HighSchoolHockeyForums.com

kcusseinop wrote:

Goldfishdude wrote:Karl... I also agree with the "needs" portion, and you have listened to my voice about my WBL Bears.

Now, because of the win versus Cretin, I think they should be right behind Eagan (sorry HHF - just teasing), and I totally agree with where you have them, as the win versus CDH "helps", because the other two wins this week versus East Ridge and Park were not good.

WBL still has to prove a little bit more to me than beating a one-trick line team in CDH. WBL still has Woodbury twice, Stillwater and Cretin again, AND, Forest Lake has proven to have upset ability, and Mounds View will be out to prove the earlier W vs WBL was not a fluke.

Now, you have Hill-Murray #2 and their need is stronger goaltending. The irony of it is that Coach Lex may have made one of the few mistakes in recent memory. He let senior Basil Sampair walk away.

When Sampair transferred to WBL Nov 10th (and ultimately ruled ineligible), he WAS the best goaltender for WBL, and after seeing him on the ice for about 6 captain's practices, he showed me enough to make me wonder "how in the world did Lex think Tim Shaughnessy was better than Sampair?" I have later heard that Sampair had attitude problems, because of lack of playing time, and I can see why.

I think if Lex kept Sampair and given him a shot, there would be a different story for two reasons. #1 Sampair may have taken the job or #2 Sampair would have provided a significant "threat" to Shaughnessy and made him improve via the practice route, or in-game focus.

H-M is still the landslide favorite to go to state, but advancing to the semi-final will be strictly based on opponent, because of goaltending.

Come on Goldy, you know better than most that stopping pucks in captains practice is a far cry from shutting down a team like WBL with an ocean of orange chanting God knows what at you for 51 minutes. Give me a break!
Sampair "might" stop the puck but look at his history with teams other than HM. Before his arrival in WBL he was kicked off AAA Madison. I wasn't there but you might want to check out what went wrong for him with that team.
As for Shaughnessy - He is 10-1-1 with 4 shutouts (HM 3 - WBL 0 on 12-15-09). GAA = 1.61 SV% = .919.
There are quite a few goalies in the state that would love to have stats like that.
This past week you said yourself he needed to come up big at St. Thomas (HM 4 - STA 2) and against Tartan (HM 3 - Tar 0). Give the kid a little credit.

Hate to admit but I agree. Its self-evident.

I can't get a grasp on Roseau, they have to rated high on tradition alone, if a 1AA team had the same record against the same opponents they'd be in the #12-15 range at best. Roseau's best win is Moorhead, a Moorhead team that lost to Fargo South. Fargo South lost to Princeton 7-3 for Pete's sake. Playing one good team and losing gets them ranked because they're Roseau. I'm not sure who should replace them as it's a muddled mess after #7 though.

Time to play some catch-up.

Slap Shot wrote:karl - question about your SOS ratings. I'm surprised to see that much separation between Tonka's and Edina's. Yes, MHS did play PCG, Hibbing and Virginia, but Edina played St. Louis Park and Chaska/Chan, and they seem to have played an even number of games again mid-level and high-level teams.

Not a big deal in the end but I did find to be curious.

I went back and looked at it again...both teams have 5 games against opponents rate '5'. The difference lies in Tonka playing only 2 '4' teams (DE, AHA), while Edina has played 5 (MG, Burnsville, ER, DE, AHA). Edina has played 4 teams rated '3' (Woodbury, GR, Chaska, and SLP---though in hindsight SLP should not be a 3. So that would knock Edina's SOS down a tiny bit, to 4.000). Tonka has played 6 teams rated '3' (Woodbury, DM, Hibbing, Virginia, Park, Stillwater). So the difference probably came from Tonka's early season games against all those 7A opponents--good A teams, but not on the level of some of the opponents Edina scheduled, like MG, ER, and Burnsville.

Next, my comment that Duluth East won't rise was probably too absolute, as several of you have noted. I'll instead say "Jefferson and Benilde are more likely to rise in the coming weeks than Duluth East is." That's just a fact of SOS, which I clearly put a lot of weight on--those two have a few more opportunities against tougher teams over the next couple of weeks, at least until East plays EP.

BodyShots wrote:Are you saying if a team wins the rest of their games, they could drop in the standings? Is score differential the driving force? Do we have to run up scores like college football in order to get top rankings. IMO, if you beat the teams put in front of you, you should not drop in the rankings. Maybe not rise, but definately not drop. That's why you don't put somebody higher than they belong at the currrent point in time.

It is possible, though highly unlikely. Anyone who watches a lot of HS hockey knows that even great teams can have some ugly slip-ups in a season (think Hill-Murray two years ago), so I definitely think we need to reward consistency. I think it's important to note that just because a team wins all its games in a given week, it's still possible for them to drop if a team right behind them has a big win or two.

Score differential isn't really the driving force; I think quality wins, or results against other good teams in general, is the most important criterion. I really don't care how many goals teams blow out the weaker competition by. I only pay attention to those games if there's an upset, or maybe if there's a trend of games being suspiciously close. If there is an upset, I do penalize pretty forcefully and consistently. That can occasionally lead to a good team (ie. Jefferson) appearing lower than they should be. I recall a similar drop of Blaine in the rankings stirring up a similar storm last year, and I did the same thing when Duluth East lost to Rochester Century last year too. That may be a practice I should re-evaluate; I don't know.

And as for Blaine, I too saw the East game and agree they have some flaws...but really, who doesn't, beyond the top 3 or so? Their only losses are by 1 goal to Edina and Tonka, and they've beaten a lot of good teams, including Hill (2), Roseau (9), Osseo (11), and Elk River (14), and STA (A #1). I think they are where they should be for now; if they start losing these close games down the stretch, they'll drop accordingly.

I agree with goldy313 on Roseau; relating back to the point above, it's hard to know what to do with a team that's winning out against a very weak schedule. Perhaps the Warroad game this week will provide some clarity.

wildnorthstarz wrote:

kcusseinop wrote:

Goldfishdude wrote:Karl... I also agree with the "needs" portion, and you have listened to my voice about my WBL Bears.

Now, because of the win versus Cretin, I think they should be right behind Eagan (sorry HHF - just teasing), and I totally agree with where you have them, as the win versus CDH "helps", because the other two wins this week versus East Ridge and Park were not good.

WBL still has to prove a little bit more to me than beating a one-trick line team in CDH. WBL still has Woodbury twice, Stillwater and Cretin again, AND, Forest Lake has proven to have upset ability, and Mounds View will be out to prove the earlier W vs WBL was not a fluke.

Now, you have Hill-Murray #2 and their need is stronger goaltending. The irony of it is that Coach Lex may have made one of the few mistakes in recent memory. He let senior Basil Sampair walk away.

When Sampair transferred to WBL Nov 10th (and ultimately ruled ineligible), he WAS the best goaltender for WBL, and after seeing him on the ice for about 6 captain's practices, he showed me enough to make me wonder "how in the world did Lex think Tim Shaughnessy was better than Sampair?" I have later heard that Sampair had attitude problems, because of lack of playing time, and I can see why.

I think if Lex kept Sampair and given him a shot, there would be a different story for two reasons. #1 Sampair may have taken the job or #2 Sampair would have provided a significant "threat" to Shaughnessy and made him improve via the practice route, or in-game focus.

H-M is still the landslide favorite to go to state, but advancing to the semi-final will be strictly based on opponent, because of goaltending.

Come on Goldy, you know better than most that stopping pucks in captains practice is a far cry from shutting down a team like WBL with an ocean of orange chanting God knows what at you for 51 minutes. Give me a break!
Sampair "might" stop the puck but look at his history with teams other than HM. Before his arrival in WBL he was kicked off AAA Madison. I wasn't there but you might want to check out what went wrong for him with that team.
As for Shaughnessy - He is 10-1-1 with 4 shutouts (HM 3 - WBL 0 on 12-15-09). GAA = 1.61 SV% = .919.
There are quite a few goalies in the state that would love to have stats like that.
This past week you said yourself he needed to come up big at St. Thomas (HM 4 - STA 2) and against Tartan (HM 3 - Tar 0). Give the kid a little credit.

Hate to admit but I agree. Its self-evident.

I have misspoken, and I apologize. I did state that Tim came up with some huge clutch saves in the final moments of the game on the game thread.

I formed my opinion on the 6, 7 times I saw him with the other WBL goalies, and didn't know the whole picture. Thanks for informing me!

karl(east) wrote:I agree with goldy313 on Roseau; relating back to the point above, it's hard to know what to do with a team that's winning out against a very weak schedule. Perhaps the Warroad game this week will provide some clarity.

That's why Jefferson at #10 or #12 is so irrational. You've said you agree about how Roseau/Wayzata's current status on your rankings is "iffy" at best and then slide Jefferson way down behind both. It just doesn't make any sense at all, especially considering Jefferson just beat Wayzata. Personally, I think your weakness is putting so much weight on a bad loss (i.e. Jefferson vs. LV North)/good tie(i.e. East vs Blaine).

That being said, I think I speak for everybody when I say Thanks for your efforts, Karl.

Roseau schedule

overall record
12-1-1

vs A
9-0-0
opponents record 51-46-4

vs AA
1-1-0
opponents record 14-7-3

vs North Dakota
2-0-1
opponents record 21-13-2

Using the USHSCO rankings found on this site, I've come up with this ranking. It is simply the Average of the overall rating and the rating of the last 5 games. This way, we give more weight (twice as much, kind of) to recent games.

Teams #2 thru #6 are so close (.15 goals per game spread) as they could almost be considered virtual ties in rank.

I think that you could consider Roseau, Duluth East under ranked as both missed key players and were on the road recently. The computer does not give any weight to home vs away.

Jefferson moves down significantly here, while Apple Valley moves up significantly.


New Rank

School Overall Last 5 *Avg* (rank based on this)
1 Mtka 16.76 16.72 16.74
2 Blaine 15.30 15.38 15.34
3 Breck 15.32 15.31 15.32
3 Edina 15.49 15.14 15.32
5 Hill M 15.21 15.32 15.27
6 Wayzata 15.39 15.00 15.20
7 Eden P 14.87 14.74 14.81
8 B Jeff 15.07 14.06 14.57
9 STA 14.38 14.41 14.40
10 BSM 14.31 14.32 14.32
11 Osseo 14.33 14.03 14.18
12 Roseau 14.38 13.79 14.09
13 Eagan 13.98 14.15 14.07
14 Centennial 13.46 14.63 14.05
15 Apple V 13.17 14.63 13.90
16 Andover 13.28 14.07 13.68
17 Mahtomedi 13.28 13.82 13.55
18 Bville 13.19 13.87 13.53
19 Duluth E 13.78 13.19 13.49
20 Warroad 13.36 13.34 13.35
21 Hermant 13.30 13.32 13.31
21 M Grove 12.98 13.63 13.31
23 WBL 12.82 13.69 13.26
24 Holy A 13.21 12.72 12.97
25 Elk River 13.04 12.88 12.96
26 Lkville So 13.15 12.53 12.84
27 Woodbury 12.75 12.47 12.61
28 Brainerd 12.45 12.52 12.49
29 Moorhead 12.93 11.94 12.44
30 Cretin 12.70 11.42 12.06

in comparison

Bloomington Jefferson schedule
9-2-1

opponents all double AA
63-61-9

common opponent
1 - Moorhead both 4-1 scores.

karl(east) wrote:Time to play some catch-up.

I went back and looked at it again...both teams have 5 games against opponents rate '5'. The difference lies in Tonka playing only 2 '4' teams (DE, AHA), while Edina has played 5 (MG, Burnsville, ER, DE, AHA). Edina has played 4 teams rated '3' (Woodbury, GR, Chaska, and SLP---though in hindsight SLP should not be a 3. So that would knock Edina's SOS down a tiny bit, to 4.000). Tonka has played 6 teams rated '3' (Woodbury, DM, Hibbing, Virginia, Park, Stillwater). So the difference probably came from Tonka's early season games against all those 7A opponents--good A teams, but not on the level of some of the opponents Edina scheduled, like MG, ER, and Burnsville.

Good stuff. Thanks.

In a backhanded way you're making my point Elliot. For example take 7-4 Rochester Century....

vs AA 5-4

AA opponents record 52-55-11, the AA opponents that beat Century 34-13-2.

So Century, like Roseau, has lost to the good teams but beaten the bad teams. What about that makes them worthy of being rated anywhere?

Take 6-5 Lakeville South ...
AA Opponents record 61-40-5, A opponents record 16-5, overall 77-45-5 and South has only played 2 teams with a losing record and beat them both.

I could throw 9-2 Brainerd in there as well, another team that gets no respect because they're Brainerd. Are any of these 4 teams very good? I don't know but Roseau has done nothing to distinguish themselves from any of the other three they just get rated becaue they have a gaudy record and because they're Roseau and not from 1AA or Brainerd, they haven't beaten anyone on the ice to show they're a top ten team, none of them have.

Roseau's schedule doesn't stack up with either Century's or South's though geography plays a huge part in that. South has actually beaten a couple of good AA teams and been close in a couple of others. South beat Cretin and Burnsville two wins which at this point may be better than anything any of the other 3 teams have done.

The Barnyard has the cupcake schedule just like the Rams to date. The Barnyard is not on Karl's radar because they have not won rip in the history of Minnesota hockey. The Sputniks throttled them 6-0 to boot so hopes of a 8AA title are a bit suspect. One interesting trait on this years blue team is they are not losing to patsy teams they are winning. FYI: Goldy I sure like that image file you have on the competition website!! I do agree with you on the Rams for right now (ranked too high). That will change though.

HShockeywatcher wrote:

CB00 wrote:

besthockeyfan wrote:Karl,
Let me first start by saying I appreciate all of the time you put into doing these rankings. You really make some good points with most teams. That said I will have to disagree with you having Duluth East at number 8. While I understand they have had a tough schedule as of late, let's review their past few weeks. Lose to Tonka 6-2 (with Tonkas backup goalie in and outshot 27-17). Tie Blaine at home (good tie but one good game every few doesn't merit a top ten ranking). Barely beat Holy Angels 3-2 who didn't win a game in the Schwan's cup and got exposed. Got beat soundly by both Hill Murray and Edina 5-1 and 3-0 respectively and tied a now unranked and struggling Moorhead 2-2. That's 1-3-2 over the last 6 games. Now I saw them play two games and they did not look like even a top 15 team to me. Another thing I wanted to point out is over those last six games they have been outscored 20-10. Now ten goals in six games to me doesn't even merit a top twenty ranking, yet they move from 13 last week (which I thought was too high as well) to 8 this week? I don't see the logic in moving a team up 5 spots with a loss (and not a close one) and a tie? While I know you are a DE fan, I need to see a lot more from this team to merit a top top 10 ranking. I also need to see a quality win, not just a win. Thanks again for your time and effort and good luck the rest of the way to your Greyhounds!

BestHockeyFan- you took the words out of my mouth. East should not ranked 8th.

I could see them in the 12-15 range. 1-3-2 doesn't justify a move up!

They'll probably be 6-0 in their next six. It's the SOS, not the schedule alone. Four of those five ties and losses came against teams ranked above them. Moorhead is well, Moorhead; good but inconsistent in the last few years. They are ranked just fine.

Imagine that, Let's Play hockey has Jefferson 7 and DE 12. Hmmmm, just what most of us were saying. Looking forward to a good weekend of hockey