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AA Rankings for 12/13/09

Posted: Sun Dec 13, 2009 12:14 am
by karl(east)
First off, I have to point out what a spectacular week of hockey we have ahead of us. We’ve got arguably the three of the four greatest rivalries between AA powers (WBL-Hill, Moorhead-Roseau, East-Cloquet), one of the most fun holiday tournaments featuring four great programs, a matchup of the number one teams in each class, and the regular slough of entertaining games up and down the board. So find some time to get out to an arena near you this week. Or if there aren’t any near you, buy yourself a plane ticket and head back to Minnesota in time for your favorite game. It’s what I’m doing. (Well, sort of. I just got fortunate with my final exam schedule this year. But barring any unforeseen delays, I’ll be back in Duluth Thursday night, just in time for a hockey game.)

As for the rankings, things haven’t been too difficult in the early going. This is probably because we’ve only had 2 top-10 matchups, one of which turned out to be a dud (Tonka-Woodbury), and another that ended in a tie (Hill-Benilde). There are no tangled webs of A beating B beating C beating A yet. I suspect they’re coming; holiday tournaments have a habit of bringing them around. But for now, everything falls nicely into a couple of tiers, which I will outline in the rankings. The number after the team is their record so far; I’ll get more creative in the coming weeks and offer random statistics with the rankings that will hopefully contribute something to the discussion.

Teams 1-3 are a bit ahead of the rest of the pack, and are loaded with talented and experienced players.
1. Minnetonka (4-0)
-Were idle this past week, but play the biggest game to date of the young season on Saturday when they take on Class A #1 St. Thomas. An awful lot is riding on it in both classes; we’ll see if the game lives up to the hype.
This week: Tues vs. Park (Cottage Grove), Sat vs. St. Thomas Academy

2. Bloomington Jefferson (5-0)
-They haven’t been playing elite competition, but they have run into a couple of good teams and absolutely slaughtered them. They’re averaging 8.4 goals a game right now. While the schedule isn’t strong, it’s important not to judge them too much by that debacle against Edina last year; don’t forget they beat EP in one of two tries, too. This week shouldn’t pose too much of a challenge.
This week: Thurs vs. Eagan, Sat vs. Eastview

3. Eden Prairie (3-0)
-Had a little more trouble than they probably should have against Lakeville North, but got through it and are on to more important things, like the Edina Holiday Classic this week. Don’t read too much into my dropping them a second week in a row; a convincing showing this week will probably move them back up; right now it’s more of a feel than anything in sorting out the top 3 teams. Since the Eagles aren’t in a post-Christmas tournament, this will be one of their biggest sequences of games this year. I’m especially intrigued by the first-night matchup with Elk River.
This week: Edina Holiday Classic-- #8 Elk River Thurs, Grand Rapids Fri, #12 Edina Sat

Teams 4-6 can contend for a state title but aren’t quite as complete as the above teams. They seem to lack either the depth (Benilde, Blaine) or the star power (Hill).
4. Hill-Murray (4-0-1)
-By all accounts looked the better team in the tie against Benilde; hence the jump in the rankings. Took care of business against a potentially tough South St. Paul team, too. On paper they shouldn’t have too much trouble with the opposition this week, though one never knows with rivalry games.
This week: Tues vs. White Bear Lake, Thurs at Simley, Sat at Mahtomedi

5. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (3-0-1)
-Lack of depth exposed a bit against Hill, though they still definitely proved that they belong up here. Important game against Cretin on Tuesday; a convincing win would help clear up the top ten.
This week: Tues vs. #15 Cretin-Derham Hall, Thurs vs. Chisago Lakes

6. Blaine (3-0)
-Survived another close game against Osseo, giving them frontrunner status in 5AA but reminding us that it’s not a foregone conclusion. A couple easy NWSC games this week before a long string of tough games.
This week: Thurs at Champlin Park, Sat at Anoka

Teams 7-8 could jump into the title picture, but we don’t really know enough about them.
7. Holy Angels (1-0)
-Had a good bit of fun against Shakopee in the opener, and will probably continue to put up gaudy numbers this week. After that they get a nice long string of real tests.
This week: Tues vs. Northfield, Fri vs. Prior Lake

8. Elk River (3-0)
-Quietly off to a very strong start after two routs of low-level NWSC teams this week. Now the real test begins; they’re the team whose results I’m most interested in seeing in the EHC.
This week: Edina Holiday Classic-- #3 Eden Prairie Thurs, #12 Edina Fri, Grand Rapids Sat

9-15 is packed very tightly; though Wayzata deserves to be at the front, after that it’s a bit of a mess.
9. Wayzata (4-0-1)
-Tie against Osseo was a mild letdown after the impressive start to the season, though that may be more of a reflection on Osseo than on Wayzata. Look to have a competitive game on their hands this Tuesday, continuing the busy early schedule.
This week: Tues vs. Apple Valley

10. Osseo (2-1-1)
-Welcome to the big stage, Osseo. A tie against Wayzata, the narrowest of losses to Blaine, and a rout of Rogers sends them rocketing into the rankings. Unfortunately their schedule takes an easy turn from here, so may not know how much staying power they have. No matter what, they’re not a team to be trifled with.
This week: Thurs at Coon Rapids, Sat vs. Champlin Park

11. Duluth East (5-1)
-They aren’t blowing away their weaker competition the way some other top teams are, but they reasserted themselves with a win over White Bear despite a depleted roster. It’s an interesting week ahead; they’ll be favored in both games, but Centennial is very capable of pulling off an upset and history tells us to never assume anything in East-Cloquet.
This week: Tues vs. Centennial, Thurs vs. Cloquet

12. Edina (4-1)
-Handled Woodbury quite well, though it’s rather hard to tell how much value to give that win right now. The bottom line is that they’re still looming in the picture and could give the higher- ranked teams plenty of problems in their holiday tourney.
This week: Edina Holiday Classic-- Grand Rapids Thurs, #8 Elk River Fri, #3 Eden Prairie Sat

13. Moorhead (3-0)
-Got by upset-minded Bemidji, then put a beating on Buffalo in preparation for the biggest game of their season to date. Still hard to measure them properly against the rest of the state. Saturday game is no pushover either, and also important as they continue their 8AA tour.
This week: Tues vs. #14 Roseau, Sat vs. Brainerd

14. Roseau (4-1)
-Continue to score goals at a torrid pace; we’ll see how they handle a strong defensive team this week when they head down to Moorhead. After that, they’ll be tested in Grand Forks by some of North Dakota’s finest.
This week: Tues at #13 Moorhead, Thursday/Friday/Saturday at Grand Forks Herald/Stadstad Classic (1st game vs. Grand Forks Red River (ND); other participants are East Grand Forks, Apple Valley, Grand Forks Central, Bismarck Century, Grafton-Park River, Bismarck High)

15. Cretin-Derham Hall (4-0)
-Yes, they won both their games this week, and yes, I sent them plummeting five spots in the rankings. Why? The wins were by one goal against weaker teams, and I have a feeling that the Benilde game won’t be that close. We’ll see. Somehow, they’re still the class of 3AA right now.
This week: Tues at #5 Benilde, Thurs at East Ridge, Sat vs. Forest Lake

Others of note (with a faint attempt at order, though it really is a mess):
Centennial. Scores suggest they’re down quite a bit, but since everyone behind them is losing this will have to do.
Bemidji. Played Moorhead well enough to gain some mention.
Andover. Hard to really tell right now.
White Bear Lake. Hovering around the periphery, as is their wont.
Apple Valley. Plenty of talent, but showed they’re not quite ready for all the hype with a couple of ugly losses.
Burnsville. Playing good teams reasonably well.
Tartan. Gave STA a good run and should build up a gaudy record, though that loss to Woodbury stings.
Park (CG). I never would have guessed this, but they’ve played their way into the picture.
Woodbury. Frankly, who knows?
Stillwater. All over the place so far.
Grand Rapids. They’ve been wildly inconsistent in the early going, but the win over Warroad serves notice to the other teams in the Edina Holiday Classic that they can’t be taken lightly.
Eagan. Off to a good start.
Maple Grove. Clearly down from last year.
Rochester Century. Not bad for a 1AA team.

Okay, I went a little overboard there. Enough of that. On to the section-by-section rundown. I’ll try to do this twice a month.

1AA
Rochester Century
Believe it or not, Century has one of the largest leads of any team over the rest of the section. Beyond them, it’s an ugly mess of mediocre teams such as the Lakevilles, Owatonna, and Winona.

2AA
2 Jefferson
7 Holy Angels
12 Edina
Nothing has happened to help sort this section out since the start of the season. Still looks to be a strong one, though.

3AA
15 Cretin
Apple Valley
Park
Woodbury
Eagan
My most grievous error in the early rankings came in this section. I thought it would be strong; instead, we’ve got an uninspiring Cretin team as the de facto leaders. Beyond that, it’s a free-for-all at the moment. It should sort itself out pretty well, though.

4AA
4 Hill
Tartan
White Bear Lake
Stillwater
We’ll find out this week just how far ahead Hill is of the rest of the field. None of them have really stepped up into the picture yet.

5AA
6 Blaine
10 Osseo
Centennial
Maple Grove
Slight change from the past in that it’s Osseo chasing Blaine other than Centennial, but otherwise everything looks to be in order. A bit down from last year, though there’s time to turn that around.

6AA
1 Minnetonka
3 Eden Prairie
5 Benilde
9 Wayzata
The Section of Death has only gotten tighter since the year began, with Wayzata’s rise.

7AA
8 Elk River
11 Duluth East
Andover
Grand Rapids
Forest Lake?
Flake upset Rapids, which moves them into the picture, sort of. Elk River’s established itself at the top, while East and maybe Andover still pose potential threats.

8AA
13 Moorhead
14 Roseau
Bemidji
Brainerd
The showdown this week will decide who deserves frontrunner status. The section seems a bit stronger as a whole than in recent years.

Since the discussion on these rankings so far has been rather limited, I’d like to invite questions, too. If you want to know why I have team X ahead of team Y while Let’s Play Hockey or Follow the Puck have them the other way around, I probably have an explanation (and if I don’t, I should). That doesn’t mean mine are necessarily better than the other ones, but I do have a reason for ranking things the way I do (as should the others, if we press them). Just keep it civil.

Re: AA Rankings for 12/13/09

Posted: Sun Dec 13, 2009 12:17 am
by PowerForward25
karl(east) wrote:First off, I have to point out what a spectacular week of hockey we have ahead of us. We’ve got arguably the three of the four greatest rivalries between AA powers (WBL-Hill, Moorhead-Roseau, East-Cloquet), one of the most fun holiday tournaments featuring four great programs, a matchup of the number one teams in each class, and the regular slough of entertaining games up and down the board. So find some time to get out to an arena near you this week. Or if there aren’t any near you, buy yourself a plane ticket and head back to Minnesota in time for your favorite game. It’s what I’m doing. (Well, sort of. I just got fortunate with my final exam schedule this year. But barring any unforeseen delays, I’ll be back in Duluth Thursday night, just in time for a hockey game.)

As for the rankings, things haven’t been too difficult in the early going. This is probably because we’ve only had 2 top-10 matchups, one of which turned out to be a dud (Tonka-Woodbury), and another that ended in a tie (Hill-Benilde). There are no tangled webs of A beating B beating C beating A yet. I suspect they’re coming; holiday tournaments have a habit of bringing them around. But for now, everything falls nicely into a couple of tiers, which I will outline in the rankings. The number after the team is their record so far; I’ll get more creative in the coming weeks and offer random statistics with the rankings that will hopefully contribute something to the discussion.

Teams 1-3 are a bit ahead of the rest of the pack, and are loaded with talented and experienced players.
1. Minnetonka (4-0)
-Were idle this past week, but play the biggest game to date of the young season on Saturday when they take on Class A #1 St. Thomas. An awful lot is riding on it in both classes; we’ll see if the game lives up to the hype.
This week: Tues vs. Park (Cottage Grove), Sat vs. St. Thomas Academy

2. Bloomington Jefferson (5-0)
-They haven’t been playing elite competition, but they have run into a couple of good teams and absolutely slaughtered them. They’re averaging 8.4 goals a game right now. While the schedule isn’t strong, it’s important not to judge them too much by that debacle against Edina last year; don’t forget they beat EP in one of two tries, too. This week shouldn’t pose too much of a challenge.
This week: Thurs vs. Eagan, Sat vs. Eastview

3. Eden Prairie (3-0)
-Had a little more trouble than they probably should have against Lakeville North, but got through it and are on to more important things, like the Edina Holiday Classic this week. Don’t read too much into my dropping them a second week in a row; a convincing showing this week will probably move them back up; right now it’s more of a feel than anything in sorting out the top 3 teams. Since the Eagles aren’t in a post-Christmas tournament, this will be one of their biggest sequences of games this year. I’m especially intrigued by the first-night matchup with Elk River.
This week: Edina Holiday Classic-- #8 Elk River Thurs, Grand Rapids Fri, #12 Edina Sat

Teams 4-6 can contend for a state title but aren’t quite as complete as the above teams. They seem to lack either the depth (Benilde, Blaine) or the star power (Hill).
4. Hill-Murray (4-0-1)
-By all accounts looked the better team in the tie against Benilde; hence the jump in the rankings. Took care of business against a potentially tough South St. Paul team, too. On paper they shouldn’t have too much trouble with the opposition this week, though one never knows with rivalry games.
This week: Tues vs. White Bear Lake, Thurs at Simley, Sat at Mahtomedi

5. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (3-0-1)
-Lack of depth exposed a bit against Hill, though they still definitely proved that they belong up here. Important game against Cretin on Tuesday; a convincing win would help clear up the top ten.
This week: Tues vs. #15 Cretin-Derham Hall, Thurs vs. Chisago Lakes

6. Blaine (3-0)
-Survived another close game against Osseo, giving them frontrunner status in 5AA but reminding us that it’s not a foregone conclusion. A couple easy NWSC games this week before a long string of tough games.
This week: Thurs at Champlin Park, Sat at Anoka

Teams 7-8 could jump into the title picture, but we don’t really know enough about them.
7. Holy Angels (1-0)
-Had a good bit of fun against Shakopee in the opener, and will probably continue to put up gaudy numbers this week. After that they get a nice long string of real tests.
This week: Tues vs. Northfield, Fri vs. Prior Lake

8. Elk River (3-0)
-Quietly off to a very strong start after two routs of low-level NWSC teams this week. Now the real test begins; they’re the team whose results I’m most interested in seeing in the EHC.
This week: Edina Holiday Classic-- #3 Eden Prairie Thurs, #12 Edina Fri, Grand Rapids Sat

9-15 is packed very tightly; though Wayzata deserves to be at the front, after that it’s a bit of a mess.
9. Wayzata (4-0-1)
-Tie against Osseo was a mild letdown after the impressive start to the season, though that may be more of a reflection on Osseo than on Wayzata. Look to have a competitive game on their hands this Tuesday, continuing the busy early schedule.
This week: Tues vs. Apple Valley

10. Osseo (2-1-1)
-Welcome to the big stage, Osseo. A tie against Wayzata, the narrowest of losses to Blaine, and a rout of Rogers sends them rocketing into the rankings. Unfortunately their schedule takes an easy turn from here, so may not know how much staying power they have. No matter what, they’re not a team to be trifled with.
This week: Thurs at Coon Rapids, Sat vs. Champlin Park

11. Duluth East (5-1)
-They aren’t blowing away their weaker competition the way some other top teams are, but they reasserted themselves with a win over White Bear despite a depleted roster. It’s an interesting week ahead; they’ll be favored in both games, but Centennial is very capable of pulling off an upset and history tells us to never assume anything in East-Cloquet.
This week: Tues vs. Centennial, Thurs vs. Cloquet

12. Edina (4-1)
-Handled Woodbury quite well, though it’s rather hard to tell how much value to give that win right now. The bottom line is that they’re still looming in the picture and could give the higher- ranked teams plenty of problems in their holiday tourney.
This week: Edina Holiday Classic-- Grand Rapids Thurs, #8 Elk River Fri, #3 Eden Prairie Sat

13. Moorhead (3-0)
-Got by upset-minded Bemidji, then put a beating on Buffalo in preparation for the biggest game of their season to date. Still hard to measure them properly against the rest of the state. Saturday game is no pushover either, and also important as they continue their 8AA tour.
This week: Tues vs. #14 Roseau, Sat vs. Brainerd

14. Roseau (4-1)
-Continue to score goals at a torrid pace; we’ll see how they handle a strong defensive team this week when they head down to Moorhead. After that, they’ll be tested in Grand Forks by some of North Dakota’s finest.
This week: Tues at #13 Moorhead, Thursday/Friday/Saturday at Grand Forks Herald/Stadstad Classic (1st game vs. Grand Forks Red River (ND); other participants are East Grand Forks, Apple Valley, Grand Forks Central, Bismarck Century, Grafton-Park River, Bismarck High)

15. Cretin-Derham Hall (4-0)
-Yes, they won both their games this week, and yes, I sent them plummeting five spots in the rankings. Why? The wins were by one goal against weaker teams, and I have a feeling that the Benilde game won’t be that close. We’ll see. Somehow, they’re still the class of 3AA right now.
This week: Tues at #5 Benilde, Thurs at East Ridge, Sat vs. Forest Lake

Others of note (with a faint attempt at order, though it really is a mess):
Centennial. Scores suggest they’re down quite a bit, but since everyone behind them is losing this will have to do.
Bemidji. Played Moorhead well enough to gain some mention.
Andover. Hard to really tell right now.
White Bear Lake. Hovering around the periphery, as is their wont.
Apple Valley. Plenty of talent, but showed they’re not quite ready for all the hype with a couple of ugly losses.
Burnsville. Playing good teams reasonably well.
Tartan. Gave STA a good run and should build up a gaudy record, though that loss to Woodbury stings.
Park (CG). I never would have guessed this, but they’ve played their way into the picture.
Woodbury. Frankly, who knows?
Stillwater. All over the place so far.
Grand Rapids. They’ve been wildly inconsistent in the early going, but the win over Warroad serves notice to the other teams in the Edina Holiday Classic that they can’t be taken lightly.
Eagan. Off to a good start.
Maple Grove. Clearly down from last year.
Rochester Century. Not bad for a 1AA team.

Okay, I went a little overboard there. Enough of that. On to the section-by-section rundown. I’ll try to do this twice a month.

1AA
Rochester Century
Believe it or not, Century has one of the largest leads of any team over the rest of the section. Beyond them, it’s an ugly mess of mediocre teams such as the Lakevilles, Owatonna, and Winona.

2AA
2 Jefferson
7 Holy Angels
12 Edina
Nothing has happened to help sort this section out since the start of the season. Still looks to be a strong one, though.

3AA
15 Cretin
Apple Valley
Park
Woodbury
Eagan
My most grievous error in the early rankings came in this section. I thought it would be strong; instead, we’ve got an uninspiring Cretin team as the de facto leaders. Beyond that, it’s a free-for-all at the moment. It should sort itself out pretty well, though.

4AA
4 Hill
Tartan
White Bear Lake
Stillwater
We’ll find out this week just how far ahead Hill is of the rest of the field. None of them have really stepped up into the picture yet.

5AA
6 Blaine
10 Osseo
Centennial
Maple Grove
Slight change from the past in that it’s Osseo chasing Blaine other than Centennial, but otherwise everything looks to be in order. A bit down from last year, though there’s time to turn that around.

6AA
1 Minnetonka
3 Eden Prairie
5 Benilde
9 Wayzata
The Section of Death has only gotten tighter since the year began, with Wayzata’s rise.

7AA
8 Elk River
11 Duluth East
Andover
Grand Rapids
Forest Lake?
Flake upset Rapids, which moves them into the picture, sort of. Elk River’s established itself at the top, while East and maybe Andover still pose potential threats.

8AA
13 Moorhead
14 Roseau
Bemidji
Brainerd
The showdown this week will decide who deserves frontrunner status. The section seems a bit stronger as a whole than in recent years.

Since the discussion on these rankings so far has been rather limited, I’d like to invite questions, too. If you want to know why I have team X ahead of team Y while Let’s Play Hockey or Follow the Puck have them the other way around, I probably have an explanation (and if I don’t, I should). That doesn’t mean mine are necessarily better than the other ones, but I do have a reason for ranking things the way I do (as should the others, if we press them). Just keep it civil.
You are simply scrumtrulescent.

Posted: Sun Dec 13, 2009 12:37 am
by buddish4mrhockey
whats up with Jefferson over Ep now? whats the reasoning behind that?

Posted: Sun Dec 13, 2009 12:51 am
by got some
Thank you for quoting the entire post, powerforward. That was definitely necessary.

Karl, so perfect. Can't wait to see the results this week.

Posted: Sun Dec 13, 2009 1:01 am
by Roseauverrated
buddish4mrhockey wrote:whats up with Jefferson over Ep now? whats the reasoning behind that?
Did you read his post???? He clearly explains it.

As usual, great job again Karl! This early into the season it's really hard to come up with accurate rankings, there just haven't been enough games played. You do a great job!

Posted: Sun Dec 13, 2009 1:06 am
by hockeyjunkie2
Well done as usual karl. After watching Jefferson tonight I cant argue your point. They take every opportunity you give them and make you pay.

Posted: Sun Dec 13, 2009 7:09 am
by puck81
Who needs all those other rankings. We have Karl!

Posted: Sun Dec 13, 2009 9:48 am
by HShockeywatcher
This is the week that any of Rapids, Elk River, Edina or Eden Prairie can really stand out. Whoever goes 3-0 should make a big jump and it's looking this year like it could be anyone.

Posted: Sun Dec 13, 2009 9:55 am
by wbmd
puck81 wrote:Who needs all those other rankings. We have Karl!
But, you must remember that Karl doesn't see most of these teams play during the season. In fact, being located in Washington DC, he sees very little of Minnesota hockey. A true rater would see a lot of these teams playing weekly instead of going by what he reads on these forums and other sites.

In essence, other rankings are needed as well (except for the ratings from Let's Play Hockey which have always been a big joke as well as being biased every season).

Posted: Sun Dec 13, 2009 9:58 am
by Ilovethe212
HShockeywatcher wrote:This is the week that any of Rapids, Elk River, Edina or Eden Prairie can really stand out. Whoever goes 3-0 should make a big jump and it's looking this year like it could be anyone.
If by anyone you mean Edina, Elk River or Eden Prairie yes, but Grand Rapids has zero chance of winning all three games. IMO

Posted: Sun Dec 13, 2009 11:36 am
by karl(east)
wbmd wrote:
puck81 wrote:Who needs all those other rankings. We have Karl!
But, you must remember that Karl doesn't see most of these teams play during the season. In fact, being located in Washington DC, he sees very little of Minnesota hockey. A true rater would see a lot of these teams playing weekly instead of going by what he reads on these forums and other sites.

In essence, other rankings are needed as well (except for the ratings from Let's Play Hockey which have always been a big joke as well as being biased every season).
Doing this from so far away is both a blessing and a curse. On the one hand, I think the distance is a good filter for some of the hype that's thrown around, and I've gotten pretty good at taking things written on here with the necessary grain of salt. And thanks to things like myfoxhockey and MSBN, I'll be able to see most of the top teams as the year goes on. And while watching games definitely helps a lot, catching a team on a good/bad night can give a very wrong impression.

The other rankings do serve a purpose, though I'd be lying if I said I wasn't trying to outdo them. The other human polls give perspective on what other people value, and the computer methods are very helpful, especially since they give equal attention to all teams, which is something I don't have the time or resources to do. And LPH, well, if it hadn't been so wrong in the first place, I wouldn't have had the inspiration to do this.

Posted: Sun Dec 13, 2009 11:42 am
by HockeyMN1
EP has been hurt by injuries early in this year; as of last night two of their super sophs from last year have gone down. Jack McCartan suffered a concussion in yesterday's game vs LV North so I would bet he misses the Holiday Classic next weekend and Des Shavlik got his achilles tendon sliced with a skate (OWWWW!!! :!: ) in practice and is out for the year, wish him the best in his recovery. Also backup senior goalie Matt Halloran has been out since the start of the year, don't know when he will return and maybe give Ford a break from 3 games in 3 days.

Posted: Sun Dec 13, 2009 12:34 pm
by youngblood08
HockeyMN1 wrote:EP has been hurt by injuries early in this year; as of last night two of their super sophs from last year have gone down. Jack McCartan suffered a concussion in yesterday's game vs LV North so I would bet he misses the Holiday Classic next weekend and Des Shavlik got his achilles tendon sliced with a skate (OWWWW!!! :!: ) in practice and is out for the year, wish him the best in his recovery. Also backup senior goalie Matt Halloran has been out since the start of the year, don't know when he will return and maybe give Ford a break from 3 games in 3 days.

Pioneerprideguy does NOT want to hear your sob story about injuries, nor bus rides. Just give the the happy news.


ps - feel your pain we lost our #1 D to a shoulder again...except the other shoulder! That skate slice sounds nasty, What kind of skates was he wearing??

Posted: Sun Dec 13, 2009 12:37 pm
by HShockeywatcher
I agree with karl completely and wbmd to a point. While many can see some games, most cannot see all games all teams play, which would bring in much bias.

When all you have is the numbers and the stats, you have what actually happens. Look at the St Thomas/Breck game (sorry, one I care about), people who were there said St Thomas dominated and SHOULD have been way up on Breck, Breck was lucky to not be down by less. But when it comes down to it, they didn't score on all of their shots and almost lost the game.

Just my two cents.

Posted: Sun Dec 13, 2009 3:02 pm
by Factsmatter1
Karl,

As usual a stellar performance. I wonder if you would consider ranking the top individual talent by school year and position.

Much as you were frustrated with the team rankings after watching the LPH I am frustrated with top player lists. As a Minnesota native but now living in another state such as yourself I am frustrated with biases, political agendas and parental hype surrounding highlighting top players in various pubs, LPH, Breakdown, etc., etc. Since I work in the hockey community but now live in another state out east I frequently get asked by out town of interested hockey folk, scouts, fans, etc what are the best sources of identifying MN talent. My current default is the Advanced (formely Select) 15/16/17 program since that is the only program that puts kids side by side over a fairly intense and short observational period scrutinized by 8+ hockey experts. However, this only happens once a year and they don't rank the kids (only section teams, Final 54, and then National team). The good thing about this program is that it does tend to eliminate the coaching, parental and media hype.

I think many in my network would actually pay for access to something like that which had the rigor, factual accuracy and competence your weekly team rankings demonstrate. Would you consider doing this? Thoughts by anyone else....? It would be a great asset for the hockey community both in and out of Minnesota... and maybe we could spring Karl from his day job... :D

Posted: Sun Dec 13, 2009 7:16 pm
by HockeyMN1
youngblood08 wrote:
HockeyMN1 wrote:EP has been hurt by injuries early in this year; as of last night two of their super sophs from last year have gone down. Jack McCartan suffered a concussion in yesterday's game vs LV North so I would bet he misses the Holiday Classic next weekend and Des Shavlik got his achilles tendon sliced with a skate (OWWWW!!! :!: ) in practice and is out for the year, wish him the best in his recovery. Also backup senior goalie Matt Halloran has been out since the start of the year, don't know when he will return and maybe give Ford a break from 3 games in 3 days.

Pioneerprideguy does NOT want to hear your sob story about injuries, nor bus rides. Just give the the happy news.


ps - feel your pain we lost our #1 D to a shoulder again...except the other shoulder! That skate slice sounds nasty, What kind of skates was he wearing??
I don't know, I think it might have even been another player's skate that did it, i'm not sure.

Posted: Sun Dec 13, 2009 8:55 pm
by karl(east)
Factsmatter1 wrote:Karl,

As usual a stellar performance. I wonder if you would consider ranking the top individual talent by school year and position.

Much as you were frustrated with the team rankings after watching the LPH I am frustrated with top player lists. As a Minnesota native but now living in another state such as yourself I am frustrated with biases, political agendas and parental hype surrounding highlighting top players in various pubs, LPH, Breakdown, etc., etc. Since I work in the hockey community but now live in another state out east I frequently get asked by out town of interested hockey folk, scouts, fans, etc what are the best sources of identifying MN talent. My current default is the Advanced (formely Select) 15/16/17 program since that is the only program that puts kids side by side over a fairly intense and short observational period scrutinized by 8+ hockey experts. However, this only happens once a year and they don't rank the kids (only section teams, Final 54, and then National team). The good thing about this program is that it does tend to eliminate the coaching, parental and media hype.

I think many in my network would actually pay for access to something like that which had the rigor, factual accuracy and competence your weekly team rankings demonstrate. Would you consider doing this? Thoughts by anyone else....? It would be a great asset for the hockey community both in and out of Minnesota... and maybe we could spring Karl from his day job... :D
First off, let me say how humbled and honored I am that you think I could do such a thing.

However, I will be the first to admit that, while I am (forgive my immodesty) quite good at team rankings, my ability to assess individual players is decidedly mediocre. When I watch hockey, I rarely focus on individuals, but rather on the team dynamics and the bigger picture.

I also should note that I'm a college sophomore at the moment; I'm at a university that I both love and feel very privileged to attend. My hockey obsession is a way to break the monotony of the workload and keep in touch with one of my favorite aspects of my home state. While I have no idea what's going to happen after I graduate, I'm very happy with where I am right now (aside from dealing with the three final exams that now stand in between where I am now and my return to Duluth for East-Cloquet on Thursday night).

Again, my sincere thanks.

Posted: Sun Dec 13, 2009 8:59 pm
by Northsider
Unbelievable, again!

If I may ask, what is your take on the White Bear-Hill showdown at Aldrich coming up?

Posted: Sun Dec 13, 2009 9:09 pm
by karl(east)
Northsider wrote:If I may ask, what is your take on the White Bear-Hill showdown at Aldrich coming up?
On paper, Hill by 4.

But after watching so many screwy things happen in East-Cloquet games, I know that anything can happen in a rivalry game. If White Bear gets an early goal or two, look out.

Posted: Sun Dec 13, 2009 11:29 pm
by HappyHockeyFan
karl(east) wrote:
Northsider wrote:If I may ask, what is your take on the White Bear-Hill showdown at Aldrich coming up?
On paper, Hill by 4.

But after watching so many screwy things happen in East-Cloquet games, I know that anything can happen in a rivalry game. If White Bear gets an early goal or two, look out.
Great job, but I dont get Osseo ranked over both Duluth East and Edina, could you explain....?

Posted: Sun Dec 13, 2009 11:56 pm
by karl(east)
HappyHockeyFan wrote:
karl(east) wrote:
Northsider wrote:If I may ask, what is your take on the White Bear-Hill showdown at Aldrich coming up?
On paper, Hill by 4.

But after watching so many screwy things happen in East-Cloquet games, I know that anything can happen in a rivalry game. If White Bear gets an early goal or two, look out.
Great job, but I dont get Osseo ranked over both Duluth East and Edina, could you explain....?
Sure.

Osseo, East, and Edina have all played Wayzata, and they're ranked in order of their results against Wayzata. Osseo managed a 4-4 tie, while East lost 4-3 in OT while outshooting Wayzata, and Edina lost 4-2 and was outshot by a decent margin. So right now I'm using the one common opponent they've all got.

And even though Osseo lost to Blaine, it was a close enough game to prove that the Wayzata result wasn't a fluke. It looks like they're legit; we'll see if they can hold up through the NWSC schedule.

Posted: Mon Dec 14, 2009 9:04 am
by Toews is god 19
I agree. Great rankings, but a little early to throw Osseo in front of alot of the 11-15+ teams

Posted: Mon Dec 14, 2009 9:24 am
by Doglover
Excellent job karl. It's amazing to me how accurate you are given your physical distance from the games and your clear, logical and articulate evaluation of the rankings is greatly appreciated and admired. Keep up the good work and good luck on finals. Looking forward to the holiday tournaments to hopefully separate some of the competition.

Posted: Mon Dec 14, 2009 11:34 am
by HShockeywatcher
"2AA
2 Jefferson
7 Holy Angels
12 Edina
Nothing has happened to help sort this section out since the start of the season. Still looks to be a strong one, though."

You are right. I am a little disappointed that these three schools don't all play each other once or twice. Unless Jefferson loses to a bad conference opponent, Edina surprises us with some tough losses, or Holy Angels surprises us with an undefeated season they will probably be ranked the same as last year, by record. Which is unfortunate, imo.

Posted: Mon Dec 14, 2009 2:39 pm
by karl(east)
HShockeywatcher wrote:"2AA
2 Jefferson
7 Holy Angels
12 Edina
Nothing has happened to help sort this section out since the start of the season. Still looks to be a strong one, though."

You are right. I am a little disappointed that these three schools don't all play each other once or twice. Unless Jefferson loses to a bad conference opponent, Edina surprises us with some tough losses, or Holy Angels surprises us with an undefeated season they will probably be ranked the same as last year, by record. Which is unfortunate, imo.
I agree; the lack of games against each other really complicates this section unnecessarily. We can hope for another Edina-AHA matchup in the Schwan Cup, but otherwise separating these teams can be very difficult, especially with the disparity between them in schedule strength.

We can also hope that the coaches learned their lesson last year about ranking teams strictly on record when others (shameless self-promotion alert) thought otherwise and ended up being right. But I wouldn't count on that.