Rankings for 2/1
Posted: Sat Jan 31, 2009 11:27 pm
February is upon us, and we're moving into the last few weeks of regular season play. It was an odd week in HS hockey, to say the least. Here are my top 15.
The numbers after each team are their record against a group of roughly 25 top AA teams, plus a few other high-quality opponents (STA, Fargo South, Shattuck, other prep schools). These are by no means the method by which I am ranking them, I just decided to throw the numbers in there. The number in parenthesis following this record is the number of losses or ties to all teams not included in that group.
Incidentally, despite some significant rough performances, I did the top 5 from scratch and ended up with the same results as last week...go figure. I guess I knew what I was doing.
1. Bloomington Jefferson 6-0
-They didn't have a particularly great week, but neither did the teams immediately behind them. Their hold on my #1 spot is a lot more tenuous than their record makes it look. 3 home games this week against teams that, while not word-class competition, are capable of an upset if enough things go right.
This week: Tues vs. Apple Valley, Thurs vs. Eagan, Sat vs. Moorhead
2. Edina 12-2 (1)
-The loss to Centennial has led to a number of questions about this team, which have been discussed at length elsewhere along here. Again, their hold on this spot is not that strong. Huge week ahead that will make or break their Classic Lake season and seriously test their resilience.
This week: Thurs at #6 Minnetonka, Sat vs. #10 Wayzata
3. Blaine 4-1-1
-Easily the hottest of the top 4 right now. I was sorely tempted to rank them higher, but that 8-4 loss to Edina still stands out like a sore thumb.
This week: Thurs at Champlin Park, Sat vs. #15 Elk River
4. Centennial 6-1-2 (1)
-I was just about ready to name them #1 after the big win over Edina, then they went out and tied Moorhead. The Cougars did prove themselves a legitimate contender for the state championship this week, but the letdown leaves question marks.
This week: Thurs at Anoka, Sat vs. #13 Maple Grove
5. Eden Prairie 6-3
-Have been continuing their methodical march through the Lake. Some intriguing matchups on the docket this week as they face two teams which have both notched notable upsets in recent weeks.
This week: Tues at Lakeville North, Thurs at Hopkins, Sat at Burnsville
6. Minnetonka 5-5
-One of the hottest teams in the state of late. That all goes on the line on Tuesday, when we'll see if they're truly a title contender as they go up against an Edina team that has looked increasingly vulnerable.
This week: Thurs vs. #2 Edina, Sat at Hopkins
7. Duluth East 6-1-1 (2)
-Should really be ahead of Tonka by virtue of their win over them earlier this season, but they're still serving their sentence for the Century loss in my book. Marched through some 7AA competition this week and looked a bit better than they have been at times recently.
This week: Tues vs. Superior (WI), Sat at Apple Valley
8. Benilde-St. Margaret's 5-4
-Gave Shattuck a good run, all things considered. Most of their remaining games are cupcakes against the North Suburban, with AHA being the notable exception.
This week: Tues at Osseo, Thurs at St. Louis Park, Sat at Chisago Lakes
9. Holy Angels 5-4-1
-Did not stick with Shattuck at all. While I can't really penalize them too much for that, the fact remains that this team still doesn't really have a major victory against Minnesota competiton, which you can't say for anyone else in the top 10.
This week: Tues vs. New Prague, Fri at Red Wing, Sat vs. Shakopee
10. Wayzata 6-5-1 (1)
-Played Tonka very well but came out on the short end this past week. Recovered well by beating Hopkins an snapping a 3-game skid. Have all week to rest up for their 3rd shot at Edina this year.
This week: Sat at #2 Edina
11. Woodbury 6-1 (3)
-Followed up a quality win over Stillwater with an ugly one against Hastings. Still not really showing that they're in the same tier as the teams above them.
12. Hill-Murray 4-5 (1)
-The SSP win was definitely a step in the right direction in the effort to recover the season. Two huge games against single-A teams this week.
This week: Tues at Mahtomedi, Sat at St. Thomas
13. Maple Grove 1-2-2
-Tie against Elk River was a step in the wrong direction, but I'll let them keep this spot for now. Get their second shot at Centennial this week; we'll see how they deal with them now that they've got Pitlick back.
This week: Thurs at North Metro, Sat at #4 Centennial
14. White Bear Lake 2-6-1 (2)
-Playing much better lately, for what it's worth. Still not near the level of the top 10, but things are lining up for a good run through sections. Revenge against Stillwater is a must for legitimacy.
This week: Thurs at Stillwater, Sat vs. Hastings
15. Elk River 0-7-1
-Had a good week, playing AHA well and tying Maple Grove. Very important week, with a major game in the 7AA seeding process followed by a serious test.
This week: Thurs at Andover, Sat at Blaine
---
On the outside looking in:
-Hopkins. They played Wayzata well enough to move onto the very cusp on the rankings, though they still look like they'll have serious trouble cracking the 6AA tournament. Can continue to up their stock in the Classic Lake.
-Moorhead. Two big wins and a tie mean the streakiest team in the state is back on the edge of consideration. That stretch of awful losses is quite the puzzle. How much better are they right now? We'll find out this week against Jefferson.
-Stillwater. They've tailed off quite a bit recently and are therefore no longer in the immediate picture. Have a chance to restore order this week vs. WBL.
---
Beyond that:
-Roseau, though still pretty distant from the picture, at least asserted some northern dominance of 8AA this week.
-The mediocre muddle of Lake teams have done nothing to separate themselves, with Eastview going down to previously winless Rosemount and Burnsville failing to quite break through against Apple Valley, a game that ended in a tie.
-In the 4AA chase pack, Roseville took a step backwards with a loss to Mounds View, while Tartan continues to assert itself as a possible contender, albeit against weaker competition. They have a telling week ahead of themselves, facing SSP and Stillwater.
Enjoy the week. As always, I welcome healthy discussion.
The numbers after each team are their record against a group of roughly 25 top AA teams, plus a few other high-quality opponents (STA, Fargo South, Shattuck, other prep schools). These are by no means the method by which I am ranking them, I just decided to throw the numbers in there. The number in parenthesis following this record is the number of losses or ties to all teams not included in that group.
Incidentally, despite some significant rough performances, I did the top 5 from scratch and ended up with the same results as last week...go figure. I guess I knew what I was doing.
1. Bloomington Jefferson 6-0
-They didn't have a particularly great week, but neither did the teams immediately behind them. Their hold on my #1 spot is a lot more tenuous than their record makes it look. 3 home games this week against teams that, while not word-class competition, are capable of an upset if enough things go right.
This week: Tues vs. Apple Valley, Thurs vs. Eagan, Sat vs. Moorhead
2. Edina 12-2 (1)
-The loss to Centennial has led to a number of questions about this team, which have been discussed at length elsewhere along here. Again, their hold on this spot is not that strong. Huge week ahead that will make or break their Classic Lake season and seriously test their resilience.
This week: Thurs at #6 Minnetonka, Sat vs. #10 Wayzata
3. Blaine 4-1-1
-Easily the hottest of the top 4 right now. I was sorely tempted to rank them higher, but that 8-4 loss to Edina still stands out like a sore thumb.
This week: Thurs at Champlin Park, Sat vs. #15 Elk River
4. Centennial 6-1-2 (1)
-I was just about ready to name them #1 after the big win over Edina, then they went out and tied Moorhead. The Cougars did prove themselves a legitimate contender for the state championship this week, but the letdown leaves question marks.
This week: Thurs at Anoka, Sat vs. #13 Maple Grove
5. Eden Prairie 6-3
-Have been continuing their methodical march through the Lake. Some intriguing matchups on the docket this week as they face two teams which have both notched notable upsets in recent weeks.
This week: Tues at Lakeville North, Thurs at Hopkins, Sat at Burnsville
6. Minnetonka 5-5
-One of the hottest teams in the state of late. That all goes on the line on Tuesday, when we'll see if they're truly a title contender as they go up against an Edina team that has looked increasingly vulnerable.
This week: Thurs vs. #2 Edina, Sat at Hopkins
7. Duluth East 6-1-1 (2)
-Should really be ahead of Tonka by virtue of their win over them earlier this season, but they're still serving their sentence for the Century loss in my book. Marched through some 7AA competition this week and looked a bit better than they have been at times recently.
This week: Tues vs. Superior (WI), Sat at Apple Valley
8. Benilde-St. Margaret's 5-4
-Gave Shattuck a good run, all things considered. Most of their remaining games are cupcakes against the North Suburban, with AHA being the notable exception.
This week: Tues at Osseo, Thurs at St. Louis Park, Sat at Chisago Lakes
9. Holy Angels 5-4-1
-Did not stick with Shattuck at all. While I can't really penalize them too much for that, the fact remains that this team still doesn't really have a major victory against Minnesota competiton, which you can't say for anyone else in the top 10.
This week: Tues vs. New Prague, Fri at Red Wing, Sat vs. Shakopee
10. Wayzata 6-5-1 (1)
-Played Tonka very well but came out on the short end this past week. Recovered well by beating Hopkins an snapping a 3-game skid. Have all week to rest up for their 3rd shot at Edina this year.
This week: Sat at #2 Edina
11. Woodbury 6-1 (3)
-Followed up a quality win over Stillwater with an ugly one against Hastings. Still not really showing that they're in the same tier as the teams above them.
12. Hill-Murray 4-5 (1)
-The SSP win was definitely a step in the right direction in the effort to recover the season. Two huge games against single-A teams this week.
This week: Tues at Mahtomedi, Sat at St. Thomas
13. Maple Grove 1-2-2
-Tie against Elk River was a step in the wrong direction, but I'll let them keep this spot for now. Get their second shot at Centennial this week; we'll see how they deal with them now that they've got Pitlick back.
This week: Thurs at North Metro, Sat at #4 Centennial
14. White Bear Lake 2-6-1 (2)
-Playing much better lately, for what it's worth. Still not near the level of the top 10, but things are lining up for a good run through sections. Revenge against Stillwater is a must for legitimacy.
This week: Thurs at Stillwater, Sat vs. Hastings
15. Elk River 0-7-1
-Had a good week, playing AHA well and tying Maple Grove. Very important week, with a major game in the 7AA seeding process followed by a serious test.
This week: Thurs at Andover, Sat at Blaine
---
On the outside looking in:
-Hopkins. They played Wayzata well enough to move onto the very cusp on the rankings, though they still look like they'll have serious trouble cracking the 6AA tournament. Can continue to up their stock in the Classic Lake.
-Moorhead. Two big wins and a tie mean the streakiest team in the state is back on the edge of consideration. That stretch of awful losses is quite the puzzle. How much better are they right now? We'll find out this week against Jefferson.
-Stillwater. They've tailed off quite a bit recently and are therefore no longer in the immediate picture. Have a chance to restore order this week vs. WBL.
---
Beyond that:
-Roseau, though still pretty distant from the picture, at least asserted some northern dominance of 8AA this week.
-The mediocre muddle of Lake teams have done nothing to separate themselves, with Eastview going down to previously winless Rosemount and Burnsville failing to quite break through against Apple Valley, a game that ended in a tie.
-In the 4AA chase pack, Roseville took a step backwards with a loss to Mounds View, while Tartan continues to assert itself as a possible contender, albeit against weaker competition. They have a telling week ahead of themselves, facing SSP and Stillwater.
Enjoy the week. As always, I welcome healthy discussion.
