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20 years ago... 4 current 1AA teams in the top 14.

goldy313 wrote:20 years ago... 4 current 1AA teams in the top 14.

Those Rochester schools used to put out a good product, didn't they?

Lee

That was the end of a real good 20-25 year run. People forget that Burnsville and Apple Valley came out of section 1 for many years.
The end coincided with Lourdes rise and Century opening, though I honestly think it would have only taken one of those two to end the run as there were never enough kids to support 3 strong teams, let alone 4.

goldy313 wrote:That was the end of a real good 20-25 year run. People forget that Burnsville and Apple Valley came out of section 1 for many years.
The end coincided with Lourdes rise and Century opening, though I honestly think it would have only taken one of those two to end the run as there were never enough kids to support 3 strong teams, let alone 4.

Remarkable how far Hastings has fallen, too. On the flip side, imagine how good some of those Lakeville teams could have been if it were still one school.

The 10 years ago list, on the other hand, has an awful lot of the same teams that are on the list now. Interesting flashback to my senior year there.

karl(east) wrote:

goldy313 wrote:That was the end of a real good 20-25 year run. People forget that Burnsville and Apple Valley came out of section 1 for many years.
The end coincided with Lourdes rise and Century opening, though I honestly think it would have only taken one of those two to end the run as there were never enough kids to support 3 strong teams, let alone 4.

Remarkable how far Hastings has fallen, too. On the flip side, imagine how good some of those Lakeville teams could have been if it were still one school.

The 10 years ago list, on the other hand, has an awful lot of the same teams that are on the list now. Interesting flashback to my senior year there.

Won't be long and you will be half my age.

karl(east) wrote:

goldy313 wrote:That was the end of a real good 20-25 year run. People forget that Burnsville and Apple Valley came out of section 1 for many years.
The end coincided with Lourdes rise and Century opening, though I honestly think it would have only taken one of those two to end the run as there were never enough kids to support 3 strong teams, let alone 4.

Remarkable how far Hastings has fallen, too. On the flip side, imagine how good some of those Lakeville teams could have been if it were still one school.

The 10 years ago list, on the other hand, has an awful lot of the same teams that are on the list now. Interesting flashback to my senior year there.

How many kids in each Lakeville school? Is Lakeville the city the size of Duluth the city. ?Why did they split into 2 schools?

kniven wrote:

karl(east) wrote:

goldy313 wrote:That was the end of a real good 20-25 year run. People forget that Burnsville and Apple Valley came out of section 1 for many years.
The end coincided with Lourdes rise and Century opening, though I honestly think it would have only taken one of those two to end the run as there were never enough kids to support 3 strong teams, let alone 4.

Remarkable how far Hastings has fallen, too. On the flip side, imagine how good some of those Lakeville teams could have been if it were still one school.

The 10 years ago list, on the other hand, has an awful lot of the same teams that are on the list now. Interesting flashback to my senior year there.

How many kids in each Lakeville school? Is Lakeville the city the size of Duluth the city. ?Why did they split into 2 schools?

The city of Lakeville population wise is about 25,000 less people than the city of Duluth. Lakeville North has a 9-12 enrollment of 1717 per MSHSL, and South has a 9-12 enrollment of 1721 per MSHSL.

Here’s a random PageStat year that I found interesting: 1999-2000 Rankings

Four of the top seven teams are from 4AA: Elk River and eventual state champ Blaine, along with Park Center and Osseo (who now co-op, though PC sends very few players). Future NHLer Tim Jackman played on that PC team.

7AA also had four of the top fourteen teams: East, Cloquet, and then two teams that would soon drop back down to 7A in Greenway and Hibbing.

Stang5280 wrote:Here’s a random PageStat year that I found interesting: 1999-2000 Rankings

For sure. Very interesting observations. Also, Hastings was 15th. Now they are pretty far down.

Usthockey13 wrote:

HockeyonFire wrote:No section should use QRF to seed...it is a joke.

Couldn’t agree more. So glad section 7AA decided to use it..NOT! No computer can see how the games are played.

7AA Is using this??? cmon

Starting today, PageStat now includes a link to the ratings sorted by sections, which creates an easy way to see how PageStat would seed each section.

Lee

The look back at how PageStat saw things 10 and 20 years ago this week is now on the main page. At some point I will be setting up links to every weekly ratings run over the past 20 seasons.

The latest ratings (as of games played through Jan. 13) are now posted.

http://minnhock.com/minnhock.htm

Lee

Lee , as always makes intuitive sense within reason all the way thru top 20

One ?: Why Brainerd so high, with 4 losses and 14th SOS?

WestMetro wrote:Lee , as always makes intuitive sense within reason all the way thru top 20

One ?: Why Brainerd so high, with 4 losses and 14th SOS?

The short answer lies in a basic formula--they are +24 goal differential in their 14 games, an average of +1.71. Add this to their SOS of 19.133 and the result is 20.843. This is what their "rough" rating comes out to. The momentum factor I have built into PageStat adjust that slightly upwards.

Simply stated, PageStat is about margins of win or loss. I would answer the same question posed to Moorhead's six losses (who is only one place behind Brainerd) the same way.

There is one other factor built in which hasn't affected Brainerd in any of their games--a game between two teams which are separated by more than the "cap" in PageStat points is ignored. This is done to prevent a team's rating from suffering by playing a much lower opponent. But it has resulted in 77 game results (out of 1,142 games played so far) being ignored. Again, this didn't affect any of Brainerd's games.

Hope this makes sense.

Lee

Thanks

Brainerd could conceivably go 10-1 from here on out, but SOS will deteriorate.

Will be interesting to see how they fare in your future reruns

New PageStat ratings posted.

It was an interesting start to the week. East dropped from #4 to #6 after "only" beating Rapids by two goals. Then last night's Hastings win over Hill-Murray affected White Bear Lake's SOS. Despite East and White Bear not playing last night, East eased back into #5 by a fraction of a hundredths of a point over the Bears.

Meanwhile, SCC took over #3 from Greenway.

With over half the regular season gone, things have settled in so that one good or bad outing for a given team won't drastically change their ranking.

Lee

So I tried a computerized model on Section 8AA.
Several variations.

It always came out about the same.
Brainerd Moorhead flipped a bit.

then StMA
then St Cloud

Roseau and on their heels Bemidji

way back as expected Buffalo
and almost non-existent Rogers.

If you look at section records you can get the same thing.

Writing and entering data is for the birds.

But thankful for the crazies that do it.

PageStat is up +3 on the seedings so far.

http://minnhock.com/boys2018.htm

Tomorrow's PageStat upset picks:

(5) Lourdes over (4) Mankato West in 1A
(5) Farmington over (4) Owatonna in 1AA
(5) Northfield over (4) St Paul Johnson in 4A

So far, won Lourdes, lost Farmington. Northfield up 2-0 on Johnson, so hopefully PageStat will be +4 at the end of the night.

Lee

It is a pretty much a given Page2stat beats the coaches......and congratulations for that! FWIW i think it is a better system than coaches voting and has far less bias than Karl.

Now the question is does Page2stat beat QRF?

QRF has pretty much replaced coaches voting and the AP coaches poll in football and my opinion is that has been a step in the right direction. The next step in hockey would to be move in that direction, but to my eye Page2stat (Hal) is superior.

goldy313 wrote:It is a pretty much a given Page2stat beats the coaches......and congratulations for that! FWIW i think it is a better system than coaches voting and has far less bias than Karl.

Now the question is does Page2stat beat QRF?

QRF has pretty much replaced coaches voting and the AP coaches poll in football and my opinion is that has been a step in the right direction. The next step in hockey would to be move in that direction, but to my eye Page2stat (Hal) is superior.

Haven't done any comparison against QRF. Lost interest in that system once I learned that they penalize a team for playing Class A competition. So, you get penalized for playing Hermantown but not Cambridge?

I think QRF could be good and am intrigued by the idea that it goes to a tie-breaker system if the rating difference between two teams is within a certain threshold. Not sure of a system, tho, which uses a coin flip if the other tie-breakers don't work! Doing something like that with PageStat could be an interesting study for me to undertake, but I think I would stop after head to head. If head to head doesn't break the tie, then revert back to PageStat.

I have a problem with any computerized system, but this may just be the result of my in-bred bias--it doesn't weigh section games heavier than non-section games. I tried to play around with adding a "weight" factor to section games, and the results got really wonky, so I stopped.

PageStat is +4, but at least four disagreements remain, and I don't feel good about who PageStat has picked in any of them. It's picking South over Century, Blaine over Maple Grove, Wayzata over CDH and Brainerd over STMA. But again, maybe PageStat is smarter than my powers of observations. After all, it's been smarter than the coaches (and other computer systems) which seed them.

Oh, before I forget to bring this up--had QRF ignored the tie-breaker, it would have picked Marshall to beat Cloquet. So there is that.

bardown27 wrote:

kniven wrote:

karl(east) wrote: Remarkable how far Hastings has fallen, too. On the flip side, imagine how good some of those Lakeville teams could have been if it were still one school.

The 10 years ago list, on the other hand, has an awful lot of the same teams that are on the list now. Interesting flashback to my senior year there.

How many kids in each Lakeville school? Is Lakeville the city the size of Duluth the city. ?Why did they split into 2 schools?

The city of Lakeville population wise is about 25,000 less people than the city of Duluth. Lakeville North has a 9-12 enrollment of 1717 per MSHSL, and South has a 9-12 enrollment of 1721 per MSHSL.

Lakeville's geographic foot print is enormous with still a lot of undeveloped land. They are planning for the future.

goldy313 wrote:It is a pretty much a given Page2stat beats the coaches......and congratulations for that! FWIW i think it is a better system than coaches voting and has far less bias than Karl.

Now the question is does Page2stat beat QRF?

QRF has pretty much replaced coaches voting and the AP coaches poll in football and my opinion is that has been a step in the right direction. The next step in hockey would to be move in that direction, but to my eye Page2stat (Hal) is superior.

I agree that PageStat is an excellent rating system and consistently predicts section results well, and would not be opposed to incorporating more analytical data into to the seeding process. That said, can we really fault coaches all that much for missing on 4 vs. 5 and 8 vs. 9 matchups, which is where PS typically “wins” over the actual seeds? Most of those teams are steamrolled in the next round by the one seed anyway, so the value of picking the early upset is marginal. It is pretty rare to see a major disagreement between PS and the seed lines, and where a major upset occurs, both the human and computer projections miss it.

I have always liked PageStat because of fewer extreme outliers than QRF. That lends credibility.

Of course coaches could never use PageStat unless a certain creator sold the formula and data to MSHSL ( for a large sum of course)

I will give QRF some credit , though, for pushing Eastview higher all season long. Although I disagreed at the time, I see LPH followed this week by having them at 11th or so.
(now just wait, Rosemount will upset them tomorrow!)

The best preseason pundit prediction was Doug Hagen at FTP, who had Cretin in the middle/lower top 10, no one else even close at the time on that one I think.
Matt Gleason one of the most underreported kids in the state.

In response to West Metro ( the real West Metro) , Youth Hockey Hub just published a fantastic honor and story about Matt Gleason!

WM <> YHH? Or YHH <> WM ? Or ?