.4, 7.0, 7.36, 7.59 21,Wisconsin-Superior,________________ 16 12 1, 0.1, 7.2, 7.35, 7.47 22,Hamilton,__________________________ 14 7 4, 0.3, 7.1, 7.35, 7.51 23,Wisconsin-Stevens Point,___________ 13 14 1, -0.0, 7.3, 7.26, 6.93 24,Milwaukee School of Engineering,___ 21 6 1, 0.5, 6.7, 7.25, 6.77 25,Marian,____________________________ 19 7 0, 0.5, 6.8, 7.22, 7.39 26,Curry,_____________________________ 16 8 3, 0.3, 6.9, 7.19, 7.18 27,Middlebury,________________________ 11 8 6, 0.1, 7.1, 7.18, 7.14 28,Amherst,___________________________ 12 9 4, 0.1, 7.0, 7.17, 7.20 29,Salem State,_______________________ 18 7 2, 0.4, 6.7, 7.15, 6.72 30,Wisconsin-River Falls,_____________ 12 14 2, -0.1, 7.2, 7.13, 7.12 31,Cortland,__________________________ 6 17 2, -0.4, 7.6, 7.12, 7.01 32,St Thomas,_________________________ 14 10 2, 0.2, 7.0, 7.11, 7.14 33,Colby,_____________________________ 12 11 2, 0.0, 7.0, 7.08, 7.24 34,Massachusetts-Dartmouth,___________ 18 7 1, 0.4, 6.6, 7.07, 7.38 35,Fitchburg State,___________________ 18 9 1, 0.3, 6.7, 7.06, 7.58 36,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 15 10 2, 0.2, 6.9, 7.05, 6.78 37,Massachusetts-Boston,______________ 15 11 0, 0.2, 6.9, 7.04, 6.60 38,Augsburg,__________________________ 14 9 3, 0.2, 6.8, 7.04, 7.36 39,Trinity,___________________________ 11 10 4, 0.0, 7.0, 7.02, 6.95 40,Potsdam,___________________________ 6 17 1, -0.5, 7.5, 7.00, 6.85 41,Skidmore,__________________________ 9 14 3, -0.2, 7.2, 6.97, 6.77 42,Plymouth State,____________________ 15 6 5, 0.3, 6.6, 6.97, 6.41 43,Concordia (Minn),__________________ 12 11 4, 0.0, 6.9, 6.95, 7.05 44,Babson,____________________________ 11 14 3, -0.1, 7.1, 6.95, 7.15 45,St Scholastica,____________________ 9 17 1, -0.3, 7.2, 6.95, 6.45 46,St Anselm,_________________________ 13 11 2, 0.1, 6.9, 6.94, 6.89 47,Southern Maine,____________________ 8 13 5, -0.2, 7.1, 6.93, 7.43 48,Wesleyan,__________________________ 10 12 3, -0.1, 7.0, 6.93, 6.82 49,St Olaf,___________________________ 11 10 4, 0.0, 6.9, 6.92, 6.68 50,Wentworth,_________________________ 14 9 4, 0.2, 6.7, 6.89, 7.30 51,Brockport,_________________________ 4 18 3, -0.6, 7.4, 6.88, 7.15 52,Lawrence,__________________________ 14 13 1, 0.0, 6.8, 6.86, 6.75 53,Johnson and Wales,_________________ 14 12 1, 0.1, 6.7, 6.73, 6.48 54,St Michael's,______________________ 11 15 1, -0.1, 6.9, 6.73, 6.64 55,Connecticut College,_______________ 7 14 3, -0.3, 7.0, 6.70, 6.33 56,New England College,_______________ 7 17 2, -0.4, 7.1, 6.70, 6.32 57,Worcester State,___________________ 11 12 3, -0.0, 6.7, 6.65, 6.74 58,Nichols,___________________________ 12 13 1, -0.0, 6.6, 6.60, 6.02 59,St John's,_________________________ 6 17 2, -0.4, 7.0, 6.60, 6.47 60,St Mary's,_________________________ 6 17 2, -0.4, 7.0, 6.58, 6.67 61,Tufts,_____________________________ 6 16 1, -0.4, 7.0, 6.57, 6.74 62,Becker,____________________________ 11 13 3, -0.1, 6.6, 6.51, 6.78 63,Northland,_________________________ 9 16 2, -0.3, 6.8, 6.50, 6.65 64,Bethel,____________________________ 4 17 4, -0.5, 7.0, 6.45, 6.04 65,University of New England,_________ 6 19 0, -0.5, 6.9, 6.42, 6.77 66,Westfield State,___________________ 6 19 2, -0.5, 6.9, 6.37, 6.38 67,Western New England College,_______ 8 17 1, -0.3, 6.7, 6.35, 6.65 68,Lake Forest,_______________________ 5 21 1, -0.6, 6.9, 6.34, 6.20 69,Assumption,________________________ 11 15 1, -0.1, 6.5, 6.33, 6.22 70,Suffolk,___________________________ 8 16 0, -0.3, 6.6, 6.32, 6.25 71,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 8 18 0, -0.4, 6.7, 6.30, 6.41 72,Framingham State,__________________ 4 18 1, -0.6, 6.8, 6.16, 6.17 73,Concordia (Wis),___________________ 2 22 1, -0.8, 6.9, 6.13, 6.38 74,Finlandia,_________________________ 3 21 0, -0.8, 6.9, 6.12, 6.19 75,So New Hampshire,__________________ 6 17 2, -0.4, 6.5, 6.03, 6.09 76,Stonehill,_________________________ 5 18 1, -0.5, 6.5, 5.95, 5.87 77,Salve Regina,______________________ 2 21 2, -0.8, 6.6, 5.88, 5.85 Link to the 2005-2006 Final D1 Rankings . The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is reached (convergence). One effect often noticed is that a team's rating can change slightly without playing due to previous opponents playing which affects their rating and their opponent's rating, etc. The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a neutral site between those two teams. It should be noted that these rankings are an average performance value for each team for the entire season, all games are equally weighted, so a team's latest game may make up only 1/40th of a teams rating at the end of the season. Games that go to shootouts for decision are considered ties for ratings purposes. Actually, there are two different rankings listed. The first is as described above with the maximum goal differential used per game set at 7. This ordering ends up similar to CCHP, although differences do arise due to CCHP considering home ice advantage and CCHP not using a goal differential limit. The second ranking sets maximum goal differential at 1, thereby just considering whether the game was won, lost, or tied (and strength of opponent). This was done because the NCAA has indicated that it does not want to consider goal differential in the selection process. Note that the Total column in the GD=1 ranking is therefore in win percentage units rather than goal units. A rated .01 ahead of B can be interpreted as saying that if these two teams played exclusively against each other, A's predicted winning percentage is 1 percentage point higher than B's (i.e. A's predicted winning percentage vs. B would be .495, B's against A would be .505). However, since the teams do not play exclusively against the other it is actually a little bit more complex than above as teams can be ranked as high as 1.0 above their average opponent (if they were undefeated and untied) and as low as 1.0 below their average opponent (if they lost all of their games). Not surprisingly, the ordering ends up very similar to KRACH . Links to other ratings: High School Rankings for 25 States High School National Rankings New England Prep Midget Minor AAA Midget Major AAA Men's NCAA D1 USHL NAHL ACHA College Club USHSHO.com High School Ice Hockey Forums
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