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Using PS2 (and just a tiny amount of geography) I have broken down the field into a one class 64 team field. Using a probability simulator, I will be showing you the results.

South Regional-Top Bracket (Rochester Rec)

S1 Edina
S16 Red Wing

S8 Wayzata
S9 Rochester Lourdes

S5 Eden Prairie
S12 Lakeville South

S4 Holy Angels
S13 New Prague

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S1 Edina
S9 Rochester Lourdes

S12 Lakeville South
S4 Holy Angels

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Regional Semi-Final (Aldrich Arena)

S1 Edina
S4 Holy Angels

Holy Angels to St. Paul as S1

South Regional-Bottom Bracket (Lakeville)

S6 Bloomington Jefferson
S11 Albert Lea

S3 Eastview
S14 Forest Lake

S7 Mankato West
S10 Cretin-Derham Hall

S2 St. Thomas
S15 Rochester Mayo

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S6 Bloomington Jefferson
S3 Eastview

S10 Cretin-Derham Hall
S2 St. Thomas

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Regional Semi-Final (Aldrich Arena)

S6 Bloomington Jefferson
S10 Cretin-Derham Hall

Bloomington Jefferson to St. Paul as S2

probability simulator ???

What is the formula? You've got Edina losing to Holy Angels and someone else has their dice showing a surprising loss at the hands of Denfeld. Denfeld has a hockey team?

How likely were you showing Edina to lose? The method is only as good as the input. If these guys are losing to Holy Angels and Denfeld in theory, there's no chance they'll win the suburb's 10th title in reality.

O-townClown wrote:probability simulator ???

What is the formula? You've got Edina losing to Holy Angels and someone else has their dice showing a surprising loss at the hands of Denfeld. Denfeld has a hockey team?

How likely were you showing Edina to lose? The method is only as good as the input. If these guys are losing to Holy Angels and Denfeld in theory, there's no chance they'll win the suburb's 10th title in reality.

It's a double based percentage. I found it online somewhere last year. It is actually reciprocal double based percentage.

Example

Edina is a 1 seed and Holy Angels is a 4 seed.

You reverse it and Edina has a 4/5 chance (or 80 percent chance) of winning. Instead of having it be 8/10, it is 16/20. Then a 20-sided dice is rolled. 1-16 Edina wins, 17-20 Holy Angels wins. Since anything can happen in a given game (see any upsets ever) I only have the 20 sided dice rolled once per game.

O-townClown wrote:probability simulator ???

What is the formula? You've got Edina losing to Holy Angels and someone else has their dice showing a surprising loss at the hands of Denfeld. Denfeld has a hockey team?

How likely were you showing Edina to lose? The method is only as good as the input. If these guys are losing to Holy Angels and Denfeld in theory, there's no chance they'll win the suburb's 10th title in reality.

Its just make-believe.

and boblee hates on edina

DadsMoney wrote:and boblee hates on edina

Hey, aren't you the guy that continually told me Grand Rapids couldn't beat Edina last year at state?

boblee wrote:

DadsMoney wrote:and boblee hates on edina

Hey, aren't you the guy that continually told me Grand Rapids couldn't beat Edina last year at state?

Hey, aren't you the guy who's team isn't playing at the x this year?

boblee wrote:
It's a double based percentage. I found it online somewhere last year. It is actually reciprocal double based percentage.

Example

Edina is a 1 seed and Holy Angels is a 4 seed.

You reverse it and Edina has a 4/5 chance (or 80 percent chance) of winning. Instead of having it be 8/10, it is 16/20. Then a 20-sided dice is rolled. 1-16 Edina wins, 17-20 Holy Angels wins. Since anything can happen in a given game (see any upsets ever) I only have the 20 sided dice rolled once per game.

Gotcha. It is wholly reliant on the seeding then. The problem - obviously - is that is can be seriously out of whack. Roseau did not have an 80% chance of winning their semi and they did not have a 67% chance of winning the final over Moorhead.

Other times we saw a 1/3 game that was pretty even on paper, like with Blaine & Centennial.

Thanks for the explanation. I was hoping you had something like the likelihood of a win by the difference in PS2 rating (not ranking). For example, 21.19 - 19.74 is 1.45 and the favorite wins ___% of the time when this occurs. Nothing wrong with your approach, but it is crude by comparison.

1-2 Roseau/Moorhead definitely does not equal 1-2 Benilde/'Tonka.

DadsMoney wrote:

boblee wrote:

DadsMoney wrote:and boblee hates on edina

Hey, aren't you the guy that continually told me Grand Rapids couldn't beat Edina last year at state?

Hey, aren't you the guy who's team isn't playing at the x this year?

Haha. You're comeback is outstanding. I am going to go hide in the corner. It isn't every year you can go to state. Especially when you graduate 11 contributing seniors and two high end D1 prospects. You have your fun at the X. My dislike for Edina is thanks to people like you.

O-townClown wrote:

boblee wrote:
It's a double based percentage. I found it online somewhere last year. It is actually reciprocal double based percentage.

Example

Edina is a 1 seed and Holy Angels is a 4 seed.

You reverse it and Edina has a 4/5 chance (or 80 percent chance) of winning. Instead of having it be 8/10, it is 16/20. Then a 20-sided dice is rolled. 1-16 Edina wins, 17-20 Holy Angels wins. Since anything can happen in a given game (see any upsets ever) I only have the 20 sided dice rolled once per game.

Gotcha. It is wholly reliant on the seeding then. The problem - obviously - is that is can be seriously out of whack. Roseau did not have an 80% chance of winning their semi and they did not have a 67% chance of winning the final over Moorhead.

Other times we saw a 1/3 game that was pretty even on paper, like with Blaine & Centennial.

Thanks for the explanation. I was hoping you had something like the likelihood of a win by the difference in PS2 rating (not ranking). For example, 21.19 - 19.74 is 1.45 and the favorite wins ___% of the time when this occurs. Nothing wrong with your approach, but it is crude by comparison.

1-2 Roseau/Moorhead definitely does not equal 1-2 Benilde/'Tonka.

I understand completely and I know that method would be more effective. I do it more for a what it would look like approach rather than actualistic results. I wouldn't mind if someone took the seedings I have presented and used something like that on it.

boblee wrote:

DadsMoney wrote:

boblee wrote: Hey, aren't you the guy that continually told me Grand Rapids couldn't beat Edina last year at state?

Hey, aren't you the guy who's team isn't playing at the x this year?

Haha. You're comeback is outstanding. I am going to go hide in the corner. It isn't every year you can go to state. Especially when you graduate 11 contributing seniors and two high end D1 prospects. You have your fun at the X. My dislike for Edina is thanks to people like you.

how was GR unseeded last year? injury problems in the regular season? I seem to remember them playing edina in the holiday classic w/o white. how long was he out?

DadsMoney wrote:

boblee wrote:

DadsMoney wrote: Hey, aren't you the guy who's team isn't playing at the x this year?

Haha. You're comeback is outstanding. I am going to go hide in the corner. It isn't every year you can go to state. Especially when you graduate 11 contributing seniors and two high end D1 prospects. You have your fun at the X. My dislike for Edina is thanks to people like you.

how was GR unseeded last year? injury problems in the regular season? I seem to remember them playing edina in the holiday classic w/o white. how long was he out?

White missed seven games last year, but I am not sure where you're going with this. They lost 7 times and tied 4 times last year. That is 11 games they didn't win. That is why they weren't seeded.