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This is my second attempt to predict teams with a relatively good chance at doing well this upcoming year. I took all the info i collected from people who posted to my previous postings and here is my newest theory.


157 teams added Goals for per game/157 as an example.
GF 3.6
GA 3.6
SOG 30
Opp Sog 30

Goals from previous year and subtract leaving players numbers. Create Percentage
REt Scorers % 30%

Found that the average goalie save percentage was 0.88 for main goalie of each team
Best Goalie 0.88

Lost half of previous years D or half the F
Lost D half
Lost F half

The teams with stats that were more successful than average were collected. The teams with two or less subpar numbers are considered contenders. I took into considersation GF, GA, SOG, Opp Sog, Ret scorers %, Goalie with average numbers, and lost D and lost F.
Many said that not one stat could eliminate you from contention. Well I figured JV kids can come up and help with one need, but once you have two weaknesses going into a season it becomes more difficult to be the team that comes out of the section. So teams with two or more were eliminated from contention. That left 14 teams with no weakness, 18 teams with one, and 34 with two. The other 91 teams are noncontenders.

What do you guys think

I think maybe a better way to predict success of a team is to create an API (advance power index) that could be used to create an all class team power ranking.

Start with the results from the advance 15, 16, 17 & 18 eliminating the players who are not returning. Now create a point system where point values are awarded for making the section team, final 54, national festival and national team. Points should increase at each level, ie..1.0 section team, 1.3 final 54, 1.6 national festival, 1.9 national team.

I also think that somehow you need to factor in the strength of the section, call it a section multipler. Maybe look at the final 54 and total up the number of players per section that advanced to the 54 rewarding the teams with players who make it from the stronger sections, ie 1.8, 1.7, 1.6, etc.

Now create a position value multiplier where a goalie is worth more than a defenseman and a defenseman is worth more than a forward, ie. 1.0 forward, 2.0 defensemen, 3.0 goalie

Also create an age multiplier where a 92 is worth more than a 93, who is more than a 94, who is worth more than a 95…. 1.0 95, 1.2 94, 1.4 93 & 1.6 92

This should give you a collective team score that indicates the overall talent depth of the top teams