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I'll double check that, but krach doesn't count games against non mn mshsl teams, so that may be part of the issue.bstarr15 wrote:I might have to agree and Rochester Lourdes is 11-4 not 9-2.
Checked this and it is the non-mshsl games being tossed out (by design) for KRACH record and ranking:ghshockeyfan wrote:I'll double check that, but krach doesn't count games against non mn mshsl teams, so that may be part of the issue.bstarr15 wrote:I might have to agree and Rochester Lourdes is 11-4 not 9-2.
It will be interesting to see how this evening's results impact the latest KRACH (Overall) rankings. Both #1 STA and #3 Wayzata lost, to #2 Hill-Murray and to #7 Minnetonka respectively.ghshockeyfan wrote:Updated 01/24 AM
Most Recent Ranking Links:
==========================================
OVERALL:
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA.htm
KRACH thought STA was a 2050/1390-to-1 (1.5-to-1) favorite over HM entering the games last night. Similarly Wayzata was a 1066/351-to-1 (3-to-1) favorite over Minnetonka.MNHockeyFan wrote:It will be interesting to see how this evening's results impact the latest KRACH (Overall) rankings. Both #1 STA and #3 Wayzata lost, to #2 Hill-Murray and to #7 Minnetonka respectively.ghshockeyfan wrote:Updated 01/24 AM
Most Recent Ranking Links:
==========================================
OVERALL:
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA.htm
Going into these games #1 STA had a 2050 to 1390 advantage (+660 points) over #2 HM, and #3 Wayzata a 1066-351 margin (+715 points) over #7 Minnetonka.
As expected Hill-Murray takes over the No. 1 position, albeit just barely, over STA. Minnetonka did not climb as much as I thought, as I guess a couple of their earlier results are preventing them from climbing towards the top (KRACH treats them all equal no matter when the games were played).ghshockeyfan wrote:KRACH thought STA was a 2050/1390-to-1 (1.5-to-1) favorite over HM entering the games last night. Similarly Wayzata was a 1066/351-to-1 (3-to-1) favorite over Minnetonka.
It will be very interesting to see how this AM ranking plays out...
I guess this is yet another excellent example of why we play the games on the ice and not on paper, through rankings, etc.
What a great game!
Is that how the KRACH ratings are supposed to be used?ghshockeyfan wrote: KRACH thought STA was a 2050/1390-to-1 (1.5-to-1) favorite over HM entering the games last night. Similarly Wayzata was a 1066/351-to-1 (3-to-1) favorite over Minnetonka.
It will be very interesting to see how this AM ranking plays out...
I guess this is yet another excellent example of why we play the games on the ice and not on paper, through rankings, etc.
What a great game!
You are correct in that there is no weighting of most recent games. Other rankings may do this though.MNHockeyFan wrote:As expected Hill-Murray takes over the No. 1 position, albeit just barely, over STA. Minnetonka did not climb as much as I thought, as I guess a couple of their earlier results are preventing them from climbing towards the top (KRACH treats them all equal no matter when the games were played).ghshockeyfan wrote:KRACH thought STA was a 2050/1390-to-1 (1.5-to-1) favorite over HM entering the games last night. Similarly Wayzata was a 1066/351-to-1 (3-to-1) favorite over Minnetonka.
It will be very interesting to see how this AM ranking plays out...
I guess this is yet another excellent example of why we play the games on the ice and not on paper, through rankings, etc.
What a great game!
I've had more than one Vegas entity that wanted to work with me on this! I never responded though.almostashappy wrote:Is that how the KRACH ratings are supposed to be used?ghshockeyfan wrote: KRACH thought STA was a 2050/1390-to-1 (1.5-to-1) favorite over HM entering the games last night. Similarly Wayzata was a 1066/351-to-1 (3-to-1) favorite over Minnetonka.
It will be very interesting to see how this AM ranking plays out...
I guess this is yet another excellent example of why we play the games on the ice and not on paper, through rankings, etc.
What a great game!
With latest update, you theoretically would get the following odds if these teams played the Pioneers Saturday night...
2-1 over Wayzata
nearly 3-1 over Edina
nearly 4-1 over Tonka
more than 4-1 over BSM
7-1 over Eagan.
Somebody find me a bookie that's willing to work with these numbers, quick!
Then again, the real H-M opponent Sat night is Tartan... a 15-2 underdog. I'd probably take the home team and give some Tartan fan those odds.
PS - as a Tartan alum, my guess is that Tartan will give it all they have but HM is a heck of a team! ...We'll just have to wait and see what happens I guess...ghshockeyfan wrote:From a related thread:
http://www.ushsho.com/forums/viewtopic. ... ht=#605192
ghshockeyfan wrote:I'll be curious to see how KRACH computer ranking compares against some of the others mentioned here (Minnhock's PS2, USHSHO, MyHockeyRankings). KRACH is probably as "pure" as any algorithm in that it doesn't even care about score differential. That's why I prefer it. No additional human intervention.
Interestingly, it is supposed to give you odds on a game taking place. A team with a "10" rating value is considered the average team in the state regardless of Class designation. A team with, for example, a "100" rating is a 10:1 favorite over the average team. Similarly, you can compare any two teams based on their ratings.
SOS is just an average of opponents rankings played as of now.
Any computer ranking is worthless right now as many have said too limited data at this point.
http://www.ushsho.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=29709
Here's the real details about KRACH:Most Recent Ranking Links:
==========================================
OVERALL:
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA.htm
CLASS AA:
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA.htm
CLASS A:
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A.htm
SECTION:
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC.htm
SOS (Strength-Of-Schedule) is at:
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS.htm
==========================================
Added info. is at:
http://www.bgoski.com
And more info. on the girls forum at:
http://www.ushsho.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=29597
http://www.ushsho.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=27320
http://www.mscs.dal.ca/~butler/krachexp.htm
And, our friends at USCHO speak to KRACH vs other options (yep, 7+ years ago):
http://www.uscho.com/2005/03/17/lets-get-kraching/
In addition to their ongoing rankings for both genders at both levels:
http://www.uscho.com/rankings/
http://www.uscho.com/rankings/krach/d-i-men/
http://www.uscho.com/rankings/krach/d-i-women/
http://www.uscho.com/rankings/krach/d-iii-men/
http://www.uscho.com/rankings/krach/d-ii-iii-men/
http://www.uscho.com/rankings/krach/d-iii-women/
From the Hub:Basic Explanation
KRACH — or “Ken’s Ratings for American College Hockey” — is the implementation for college hockey of a sophisticated mathematical model known as the Bradley-Terry rating system, first applied to college hockey by a statistician named Ken Butler.
This method is based on a statistical technique called logistic regression, in essence meaning that teams’ ratings are determined directly from their won-loss records against one another. A key feature of KRACH is that strength of schedule is calculated directly from the ratings themselves, meaning that KRACH, unlike many ratings (including RPI) cannot easily be distorted by teams with strong records against weak opposition.
The ratings are on an odds scale, so if Team A’s KRACH rating is three times as large as Team B’s, Team A would be expected to amass a winning percentage of .750 and Team B a winning percentage of .250 if it played each other enough times. The correct ratings are defined such that the "expected" winning percentage for a team in the games it’s already played is equal to its "actual" winning percentage.
An alternative definition of a team’s KRACH rating is as the product of its Winning Ratio (winning percentage divided by one minus winning percentage) with the weighted average of its opponents’ KRACH ratings. (The definition of the weighting factor makes this equivalent to the first definition of the KRACH ratings.) In addition to KRACH and RRWP, the table above lists each team’s Winning Percentage, Winning Ratio and Strength of Schedule (the aforementioned weighted average of their opponents’ KRACH ratings).
KRACH is provided for entertainment purposes only and is not used in any official way, nor is it endorsed by USCHO.com.
http://www.mngirlshockeyhub.com/page/sh ... h-rankings
http://www.bgoski.com
About KRACH:
=================
KRACH is short for “Ken's Rating for American College Hockey.” Ken is Ken Butler, a statistician, and the mathematical model he used is known as the Bradley-Terry Rating System. The system and its details are well documented in great mathematical detail online (see KRACH explanation at Ken Butler's homepage).
..
The KRACH rating system is an attempt to combine the performance of each team with the strength of the opposition against which that performance was achieved, and to summarize the result as one number, a "rating", for each team. The higher the rating, the better the team.
This system accounts for strength-of-schedule (SOS) as it ranks the teams.
Teams with equal records and differing SOS can quickly be ranked as a result (i.e. team with stronger SOS is ranked higher than other teams with same record and weaker SOS).
The ratings are calculated purely from the game results (win, loss or tie), and do not use the goals scored at all. Overtime wins count as wins. Ties, for KRACH's purposes, count as half a win and half a loss.
KRACH only counts games against Minnesota State High School League opponents.
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So last night, Eagan beats Burnsville 7-3 and Tartan beat Single A Lourdes 4-2. But that Tartan win was enough to bump them ahead of the Wildcats in your latest combined rankings?ghshockeyfan wrote:Updated 01/30 AM
Most Recent Ranking Links:
==========================================
OVERALL:
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA.htm
CLASS AA:
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA.htm
Some coaches look at the various computer rankings but I'm guessing that the head-to-head will override all else for seeding unless a team is extremely inconsistent. I'd have to look at the rest of the Wdby results - but my guess is they beat some teams a little stronger than those mentioned along the way and maybe dropped the other games you mentioned?joehockey wrote:So looking at Section 3AA what effect does KRACH have in Section Seeding?
Current 3AA shows CG 9, Apple Valley 8 and Woodbury 7. Woodbury lost to Apple Valley and twice to CG?