HighSchoolHockeyForums.com

SECTION 1

5:2 Lakeville North
7:2 Rochester Century
11:2 Owatonna
6:1 Lakeville South
10:1 Rochester Mayo
20:1 Rochester John Marshall
50:1 Farmington
100:1 Dodge County corrected
1000:1 Winona corrected

SECTION 2

3:4 Edina
3:1 Holy Angels
10:1 Burnsville
20:1 Bloomington Jefferson
30:1 Chaska
100:1 Shakopee
100:1 Prior Lake
150:1 Bloomington Kennedy

SECTION 3

2:1 Rosemount
2:1 Cretin-Derham Hall
4:1 Woodbury
10:1 Eagan
12:1 Eastview
20:1 Apple Valley
100:1 Hastings
150:1 Park
200:1 Henry Sibley

SECTION 4

Even Hill-Murray
4:1 White Bear Lake
10:1 Roseville
10:1 Stillwater
25:1 North
35:1 Tartan
50:1 Mounds View
125:1 St. Paul Johnson
150:1 St. Paul Como Park

SECTION 5

2:3 Centennial
4:1 Blaine
10:1 Maple Grove
20:1 Rogers
40:1 Champlin Park
50:1 Coon Rapids
100:1 Osseo
100:1 Irondale
100:1 North Metro

SECTION 6

2:1 Benilde-St. Margaret's
3:1 Minnetonka
4:1 Eden Prairie
5:1 Wayzata
25:1 Robbinsdale Armstrong
30:1 Hopkins
100:1 Robbinsdale Cooper
1000:1 Minneapolis West
10000:1 Minneapolis East

SECTION 7

3:2 Anoka
4:1 Duluth East
4:1 Cloquet
10:1 Grand Rapids
15:1 Elk River
30:1 Forest Lake
100:1 Andover
500:1 Cambridge-Isanti
1000:1 St. Francis

SECTION 8

3:7 Roseau
4:1 Moorhead
20:1 Buffalo
20:1 Brainerd
25:1 Northern Lakes
50:1 St. Cloud Tech
100:1 Monticello
100:1 Becker-Big Lake
150:1 River Lakes

Currently taking bets?

If you are aggressive...Jefferson at 20:1 looks pretty good.

Can I do a tri box or an exacta?

packerboy wrote:Can I do a tri box or an exacta?

You? No.

Pagans? Yes.

O-clown, not sure if I understand your system for odds.

4:1 your chances are 1 out of 4 you will make the state tour., right?

3:7 as in Roseau's case they would make it 7 times in three years? Is this what you are saying.

And if it were a betting line and I bet on Roseau wouldn't it be for every
3$ you win you would have to give back 4$ ?

I thought odds could not be greater than 1:1.

Thanks, Confused gambler

OGEE OGELTHORPE wrote:O-clown, not sure if I understand your system for odds.

4:1 your chances are 1 out of 4 you will make the state tour., right?

3:7 as in Roseau's case they would make it 7 times in three years? Is this what you are saying.

And if it were a betting line and I bet on Roseau wouldn't it be for every
3$ you win you would have to give back 4$ ?

I thought odds could not be greater than 1:1.

Thanks, Confused gambler

4:1 odds is 1 in 5.

3:7 is 7 in 10.

To make it easy for you, "Even odds" is 1:1. You risk one to win one or get two back.

A "sure thing" is like 1:10. Horseracing pari-mutuel minimums need to pay out $2.20 for a $2 bet.

One thing to note: all odds are "true" odds and not betting odds with a generous cut for the house. You won't be able to get odds this good from your bookie. Do the math and you'll see each region adds up to about 100%. Maybe a little off due to rounding.

That clears it up.

I am going to do a pick 6.

How many minutes till post?

That clears it up.

I am going to do a pick 6.

How many minutes till post?

packerboy wrote: I am going to do a pick 6.

Maybe start another thread and see if anyone can nail the Pick 8 this year.

Mine:

Rochester Century
Edina
Cretin-Derham Hall
Hill-Murray
Centennial
Minnetonka
Cloquet
Roseau

packerboy wrote:That clears it up.

I am going to do a pick 6.

How many minutes till post?



That clears it up.

I am going to do a pick 6.

How many minutes till post?

what were you doubling down???

OGEE OGELTHORPE wrote:O-clown, not sure if I understand your system for odds.

4:1 your chances are 1 out of 4 you will make the state tour., right?

3:7 as in Roseau's case they would make it 7 times in three years? Is this what you are saying.

And if it were a betting line and I bet on Roseau wouldn't it be for every
3$ you win you would have to give back 4$ ?

I thought odds could not be greater than 1:1.

Thanks, Confused gambler

The system is set up so the odds of the house winning are greater and adjusted based on the money packer boy puts down to influence the odds of him losing to be higher.

Just remember to declare your winnings so you can also deduct your losses

Some things are worth saying twice.

IMO , there is no such thing as true odds.

Thats why it's called gambling.

I'm gambling that the house always wins in the long run

packerboy wrote:Some things are worth saying twice.

IMO , there is no such thing as true odds.

Thats why it's called gambling.

Uh, no. If a coin-flip is equally likely heads or tails the true odds are Even or 1:1. It's just math.

There is a 100% chance one of the teams from Section 1 will be at the State Tournament (if you assume with me that the nuclear day of reckoning doesn't come, in which case nobody is here to care). The "true odds" will total 100%. No more, no less.

It's just math.

Its a translation of probability into math. Sometimes things get lost in the translation

You could flip 10 tails in a row.

There is nothing true about it.

Maybe you should do it like this then...so it is more "bored friendly"

SECTION 8

Roseau 45%
Moorhead 30%
Buffalo 10%
Brainerd 10%
Northern Lakes .5%
St. Cloud Tech 3 %
Monticello .5%
Becker-Big Lake .5%
River Lakes .5%

On second thought, I'm not sure this was an easier.

O-townClown wrote:SECTION 1


100:1 Winona
1000:1 Dodge County

That's interesting, especially since Dodge County beat Winona last year 7-2 and 6-3.

It's just math though.

This has been removed

Were you expecting something better?

packerboy wrote: You could flip 10 tails in a row.

Yes, and the likelihood of you doing that is

1
----
2^10th

or

1 in 1,024

or 1,023:1.

True odds.

boblee wrote:Maybe you should do it like this then...so it is more "bored friendly"

SECTION 8

Roseau 45%
Moorhead 30%
Buffalo 10%
Brainerd 10%
Northern Lakes .5%
St. Cloud Tech 3 %
Monticello .5%
Becker-Big Lake .5%
River Lakes .5%

Bob: Good point. Some people would rather have probability than odds.

I did start with percentages before translating to odds.

For Section 8 it was:

Roseau - 70%
Moorehead - 20%
Buffalo - 5%
Brainerd - 5%
Northern Lakes - 4%
Other - slim

I believe Roseau has the best chance of all teams to make it to the state tournament for two reasons.

#1 - They are a strong team, and
#2 - the rest of their section isn't as strong as some others.

Puckhandler wrote:That's interesting, especially since Dodge County beat Winona last year 7-2 and 6-3.

It's just math though.

1. For obvious reasons more attention was spent at the top of the sections.
2. I have an inherent bias against teams not named after schools, at least as far as expecting them to make state.
3. Neither has a snowball's chance.
4. I didn't look to see that one computer ranking had Dodge County 98th last season and Winona 143rd. The other had Dodge County 100th and Winona still 143rd.

Mea culpa. I stand corrected. Go ahead and invert those two. Thanks for the correction.

Tony Civ wrote:Well thats comforting for me. I'm a senior goalie at Mounds View in Sec 4AA and our odds to make it to state are 50:1 sounds good!

Tony, that's why the play the games. My friends on the Edina 1987 team didn't even get a bye in the first round of the playoffs. The puck dropped at Braemar Arena and they were down 1-0 to Hutchinson. Yikes.

Two hours later they were 10-1 winners to advance to the Section 6 quarterfinals.

Less than two weeks later they were OT victors in a thriller over Minnetonka and headed to state. A late-season JV callup notched the winner on a seeing-eye shot from the point.

A year later they were the State Champs. It was hard to see it coming.

That's why the play the games. As the optimist says... "50-1. So you're saying there's still a chance!"

For you, since you are a netminder...

In 1986 Edina, Hill-Murray, and Burnsville were the best three teams in the state. To reach the tournament, #1 ranked Edina would have to get out of a section that included very good teams from Minnetonka and Armstrong.

In the semi, a Richfield goaltender stood on his head and stopped 50 rubbers to key an upset of the Hornets. He walked into the lunchroom the next day and was greeted by a 10-minute standing ovation. The next night they capitalized on the momentum and won another shocker.

Damian Rhodes goes on to play 10 years in the NHL. Nobody could see that coming.

That's why they play the games. Don't let it get you down. Good luck getting past Hill and White Bear and the others.

This has been removed