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Best of luck to Rochester Century. Be nice to see a Rochester club back in the tournament once again.

blueblood wrote: ↑Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:24 am My comments on elite League Rosters in reference to karl(east) who is quoted below from the original posting on this topic:

"...and there was also some justified angst over seeming competitive imbalance when the Team Southwest roster was revealed. What good does it do anyone to load up a Metro Elite League team like that?"

In reviewing rosters, we have the following situation for Team North:
1) Duluth East - all East players are on Team North, which there are 10 or 11 East players
2) Hermantown - all Hermantown players on Team North

The only northern players not on Team North are the Greenway kids who have to play for GP, because Coach Clafton is HC of Team North. Player for player, Team North is as good as any metro based team, with the Hounds, Hawks, Jacks; etc. representing the #218.

Now, a few examples of teams from the SW metro that compete in Section 2AA:
1) Chaska players on 3 different teams: SW, SE, & CCM
2) Minnetonka players on 4 different teams: SW, SE, GP and CCM
3) EP players on team SE due to Team SW coaching situation
4) HF players are on several different teams (SW, CCM and maybe one other?

The facts are: there are more teams, and therefore, more players in the SW versus Northern MN. I guarantee, if those SW area based players were on Team North, the #218ers would go ballistic.

-bb

The roster shifts have somewhat blunted the decisive edge SW seemed to have when this was first written when the rosters first came out. That said, my point had nothing to do with how many players from a particular program were in the Elite League or on a given team, but the collective talent of the roster as a whole. I just think that, when possible, the people building the teams should aim to balance the rosters. If that means redistributing some deserving SW Metro area kids on to other teams, yes! Do it--just don't put only the best SW Metro players on Team SW, and instead find ways to spread the love. North is constrained by geography, and I've been saying for a long time that the relative lack of teams up this way is the reason why East and others have so many kids every single year. But while they're usually one of the better teams, they're rarely if ever head and shoulders above the rest. If it ever got to the point where North were steamrolling the competition year after year, I'd argue they should be broken up, since that's no good for anyone. And on the flip side, if North can't compete from the current area it draws from, they should definitely expand the boundaries. My point was about competitive balance during the EL season, and nothing more.

northwoods oldtimer wrote: ↑Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:59 am Best of luck to Rochester Century. Be nice to see a Rochester club back in the tournament once again.

My prejudice is always going towards John Marshall but reality puts them in the category of team like Columbia Heights or Johnson....that said I do believe in a "state tournament" and will always cheer for any outstate 1 AA team. Owatonna or Austin going 0-2 helps hockey more than Eagan or Lakeville South going 0-2. Hopefully Rochester Century breaks through and reinvigorates Rochester hockey.

goldy313 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:57 pm

northwoods oldtimer wrote: ↑Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:59 am Best of luck to Rochester Century. Be nice to see a Rochester club back in the tournament once again.

My prejudice is always going towards John Marshall but reality puts them in the category of team like Columbia Heights or Johnson....that said I do believe in a "state tournament" and will always cheer for any outstate 1 AA team. Owatonna or Austin going 0-2 helps hockey more than Eagan or Lakeville South going 0-2. Hopefully Rochester Century breaks through and reinvigorates Rochester hockey.

I would imagine Rochester hockey will eventually become competitive. With all the money that is going to be put into the Mayo Clinic and Rochester with their 20 year plan it would seem that they will eventually be good at hockey again. From what I have read they are hoping to double their population by like 2040 while like 6 billion dollars is going into improving the city and Mayo Clinic.

If I had to guess 70% of the jobs will be in the service industry.....kids in those families do not play hockey in large numbers. Many of the rest will be advanced degrees in science......again not many hockey players coming from that group. More kids played bantam hockey in Rochester in 1983 with a population of 65,0000 than play now with a population of 110,000. It is more than 50% less players now, and I don’t see anything reversing that trend; sport specialization, cost, fear of concussions, etc. all are increasing.

A good run would help promote hockey. A 1977 championship and 1979 runner up at John Marshall helped a 1989 runner up team, that helped a 2007 3rd place Century team. We are at the end of that 10 year cycle. Rochester didn’t even field a bantam AA team last year.

The free and reduced lunch rate is growing pretty steadily....John Marshall is nearing 40%. A growing service industry won’t stem that growth.

I find it very hard to imagine Rochester being relevant in the AA hockey world again after the next couple of years (if they are in those years).

goldy313 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:33 am If I had to guess 70% of the jobs will be in the service industry.....kids in those families do not play hockey in large numbers. Many of the rest will be advanced degrees in science......again not many hockey players coming from that group. More kids played bantam hockey in Rochester in 1983 with a population of 65,0000 than play now with a population of 110,000. It is more than 50% less players now, and I don’t see anything reversing that trend; sport specialization, cost, fear of concussions, etc. all are increasing.

A good run would help promote hockey. A 1977 championship and 1979 runner up at John Marshall helped a 1989 runner up team, that helped a 2007 3rd place Century team. We are at the end of that 10 year cycle. Rochester didn’t even field a bantam AA team last year.

The free and reduced lunch rate is growing pretty steadily....John Marshall is nearing 40%. A growing service industry won’t stem that growth.

I find it very hard to imagine Rochester being relevant in the AA hockey world again after the next couple of years (if they are in those years).

Maybe you are right, perhaps Rochester will never be relevant again in hockey, but I think if you add that many people and you attract wealthy people, like the Mayo Clinic probably does, then I think there is certainly a shot. From what I have seen the city of Rochester is hoping to add 25,000 to 45,000 jobs, even if 70% is service jobs (which seems like a high estimation to me) you are still adding 8000 to 14,000 new positions.
It should be interesting to see how Rochester changes in the next few decades, and hopefully they become relevant in hockey again.

goldy313 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:33 am If I had to guess 70% of the jobs will be in the service industry.....kids in those families do not play hockey in large numbers. Many of the rest will be advanced degrees in science......again not many hockey players coming from that group. More kids played bantam hockey in Rochester in 1983 with a population of 65,0000 than play now with a population of 110,000. It is more than 50% less players now, and I don’t see anything reversing that trend; sport specialization, cost, fear of concussions, etc. all are increasing.

A good run would help promote hockey. A 1977 championship and 1979 runner up at John Marshall helped a 1989 runner up team, that helped a 2007 3rd place Century team. We are at the end of that 10 year cycle. Rochester didn’t even field a bantam AA team last year.

The free and reduced lunch rate is growing pretty steadily....John Marshall is nearing 40%. A growing service industry won’t stem that growth.

I find it very hard to imagine Rochester being relevant in the AA hockey world again after the next couple of years (if they are in those years).

Unbelievable Goldy!

green4 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:14 am

goldy313 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:33 am If I had to guess 70% of the jobs will be in the service industry.....kids in those families do not play hockey in large numbers. Many of the rest will be advanced degrees in science......again not many hockey players coming from that group. More kids played bantam hockey in Rochester in 1983 with a population of 65,0000 than play now with a population of 110,000. It is more than 50% less players now, and I don’t see anything reversing that trend; sport specialization, cost, fear of concussions, etc. all are increasing.

A good run would help promote hockey. A 1977 championship and 1979 runner up at John Marshall helped a 1989 runner up team, that helped a 2007 3rd place Century team. We are at the end of that 10 year cycle. Rochester didn’t even field a bantam AA team last year.

The free and reduced lunch rate is growing pretty steadily....John Marshall is nearing 40%. A growing service industry won’t stem that growth.

I find it very hard to imagine Rochester being relevant in the AA hockey world again after the next couple of years (if they are in those years).

Maybe you are right, perhaps Rochester will never be relevant again in hockey, but I think if you add that many people and you attract wealthy people, like the Mayo Clinic probably does, then I think there is certainly a shot. From what I have seen the city of Rochester is hoping to add 25,000 to 45,000 jobs, even if 70% is service jobs (which seems like a high estimation to me) you are still adding 8000 to 14,000 new positions.
It should be interesting to see how Rochester changes in the next few decades, and hopefully they become relevant in hockey again.

Interesting discussion here. Another relevant question will be, if the growth projections are accurate, where do people (and particularly the people with money) end up living? Is most of the buildable land within a single school's attendance area, or would it be distributed evenly? For that matter, would some of the growth happen outside of the Rochester school district and in, say, Dodge County? (The girls' program out that way has had some success, and it's not crazy to imagine DC playing Hermantown to Rochester's Duluth.) And if the growth happens, does Rochester open up a 4th high school, further diluting the talent they could have had in one place? We've certainly seen that dynamic play out in a number of places, including Rochester back when Century opened.

So, there's probably some potential just given the raw numbers, but a lot of questions that go along with it...to say nothing of what happens in the rest of 1AA in the coming years. Doesn't look like the growth in Lakeville is slowing down anytime soon.

karl(east) wrote: ↑Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:42 am

green4 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:14 am

goldy313 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:33 am If I had to guess 70% of the jobs will be in the service industry.....kids in those families do not play hockey in large numbers. Many of the rest will be advanced degrees in science......again not many hockey players coming from that group. More kids played bantam hockey in Rochester in 1983 with a population of 65,0000 than play now with a population of 110,000. It is more than 50% less players now, and I don’t see anything reversing that trend; sport specialization, cost, fear of concussions, etc. all are increasing.

A good run would help promote hockey. A 1977 championship and 1979 runner up at John Marshall helped a 1989 runner up team, that helped a 2007 3rd place Century team. We are at the end of that 10 year cycle. Rochester didn’t even field a bantam AA team last year.

The free and reduced lunch rate is growing pretty steadily....John Marshall is nearing 40%. A growing service industry won’t stem that growth.

I find it very hard to imagine Rochester being relevant in the AA hockey world again after the next couple of years (if they are in those years).

Maybe you are right, perhaps Rochester will never be relevant again in hockey, but I think if you add that many people and you attract wealthy people, like the Mayo Clinic probably does, then I think there is certainly a shot. From what I have seen the city of Rochester is hoping to add 25,000 to 45,000 jobs, even if 70% is service jobs (which seems like a high estimation to me) you are still adding 8000 to 14,000 new positions.
It should be interesting to see how Rochester changes in the next few decades, and hopefully they become relevant in hockey again.

Interesting discussion here. Another relevant question will be, if the growth projections are accurate, where do people (and particularly the people with money) end up living? Is most of the buildable land within a single school's attendance area, or would it be distributed evenly? For that matter, would some of the growth happen outside of the Rochester school district and in, say, Dodge County? (The girls' program out that way has had some success, and it's not crazy to imagine DC playing Hermantown to Rochester's Duluth.) And if the growth happens, does Rochester open up a 4th high school, further diluting the talent they could have had in one place? We've certainly seen that dynamic play out in a number of places, including Rochester back when Century opened.

So, there's probably some potential just given the raw numbers, but a lot of questions that go along with it...to say nothing of what happens in the rest of 1AA in the coming years. Doesn't look like the growth in Lakeville is slowing down anytime soon.

In the article I read, I know there was plans to build 5-7 new neighborhoods in Rochester.

Here is Rochester's Growth Management Map
https://www.rochestermn.gov/home/showdocument?id=21260

And here is the High School Boundaries map
http://www.rochester.k12.mn.us/UserFile ... ISD535.pdf

Blue is Century, Red is JM and Green is Mayo

The most immediate growth appears to mostly be in Century and then John Marshall, but once you get past 2040 John Marshall has the least since Century gets that whole north side with the current alignment. But the map appears to do an okay job spreading growth around the whole city.
I do not know much of the history, demographics or politics of Rochester, so I am not sure where the wealthy would land in the city. All of the areas of growth are pretty much wide open for development, so it probably depends on what type of zoning and land use restrictions they put on each area.
If I had to take a guess on where the money might go I would imagine it would be in Century and Mayo because the land there is the least constrained, which would seem to make it easier to build larger single family homes, but I haven't been to Rochester since I was 15 so I don't really know the housing situation there either.

If the population increase estimates are accurate I would think you would have to add at least one more high school, and redraw the lines.
Like you said, way too many questions to know what the future holds, but this is something I think is very interesting.

To address a whole bunch of replies........

My work group is about 120 from nursing assistanst to surgeons. 2 currently have boys that play hockey, 1 lives in Orinoco which is about 10 miles north of Rochester but in the Pine Island school district so Dodge County for high school, the other sent her kid to AAA in Omaha. Not a lot of Hockey players, swimmers and soccer players dominate.

Geographically the Rochester school district is pretty much done with development on 3 sides, they run into the Byron, Pine Island, Stewartville, and Dover-Eyota school districts. Stewartville is a co-op with Century, the rest are Dodge County. The 4th side is the North/Northeast which fights with the township and as of now is not growing. The boundary there is between Rochester and Lake City with some Plainview.

There are lots of "plans" but most require voter referendums. Under the last Century has a capped enrollment considerably smaller than Mayo or John Marshall. If families start moving into high rent apartments and condo's hockey will be fine, they won't. Someone had a great observation, Dodge County is going to be the hockey program that benefits something I never thought of. Lourdes may benefit and a small private school called Schaefer Academy may start hockey if they see a desire.

I just don't see a path where the public schools have the success, Rochester will more resemble Minneapolis than Burnsville, Blaine, or Lakeville.

I can't do it but overlaying the Rochester growth map over the school district boundaries would be informative. I believe on the northwest side they are up against if not in to the Byron school district . On the North they are into the Pine Island district. On the South they are in the Stewartville district.

goldy313 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 09, 2018 1:14 am To address a whole bunch of replies........

My work group is about 120 from nursing assistanst to surgeons. 2 currently have boys that play hockey, 1 lives in Orinoco which is about 10 miles north of Rochester but in the Pine Island school district so Dodge County for high school, the other sent her kid to AAA in Omaha. Not a lot of Hockey players, swimmers and soccer players dominate.

Geographically the Rochester school district is pretty much done with development on 3 sides, they run into the Byron, Pine Island, Stewartville, and Dover-Eyota school districts. Stewartville is a co-op with Century, the rest are Dodge County. The 4th side is the North/Northeast which fights with the township and as of now is not growing. The boundary there is between Rochester and Lake City with some Plainview.

There are lots of "plans" but most require voter referendums. Under the last Century has a capped enrollment considerably smaller than Mayo or John Marshall. If families start moving into high rent apartments and condo's hockey will be fine, they won't. Someone had a great observation, Dodge County is going to be the hockey program that benefits something I never thought of. Lourdes may benefit and a small private school called Schaefer Academy may start hockey if they see a desire.

I just don't see a path where the public schools have the success, Rochester will more resemble Minneapolis than Burnsville, Blaine, or Lakeville.

I can't do it but overlaying the Rochester growth map over the school district boundaries would be informative. I believe on the northwest side they are up against if not in to the Byron school district . On the North they are into the Pine Island district. On the South they are in the Stewartville district.

Soccer a most pathetic sport.

Not surprising that NWO is not a soccer fan.

What intrigues me is that he’s even heard soccer

I did some more research......off the major transportation routes there is a large fight developing between the city, townships, and county. The current state of agriculture has resulted in many farmers investing in and growing their operations, plus the benefit of leasing crop land to canning companies. They will not sell easily. The political fight of land holders versus the government and imminent domain is also at play here.

Who controls state government will be important here.

Mayo has never lost a fight they deemed worth fighting. Mayo was a major player in the ACA “Obamacare” and benefitted more than just about anyone. As health care evolves it stands to reason they will lose some influence, like or not we are moving towards single payer.

Back to hockey.....

blueblood wrote: ↑Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:27 am Not surprising that NWO is not a soccer fan.

What intrigues me is that he’s even heard soccer

Open borders for Czech, Finn and Scandi hockey players Blueblood and you get my write in vote November 6th for Governor!

NWO:

Oh yeah! And you can be the LT Governor in charge of MN State Hockey Operations.