HighSchoolHockeyForums.com

From what my source tells me:
D: Hermantown lost 1 D that was 4th or 5th. Replaced with a solid Jr / very talanted sophmore. Everybody else is back and a year older. Herm should be stronger at D this year than last. 2 Sr a Jr D that are at/near the top in the state and a sophmore making his mark this year already. Right now I was told 2 of the D are out. Not sure why and for how long.

Lost Skrb #1 Points and 2 other 3rd line F. 2-7 top points players are back and a year older.

1st line: Skrbich replaced with a senior, otherwise same.

2nd line: Same as last year. Talented sophmores last year that have played together since squirts are now Juniors. They can really move the puck. This line is 2nd power play.

3rd line: 3 big seniors that played last year on V & JV. Big, strong and they like to hit.

4th line: 2 juniors and a sophmore. They can also play.

This is a talented Junior/Senior group that has played together for the most part every other year from mites on up. Thats why they did so well last year in what was a rebuilding year. They are strong on paper and also be should strong on the ice but anything can happen.

Havent seen Breck or Hermantown play, but I saw ST Thomas dismantle Lourdes tonight. Not that Lourdes is Top 5, but I do think they are 6 or 7 form what was posted.

St Thomas is skilled, play smart, and dont appear to have any weaknesses. They have beaten 2 top 15 teams in A and lost to a top 10 AA team...

Breck has beaten Delano, St Cloud Cathedral (bad) , Duluth Marshall and Mahtomedi but SPA? Hermantown has beaten Grace but Sauk Rapids?

I would give STA-1 Breck-2 Hermantown-3 at this point...

HShockeywatcher wrote:Only Class A loss for Hermantown last year was St Thomas...both Breck and Hermantown lost to St Thomas 4-5, the Hawks in OT.
On paper Hermantown is by far the best compared to last year, followed by Breck. But that implies two things; 1. The players improved that much more than what St Thomas replaced theirs with and 2. that games are played on paper...

Another interesting point (at least to me) is what position players are at. I haven't taken the time (yet) to digest all three rosters, but I know St Thomas has top D and starting G returning, while Hermantown lost their G. Not sure about Breck. Anyone have a breakdown off hand of what was lost on all three in each position?

If only games were played on paper...

I would kindly point out that rankings are the "paper", which is what we're doing here... Anyway, here ya go...

Hermantown lost:
Offense:
Skrbich (F) -37G, 24A - Leading Scorer
Dyson (F) - 7G, 4A
Grillo (F - moved to Proctor) - 3G, 5A
Hicks (F) - G, 4A
Elmgren(F) - 2G, 3A
Neubarth (F) - No points, limited playing time

Defense:
Lucas (G) - Starting Goaltender
Illikainen (G) - Played in 3 games as a backup
Knowles (D) - 2G, 2A

Returns:
4 of their top 5 defensemen
8 of their top 9 scorers
goalie who did play in a few games last year.

Summary:
They lost basically lost 2 major players in Skrbich and Lucas. Given the fact that all their other guns are coming back, the offense shouldn't miss a beat. Defensively, all that was unproven coming in was their goaltender, everyone else has experience on the blue line. That said, Mensinger has started the season 3-0 with a GAA of 1.67 and saves% of 91.1 with a shutout, so it doesn't look like that is going to be an issue. Its very hard to look at this and say they are not the #1 team in class A.

Breck lost:
Offense:
Oppenheimer (F) - 8G, 14A
Zosel (F) - 8G, 18A

Defense:
McCormick (G) - Played 12 games
Stainbrook (G) - Played in 5 games
Ciernia (D) - 3G, 9A

Returns:
Top 6 scorers, including three 20 goal scorers
4 of their top 5 defensemen
goalie who played in 10 games last year.

Summary:
Lost a pair of above average forwards and a good defenseman, but still have the bulk of their offense back. Kenney played in ten games last year, and played fairly well, so they should be fine in goal. Very similar to Hermantown in what they lost, but Hermantown had a slightly better squad to start with. I'd rank them a very close 2nd.

St. Thomas Academy lost:
Offense:
Ferriera (F) - 6G, 6A
Schroeder (F) - 23G, 29A - Top Scorer
Kroska (F) - 23G, 20A - #3 Scorer
Reid (F) - 19G, 29A - #2 Scorer
Peterson (F) - 4G, 5A
Eichstadt (F) - 6G, 4A
Ward (F) - No Points, limited playing time

Defense:
Raiola (D) - 1G, 8A
Gerhan (D) - 2G
Fleming (D) - 6G, 26A - #4 Scorer

Returns:
2 experienced goalies
Only 2 players back that had double digit goal totals
2 of their top 5 defensemen.

Summary:
Both goaltenders coming back are solid, but the loss of their top 4 scorers and two other contributing forwards might drop the offensive output significantly. Loss of half of their defensive corp will also have to be dealt with. By far they have the most to replace - as in 200+ points and 8 or 9 spots that will need be filled. Its hard to say those 8 or 9 players will be better than the players on the other two teams that have already proven where they belong. To me, its a no-brainer they were #3 coming in, unless their JV was as good as (or better than) their varsity last year.

First off, thank you PuckRanger for this analysis. Very in depth information along with your opinion of each team.

I took a few minutes to get stats from what was lost and we can compare.

PuckRanger wrote:I would kindly point out that rankings are the "paper", which is what we're doing here... Anyway, here ya go...

You are right. As are the game results; which is what I look at.

PuckRanger wrote:Hermantown :
Its very hard to look at this and say they are not the #1 team in class A.

So, is your gripe with me being consistent and using the same rankings publishing to start my rankings that I have every year I've done the rankings or is your gripe with LPH for not ranking Hermantown where you think they should be ranked?

In all my asking, I have yet to get a straight answer on this.

PuckRanger wrote:Breck :

Very similar to Hermantown in what they lost, but Hermantown had a slightly better squad to start with.

I'd call losing your #1 scorer who accounted for a lot of your goals much different than returning your top 6 scorers.

PuckRanger wrote: Returns:
Top 6 scorers, including three 20 goal scorers

Team only had 2 players that scored 20+ goals.

PuckRanger wrote:St. Thomas Academy:

Both goaltenders coming back are solid, but the loss of their top 4 scorers and two other contributing forwards might drop the offensive output significantly. Loss of half of their defensive corp will also have to be dealt with. By far they have the most to replace - as in 200+ points and 8 or 9 spots that will need be filled. Its hard to say those 8 or 9 players will be better than the players on the other two teams that have already proven where they belong. To me, its a no-brainer they were #3 coming in, unless their JV was as good as (or better than) their varsity last year.

With the exception of the obvious bias this statement is written, I cannot disagree with anything in the first three sentences. They do in fact have the most to replace.


From the Faster, Smarter Cadet by Aaron Paitich and the Hub's front page:

"Cadets coach Greg Vannelli said: "He improved significantly. Normally between junior and senior year, a lot of guys stay the same, but he continued to accelerate. He's faster. He's smarter." "

Just one man's opinion, but the assumption that is being made for underclassmen here is that they will all greatly improve the next year. This is not true for everyone.

Another assumption being made is that "worse" players (based on points) would not be able to fill (or come close to) the point totals of the "better" player were the better player not there. In many cases this is true but in many it is not.

Anyway, I have never said any team is better than another team nor that things won't change as the season goes. In fact, going into this past Fri-Sat I thought I was going to have to change up the top 3 this past week. All I have done is been consistent in how I start and had no reason to change that.

Analysis of the 3 to follow shortly.
As always; enjoy the respectful discussion.

With all the discussion of the top 3, I thought I'd look a little closer at what each team lost from last year to get a real representation of what the numbers say.

I will preface this with two things:
1. This is by scoring numbers only. So what line a player was on, how good they are defensively, and other such characteristics that play a huge role in the game are not being measured at all.
2. Leadership and development (among other things) play a huge role in what happens year to year.

Teams In alphabetical order:
Breck
17 players recorded points last season
4 seniors recorded points last season (23% of players)
Team - 430p, 166g, 264a; 1.59a/g
Seniors - 81p, 28g, 53a; 0.12a/g
% - 18%p, 17%g, 20%a

In net (# games; reg sea, sections, st):
Senior 1 - 5, 0, 2
Senior 2 - 12, 0, 0
Junior - 10, 3, 1

#6, #7, #8 forwards, #4 defense man lost.

Returning five 40+ point scorers, two 20+ point scorers, 9 forwards and 4 defensemen who scored points.

Hermantown
21 players recorded points last season
5 seniors record points last season (24% of players)
Team - 305p, 128g, 177a; 1.38a/g
Seniors - 86p, 49g, 37a; 0.28a/g
% - 28%p, 38%g, 21%a

In net:
Senior - 21, 3, 3
Junior - 3, 0, 1
Soph - 2, 0, 0

#1, #6, #13, #14 (x2) forwards, # 5 defense lost.

Return one 50+ and two 20+ point scorer, 9 forwards and 7 defense men who scored points.

St Thomas
20 players recorded points last season
9 players recorded points last season (45% of players)
Team - 352p, 135g, 217a; 1.61a/g
Seniors - 217p, 90g, 127a; 0.94a/g
% - 61%p, 67%g, 59%a

In net:
Soph - 19, 3, 3
Junior - 9, 0, 1

#1, #2, #3 #7, #8 forwards and #1, #4, #5, #8 defense men lost.

Returning four 20+ point scorers, 7 forwards and 4 defense men who scored points.


My analysis, in no particular order:
Offense:
-St Thomas relied on seniors for both about double % of their team, double Hermantown's dependence on scoring and triple Breck's.
-Breck's top line is unchanged. St Thomas' top line was completely lost.
-While Hermantown "only" lost one of their top 5 in scoring, that one player accounted for 29% of the team's goals scored.

Goalies:
-Hermantown's returning goalies played in a combined 5 regular season games and 5 minutes at state.
-Breck's goalie situation is quite odd. While their junior returning goalie played in 10 regular season games, all 3 section games and quarterfinal state game, he allowed 4 GAA in his 4 post season games, including 7 goals against TRF and was replaced for the two consolation games.

Overall:
On paper, Breck is by far the best returning offensively, mainly looking at their lack of dependence on their seniors last year. Hermantown was very dependent on one person last year to score but still return about as much of their scoring as St Thomas lost.

The goalie situation is reversed of offense.
Hermantown doesn't appear to return much at all; their starter didn't get much play last year and their back up wasn't on the team last year. Their back up was in net against Hopkins which helps understanding allowing more goals than Hopkins has scored against 3 of their 4 other opponents.
Breck returns someone with 14 games experience but who doesn't seem to be that great of a goalie based on last year's stats. This year he has allowed 12 goals against SCC, DM, Maht and Delano.
St Thomas returns both of their goalies; the starter is a junior. He has played well thus far, playing to great games against two good teams. Their back up was in net allowing 1 GA against Lourdes. It's a great sign they have two good goalies and the better is younger.

The only team of the three I have seen play is St Thomas. They dominated the play against HM but came up a little short. What Breck returns was statistically way better than either Hermantown or St Thomas, but Hermantown is showing us they can score as is st Thomas. The "X-factor" for all these three teams is goalie/defense. How much will that come into play? I can't say for sure. St Thomas showed us they can score as well amassing 8 goals against Lourdes. Hermantown didn't impress me against Superior, who has allowed 4+ GA to 4 of their 5 WI opponents and the Hawks only scored 3. Breck has been scoring a lot, and they will continue to do so, especially considering their conference. With 36 goals through 5 games, they could get 200 team goals if they want this season (projected at 180 now).

Lots of information. Whatever the reason, both Hermantown and Breck are allowing more goals to certain teams than I would expect a top team to allow while their firepower is keeping them in games. It'll be interesting to see how they each do against much tougher competition.
St Thomas controlled the play against a good HM team but wasn't able to score against a hot goalie. They showed us they can score so we'll see how they carries over to better competition right after Christmas.

In short, I'm confident in how I have them ranked considering where they started.
Nothing has happened during the season thus far to convince me any of these three is leaps and bounds better than others and should be changed from the initial starting position anyone had them in. I wouldn't be surprised to see the top 3 seeds at state be in any order nor would it surprise me for any of these 3 to win the state title.

Lots of numbers; feel free to comment/ask questions.

BigTen wrote:Hermantown 2

Rogers 1

Final

Shots on Goal
Team 1 2 3 Total
Herm 4 11 26 41
Rogers 4 9 3 16

Rogers only goal came in the last .10 second of the 2 period in a 5-3 pp.
Herm seemed like they kind of played with their food until the 3rd period when they stepped on gas. Rogers goalie also made many great saves. Rogers was up for this game and seems like Herm did not take it too seriously till the 3rd.