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Well, despite the lack of top-15 games this week, there are sure a few notable shake-ups. Here we go:

1. Bloomington Jefferson
-Now the only team left with less than 2 losses/ties. Whatever the schedule may be, they're alone on top right now.
This week: Tues vs. Bloomington Kennedy, Sat at Lakeville South
2. Edina
-It was the perfect setting for an upset: coming off a big win against Wayzata, with a huge contest against Centennial looming, and a team with a talented goalie in between. Huge props to Hopkins for pulling off the upset and knocking off the Hornets.
I justify keeping them at #2 by noting that they beat my #3 by 4 goals earlier this year. Tuesday should resolve any dispute on that front, though.
This week: Tues vs. #4 Centennial, Sat vs. Robbinsdale Armstrong
3. Blaine
-Are in the soft part of their NWSC schedule and are preparing for some bigger meetings in late February. On cruise control for now. Again, #3 vs. #4 is essentially a wash, and the same reasoning as last week applies for nudging Blaine ahead.
This week: Thurs at Osseo, Sat at Anoka
4. Centennial
-Had a placid week in preparation for the huge game this Tuesday. Busy week for the Cougars.
This week: Tues at #2 Edina, Thurs at Coon Rapids, Sat at Moorhead
5. Eden Prairie
-Sailing along through the Lake in preparation for the second meeting with Jefferson.
This week: Tues vs. Eastview, Sat at Chaska
--note-- There's a bit of a drop here, and I see 6-10 as a roughly dead-even mess of 3 section 6 teams, one struggling team, and another that I just can't pin down. Here they are:
6. Minnetonka
-The Skippers win my roll of the dice for #6. I justify it by noting that they're very hot right now, and that 7-0 win over Hopkins has taken on an increased magnitude. Big game on Thursday in 6AA.
This week: Thurs vs. #10 Wayzata
7. Benilde-St. Margaret's
-Another team that has been playing very well lately. A relatively easy schedule for them down the stretch, with only two games I'd peg as being loseable.
This week: Tues at Irondale, Thurs vs. Shattuck-St. Mary's
8. Holy Angels
-I'm still not quite sure what to make of this team, since it's hard to figure how much weight should be given to their wins over out-of-state powers. I figure this is about right for now, and perhaps this week will help.
This week: Mon at Elk River, Fri vs. Prior Lake, Sat vs. Shattuck-St. Mary's
9. Duluth East
-Have the talent to contend for a state title, but state title contenders do not lose to Rochester Century. Have not looked very good all month and need to sort themselves out quickly to stay on the map. Very important week within the section ahead.
This week: Tues vs. Forest Lake, Wed vs. Grand Rapids, Sat at Andover
10. Wayzata
-Another good team that came up with an odd loss this week, this one at the hands of Burnsville. Didn't play Edina well either. Need to recover quickly with some huge section games looming.
This week: Thurs at #6 Minnetonka, Sat vs Hopkins
11. Woodbury
-Are lucky there was such a huge gap between them and #12, so they hold on to this spot. What is it with them and Forest Lake?
This week: Thurs vs. #15 Stillwater, Sat at Hastings
12. Hill-Murray
-No real tests last week to tell whether they really belong here. No games left vs. top-15s, though there are some good A teams on the schedule (beginning with SSP this week), along with a key section matchup against Tartan and what could be a good one against Moorhead.
This week: Thurs vs. South St. Paul, Sat vs. Simley
13. Maple Grove
-Still hovering along awkwardly on the outside of the 5AA picture. Important game on Saturday.
This week: Thurs at Champlin Park, Sat vs. Elk River
14. White Bear Lake
-I know, I know. But I went back and looked at the body of the Bears' work, and frankly, it is better than anything anyone else has to offer, and I am willing to defend that should anyone challenge it. It won't be easy, but they've got a very real shot at the State Tourney.
This week: Thurs at Park, Sat vs. Mounds View
15. Stillwater
-Despite the win over WBL, the Roseville loss shows they still have some work to do to move up in the rankings. Inconsistent.
This week: Thurs at #11 Woodbury, Sat at Forest Lake
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Also of note:
Elk River. I had them ranked last week, but dropped them in favor of WBL after looking at things again. I still have them in at #16, with some big games coming up. Have an odd schedule in which they either play teams that are a lot better than them, or much worse.
Hopkins. Welcome to the state scene, Hopkins. The Edina upset reminds us they could be a serious thorn in the side of anyone trying to get out of 6AA. At this point they have a few too many ugly losses to move into the top 15. The schedule is there for them to do it, though.
Moorhead. Have restored some order with the upset of Warroad. Huge week ahead for them, with Roseau on Tuesday and Centennial on Saturday.
Tartan. They had a good loss to STA, if you can call it that. Will likely be a problematic team come sections, even if they don't win the thing.
Roseville. Overall body of work is pretty bad, but they've beaten Stillwater (twice!) and WBL, so have to be considered a factor in the section.
Burnsville. Seem to have made progress since the early season struggles, but still not in the picture yet.
Next, I'd add a jumble of Lake teams that can't seem to sort themselves out, including Eastview, Eagan, and then Apple Valley, followed by Lakeville South.

Now, as requested, a section-by section look.
1AA
No ranked teams.
In the picture: Lakeville South and North, Rochester Mayo and Century, maybe Owatonna. Not much to be said here; it's the usual mess of teams not expected to do anything at State.
2AA
1-Jefferson
2-Edina
8-Holy Angels
Also semi-in-the-picture-but-not-really: Burnsville. It's loaded at the top, and Holy Angels is hovering there for whoever gets the 2 seed. Section final could be the best game of the year.
3AA
11-Woodbury
Also in the picture: Cretin, Eastview, Eagan. Not all that great a section.
4AA
12-Hill
14-WBL
15-Stillwater
Also in the picture: Tartan, Roseville. Probably the biggest mess, with 5 potential winners, though at least they're all better than what might come out of section 1.
5AA
3-Blaine
4-Centennial
13-Maple Grove
No other real contenders. All 3 play each other again during the regular season, so it should be very fun to watch.
6AA
5-EP
6-Minnetonka
7-Benilde
10-Wayzata
Also in the picture: Hopkins. Definitely the most loaded section, but there is some separation between EP and the rest of the pack.
7AA
9-Duluth East
Also in the picture: Elk River, maybe Grand Rapids. Despite the recent struggles, this is still East's to lose.
8AA
No ranked teams.
In the picture: First Moorhead, then Roseau, maybe Buffalo, Brainerd, and St. Cloud Tech. Will be easier to figure out after Tuesday.

Nice summary karl-out-east.

Thank you for ranking Minnetonka at the upper end of your #6-10 pile. I believe that they can beat Eden Prairie, and/or Wayzata and/or BSM and/or Hopkins to be the 6AA rep at state. Of course, the way that Hopkins tied up the Edina shooters today, and Fons's outstanding play, they have a chance equal to the other four schools. 6AA appears to be the toughest district this year, not 2AA.

I agree with ranking Jefferson over Edina for now, but come district tourney time, I think that Edina will go through.

I like Lakeville North in 1AA only because they have two freshmen that we're tracking!

karl(east) wrote:11. Woodbury
-Are lucky there was such a huge gap between them and #12, so they hold on to this spot. What is it with them and Forest Lake?
This week: Thurs vs. #15 Stillwater, Sat at Hastings

The answer - Moberg in goal for Forest Lake.

OH YEA! Another good Sunday morning. Fresh coffee with fresh rankings! Thanks again karl(east)! I really do sleep in late in Sunday's.

karl,
benilde plays shattuck on thursday at home

ovechkin4president wrote:karl,
benilde plays shattuck on thursday at home

OK, thank you. I figured there might have been somebody, since they wouldn't have a full slate of games otherwise (Meadow Creek Christian doesn't count towards the total number allowed). I'll fix that.

2 good matchups between Shattuck and top MN privates this week.

1. Bloomington Jefferson 16-0
2. Edina 15-2
3. Eden Prairie 13-3
4. Blaine 15-1-1
5. Centennial 12-1-2
6. Duluth East 12-3-1
7. Wayzata 11-5-1
8. Benilde-St. Margaret’s 13-3
9. Minnetonka 13-5
10. Academy of Holy Angels 11-3-1
11. Woodbury 14-2-2
12. Maple Grove 13-2-2
13. Hill-Murray 11-5-1
14. Burnsville 8-9
15. White Bear Lake 9-8-1
ORV: Cretin-Derham Hall, Eagan, Apple Valley, Hopkins, Elk River.

Another great job with the rankings! I don't agree that Minnetonka will be rated higher then Benilde in 6AA. They have more losses then Benilde and couldn't beat them when they had their chance. I think that Minnetonka, BSM and Wayzata are playing to not be the 4th seed which will probably be playing Hopkins in round one of the section. That all said, this section is going to be a barn burner with five teams having a shot at the title.

puck81 wrote:Another great job with the rankings! I don't agree that Minnetonka will be rated higher then Benilde in 6AA. They have more losses then Benilde and couldn't beat them when they had their chance. I think that Minnetonka, BSM and Wayzata are playing to not be the 4th seed which will probably be playing Hopkins in round one of the section. That all said, this section is going to be a barn burner with five teams having a shot at the title.

I should qualify quickly...I don't think my method is how the section seedings would be determined if it were done today. Head-to-head and section records matter a lot more. If I had to give 6AA seedings today:

1. EP (beat Tonnka)
2. Wayzata (beat BSM)
3. BSM (beat Tonka, lost to Wayzata)
4. Minnetonka (lost to EP, BSM)
5. Hopkins

I feel Minnetonka's work against other sections (plus the Hopkins win) is much more impressive, though, so that's why they're a tiny bit ahead. But like I said, 6-10 is pretty much a crapshoot anyways.

karl(east) wrote:

puck81 wrote:Another great job with the rankings! I don't agree that Minnetonka will be rated higher then Benilde in 6AA. They have more losses then Benilde and couldn't beat them when they had their chance. I think that Minnetonka, BSM and Wayzata are playing to not be the 4th seed which will probably be playing Hopkins in round one of the section. That all said, this section is going to be a barn burner with five teams having a shot at the title.

I should qualify quickly...I don't think my method is how the section seedings would be determined if it were done today. Head-to-head and section records matter a lot more. If I had to give 6AA seedings today:

1. EP (beat Tonnka)
2. Wayzata (beat BSM)
3. BSM (beat Tonka, lost to Wayzata)
4. Minnetonka (lost to EP, BSM)
5. Hopkins

I feel Minnetonka's work against other sections (plus the Hopkins win) is much more impressive, though, so that's why they're a tiny bit ahead. But like I said, 6-10 is pretty much a crapshoot anyways.

Well said. I look forward to your rankings each week.

great job with the rankings and all karl!!

puck81
"Another great job with the rankings! I don't agree that Minnetonka will be rated higher then Benilde in 6AA. They have more losses then Benilde and couldn't beat them when they had their chance. I think that Minnetonka, BSM and Wayzata are playing to not be the 4th seed which will probably be playing Hopkins in round one of the section. That all said, this section is going to be a barn burner with five teams having a shot at the title."
- I would have to agree that minnetonka did not take advantage when they had the chance to play bsm, and bsm outplayed them. but looking at who has more losses is not very pertinent, if you look at the schedules mtkas is much more difficult and their losses are to top end teams. agreed that its going to be a battle for 6aa

puck81 wrote:

karl(east) wrote:

puck81 wrote:Another great job with the rankings! I don't agree that Minnetonka will be rated higher then Benilde in 6AA. They have more losses then Benilde and couldn't beat them when they had their chance. I think that Minnetonka, BSM and Wayzata are playing to not be the 4th seed which will probably be playing Hopkins in round one of the section. That all said, this section is going to be a barn burner with five teams having a shot at the title.

I should qualify quickly...I don't think my method is how the section seedings would be determined if it were done today. Head-to-head and section records matter a lot more. If I had to give 6AA seedings today:

1. EP (beat Tonnka)
2. Wayzata (beat BSM)
3. BSM (beat Tonka, lost to Wayzata)
4. Minnetonka (lost to EP, BSM)
5. Hopkins

I feel Minnetonka's work against other sections (plus the Hopkins win) is much more impressive, though, so that's why they're a tiny bit ahead. But like I said, 6-10 is pretty much a crapshoot anyways.

Well said. I look forward to your rankings each week.

Based on schedule and the total picture (not a 4-3W by BSM) I agree with Karl that Minnetonka should get the edge now. However, I do think many of these 6AA questions will get better answered one way or the other when Wayzata and Minnetonka square off twice in the next few weeks...

Minnetonka may not be able to overcome the BSM and EP losses to get higher than the 3 seed. However, when it comes to playing the games they might be seen as a favorite if you consider they started the year with only 4 seniors and I believe that only 2 of them see significant playing time. Given their record their first 8 games vs the past 10 I think it shows that as they've gained experienced they've also grown as a squad. However, that youth could become a weakness and work against them in sections where the pressure mounts. Sad thing is both 6AA semis on paper could be worthy of the state tournament.