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AA End of Regular Season Rankings (2/22)

Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 1:05 am
by karl(east)
The Edina-Minnetonka game tonight was a great warm-up for the greatest three weeks in high school sports, which are about to get under way.

In fact, there were 3 play-ins tonight; congrats to Princeton, Anoka, and River Lakes, in what will probably be the only mention ever for any of these teams in these rankings.

I decided to go overboard this week; it's playoff time, and the bracket's quite a bit more fun to fill out with more matchups to ranked teams.

So, here are the pre-playoff top 25. After the team name are each team's section and seed (I will add the seeds and opponents as they come in). Disclaimer: A difference between the seedings and the rankings does not necessarily mean I think the coaches got things wrong; they're using different criteria than I am. For the abbreviations, QF=quarterfinal, SF=semifinal. I am assuming each team is winning its first game in the schedule part; this will probably not happen in every case, but I figured this was the best way to do it.

1. Edina (#2,2AA)
-A dramatic win over Minnetonka keeps them in the top spot. It hasn't always been easy, but they've been proving themselves from start to finish and are worthy of the top spot. Not the sort of team you want to deal with late in close games, as they've been through this before and know what they're doing. Seeding may be key.
This week: QF Thurs vs. Prior Lake, SF Sat vs. #7 Holy Angels/Bloomington Kennedy (BIG)

2. Eden Prairie (#1,6AA)
-Finished off their Lake season with ease. That ease will come to an end this week, when they enter the brutal 6AA bracket. Did an excellent job all season of avoiding playing down to their competition, with the only 3 losses coming to others in the top 3.
This week: QF Thurs vs. Minneapolis East or West, SF Sat vs. #8 Benilde/#12 Hopkins(Braemar/BIG)

3. Bloomington Jefferson (#1,2AA)
-Like EP, rounded out their Lake schedule without much fanfare, and now will have to beat two good to great teams to make it back to the promised land. Time to put that one-loss record on the line and see how good they really are.
This week: QF Thurs vs. Shakopee, SF Sat vs. #17 Burnsville/Chaska(Braemar)

4. Blaine (#1,5AA)
-Unlike their competition in the NWSC, they rounded out the season on a high note. Despite the 2 late-season losses, I am giving them the bump over East for their win against the Hounds earlier this year. Time will show us if they deserve this or not.
This week: QF Sat vs. Irondale (Champlin Park)

5. Duluth East (#1,7AA)
-Looked very strong closing out the season and now launch into the playoffs as the team with easiest route to state on paper. They have a lot of demons to exorcise from the last 3 years in the 7AA playoffs, though.
This week: QF vs. Princeton Tues, SF vs. Andover/Forest Lake Sat (DECC)

6. Minnetonka (#2,6AA)
-Showed just how good they were with their first two periods against Edina, though the fade at the end had to be discouraging. Still a very, very dangerous team with a very strong defense. Have to win the close ones, though, which has been a struggle at times this year.
This week: QF Thurs vs. Robbinsdale Cooper, SF Sat vs. #9 Wayzata/Robbinsdale Armstrong (BIG/Braemar)

7. Holy Angels (#3,2AA)
-Secured their 9th 20-win season of the decade with little fanfare, and now get to look ahead as a team with a serious shot to play spoiler in 2AA. They could easily ruin the dream Edina-Jefferson final and do have enough talent to get by both if enough things go right, though it won't be easy. Trying to erase the some less-than-memorable runs through sections in recent years from their minds.
This week: QF Thurs vs. Bloomington Kennedy, SF Sat vs. #1 Edina/Prior Lake (BIG/Braemar)

8. Benilde-St. Margaret's (#4,6AA)
-A week after I wrote them off a bit, here they are again. They also quietly had a very good year, and it would be a bad idea to look past the defending 6AA champs. Solid goalie play could help them through sections. Have to beat 3 top-15 teams to get through, though.
This week: QF Thurs vs. #12 Hopkins, SF Sat vs. #2 Eden Prairie/Minneapolis East or West (BIG/Braemar)

9. Wayzata (#3,6AA)
-Yikes, there are way too many teams from one section up here. They're on a somewhat lower tier than the top teams, but they have beaten Benilde this year and are dangerous when they're on. There's a very good chance that they'll be the first top-10 team to lose.
This week: QF Thurs vs. Robbinsdale Armstrong, SF Sat vs. #6 Minnetonka/Robbinsdale Cooper (BIG/Braemar)

10. Maple Grove (#2,5AA)
-Did not stick with Blaine very well, but unlike Centennial they at least have beaten the teams they should have down the stretch. No matter what happens, this year has been a big step forward for this program. Seeding may be key to their chances for success.
This week: QF Sat vs. Coon Rapids (Champlin Park)

11. Centennial (#3,5AA)
-After the way their season ended, I feel this is generous. An ugly tie and loss to round out the NWSC schedule are very bad signs going into sections. They're still up here because we know there's a lot of talent on this team, and if they turn things on again, they can beat anyone. But there's little room for error in a difficult section.
This week: QF Sat vs. North Metro (Champlin Park)

12. Hopkins (#5,6AA)
-Yes, 5 of the top 12 are in 6AA. Should make for one of the best quarterfinal matchups in state history this Thursday. They've shown they can hang with and even beat anyone if enough things go right. Too bad they're not even going to get a home game in the section.
This week: QF Thurs at #8 Benilde-St. Margaret's, SF Sat vs. #2 Eden Prairie/Minneapolis East or West(BIG/Braemar)

13. Moorhead (#1, 8AA)
-A win over Hill proves they belong up here, and have a very good shot at a state tourney. It will likely come down to another grudge match with Roseau, which has quickly become one of the best playoff rivalries in the state. The Spuds are looking to avenge some ugly ones in recent years.
This week: QF vs. River Lakes Tues, SF vs. Brainerd/Buffalo Sat (SCSU)

14. Woodbury (#1,3AA)
-A close but good win over WBL wins them the SEC and has them in good, though not great, shape going in to sections. It was a fairly pedestrian regular season; we'll see if they show any flashes in what does not appear to be that strong a section.
This week: QF Thurs vs. Rosemount/Henry Sibley, SF Sat vs. Apple Valley/Eastview (Coliseum)

15. Cretin-Derham Hall (#2,3AA)
-Have not completely closed the gap on Woodbury, but have made some headway and closed out the season on an upswing, winning 9 of 10. Could make some noise down the stretch; a bit strange to think they're only 3 years removed from a state title.
This week: QF Thurs vs. Park (CG), SF Sat vs. #18 Eagan/Hastings(Coliseum)

16. Elk River (#2, 7AA)
-Wow, what an awful way to end the season. I really have no idea what to make of this team right now. They're capable of beating Blaine and Centennial, but they can't win two games against lower-level conference competition in the last week of the season. They could win 7AA, but they could also easily get upset early on.
This week: QF vs. Anoka Thurs, SF vs. Grand Rapids/Cloquet Sat (DECC)

17. Burnsville (#4,2AA)
-A team that should not be taken for granted, considering their recent near-upset of EP and obvious improvement since those ugly losses early in the year. Could be a potential road bump to the #1 seed, or could roll over for them. Have done a pretty good job at making a run of things the past few years, though.
This week: QF Thurs vs. Chaska, SF Sat vs. #3 Bloomington Jefferson/Shakopee (BIG/Braemar)

18. Eagan (#3,3AA)
-Wrapped up a strong year in the Lake and are in good position to make some noise in 3AA. They could definitely win the section and have shown occasional flashes.
This week: QF Thurs vs. Hastings, SF Sat vs. #15 Cretin-Derham Hall/Park (CG) (Coliseum)

19. Tartan (#1, 4AA)
-Have yet to really be tested by a top-flight AA team, but certainly ended the season on a high note. And also, they have the good fortune of being in a section in which there are no real top-flight teams, and drawing the 1 seed eases things up a little bit. Time to see just how real they are.
This week: QF vs. St. Paul Johnson/St. Paul Saints Sat (Aldrich)

20. White Bear Lake (#3, 4AA)
-Closed the season with 2 losses, but at least they were losses to 2 pretty decent teams. Possibly the most talented team in 4AA; time to see if they can finally seize a golden opportunity and make a run.
This week: QF vs. Mounds View Sat (Aldrich)

21. Hill-Murray (#2, 4AA)
-Not exactly rolling into the playoffs, but a well-coached team that still has some talent around. A Tourney berth is well within reach.
This week: QF vs. North St. Paul/St. Paul Como Park Sat (Aldrich)

22. Roseau (#2, 8AA)
-Overall season in pretty week, but they've come on a bit at the end, and are very capable of defending their section title and earning another trip to the X, though it would certainly be under very different circumstances from last year.
This week: QF vs. Monticello Tues, SF vs. St. Cloud Tech/Northern Lakes Sat (SCSU)

23. Osseo (#5,5AA)
-After a pair of big upsets this week, I suppose they have to be considered a dangerous team in sections. A .500 season as an NWSC team is not all that bad this year.
This week: QF Sat vs. Osseo (Andover)

24. Roseville (#4, 4AA)
-#4 in the SEC and #4 4AA, but that gives you a shot at state this year. Unfortunately for them, they have to play 3 decent teams instead of 2, like the the teams above them.
This week: QF Sat vs. Stillwater (Aldrich)

25. Rochester Mayo (#1,1AA)
-More for the novelty of having a 1AA team ranked than anything else. Andover or Grand Rapids is probably more deserving, but hey, they are going to be the #1 seed, and Lorne Grosso deserves a shout out for career win #600.
This week: QF Thurs vs. Rochester John Marshall/Dodge County, SF Sat vs. Rochester Century/Winona (Rochester)

Enjoy the first week of playoff hockey!

Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 1:14 am
by Papa Bergundy
Nice work Karl. Finished off nicely like your top team the Hornets did in one of the most electrifying regular season games I've been to. This year at least. I think they justified your somewhat debated 1st place ranking.

Thought it was funny all of the top 12 minus Duluth East are from sections 2, 5 and 6. While the top team from section one barely snuck in at #25.

Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 6:46 am
by Goldfishdude
This is gospel, folks.... Sunday morning sermons are now complete. Who needs Let's Play Hockey???

Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 7:24 am
by puck81
Once again a great job with the rankings Karl. After watching the last few weeks of the season with all the up and down play of most of the teams one can say that it's anybody's title to win.

Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 8:47 am
by bananastick
Karl- I really enjoy Sunday mornings and your very indepth review of the previous week and rankings. I do have one question regarding Benilde. I will also disclose I'm a Wayzata fan as I graduated from there. I checked Benildes schedule and thought that it was pretty weak, wins over Burnsville and Minnetonka appear to be the highlights. Their strength of schedule is in the 30', yet you place them ahead of Wayzata. Wayzata's strength of schedule has been in the top 5 all year and they beat Benilde 2-0. Wayzata has lost both games to minnetona, one in overtime, the other game much worse.

Just looking for your thought process. It's one spot and doesn't really matter in the big picture. Thanks

Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 10:18 am
by DoubleDeuce
Thanks again Karl! Even though I didn't get to enjoy your fresh rankings with some fresh coffee the past few weeks, as that was only because I read them beore I went to bed. I still enjoyed reading all the debates on Sunday morning. I hope this is something you will do next season. I had always used the Let's Play Hockey rankings as the main ranking of all other rankings. But after the first week you two, I used yours. I enjoyed how you explained why they were where they were at and stood by it. Thanks Again.

After seening Centennial lose to Maple Grove, Elk River, Osseo and the tie with Andover in the closing weeks, I had lost all hope for this team. But your reminded me they still have the talent. You gave me back a little hope for the playoffs! Thanks!

Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 11:02 am
by karl(east)
bananastick wrote:Karl- I really enjoy Sunday mornings and your very indepth review of the previous week and rankings. I do have one question regarding Benilde. I will also disclose I'm a Wayzata fan as I graduated from there. I checked Benildes schedule and thought that it was pretty weak, wins over Burnsville and Minnetonka appear to be the highlights. Their strength of schedule is in the 30', yet you place them ahead of Wayzata. Wayzata's strength of schedule has been in the top 5 all year and they beat Benilde 2-0. Wayzata has lost both games to minnetona, one in overtime, the other game much worse.

Just looking for your thought process. It's one spot and doesn't really matter in the big picture. Thanks
No problem; thanks for the question. Although Wayzata beat Benilde, Benilde does have two wins over common opponents to which Wayzata has lost (Burnsville, and more importantly, Minnetonka). Also, I get the feeling--and maybe you disagree; I'm sure you know more about Wayzata than I do--that the Trojans haven't really shown much improvement this year, and that they're not playing their best hockey right now. Their scores against Edina and Minnetonka gradually got worse and worse as the season went on. So that's the rationale there.

Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 11:29 am
by bananastick
karl(east) wrote:
bananastick wrote:Karl- I really enjoy Sunday mornings and your very indepth review of the previous week and rankings. I do have one question regarding Benilde. I will also disclose I'm a Wayzata fan as I graduated from there. I checked Benildes schedule and thought that it was pretty weak, wins over Burnsville and Minnetonka appear to be the highlights. Their strength of schedule is in the 30', yet you place them ahead of Wayzata. Wayzata's strength of schedule has been in the top 5 all year and they beat Benilde 2-0. Wayzata has lost both games to minnetona, one in overtime, the other game much worse.

Just looking for your thought process. It's one spot and doesn't really matter in the big picture. Thanks
No problem; thanks for the question. Although Wayzata beat Benilde, Benilde does have two wins over common opponents to which Wayzata has lost (Burnsville, and more importantly, Minnetonka). Also, I get the feeling--and maybe you disagree; I'm sure you know more about Wayzata than I do--that the Trojans haven't really shown much improvement this year, and that they're not playing their best hockey right now. Their scores against Edina and Minnetonka gradually got worse and worse as the season went on. So that's the rationale there.
You are correct, Wayzata is not playing as well as the first part of the year. I also agree they could the first 6aa team eliminated. Thanks.

Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 7:47 pm
by karl(east)
Bump: All the schedules and seedings have now been entered.

Let the fun begin.

Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 10:16 pm
by Dean_O66
All i can say is I hope your right with your 13th pick!! Lets hope the spuds can finally maker back to state!!

GO SPUDS!!

Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 10:25 pm
by dulutheastfan
Looks good to me karl goodjob again....its nice to have someone on this forum that knows lots about other teams and can rank them that well =D>

Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 10:38 pm
by BIGSEXY
dulutheastfan wrote:Looks good to me karl goodjob again....its nice to have someone on this forum that knows lots about other teams and can rank them that well =D>
Agreed! The complete research you do on such a large number of teams is much appreciated!

P.S. It's good to see the Bengals back in the top 5. :D

Posted: Mon Feb 23, 2009 3:34 am
by MNHockey75
2/22

1. Eden Prairie 22-3
2. Bloomington Jefferson 24-1
3. Edina 21-4
4. Duluth East 21-3-1
5. Minnetonka 18-7
6. Blaine 21-3-1
7. Academy of Holy Angels 20-4-1
8. Centennial 17-4-4
9. Benilde-St. Margaret’s 20-6
10. Woodbury 20-3-2
11. Maple Grove 19-3-3
12. Wayzata 16-8-1
13. Elk River 15-9-1
14. Hopkins 15-9-1
15. Cretin-Derham Hall 17-7-1
ORV: Moorhead, Hill-Murray, White Bear Lake, Burnsville, Eagan