Scores (sorted by team) through February 9, 2014 courtesy of USCHO.com . Disclaimer: The D3 rankings are new and it is unclear to me how well connected the East/West schedules are and therefore still unclear how accurate the relative rankings between regions are. Previous Rankings New ratings will be posted each week, time permitting. Maximum Goal Differential = 4 2013 National Champions: Wisconsin-Eau Claire See Rankings Without Considering Goal Differential Below RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,St Norbert,________________________ 19 3 1, 1.9, 8.4, 10.36, 10.30 2,Wisconsin-Stevens Point,___________ 16 3 2, 2.3, 8.1, 10.34, 9.23 3,Wisconsin-Eau Claire,______________ 16 4 1, 2.0, 8.1, 10.06, 10.21 4,Adrian,____________________________ 18 1 4, 2.1, 7.7, 9.80, 8.81 5,St Thomas,_________________________ 16 3 2, 1.5, 8.0, 9.55, 9.70 6,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 13 4 4, 1.0, 8.1, 9.08, 10.17 7,Wisconsin-River Falls,_____________ 12 6 3, 0.6, 8.4, 8.99, 8.53 8,St Scholastica,____________________ 12 7 4, 0.9, 8.0, 8.94, 8.43 9,Norwich,___________________________ 15 5 3, 1.8, 7.0, 8.78, 7.72 10,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 18 3 2, 1.7, 7.0, 8.61, 7.99 11,Marian,____________________________ 10 11 2, 0.5, 8.1, 8.60, 9.95 12,Concordia (Minn),__________________ 11 7 5, 0.7, 7.9, 8.55, 8.25 13,Oswego,____________________________ 15 4 2, 1.8, 6.7, 8.46, 7.57 14,St John's,_________________________ 13 8 0, 0.3, 8.1, 8.40, 7.48 15,St Olaf,___________________________ 10 9 4, 0.1, 8.3, 8.39, 9.65 16,Lake Forest,_______________________ 14 8 1, 0.5, 7.9, 8.39, 9.41 17,Massachusetts-Boston,______________ 16 4 3, 1.6, 6.6, 8.19, 7.81 18,Trinity,___________________________ 16 4 0, 1.6, 6.5, 8.16, 8.83 19,Utica,_____________________________ 13 5 4, 1.1, 7.0, 8.14, 7.88 20,Concordia (Wis),___________________ 9 10 4, 0.0, 8.1, 8.12, 6.34 21,Hobart,____________________________ 11 6 4, 1.0, 7.1, 8.10, 8.34 22,Babson,____________________________ 19 3 1, 1.3, 6.7, 8.08, 8.23 23,Williams,__________________________ 13 5 2, 1.0, 7.1, 8.08, 7.06 24,Augsburg,__________________________ 10 8 3, 0.0, 8.0, 8.06, 7.34 25,Amherst,___________________________ 13 6 1, 0.8, 7.2, 8.03, 9.18 26,Geneseo,___________________________ 16 5 0, 1.1, 6.8, 7.92, 6.82 27,Elmira,____________________________ 13 8 0, 0.7, 7.1, 7.81, 9.37 28,Wisconsin-Stout,___________________ 7 14 0, -1.0, 8.7, 7.80, 8.04 29,Wisconsin-Superior,________________ 7 13 3, -0.7, 8.4, 7.73, 7.49 30,New England College,_______________ 14 7 1, 0.6, 7.0, 7.59, 7.45 31,Bowdoin,___________________________ 12 6 2, 0.9, 6.7, 7.56, 7.57 32,Middlebury,________________________ 8 10 2, 0.1, 7.2, 7.32, 7.09 33,Buffalo State,_____________________ 9 9 4, 0.2, 7.1, 7.31, 7.71 34,Manhattanville,____________________ 11 9 1, 0.4, 6.8, 7.23, 6.07 35,Bethel,____________________________ 3 16 2, -1.2, 8.3, 7.09, 7.64 36,St Anselm,_________________________ 9 9 4, 0.4, 6.7, 7.09, 8.33 37,Wesleyan,__________________________ 10 8 2, 0.3, 6.7, 7.04, 7.38 38,Milwaukee School of Engineering,___ 6 16 1, -1.2, 8.3, 7.03, 7.99 39,St Mary's,_________________________ 7 13 1, -1.3, 8.3, 7.03, 5.80 40,Lawrence,__________________________ 5 16 2, -1.7, 8.7, 6.97, 7.86 41,Castleton,_________________________ 11 10 3, 0.0, 6.9, 6.95, 7.73 42,Skidmore,__________________________ 7 10 7, 0.0, 6.9, 6.88, 6.63 43,Johnson and Wales,_________________ 15 5 1, 1.2, 5.6, 6.79, 5.56 44,Neumann,___________________________ 7 10 4, -0.3, 7.1, 6.74, 5.63 45,Colby,_____________________________ 10 7 3, -0.1, 6.8, 6.73, 5.98 46,Nazareth,__________________________ 7 14 1, -0.9, 7.6, 6.71, 7.91 47,Finlandia,_________________________ 2 19 1, -2.1, 8.5, 6.39, 5.41 48,Brockport,_________________________ 6 12 3, -0.7, 7.0, 6.37, 6.13 49,Nichols,___________________________ 14 5 2, 1.0, 5.3, 6.33, 6.72 50,Hamilton,__________________________ 4 12 3, -1.0, 7.3, 6.32, 6.33 51,Fredonia,__________________________ 7 10 5, -0.5, 6.8, 6.29, 6.59 52,Hamline,___________________________ 2 18 1, -2.2, 8.4, 6.20, 6.89 53,Plymouth State,____________________ 9 10 2, 0.4, 5.8, 6.19, 6.39 54,Connecticut College,_______________ 7 12 1, -0.8, 7.0, 6.16, 7.64 55,Southern Maine,____________________ 5 13 5, -1.0, 7.1, 6.10, 6.52 56,Potsdam,___________________________ 7 12 2, -0.9, 6.9, 6.04, 6.90 57,University of New England,_________ 8 14 1, -1.0, 7.0, 6.02, 5.74 58,Stonehill,_________________________ 14 9 0, 0.7, 5.4, 6.01, 6.64 59,Cortland,__________________________ 4 13 3, -1.1, 7.1, 5.95, 5.37 60,Salem State,_______________________ 11 8 2, 0.2, 5.7, 5.91, 5.87 61,So New Hampshire,__________________ 13 8 1, 0.4, 5.4, 5.83, 5.61 62,Northland,_________________________ 4 19 0, -2.3, 8.1, 5.73, 6.14 63,Wentworth,_________________________ 9 10 2, -0.2, 5.9, 5.67, 6.98 64,Fitchburg State,___________________ 9 10 1, 0.1, 5.4, 5.58, 6.77 65,St Michael's,______________________ 6 16 1, -1.3, 6.8, 5.54, 6.30 66,Curry,_____________________________ 8 11 2, -0.4, 5.9, 5.49, 6.09 67,Tufts,_____________________________ 3 17 0, -1.4, 6.8, 5.38, 4.38 68,Salve Regina,______________________ 8 13 0, -0.9, 6.2, 5.34, 4.39 69,Morrisville,_______________________ 5 15 2, -1.6, 6.8, 5.16, 5.57 70,Westfield State,___________________ 8 12 1, -0.0, 5.2, 5.13, 3.82 71,Western New England,_______________ 9 11 0, -0.6, 5.7, 5.10, 2.65 72,Framingham State,__________________ 8 8 4, -0.3, 5.3, 4.99, 4.10 73,Suffolk,___________________________ 6 13 1, -0.9, 5.6, 4.67, 4.92 74,Massachusetts-Dartmouth,___________ 5 14 2, -1.2, 5.8, 4.64, 4.61 75,Worcester State,___________________ 8 9 1, -0.9, 5.3, 4.37, 4.37 76,Canton,____________________________ 5 14 2, -1.4, 5.7, 4.31, 4.68 77,Becker,____________________________ 2 14 3, -1.5, 5.5, 4.00, 5.66 78,Assumption,________________________ 3 17 2, -1.5, 5.4, 3.98, 2.19 79,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 4 15 2, -1.6, 5.6, 3.96, 4.51 Maximum Goal Differential = 1 (i.e. just considers W, L, T and schedule strength) RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,St Norbert,________________________ 19 3 1, 0.7, 7.5, 8.23, 8.29 2,Wisconsin-Stevens Point,___________ 16 3 2, 0.6, 7.4, 8.06, 7.63 3,St Thomas,_________________________ 16 3 2, 0.6, 7.4, 8.05, 8.18 4,Wisconsin-Eau Claire,______________ 16 4 1, 0.6, 7.5, 8.04, 8.01 5,Adrian,____________________________ 18 1 4, 0.7, 7.3, 8.03, 7.91 6,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 13 4 4, 0.4, 7.5, 7.94, 8.37 7,Wisconsin-River Falls,_____________ 12 6 3, 0.3, 7.5, 7.83, 7.71 8,St John's,_________________________ 13 8 0, 0.2, 7.5, 7.72, 7.58 9,St Scholastica,____________________ 12 7 4, 0.2, 7.5, 7.67, 7.23 10,Lake Forest,_______________________ 14 8 1, 0.3, 7.4, 7.65, 8.15 11,Concordia (Minn),__________________ 11 7 5, 0.2, 7.4, 7.62, 7.50 12,St Olaf,___________________________ 10 9 4, 0.0, 7.6, 7.60, 8.15 13,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 18 3 2, 0.7, 6.9, 7.59, 7.53 14,Augsburg,__________________________ 10 8 3, 0.1, 7.5, 7.58, 7.26 15,Babson,____________________________ 19 3 1, 0.7, 6.9, 7.56, 7.69 16,Geneseo,___________________________ 16 5 0, 0.5, 6.9, 7.43, 7.10 17,Marian,____________________________ 10 11 2, -0.0, 7.5, 7.42, 8.03 18,Concordia (Wis),___________________ 9 10 4, -0.0, 7.5, 7.41, 6.75 19,Oswego,____________________________ 15 4 2, 0.5, 6.9, 7.39, 7.24 20,Williams,__________________________ 13 5 2, 0.4, 7.0, 7.39, 7.06 21,Norwich,___________________________ 15 5 3, 0.4, 6.9, 7.38, 6.91 22,Trinity,___________________________ 16 4 0, 0.6, 6.8, 7.37, 7.50 23,Amherst,___________________________ 13 6 1, 0.3, 7.0, 7.37, 7.83 24,Massachusetts-Boston,______________ 16 4 3, 0.5, 6.8, 7.36, 7.33 25,Wisconsin-Stout,___________________ 7 14 0, -0.3, 7.7, 7.33, 7.39 26,Utica,_____________________________ 13 5 4, 0.4, 6.9, 7.30, 7.35 27,St Mary's,_________________________ 7 13 1, -0.3, 7.6, 7.29, 7.06 28,Wisconsin-Superior,________________ 7 13 3, -0.3, 7.5, 7.27, 7.36 29,New England College,_______________ 14 7 1, 0.3, 6.9, 7.24, 7.09 30,Hobart,____________________________ 11 6 4, 0.2, 7.0, 7.24, 7.15 31,Elmira,____________________________ 13 8 0, 0.2, 7.0, 7.21, 7.70 32,Lawrence,__________________________ 5 16 2, -0.5, 7.6, 7.15, 7.40 33,Bowdoin,___________________________ 12 6 2, 0.3, 6.8, 7.14, 7.19 34,Milwaukee School of Engineering,___ 6 16 1, -0.4, 7.5, 7.05, 7.21 35,Colby,_____________________________ 10 7 3, 0.1, 6.9, 7.04, 6.94 36,Buffalo State,_____________________ 9 9 4, 0.0, 7.0, 7.03, 6.94 37,Castleton,_________________________ 11 10 3, 0.0, 6.9, 6.96, 7.32 38,Manhattanville,____________________ 11 9 1, 0.1, 6.9, 6.96, 6.58 39,Johnson and Wales,_________________ 15 5 1, 0.5, 6.5, 6.96, 6.29 40,Bethel,____________________________ 3 16 2, -0.6, 7.6, 6.94, 6.87 41,Wesleyan,__________________________ 10 8 2, 0.1, 6.8, 6.94, 7.00 42,Middlebury,________________________ 8 10 2, -0.1, 7.0, 6.90, 6.64 43,St Anselm,_________________________ 9 9 4, 0.0, 6.9, 6.88, 7.47 44,Hamline,___________________________ 2 18 1, -0.8, 7.6, 6.85, 6.74 45,Nichols,___________________________ 14 5 2, 0.4, 6.4, 6.83, 6.88 46,Neumann,___________________________ 7 10 4, -0.1, 7.0, 6.83, 6.40 47,Skidmore,__________________________ 7 10 7, -0.1, 6.9, 6.81, 6.80 48,Nazareth,__________________________ 7 14 1, -0.3, 7.1, 6.81, 7.37 49,Fredonia,__________________________ 7 10 5, -0.1, 6.9, 6.79, 6.94 50,Finlandia,_________________________ 2 19 1, -0.8, 7.5, 6.78, 6.39 51,Northland,_________________________ 4 19 0, -0.7, 7.4, 6.78, 6.91 52,Brockport,_________________________ 6 12 3, -0.3, 7.0, 6.71, 6.51 53,Potsdam,___________________________ 7 12 2, -0.2, 6.9, 6.70, 6.91 54,University of New England,_________ 8 14 1, -0.3, 7.0, 6.69, 6.48 55,Connecticut College,_______________ 7 12 1, -0.3, 6.9, 6.68, 7.31 56,Hamilton,__________________________ 4 12 3, -0.4, 7.1, 6.67, 6.56 57,Salem State,_______________________ 11 8 2, 0.1, 6.5, 6.65, 6.44 58,Southern Maine,____________________ 5 13 5, -0.3, 7.0, 6.64, 6.63 59,So New Hampshire,__________________ 13 8 1, 0.2, 6.4, 6.64, 6.18 60,Stonehill,_________________________ 14 9 0, 0.2, 6.4, 6.62, 7.27 61,Wentworth,_________________________ 9 10 2, -0.0, 6.6, 6.55, 7.37 62,Cortland,__________________________ 4 13 3, -0.5, 7.0, 6.53, 6.25 63,Plymouth State,____________________ 9 10 2, -0.0, 6.5, 6.50, 6.56 64,Curry,_____________________________ 8 11 2, -0.1, 6.6, 6.49, 6.55 65,Salve Regina,______________________ 8 13 0, -0.2, 6.7, 6.45, 6.40 66,St Michael's,______________________ 6 16 1, -0.4, 6.9, 6.44, 6.97 67,Western New England,_______________ 9 11 0, -0.1, 6.5, 6.43, 5.53 68,Morrisville,_______________________ 5 15 2, -0.5, 6.9, 6.43, 6.41 69,Framingham State,__________________ 8 8 4, 0.0, 6.4, 6.36, 6.03 70,Fitchburg State,___________________ 9 10 1, -0.1, 6.4, 6.36, 6.77 71,Worcester State,___________________ 8 9 1, -0.1, 6.3, 6.28, 6.17 72,Tufts,_____________________________ 3 17 0, -0.7, 6.9, 6.17, 6.00 73,Massachusetts-Dartmouth,___________ 5 14 2, -0.4, 6.6, 6.16, 6.16 74,Westfield State,___________________ 8 12 1, -0.2, 6.4, 6.16, 5.99 75,Suffolk,___________________________ 6 13 1, -0.3, 6.5, 6.16, 6.06 76,Canton,____________________________ 5 14 2, -0.4, 6.5, 6.10, 6.30 77,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 4 15 2, -0.5, 6.5, 5.95, 5.97 78,Becker,____________________________ 2 14 3, -0.6, 6.5, 5.85, 6.29 79,Assumption,________________________ 3 17 2, -0.6, 6.5, 5.81, 5.25 The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is reached (convergence). One effect often noticed is that a team's rating can change slightly without playing due to previous opponents playing which affects their rating and their opponent's rating, etc. The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a neutral site between those two teams. It should be noted that these rankings are an average performance value for each team for the entire season, all games are equally weighted, so a team's latest game may make up only 1/40th of a teams rating at the end of the season. Games that go to shootouts for decision are considered ties for ratings purposes. Actually, there are two different rankings listed. The first is as described above with the maximum goal differential used per game set at 7. This ordering ends up similar to CCHP, although differences do arise due to CCHP considering home ice advantage and CCHP not using a goal differential limit. The second ranking sets maximum goal differential at 1, thereby just considering whether the game was won, lost, or tied (and strength of opponent). This was done because the NCAA has indicated that it does not want to consider goal differential in the selection process. Note that the Total column in the GD=1 ranking is therefore in win percentage units rather than goal units. A rated .01 ahead of B can be interpreted as saying that if these two teams played exclusively against each other, A's predicted winning percentage is 1 percentage point higher than B's (i.e. A's predicted winning percentage vs. B would be .495, B's against A would be .505). However, since the teams do not play exclusively against the other it is actually a little bit more complex than above as teams can be ranked as high as 1.0 above their average opponent (if they were undefeated and untied) and as low as 1.0 below their average opponent (if they lost all of their games). Not surprisingly, the ordering ends up very similar to KRACH . Links to other ratings: High School Rankings for 25 States High School National Rankings New England Prep Midget Minor AAA Midget Major AAA Men's NCAA D1 USHL NAHL ACHA College Club USHSHO.com High School Ice Hockey Forums
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