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slyer wrote:has cec played anyone rated?

Rated or ranked? I was informed by HSWatchingSomething that there is a BIG difference.

Please clarify.

They play Herm. tonight..

EREmpireStrikesBack wrote:It'll be fun come section time as always.

ER/East final.

Elk River, if they beat Forest Lake in the quarterfinals, will play Duluth East in the semi's. There is no way there is any chance East and Elk River can play in the final given the results so far.

rapidsrapids wrote:

EREmpireStrikesBack wrote:It'll be fun come section time as always.

ER/East final.

Elk River, if they beat Forest Lake in the quarterfinals, will play Duluth East in the semi's. There is no way there is any chance East and Elk River can play in the final given the results so far.

I didn't realize the teams have been seeded.

CB00 wrote:

rapidsrapids wrote:

EREmpireStrikesBack wrote:It'll be fun come section time as always.

ER/East final.

Elk River, if they beat Forest Lake in the quarterfinals, will play Duluth East in the semi's. There is no way there is any chance East and Elk River can play in the final given the results so far.

I didn't realize the teams have been seeded.

Well, we thought we could save the coaches some trouble this season.

But seriously, I don't necessarily buy into the idea of 3. Cloquet 4. Elk River.

Lee

According to these two computer generated rankings Elk River would be seeded 3 and Cloquet 4. Still aways to go, but it has not been decided yet as Rapidsrapids seems to think.

Page Stat Rankings
21 HERMANTOWN 5A 17 1 1 102 37 19.42
22 STILLWATER 4AA 11 4 2 53 39 19.16
23 ELK RIVER 7AA 8 11 0 69 56 19.14
24 BLOOM JEFFERSON 2AA 10 6 2 76 63 19.10
25 ROSEVILLE 4AA 9 5 5 53 40 19.00
26 CLOQUET 7AA 13 6 0 91 49 18.98

MN Ranking site
27,Elk River,MN,_______________________ 8 11 0, 1 -0.2, 13.1, 12.88, 11.88 ,AA,7
28,Totino-Grace,MN,____________________ 14 3 0, 3 1.4, 11.4, 12.87, 12.29 , A,4
29,Cloquet,MN,_________________________ 13 6 0, 1 1.1, 11.7, 12.85, 12.60 ,AA,7

Cloquet is 13-6, Elk River 8-11. They both have about the same difficulty of schedule. If there is a chance for ER to be #3 I'm all for it, I just don't see any way to argue it based on results so far. Elk River getting swept by Armstrong is too ugly IMO to get the #3 seed.

It's not over . If FL wins out... IF.. They could have a chance for that #4 seed.

rapidsrapids wrote:Cloquet is 13-6, Elk River 8-11. They both have about the same difficulty of schedule. If there is a chance for ER to be #3 I'm all for it, I just don't see any way to argue it based on results so far. Elk River getting swept by Armstrong is too ugly IMO to get the #3 seed.

I think the difficulty of schedule could be argued.
(Page Stat rankings) It don't think it matters all too much what ranking system, you will get results about the same.

ER games Top 25 (11 games top 25, 4 top 10)
Eden Prairie #1
Edina #7
Grand Rapids #13
Centennial twice #22 one win
Blaine twice #16
Maple Grove #7
Holy Angels #21 win
Bloomington Jefferson #20 win
Benilde SM #4

Cloquet games so far (5 games top 25, 1 top 10)
Bemidji #15
Grand Rapids twice #13
Duluth East #3
Hermantown #18 win

I think if I was a coach arguing my case, I would have something to stand on.

Common opponent:
ER 1 GR 3
CEC 1 GR 4
CEC 3 GR 4
ER 8 Andover 0
CEC 3 Andover 1

I think the games against DE is going to decide this, who plays the Hounds the best. Remember, when the coaches vote, sometimes
they will vote to set themselves up for a better seeding. Who does East not want to play, Randolph's vote for the #3 will be telling...

How is Elk River's fan base feeling about their team? Is there much excitement in the area? If they make the semi-finals, I hope they bring a lot of fans. The place will be crazy as it is, but if East is playing Cloquet in the 1st game than I fully expect standing room only for the first game. Being that its at the Amsoil Arena should make it an even more of a draw for fans that have to drive a long ways.

rapidsrapids wrote:Cloquet is 13-6, Elk River 8-11. They both have about the same difficulty of schedule. If there is a chance for ER to be #3 I'm all for it, I just don't see any way to argue it based on results so far. Elk River getting swept by Armstrong is too ugly IMO to get the #3 seed.

Gotta remember who will be at the restaurant lobbying for ER...

At this time Elk River deserves the number 3 seed. Cloquet's soft schedule does not provide a good argument to be seeded above Elk River. Elk River has better wins than Cloquet. If you would swap schedules my guess would be that Cloquet's record would be much worse than Elk River's. If Cloquet can defeat White Beal Lake and Forest Lake they would then deserve the higher seed.

greenway1969 wrote:At this time Elk River deserves the number 3 seed. Cloquet's soft schedule does not provide a good argument to be seeded above Elk River. Elk River has better wins than Cloquet. If you would swap schedules my guess would be that Cloquet's record would be much worse than Elk River's. If Cloquet can defeat White Beal Lake and Forest Lake they would then deserve the higher seed.

Elk River has two wins against teams with winning records.

The most telling for section seeding are head-to-head, section opponents, and common opponents.
Looking at all those things it is a toss-up between 3 & 4 seed.

My guess is East (duh?), Grand Rapids, Cloquet, Elk River, Forest Lake, does not matter after that.

Cloquet/Elk River - Common opponents in Andover and Grand Rapids - not a great deal of difference there.
Elk River has played some top teams and played them well, but they LOST. Arguing that you are good because you lost is not a good argument.

I agree, you look at wins more than losses. Elk River does have better wins than Cloquet. To me, wins against AHA, Centennial, and Jefferson are more impressive than wins over Bemidji and Forest Lake.

greenway1969 wrote:I agree, you look at wins more than losses. Elk River does have better wins than Cloquet. To me, wins against AHA, Centennial, and Jefferson are more impressive than wins over Bemidji and Forest Lake.

I'd add Hermantown to the list of good wins for Cloquet. And though ER beat Centennial, that was the December meeting; Centennial won their rematch last week.

We can also add losses to non-top teams to the conversation.
ER: lost to Armstrong twice, and Osseo.
Cloquet: losses to So. St. Paul, Virginia, and Duluth Marshall.

I don't think we can make a call at this point. Each team's performance against East next week will be big. It will likely go down to the wire; every game matters.

I would not discount Elk River's win over Centennial just because it was in December. Their loss to Centennial was at Centennial. That I think is just as big a factor as when you play. With that logic, if Forest Lake defeats Cloquet they should be seated ahead of Cloquet because their win is more recent. Should we only count what happens after Christmas?I am not denying that these two teams appear equal, but the wins and losses slightly favor Elk River at this time. However, I would rather play Elk River than Cloquet come Section time.

greenway1969 wrote:I would not discount Elk River's win over Centennial just because it was in December. Their loss to Centennial was at Centennial. That I think is just as big a factor as when you play. With that logic, if Forest Lake defeats Cloquet they should be seated ahead of Cloquet because their win is more recent. Should we only count what happens after Christmas?I am not denying that these two teams appear equal, but the wins and losses slightly favor Elk River at this time. However, I would rather play Elk River than Cloquet come Section time.

I wouldn't discount the first meeting, but I do think the second one should carry a little more weight. (Same with Flake-Cloquet, though I think Cloquet has had a strong enough regular season relative to Flake that they'd be safe from dropping to #5.) Several times in the past East and Cloquet have split their regular season games, and the winner of the second game usually ends up with the higher seed.

Cloquet's track record suggests they're the more dangerous team to play in the playoffs (just ask ER about that quarterfinal last year). This year I think both are upset threats, though for very different reasons; Cloquet has an explosive top line, while ER has the goalie and team defense to get it done. Very curious to see how both do against East next week.

karl(east) wrote:

greenway1969 wrote:I would not discount Elk River's win over Centennial just because it was in December. Their loss to Centennial was at Centennial. That I think is just as big a factor as when you play. With that logic, if Forest Lake defeats Cloquet they should be seated ahead of Cloquet because their win is more recent. Should we only count what happens after Christmas?I am not denying that these two teams appear equal, but the wins and losses slightly favor Elk River at this time. However, I would rather play Elk River than Cloquet come Section time.

I wouldn't discount the first meeting, but I do think the second one should carry a little more weight. (Same with Flake-Cloquet, though I think Cloquet has had a strong enough regular season relative to Flake that they'd be safe from dropping to #5.) Several times in the past East and Cloquet have split their regular season games, and the winner of the second game usually ends up with the higher seed.

Cloquet's track record suggests they're the more dangerous team to play in the playoffs (just ask ER about that quarterfinal last year). This year I think both are upset threats, though for very different reasons; Cloquet has an explosive top line, while ER has the goalie and team defense to get it done. Very curious to see how both do against East next week.

I don't understand this logic. ER has beaten CEC the last 2 years in sections. Yes, last years game went into OT, but ER won. Where's the track record. O, maybe your thinking about when CEC beat East a few years back. Can't get it out of you mind.

That's funny stuff right there, I don't care who you are.

ER hasn't seemed that dangerous in the playoffs, or maybe its just Championship Games...

CB00 wrote:I don't understand this logic. ER has beaten CEC the last 2 years in sections. Yes, last years game went into OT, but ER won. Where's the track record. O, maybe your thinking about when CEC beat East a few years back. Can't get it out of you mind.

That's funny stuff right there, I don't care who you are.

The track record:
2010: a 9-win Cloquet team takes #1 seed ER to 2 OT. Yes, ER won, but considering #1-seeds usually win first round games by 6-10 goals, that's not much to brag about.
2009: 6-seed, 5-win Cloquet upsets #3 Grand Rapids in the quarters.
2008: 4-seed Cloquet upsets #1 Duluth East in the semis and #2 Anoka, both top-15 teams, to reach the state tourney.
2006: 4-seed Cloquet upsets #1 Duluth East

You can dig around, but good luck finding another team in the state that gets more upsets in sections. (That's what I meant by "dangerous.")

We can argue wins all day long. Who will be arguing those wins has to matter. Right now, I'd say ER gets the #3 seed. Still some games left to play though.

karl(east) wrote:

greenway1969 wrote:I agree, you look at wins more than losses. Elk River does have better wins than Cloquet. To me, wins against AHA, Centennial, and Jefferson are more impressive than wins over Bemidji and Forest Lake.

I'd add Hermantown to the list of good wins for Cloquet. And though ER beat Centennial, that was the December meeting; Centennial won their rematch last week.

We can also add losses to non-top teams to the conversation.
ER: lost to Armstrong twice, and Osseo.
Cloquet: losses to So. St. Paul, Virginia, and Duluth Marshall.

I don't think we can make a call at this point. Each team's performance against East next week will be big. It will likely go down to the wire; every game matters.

Ill give you the two losses to Armstrong those are a big ouch on there schedule but osseo is having a pretty good season . Cloquet on the other hand has those two losses against class A teams and and another to a St Paul team that right there is enough to put Elk River ahead of Cloquet

East goes to state.

Sorry, Empire. ER will play close down the road, but they just can't cut it this year...

CEC deserves the 3 seed at this point after the Hermantown win. Personaly, I would rather see them get the 4 because that could result in a CEC-East semi-final match up. I would not count Flake out though. No matter if it is CEC or ER at the 4, I could see Flake advancing to the Semi's. With all that said, the way I see it playing out is ER somehow gets the 3 seed, CEC gets the 4 and Flake is the 5. I think CEC will get past Flake in the quarters by a goal or two. Then Rapids will get past ER with relative ease. This is where it becomes interesting. I believe the CEC-East game will be one of the best play-off games all year with the Jacks pulling one out in a multi-o.t. game. The finals then would be another classic with the Thuderhawks taking the title and heading back to St. Paul. Either way this will be a great section tournament.

curtiscurve wrote:CEC deserves the 3 seed at this point after the Hermantown win. Personaly, I would rather see them get the 4 because that could result in a CEC-East semi-final match up. I would not count Flake out though. No matter if it is CEC or ER at the 4, I could see Flake advancing to the Semi's. With all that said, the way I see it playing out is ER somehow gets the 3 seed, CEC gets the 4 and Flake is the 5. I think CEC will get past Flake in the quarters by a goal or two. Then Rapids will get past ER with relative ease. This is where it becomes interesting. I believe the CEC-East game will be one of the best play-off games all year with the Jacks pulling one out in a multi-o.t. game. The finals then would be another classic with the Thuderhawks taking the title and heading back to St. Paul. Either way this will be a great section tournament.

Bold call. I can't deny that it wont happen though. It will be interesting to these two teams meet on the 8th for the second time this season; this will either sort out or mix up the section seeding discussions. Should be good.