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Doc Holliday wrote:I think you can justify how the seeds should go in a lot of ways. But in the end (if the high seeds hold serve in their section finals), I don't think Randolph, Lechner & the other coaches really care if Edina & Wayzata are playing for a 4th time & are concerned about a fresh match-up. They'll go based on the body of work.

1: Hill-Murray
2: Duluth East
3: Eagan
4: Edina
5: Wayzata

Giles is probably on board with that as well, considering his team is 3-0 against Wayzata.

Has anybody in HS beat a team 4 times in a season? I'm guessing the # of times it's happened could probably be counted on 1 hand. Getting to see a team 4 times is probably rare. You need a tournament game and to be in the same conference along with a post season matchup. Are there any other ways?

Edina & Tonka played 4 times in 09-10, splitting 2-2, seeing each other in the Schwans & state final along with the two conference tilts.

Although this will never happen, one could make a reasonable case for seeding Wayzata as the TOP seed. Certainly they could fall within the top three. The Trojans have beaten Hill Murray, Duluth East, Benilde (twice), Minnetonka, and Eden Prairie. Although they lost seven games, the losses came against Minnetonka (twice), Edina (three times), Benilde, and Eden Prairie. Losing close to the best teams may not prove that a team belongs among them, but beating them in six of thirteen games clearly does.

In contrast, Hill Murray won close games against Benilde, Minnetonka, Edina, Eagan, and St. Thomas, losing and tying against St. Thomas and losing to Wayzata. I include St. Thomas because I think most agree that the Cadets would be a top five Class AA team if they had moved up this year. Hill’s 5-2-1 record against top teams is enough of a sample to easily justify ranking them ahead of Wayzata, but one could at least make a reasonable argument to the contrary.

Duluth East beat Minnetonka (twice), along with Edina, Eden Prairie, Blaine, and Grand Rapids. They didn’t face Hill, Benilde, or Eagan, and lost to Wayzata. They also lost to Centennial, Breck, and Denfeld, all good teams but none of the caliber of the teams Wayzata lost to.

Edina did beat Wayzata three times, but lost to Hill, Minnetonka (twice), Eden Prairie, St. Thomas and Duluth East. They did beat Eden Prairie, Grand Rapids, and Blaine as well, but beating those teams still falls short to taking down Hill, Benilde, East, and Minnetonka like Wayzata did.

Eagan is a team that people can reasonably assume is good, but has, as of yet, proven very little due to its schedule. The Wildcats did schedule Minnetonka and Hill Murray, but lost to both. Otherwise, they played no one in the final regular season top ten, so it’s hard to legitimately rank them ahead of the teams listed above, who both scheduled, and beat, teams from the very top. I agree that Burnsville and Prior Lake (and maybe Jefferson) all made appearances in the top ten, and Eagan swept each of them. But these teams were at the bottom end of the top ten even when ranked, and none of them won a game against any team ranked higher than Blaine or Eden Prairie (neither of whom were ranked when they lost to these teams). Indeed, a somewhat flawed Edina team played them all and went 4-0. (I know that some would like to point out that Edina’s four wins were all by a goal, and only two of Eagan’s six games against them were decided by a goal. Most people recognize the weakness of such logic, but for those who don’t, one could point to Edina’s 6-1 win over Lakeville South and compare it to Eagan’s 5-4 win. Or more ridiculously, compare Edina’s 6-2 win over Grand Rapids, its 4-0 win over Centennial, its 8-1 win over Maple Grove, and 6-1 win over Lakeville South to Duluth East’s 2-1 win over Grand Rapids, 5-2 LOSS to Centennial, 3-0 win over Maple Grove, and 4-2 win over Lakeville South as evidence that Edina is better than Duluth East. I assume most people on the board would correctly see the fallacy of using such comparisons as the ultimate proof).

If one looks at how top teams fared this year against the current top ten and also consider losses to teams outside the top ten, they stack up as follows:

Hill Murray 5-2-1 (0 other losses)
Wayzata 6-7-0 (0 other losses)
Duluth East 6-1-0 (2 other losses)
Edina 7-6-0 (0 other losses)
Eagan 0-2-0 (1 other loss and 1 tie)

If we take out the wins (but not losses) over lower ranked top ten teams like Blaine, Eden Prairie, and Grand Rapids (which I think is fair because they are not arguably top five teams at least at this point), Edina drops to 3-6, East to 3-1, Wayzata to 5-7, and Hill and Eagan stay at 5-2-1 and 0-2-0.

I think focusing on wins against the top is critical instead of wins against teams that the top teams should beat regularly. For example, Eagan put up an outstanding 23-1-1 record against such teams. In contrast, East was 15-3-0. But East's losses to Centennial, Denfeld and Breck are hardly a blacker mark than Eagan's loss and tie to Eastview and Hermantown. East's 3-0 record against Minnetonka and Edina seems far more probative.

It’s an even starker contrast when looking at Hill Murray (a perfect 19-0 against teams outside the top ten), Edina (a perfect 15-0), and Wayzata (15-0 as well). My point is that you can’t legitimately seed teams primarily on wins and losses when their schedules differ significantly.

If the coaches seed the teams based on what they’ve actually proven this year, I could see it going as follows:

1. Hill Murray—they did lose to Wayzata, but proved themselves in five wins against top teams. They also went from a loss, to a tie, to a win, over St. Thomas, the only other team to blemish their record.

2. Wayzata—I could see Duluth East here as well, but it’s hard to keep dropping a team that beat each of the other best four Class AA teams in the state (one could at least argue about whether Minnetonka is four or five, but I think they are superior to Eagan and Edina, whom they swept).


3. Duluth East—I put the Greyhounds this low also because of their hiccups against good, but still lesser teams. They swept Edina and Minnetonka, but didn’t play higher-ranked Hill Murray or Benilde, and lost to Wayzata. Disclaimer: Regardless of where they’re seeded, I believe they’ll win state. Defense is one thing, but adding an unbelievable power play and penalty kill makes them nearly impossible to beat, no matter how close the scores. I actually think that their biggest challenge will come tonight against Grand Rapids mainly because East seems to play their best against the best, and Rapids will be a definite underdog.

4. Edina—The Hornets’ big wins outside of Wayzata were against the second half of the top ten and teams just outside. Still, they’ve proven not only can they play with the top teams (losing to Hill Murray, St. Thomas, and Minnetonka all in overtime), but also that they can beat top teams as well. Also, going 15-0 against a schedule of teams almost all ranked in the top 20-25 (the exceptions being Hopkins and Shakopee) makes it hard to say that their six losses are anything more than the natural result of playing one of the hardest schedules in the state.


5. Eagan—Again, the only thing we KNOW about Eagan is that they came up short against Hill and Minnetonka early in the year. There is nothing to prove that they aren’t this year’s Benilde—a team that also needed to prove its worth last year at state, but did so convincingly. By the same token, there also just isn’t anything to prove they’re anything better than the seventh best class AA team (behind the four teams above plus Minnetonka and Benilde) right now. Notably, seventh is actually higher than the eighth spot that both Karl and Let’s Play Hockey gave them to start the year. To those who disagree, I question what has happened over the course of the season to rank them any higher, other than the fact that teams ranked higher at the outset beat up on each other making their records less gaudy than a team that took a different approach. Again, they will have the chance to eliminate the doubts on the ice, and I doubt any of the other teams would be confident playing against them. I just don’t think you can ignore what the other top teams have done in favor of what you think Eagan might do if tested.

What I’ve done above is try to present a logical explanation for what I think the coaches could possibly do. What I think they WILL do is seed Hill first and Edina fifth (I agree with all the comments that the Hornets are just leaving too little margin for error and are not playing at championship level). I think East will end up second because some will give Edina higher votes for sweeping Wayzata, and take them away from Wayzata and Eagan. I think Eagan will be fourth because in the end they’re more highly regarded than Edina right now, but they’ll still lose enough votes to both Wayzata and Edina to fall behind the Trojans.

Of course, the first year they seeded (2007) the coaches simply agreed to rely on the final regular season Let’s Play Hockey rankings. If they did that again, it would drop Wayzata to four or five because it wouldn’t take into account its recent wins over Minnetonka and Benilde. But the coaches have been a bit more independent lately.

Obviously, Grand Rapids, Eastview, and White Bear Lake will have something to say about this as well, and I don’t mean to suggest that one or more of them won’t win and muck this up. But unless they all lose, I think the points above still apply and it will be interesting to see how the coaches weigh the various arguments.

Rich Clarke wrote:Although this will never happen, one could make a reasonable case for seeding Wayzata as the TOP seed. Certainly they could fall within the top three. The Trojans have beaten Hill Murray, Duluth East, Benilde (twice), Minnetonka, and Eden Prairie. Although they lost seven games, the losses came against Minnetonka (twice), Edina (three times), Benilde, and Eden Prairie. Losing close to the best teams may not prove that a team belongs among them, but beating them in six of thirteen games clearly does.

In contrast, Hill Murray won close games against Benilde, Minnetonka, Edina, Eagan, and St. Thomas, losing and tying against St. Thomas and losing to Wayzata. I include St. Thomas because I think most agree that the Cadets would be a top five Class AA team if they had moved up this year. Hill’s 5-2-1 record against top teams is enough of a sample to easily justify ranking them ahead of Wayzata, but one could at least make a reasonable argument to the contrary.

Duluth East beat Minnetonka (twice), along with Edina, Eden Prairie, Blaine, and Grand Rapids. They didn’t face Hill, Benilde, or Eagan, and lost to Wayzata. They also lost to Centennial, Breck, and Denfeld, all good teams but none of the caliber of the teams Wayzata lost to.

Edina did beat Wayzata three times, but lost to Hill, Minnetonka (twice), Eden Prairie, St. Thomas and Duluth East. They did beat Eden Prairie, Grand Rapids, and Blaine as well, but beating those teams still falls short to taking down Hill, Benilde, East, and Minnetonka like Wayzata did.

Eagan is a team that people can reasonably assume is good, but has, as of yet, proven very little due to its schedule. The Wildcats did schedule Minnetonka and Hill Murray, but lost to both. Otherwise, they played no one in the final regular season top ten, so it’s hard to legitimately rank them ahead of the teams listed above, who both scheduled, and beat, teams from the very top. I agree that Burnsville and Prior Lake (and maybe Jefferson) all made appearances in the top ten, and Eagan swept each of them. But these teams were at the bottom end of the top ten even when ranked, and none of them won a game against any team ranked higher than Blaine or Eden Prairie (neither of whom were ranked when they lost to these teams). Indeed, a somewhat flawed Edina team played them all and went 4-0. (I know that some would like to point out that Edina’s four wins were all by a goal, and only two of Eagan’s six games against them were decided by a goal. Most people recognize the weakness of such logic, but for those who don’t, one could point to Edina’s 6-1 win over Lakeville South and compare it to Eagan’s 5-4 win. Or more ridiculously, compare Edina’s 6-2 win over Grand Rapids, its 4-0 win over Centennial, its 8-1 win over Maple Grove, and 6-1 win over Lakeville South to Duluth East’s 2-1 win over Grand Rapids, 5-2 LOSS to Centennial, 3-0 win over Maple Grove, and 4-2 win over Lakeville South as evidence that Edina is better than Duluth East. I assume most people on the board would correctly see the fallacy of using such comparisons as the ultimate proof).

If one looks at how top teams fared this year against the current top ten and also consider losses to teams outside the top ten, they stack up as follows:

Hill Murray 5-2-1 (0 other losses)
Wayzata 6-7-0 (0 other losses)
Duluth East 6-1-0 (2 other losses)
Edina 7-6-0 (0 other losses)
Eagan 0-2-0 (1 other loss and 1 tie)

If we take out the wins (but not losses) over lower ranked top ten teams like Blaine, Eden Prairie, and Grand Rapids (which I think is fair because they are not arguably top five teams at least at this point), Edina drops to 3-6, East to 3-1, Wayzata to 5-7, and Hill and Eagan stay at 5-2-1 and 0-2-0.

I think focusing on wins against the top is critical instead of wins against teams that the top teams should beat regularly. For example, Eagan put up an outstanding 23-1-1 record against such teams. In contrast, East was 15-3-0. But East's losses to Centennial, Denfeld and Breck are hardly a blacker mark than Eagan's loss and tie to Eastview and Hermantown. East's 3-0 record against Minnetonka and Edina seems far more probative.

It’s an even starker contrast when looking at Hill Murray (a perfect 19-0 against teams outside the top ten), Edina (a perfect 15-0), and Wayzata (15-0 as well). My point is that you can’t legitimately seed teams primarily on wins and losses when their schedules differ significantly.

If the coaches seed the teams based on what they’ve actually proven this year, I could see it going as follows:

1. Hill Murray—they did lose to Wayzata, but proved themselves in five wins against top teams. They also went from a loss, to a tie, to a win, over St. Thomas, the only other team to blemish their record.

2. Wayzata—I could see Duluth East here as well, but it’s hard to keep dropping a team that beat each of the other best four Class AA teams in the state (one could at least argue about whether Minnetonka is four or five, but I think they are superior to Eagan and Edina, whom they swept).


3. Duluth East—I put the Greyhounds this low also because of their hiccups against good, but still lesser teams. They swept Edina and Minnetonka, but didn’t play higher-ranked Hill Murray or Benilde, and lost to Wayzata. Disclaimer: Regardless of where they’re seeded, I believe they’ll win state. Defense is one thing, but adding an unbelievable power play and penalty kill makes them nearly impossible to beat, no matter how close the scores. I actually think that their biggest challenge will come tonight against Grand Rapids mainly because East seems to play their best against the best, and Rapids will be a definite underdog.

4. Edina—The Hornets’ big wins outside of Wayzata were against the second half of the top ten and teams just outside. Still, they’ve proven not only can they play with the top teams (losing to Hill Murray, St. Thomas, and Minnetonka all in overtime), but also that they can beat top teams as well. Also, going 15-0 against a schedule of teams almost all ranked in the top 20-25 (the exceptions being Hopkins and Shakopee) makes it hard to say that their six losses are anything more than the natural result of playing one of the hardest schedules in the state.


5. Eagan—Again, the only thing we KNOW about Eagan is that they came up short against Hill and Minnetonka early in the year. There is nothing to prove that they aren’t this year’s Benilde—a team that also needed to prove its worth last year at state, but did so convincingly. By the same token, there also just isn’t anything to prove they’re anything better than the seventh best class AA team (behind the four teams above plus Minnetonka and Benilde) right now. Notably, seventh is actually higher than the eighth spot that both Karl and Let’s Play Hockey gave them to start the year. To those who disagree, I question what has happened over the course of the season to rank them any higher, other than the fact that teams ranked higher at the outset beat up on each other making their records less gaudy than a team that took a different approach. Again, they will have the chance to eliminate the doubts on the ice, and I doubt any of the other teams would be confident playing against them. I just don’t think you can ignore what the other top teams have done in favor of what you think Eagan might do if tested.

What I’ve done above is try to present a logical explanation for what I think the coaches could possibly do. What I think they WILL do is seed Hill first and Edina fifth (I agree with all the comments that the Hornets are just leaving too little margin for error and are not playing at championship level). I think East will end up second because some will give Edina higher votes for sweeping Wayzata, and take them away from Wayzata and Eagan. I think Eagan will be fourth because in the end they’re more highly regarded than Edina right now, but they’ll still lose enough votes to both Wayzata and Edina to fall behind the Trojans.

Of course, the first year they seeded (2007) the coaches simply agreed to rely on the final regular season Let’s Play Hockey rankings. If they did that again, it would drop Wayzata to four or five because it wouldn’t take into account its recent wins over Minnetonka and Benilde. But the coaches have been a bit more independent lately.

Obviously, Grand Rapids, Eastview, and White Bear Lake will have something to say about this as well, and I don’t mean to suggest that one or more of them won’t win and muck this up. But unless they all lose, I think the points above still apply and it will be interesting to see how the coaches weigh the various arguments.

Although long winded, I got to say a very well thought out description of each team among the top 5.

Body shots:

Attorneys are longwinded. It's in our nature!

Top notch, Rich! Top notch!

I can't argue anything you said; I just think that Eagan's 3 losses will win out in an argument over Edina & Wayzata's body of work when it comes down to it. But I can't argue what you said.

I do think if it's between Edina & Wayzata for 4 & 5, Edina's 3-0 record should be worth something, in this case, the last line change.

Does anybody know if they just take a ranking vote & it they figure it out 1 through 5, or do they figure out the 1st seed first, then the 2nd, then the 3rd? It's almost as if it's between Edina, Eagan & Wayzata for the 3rd, Wayzata should be the 3rd, but if it goes to Eagan & it's between Edina & Wayzata for the 4th, Edina should be the 4th. Hope I made sense with that rambling.

BodyShots wrote:

Rich Clarke wrote:Although this will never happen, one could make a reasonable case for seeding Wayzata as the TOP seed. Certainly they could fall within the top three. The Trojans have beaten Hill Murray, Duluth East, Benilde (twice), Minnetonka, and Eden Prairie. Although they lost seven games, the losses came against Minnetonka (twice), Edina (three times), Benilde, and Eden Prairie. Losing close to the best teams may not prove..........................................snip.........................................................................Obviously, Grand Rapids, Eastview, and White Bear Lake will have something to say about this as well, and I don’t mean to suggest that one or more of them won’t win and muck this up. But unless they all lose, I think the points above still apply and it will be interesting to see how the coaches weigh the various arguments.

Although long winded, I got to say a very well thought out description of each team among the top 5.

Typical 6AA posturing (although a little earlier and far more long-winded than previous years' examples). To be followed a few days from now by even more typical 6AA whining about how the coaches all conspired to ignore logic and job Wayzata from its rightful due.

To be fair to the 6AA posturing, the section has won 3 of the past 4 state titles & was runner-up in the other one.

I do think it's fair to give a little bit extra credit to the 6AA champion.

Rich Clarke wrote:
If one looks at how top teams fared this year against the current top ten and also consider losses to teams outside the top ten, they stack up as follows:

Hill Murray 5-2-1 (0 other losses)
Wayzata 6-7-0 (0 other losses)
Duluth East 6-1-0 (2 other losses)
Edina 7-6-0 (0 other losses)
Eagan 0-2-0 (1 other loss and 1 tie)

Nice work Rich and a good read. The only real problem I have with your analysis is the arbitrary cutoff at the "current top 10". If "current top 10" are accurate enough to base a judgement on then they must be accurate enough to stand as they are.

If we are going to give credence to the "current" rankings then that's the end of story, they are what they. No juggling neccessary.

However, if we want to recognize the fluency of the rankings then we have to include more teams, as many teams have been bouncing in and out. It's simply not fair (or accurate) to give teams credit for current wins over Eden Prairie, for example, (who have been in the top 10 a total of 3 weeks this year) , while discounting wins over teams like Burnsville, who spent the lions share of the season in the top 10 and would probably return based on current results.

It would be more reasonable to count wins against the Top 15, which does include teams who have been drifting in and out of the top 10, but then your numbers are very different.

They would then break down like this ...

Hill Murray 6-1 (86%)
Eagan 6-2 (75%)
Duluth East 6-2 (75%)
Edina 12-5 (71%)
Wayzata 8-7 (53%)

However, it seems like your analysis is only willing to use "current top 10" in order to spin a different result. Arbitrarily cutting off teams worthy of beating at a point that favors your end argument.

Again, if the "current top 10" is accurate enough to cull for a different result, then it must also be accurate enough to stand on it's own.

1.) Hill Murray
2.) Duluth East
3.) Eagan
4.) Edina
5.) Wayzata

Good analysis, Rich, and though I'll stick with what I have, I would not be at all bothered if things turned out that way. (And I sure hope you're right about the Hounds...)

Given the teams left in the field right now, there isn't a huge difference between being ranked 1-3. That gets you a 2/3 shot at either the 8AA or the 1AA team, and while Centennial should not be taken lightly, they're also a step behind the other five. Nor do I think there is really any one team that everyone would want to avoid in the semis. What teams really want to avoid is being 4 or 5, which would stick them with three games against top-notch teams.

Of course, an upset or two tonight or tomorrow makes that all academic.

karl(east) wrote:Of course, an upset or two tonight or tomorrow makes that all academic.

Are you getting nervous Karl? (Lee slipped me an immunity idol )

Rich Clarke wrote:Body shots:

Attorneys are longwinded. It's in our nature!

So who wrote this for you?

D3Referee wrote:

karl(east) wrote:Of course, an upset or two tonight or tomorrow makes that all academic.

Are you getting nervous Karl? (Lee slipped me an immunity idol )

Welcome back.

I'm no more nervous than I am before any other big East game. So, yeah, pretty nervous.

almostashappy wrote:[
Typical 6AA posturing (although a little earlier and far more long-winded than previous years' examples). To be followed a few days from now by even more typical 6AA whining about how the coaches all conspired to ignore logic and job Wayzata from its rightful due.

Given that I am picking Duluth East, my kids attend school in Eagan (I live just south of Thomson Reuters), and I attended Edina West, "posturing" for Wayzata or 6AA is a bit of a stretch. But let the boys prove it on the ice. If your Wildcats do win state, I'll be the first to say they proved they were the best. Like I said, they could be this year's Benilde. But if they go 1-2 again, I can only hope that you're able to concede that perhaps there were some teams that were actually better than they were. [/i]

elliott70 wrote:

Rich Clarke wrote:Body shots:

Attorneys are longwinded. It's in our nature!

So who wrote this for you?

Can you say..... dictate.

scorekeeper wrote: Again, if the "current top 10" is accurate enough to cull for a different result, then it must also be accurate enough to stand on it's own.

1.) Hill Murray
2.) Duluth East
3.) Eagan
4.) Edina
5.) Wayzata

Simple and succinct...but then, scorekeeper isn't a lawyer.

scorekeeper wrote:

Rich Clarke wrote:
If one looks at how top teams fared this year against the current top ten and also consider losses to teams outside the top ten, they stack up as follows:

Hill Murray 5-2-1 (0 other losses)
Wayzata 6-7-0 (0 other losses)
Duluth East 6-1-0 (2 other losses)
Edina 7-6-0 (0 other losses)
Eagan 0-2-0 (1 other loss and 1 tie)

Nice work Rich and a good read. The only real problem I have with your analysis is the arbitrary cutoff at the "current top 10". If "current top 10" are accurate enough to base a judgement on then they must be accurate enough to stand as they are.

If we are going to give credence to the "current" rankings then that's the end of story, they are what they. No juggling neccessary.

However, if we want to recognize the fluency of the rankings then we have to include more teams, as many teams have been bouncing in and out. It's simply not fair (or accurate) to give teams credit for current wins over Eden Prairie, for example, (who have been in the top 10 a total of 3 weeks this year) , while discounting wins over teams like Burnsville, who spent the lions share of the season in the top 10 and would probably return based on current results.

It would be more reasonable to count wins against the Top 15, which does include teams who have been drifting in and out of the top 10, but then your numbers are very different.

They would then break down like this ...

Hill Murray 6-1 (86%)
Eagan 6-2 (75%)
Duluth East 6-2 (75%)
Edina 12-5 (71%)
Wayzata 8-7 (53%)

However, it seems like your analysis is only willing to use "current top 10" in order to spin a different result. Arbitrarily cutting off teams worthy of beating at a point that favors your end argument.

Again, if the "current top 10" is accurate enough to cull for a different result, then it must also be accurate enough to stand on it's own.

1.) Hill Murray
2.) Duluth East
3.) Eagan
4.) Edina
5.) Wayzata

I agree that they're fluid. That's why I suggested taking out EP, Grand Rapids, and Blaine. Mine skews things toward games against the top 5-6. Yours gives equal credit for wins against teams that would be ranked 8-15 and skews it in favor of teams with better overall records but softer schedules. Considering we're evaluating who the very top teams are, I think mine is more appropriate.

Rich Clarke wrote:

scorekeeper wrote:

Rich Clarke wrote:
If one looks at how top teams fared this year against the current top ten and also consider losses to teams outside the top ten, they stack up as follows:

Hill Murray 5-2-1 (0 other losses)
Wayzata 6-7-0 (0 other losses)
Duluth East 6-1-0 (2 other losses)
Edina 7-6-0 (0 other losses)
Eagan 0-2-0 (1 other loss and 1 tie)

Nice work Rich and a good read. The only real problem I have with your analysis is the arbitrary cutoff at the "current top 10". If "current top 10" are accurate enough to base a judgement on then they must be accurate enough to stand as they are.

If we are going to give credence to the "current" rankings then that's the end of story, they are what they. No juggling neccessary.

However, if we want to recognize the fluency of the rankings then we have to include more teams, as many teams have been bouncing in and out. It's simply not fair (or accurate) to give teams credit for current wins over Eden Prairie, for example, (who have been in the top 10 a total of 3 weeks this year) , while discounting wins over teams like Burnsville, who spent the lions share of the season in the top 10 and would probably return based on current results.

It would be more reasonable to count wins against the Top 15, which does include teams who have been drifting in and out of the top 10, but then your numbers are very different.

They would then break down like this ...

Hill Murray 6-1 (86%)
Eagan 6-2 (75%)
Duluth East 6-2 (75%)
Edina 12-5 (71%)
Wayzata 8-7 (53%)

However, it seems like your analysis is only willing to use "current top 10" in order to spin a different result. Arbitrarily cutting off teams worthy of beating at a point that favors your end argument.

Again, if the "current top 10" is accurate enough to cull for a different result, then it must also be accurate enough to stand on it's own.

1.) Hill Murray
2.) Duluth East
3.) Eagan
4.) Edina
5.) Wayzata

I agree that they're fluid. That's why I suggested taking out EP, Grand Rapids, and Blaine. Mine skews things toward games against the top 5-6. Yours gives equal credit for wins against teams that would be ranked 8-15 and skews it in favor of teams with better overall records but softer schedules. Considering we're evaluating who the very top teams are, I think mine is more appropriate.

Except it's not a balanced schedule or even close to it. Given the minute sample size, your evaluation is relatively meaningless ... and since it's based on the current top 10 (or top 5-8 ) as it stands right now , then those rankings should just stand.

All your argument does is go to a lot of trouble to eliminate enough teams/games to change the outcome in favor of the lower ranked teams, so it certainly seems agenda-based, regardless of where your kids go to school. Northern Educate I am guessing ...

almostashappy wrote:

scorekeeper wrote: Again, if the "current top 10" is accurate enough to cull for a different result, then it must also be accurate enough to stand on it's own.

1.) Hill Murray
2.) Duluth East
3.) Eagan
4.) Edina
5.) Wayzata

Simple and succinct...but then, scorekeeper isn't a lawyer.

Well, I have ripped up a parking ticket once or twice

All your argument does is go to a lot of trouble to eliminate enough teams/games to change the outcome in favor of the lower ranked teams, so it certainly seems agenda-based, regardless of where your kids go to school. Northern Educate I am guessing ...[/quote]

Agenda? Do you really think that the coaches actually read, let alone consider anything you or I have to say in deciding how to vote?

And are you really so threatened by the possibility that your team may not be as dominant as you want to believe that you find it necessary to challenge my veracity as to where I live and have kids in school instead of letting the actual game be the ultimate proof? Oh yeah--that didn't work out so well last year did it?

Give it a rest. Whoever is still standing in ten days is all that matters.

Rich Clarke wrote:
Agenda? Do you really think that the coaches actually read, let alone consider anything you or I have to say in deciding how to vote?

And are you really so threatened by the possibility that your team may not be as dominant as you want to believe that you find it necessary to challenge my veracity as to where I live and have kids in school instead of letting the actual game be the ultimate proof? Oh yeah--that didn't work out so well last year did it?

Give it a rest. Whoever is still standing in ten days is all that matters.

Give it a rest?

I wasn't the one who went to all the trouble of writing a novel to spins the seeds.

I just talked to Happy....he said Eagan should be five, and Wayzata should be 3.

"Agenda? Do you really think that the coaches actually read, let alone consider anything you or I have to say in deciding how to vote? "

BINGO!

But I am inclined to believe given those teams in the tourney, the seeds will end up just as you proposed Rich.

D3Referee wrote:

HShockeywatcher wrote: I think a case could be made for Eagan to be lower (or higher) for that matter. While they lost in OT to Hill, the only other teams at state they have played this year will be the 1AA representative...this assumes they make it to state.

All due respect, but I hope that dog doesn't hunt. If it was settled on your record vs teams at State (assuming the remaining favorites make it in), the seeds would be like this;

1.) Hill Murray 4-1 (loss was 3-1 to Wayzata)
2.) Edina 4-2 (lost to East 4-1, HM in OT)
3.) Eagan 2-1 (loss was to HM in OT)
4.) Centennial 2-1 (loss was 4-0 to Edina)
5.) Duluth East 3-2 (lost 1-0 to Wayzata, 5-2 to Centennial)
6.) Wayzata 3-3 (all 3 losses to Edina)
7.) Moorhead 0-4 (lost to East, HM, Cent, Wayzata)
8.) Lakeville North 0-4 (lost to East, HM & Eagan twice)

I guess we just pray for an Eagan or East loss tomorrow (or Hill Murray on Friday) and all of this will truly take care of itself.

I agree it's not perfect, nor am I predicting anything. I've personally been a fan of Eagan in recent years, but I think that who you need to prove more than they have. Just my opinion. There's nothing wrong with being a good team and not being seeded.

All I'm saying is that I think Wayzata should get some credit for who they beat to get to state. Really, those top 5 could go in almost any order. As Rich Clarke pointed out, there are some good claims to be made for some other orders. Guess we'll see.

I thought they only seeded the top 4, why is there a discussion about #5?