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As we get into January and teams start playing more conference games, I notice some teams in very weak conferences are going up in some people's estimations. Other teams with stronger hockey conferences have their strength questioned.

My own opinion would be that the stronger the conference, the better chance of making the state tourney. But I would also suspect that some teams are so beat up or weary after a tough conference schedule that they don't have much left for sections. Is the best situation to have 3-4 conference teams that can push a team and 3-4 that are perrenial bottom feeders so a team can take a night off now and then? Thoughts?

I think it is the most beneficial to play as many tough teams as possible.
Even if it means getting your butt handed to you now and then you will gain the most by playing against the best.
Just my opinion.

Well as far as 5aa goes, it is almost all NWSC so it is really not much different for the teams because they are playing those teams the whole year already.

Hill Murray and St. Thomas both won state last year and played in what you guys consider a very weak conference. I dont really think conference has much bearing on what happens. What matters is what you do with non conference games and if you schedule teams like Edina, HM, WBL, BJ...

The past 10 years: record, winning %, highest finish

Big Nine 3-9, .250, 3rd
Classic Lake 8-7, .533, 2nd
Classic Suburban 7-13, .350, 1st once
Iron Range 6-3, .667, 2nd
Lake 8-27, .229, 4th
Mariucci 17-12, .586, 1st twice
NW Suburban 21-12, .636, 1st 4 times
Suburban East 20-13, .606, 1st once

I only used AA schools and conferences that have had more than 1 representivie in the past 10 years.

others:
Missota/Holy Angels 11-4, .733, 1st twice
Lake minus Lakeville 7-17, .292, 4th
Lake Superior/Cloquet 0-4, .000, 7th
Independant/Duluth East 6-5, .545, 2nd

goldy313 wrote:The past 10 years: record, winning %, highest finish

Big Nine 3-9, .250, 3rd
Classic Lake 8-7, .533, 2nd
Classic Suburban 7-13, .350, 1st once
Iron Range 6-3, .667, 2nd
Lake 8-27, .229, 4th
Mariucci 17-12, .586, 1st twice
NW Suburban 21-12, .636, 1st 4 times
Suburban East 20-13, .606, 1st once

I only used AA schools and conferences that have had more than 1 representivie in the past 10 years.

others:
Missota/Holy Angels 11-4, .733, 1st twice
Lake minus Lakeville 7-17, .292, 4th
Lake Superior/Cloquet 0-4, .000, 7th
Independant/Duluth East 6-5, .545, 2nd

Wow the NWSC has dominated the tournament in the last 10 years. It shows that schedule strength does help come tourney time because this is one of the stronger conferences year in and year out.

goldy313 wrote:The past 10 years: record, winning %, highest finish

Big Nine 3-9, .250, 3rd
Classic Lake 8-7, .533, 2nd
Classic Suburban 7-13, .350, 1st once
Iron Range 6-3, .667, 2nd
Lake 8-27, .229, 4th
Mariucci 17-12, .586, 1st twice
NW Suburban 21-12, .636, 1st 4 times
Suburban East 20-13, .606, 1st once

I only used AA schools and conferences that have had more than 1 representivie in the past 10 years.

others:
Missota/Holy Angels 11-4, .733, 1st twice
Lake minus Lakeville 7-17, .292, 4th
Lake Superior/Cloquet 0-4, .000, 7th
Independant/Duluth East 6-5, .545, 2nd

Very interesting numbers.

One thing I'd note about the NWSC is that most of the teams are in the same section, which probably can only help. This weeds out the weaker teams who might slip into the tourney in a weaker section. Case in point: the Lake, which has sent Lakeville teams from the middle of its pack to the tourney many times over the past few years. That's probably a big part of why it looks so bad on paper.

karl(east) wrote:

goldy313 wrote:The past 10 years: record, winning %, highest finish

Big Nine 3-9, .250, 3rd
Classic Lake 8-7, .533, 2nd
Classic Suburban 7-13, .350, 1st once
Iron Range 6-3, .667, 2nd
Lake 8-27, .229, 4th
Mariucci 17-12, .586, 1st twice
NW Suburban 21-12, .636, 1st 4 times
Suburban East 20-13, .606, 1st once

I only used AA schools and conferences that have had more than 1 representivie in the past 10 years.

others:
Missota/Holy Angels 11-4, .733, 1st twice
Lake minus Lakeville 7-17, .292, 4th
Lake Superior/Cloquet 0-4, .000, 7th
Independant/Duluth East 6-5, .545, 2nd

Very interesting numbers.

One thing I'd note about the NWSC is that most of the teams are in the same section, which probably can only help. This weeds out the weaker teams who might slip into the tourney in a weaker section. Case in point: the Lake, which has sent Lakeville teams from the middle of its pack to the tourney many times over the past few years. That's probably a big part of why it looks so bad on paper.

While having most of the teams in your conference in the same section will help your Win% in STATE because only your strongest team will make it, it makes it harder to win more titles because the less teams you have in the Tourney the less likely your conference is to win a title. That is why it is surprising the NWSC has 4 of the last 10 state champions.


P.S. Centennials State Championship was technically when they were in the North Suburban.

pucker52 wrote:As we get into January and teams start playing more conference games, I notice some teams in very weak conferences are going up in some people's estimations. Other teams with stronger hockey conferences have their strength questioned.

My own opinion would be that the stronger the conference, the better chance of making the state tourney. But I would also suspect that some teams are so beat up or weary after a tough conference schedule that they don't have much left for sections. Is the best situation to have 3-4 conference teams that can push a team and 3-4 that are perrenial bottom feeders so a team can take a night off now and then? Thoughts?

To play as many tough games as possible is best. This is hockey and hockey is a tough game. Remember a few years ago when East Grand Forks was scantly above .500 entering state and they whent to the championship??? That happened because they spent all year playing the tough teams up there. Whatever doesn't kill you makes you stronger. Tougher teams every night means a team is used to playing tough every night, not taking a game off now and then. Are there any breaks in the post season??? especially at state???

karl(east) wrote: Very interesting numbers.

One thing I'd note about the NWSC is that most of the teams are in the same section, which probably can only help. This weeds out the weaker teams who might slip into the tourney in a weaker section. Case in point: the Lake, which has sent Lakeville teams from the middle of its pack to the tourney many times over the past few years. That's probably a big part of why it looks so bad on paper.

I thought that too, however Lakeville only brought down the Lake .063%, not really that much and the Lake minus Lakeville still only had a better record than the Big Nine. A less than 10% deviation shows Lakeville didn't really hurt the ake that much.

NWSC seems to dominate to me.

King of the Pond wrote:

karl(east) wrote:

goldy313 wrote:The past 10 years: record, winning %, highest finish

Big Nine 3-9, .250, 3rd
Classic Lake 8-7, .533, 2nd
Classic Suburban 7-13, .350, 1st once
Iron Range 6-3, .667, 2nd
Lake 8-27, .229, 4th
Mariucci 17-12, .586, 1st twice
NW Suburban 21-12, .636, 1st 4 times
Suburban East 20-13, .606, 1st once

I only used AA schools and conferences that have had more than 1 representivie in the past 10 years.

others:
Missota/Holy Angels 11-4, .733, 1st twice
Lake minus Lakeville 7-17, .292, 4th
Lake Superior/Cloquet 0-4, .000, 7th
Independant/Duluth East 6-5, .545, 2nd

Very interesting numbers.

One thing I'd note about the NWSC is that most of the teams are in the same section, which probably can only help. This weeds out the weaker teams who might slip into the tourney in a weaker section. Case in point: the Lake, which has sent Lakeville teams from the middle of its pack to the tourney many times over the past few years. That's probably a big part of why it looks so bad on paper.

While having most of the teams in your conference in the same section will help your Win% in STATE because only your strongest team will make it, it makes it harder to win more titles because the less teams you have in the Tourney the less likely your conference is to win a title. That is why it is surprising the NWSC has 4 of the last 10 state champions.


P.S. Centennials State Championship was technically when they were in the North Suburban.

i am not saying your wrong but are you positive on that i thought that was the year the moved into the NWSC

I think the fear of being worn down by the end of the year shouldn't matter. The better the schedule, the better your odds are making it through sections. Playing weak team can create laziness and cockiness. Playoff time gets everyone ready to go, no one should be worn down. I think last years teams just happened to both be from a relatively weak conference but they do play solid non conference games.