AA Rankings for 12/19/10
Posted: Sun Dec 19, 2010 12:59 am
It was a busy week, and the Edina Holiday Classic did a lovely job of wreaking havoc on the top of the rankings. This is perhaps the most difficult week of the year for rankings, since there are still not a ton of common opponents, and it can be hard to tell whether certain games should be written off as upsets or taken as legitimate proof that a team is in contention. Because of that, there’s still a decent amount of subjectivity at play.
We have a short week ahead of us, as most teams have only one game, but there are a decent number of significant matchups. Next week we’ll reset and put out previews of the holiday tournaments, which will probably cause some major shifts and give us the basis we’ll be working with for the rest of the season.
The second record listed after each team’s W-L record is its record against a group of about 25 other top teams.
1. Wayzata (8-0/6-0)
-Continue to pile up the wins against other good teams, and as others fall around them, they find themselves pushed to the top. Their games this past week were both against common opponents with Eden Prairie, and they did a little worse against both in the wins. They do deserve to be #1 right now, but it’s a fairly tenuous #1 as far as I’m concerned. They shouldn’t be challenged this week, though.
This week: Thurs vs. Roseville
2. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (5-0/3-0)
-AA’s other undefeated elite team. I’m not entirely convinced they belong this high, but with two big wins over other top teams now on the books, we’ll go with it for now. Their holiday tourney should give us a more definitive answer, though they face a pretty good team this week that could take them down if they’re not careful.
This week: Tues at #12 Maple Grove
3. Eden Prairie (5-1/4-1)
-Yes, they lost, but if a team is going to lose, they might as well do it in overtime, on the road against a very talented rival, and in a game where the reffing does not fit their style. They looked like a well-oiled machine in the Edina Tournament; the 2nd line has stepped up, though their 3rd line was not on the level of Edina’s. Face a potentially difficult opponent this week in preparation for a showdown against Benilde in St. Louis Park in two weeks.
This week: Wed at #11 Eagan.
4. Duluth East (5-1/2-1)
-Methodically took care of their two unranked opponents this past week, and have another decent-but-beatable team ahead of them this weekend. After that we’ll get a chance to see them in action against other elite teams.
This week: Tues at Moorhead
5. Edina (5-2/3-2)
-It was a roller coaster of a Holiday Classic for the tournament hosts, as they crashed to the ground against Grand Rapids, then beat Eden Prairie on the final night. Clearly, the win over EP shows they can probably beat anyone in the state when they’re on. However, I’ve consistently put a priority on consistency in my rankings, and the GR loss means Edina has to take a hit, at least for a little while. After watching them against Elk River, I said they needed to find an identity; maybe the EP win will give them that. They’re on the tough side of the Schwan Cup bracket, so we’ll find out in a hurry. They have all week to prepare for it.
This week: Idle
6. Burnsville (3-1-1/1-1-1)
-Took care of some lesser SSC competition this past week, and now march towards a meeting with a mild upset threat. The Schwan Cup Silver will be a good opportunity for them to assert themselves.
This week: Tues at Lakeville South
7. Grand Rapids (7-1/2-1)
-The hardest team to rank right now. The upset win over Edina is huge, but they came back to earth some against Eden Prairie. Beyond that, the record is gaudy, and they do have some decent wins, but nothing overwhelmingly good. Moreover, the schedule from here on out is quite weak compared to other top teams--they face only one other top team (Duluth East), and a handful of teams that might be upset threats (Brainerd, Lakeville North, Bemidji, Moorhead). I could easily see them winding up with the best regular season record in AA. What will that be worth? We’ll have to wait and see. They will probably get buffeted around in the rankings in the coming weeks, as other teams win and lose big games against other top teams.
This week: Tues vs. Brainerd
8. Hill-Murray (4-2/1-2)
-Took care of business this past week and finally got that record back over .500. The achievements thus far may not be all that impressive, but we can’t afford to fall asleep on Hill. The rivalry resumes this Thursday; it’s a good opportunity for the Pioneers to reassert themselves before launching into a difficult holiday tourney.
This week: Thurs at #14 White Bear Lake
9. Minnetonka (4-1/2-1)
-They may have gone down in defeat in their only game this week, but by giving Benilde a great run, they showed that they can’t be forgotten. They seem to have reloaded quite well, despite all the graduations, and will be a serious factor in 6AA and the Lake. Have a busier week against most, and the Blaine game presents us with an interesting matchup against another team that has done well so far despite many graduations.
This week: Tues at Stillwater, Thurs vs. #13 Blaine
10. Apple Valley (6-2/1-2)
-Had a closer loss in the Wayzata game than they did to EP, which is a step in the right direction, and proved that they are much better than North Dakota’s finest, which is not shocking but reassuring. In the Wayzata game they broke up Michaelson and Fasching and put them on different lines; proponent of depth that I am, I think that is the right move, and will help them in the long run.
This week: Thurs vs. Prior Lake
11. Eagan (2-2-1/1-2-1)
-With the loss to Lakeville North this past week, I think this is generous. They do have a tie against Burnsville and a close loss to Edina on the books, but a real elite team would have taken care of business. I’m curious to see how well they can stick with EP this week; if they fail to keep it close, they’ll go dropping further.
This week: vs. #3 Eden Prairie
12. Maple Grove (5-1-1/1-1-1)
-Continue to win, though not exactly in compelling fashion; needing OT to escape against Centennial raises even more questions for a team that’s trying to assert itself atop the section and the conference. It’s a tough next few weeks, with Benilde and then Benilde’s holiday tourney coming up.
This week: vs. #2 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
13. Blaine (4-0-1/1-0-1)
-Put up some strong scores this week to remain undefeated, though they have yet to play a real elite team. That’s about to change, as they take on Minnetonka, and then the Gold Division of the Schwan Cup.
This week: Tues at Anoka, Thurs at #9 Minnetonka
14. White Bear Lake (5-1/0-1)
-A strong week against the SEC has established them as the clear frontrunner in an otherwise tumultuous conference, though it’s hard to push them higher since they lost their only game against a team that is, well, good. But the decisive wins should be good for their confidence as they head into the biggest game of their season; time for these Bears to show their mettle.
This week: vs. #8 Hill-Murray
15. St. Cloud Tech (4-1/1-1)
-You can argue the order, but the top 14 pretty clearly deserve to be ranked. Finding a #15, however, is a different story. I’ve chosen Tech since they played Benilde pretty well and are undefeated beyond that, including a solid win over a Brainerd team that’s generated some hype. They are the frontrunner in 8AA for the time being. They should be able to roll to a pretty strong record thanks to the Central Lakes Conference, though they do play all the other contenders in 8AA (some of them twice), and have a road trip to Duluth East that will be a better gauge of what they’re worth.
This week: Tues vs. Sartell-St. Stephen, Thurs at Alexandria
Beyond That (a long list, with some attempt at order)
Lakeville North (2-2/1-1)
-I was tempted to rank North since they beat a pretty good Eagan team and gave EP a great run a few weeks back, but that loss to Eastview is too nasty a blight at the moment. They’re a team that we should keep an eye on, though, as they’ve shown they can give good teams a serious challenge.
Lakeville South (1-2/0-2)
-Two losses, but they are both to pretty good teams.
Bloomington Jefferson (2-3/0-3)
-Like LVS, an ugly record, but all the losses were expected.
Roseau (2-5/2-3)
-Brutal record, but with two wins against decent teams this past week, they can’t be written off.
Bemidji (7-0-1/0-0-1)
-Opposite scenario of the teams above them: have a very pretty record, but have only played one legit AA opponent, and tied them. A team to keep an eye on.
Eastview (3-2/1-2)
-The win over LVN now looks very nice, and they’ve kept Apple Valley and Burnsville in the ballpark. A team that could sneak up on a few people and cause some problems in the SSC.
Stillwater (3-1-1/0-0-1)
-Cretin’s crash makes their one loss look weak, but otherwise they’ve done an okay job and are the closest to a #2 team the SEC has right now.
Elk River (3-4/1-3)
-That season-opening clunker against Armstrong is hard to ignore, but they’ve beaten Centennial and kept Edina and Grand Rapids reasonably close.
Moorhead (2-1-1/1-1-1)
-Plodding along with very little goal production; the loss to Roseau hurts, but the win over Brainerd pulls them back up some. Next few games could get ugly, with Duluth East and the Spring Lake Park Tourney.
Roseville (5-1/1-1)
-This win over Forest Lake, though close, was a step in the right direction; now the real tests begin.
Centennial (1-4/0-4)
-Another bad record, but the losses are all to teams above them, and forcing OT against MG was a good sign of life.
Holy Angels (1-1/0-1)
-A tight win over Chanhassen and a loss to Roseau are not an encouraging start, but the season is young.
Woodbury (4-4/1-3)
-Took some important steps in the right direction this past week, though they’re in a free-for-all with the SEC teams around them at the moment.
Cretin-Derham Hall (3-3-1/0-2)
-A sufficiently baffling team, coming off a horrid week. Who knows which team will show up.
Forest Lake (1-2-2/0-2-1)
-A rough start, but the close loss to GR reminds us they have some talent and shouldn’t be completely ignored.
Brainerd (6-2/0-2)
-At some point they’ll have to beat another 8AA contender if they really want to be considered here.
Don’t expect such a long list of bubble teams in the future. That’s basically a list of everyone I plan to remotely consider for a ranking this year, barring some dramatic shift.
It’s a complicated week--I hope this generates some good discussion, and Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all.
We have a short week ahead of us, as most teams have only one game, but there are a decent number of significant matchups. Next week we’ll reset and put out previews of the holiday tournaments, which will probably cause some major shifts and give us the basis we’ll be working with for the rest of the season.
The second record listed after each team’s W-L record is its record against a group of about 25 other top teams.
1. Wayzata (8-0/6-0)
-Continue to pile up the wins against other good teams, and as others fall around them, they find themselves pushed to the top. Their games this past week were both against common opponents with Eden Prairie, and they did a little worse against both in the wins. They do deserve to be #1 right now, but it’s a fairly tenuous #1 as far as I’m concerned. They shouldn’t be challenged this week, though.
This week: Thurs vs. Roseville
2. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (5-0/3-0)
-AA’s other undefeated elite team. I’m not entirely convinced they belong this high, but with two big wins over other top teams now on the books, we’ll go with it for now. Their holiday tourney should give us a more definitive answer, though they face a pretty good team this week that could take them down if they’re not careful.
This week: Tues at #12 Maple Grove
3. Eden Prairie (5-1/4-1)
-Yes, they lost, but if a team is going to lose, they might as well do it in overtime, on the road against a very talented rival, and in a game where the reffing does not fit their style. They looked like a well-oiled machine in the Edina Tournament; the 2nd line has stepped up, though their 3rd line was not on the level of Edina’s. Face a potentially difficult opponent this week in preparation for a showdown against Benilde in St. Louis Park in two weeks.
This week: Wed at #11 Eagan.
4. Duluth East (5-1/2-1)
-Methodically took care of their two unranked opponents this past week, and have another decent-but-beatable team ahead of them this weekend. After that we’ll get a chance to see them in action against other elite teams.
This week: Tues at Moorhead
5. Edina (5-2/3-2)
-It was a roller coaster of a Holiday Classic for the tournament hosts, as they crashed to the ground against Grand Rapids, then beat Eden Prairie on the final night. Clearly, the win over EP shows they can probably beat anyone in the state when they’re on. However, I’ve consistently put a priority on consistency in my rankings, and the GR loss means Edina has to take a hit, at least for a little while. After watching them against Elk River, I said they needed to find an identity; maybe the EP win will give them that. They’re on the tough side of the Schwan Cup bracket, so we’ll find out in a hurry. They have all week to prepare for it.
This week: Idle
6. Burnsville (3-1-1/1-1-1)
-Took care of some lesser SSC competition this past week, and now march towards a meeting with a mild upset threat. The Schwan Cup Silver will be a good opportunity for them to assert themselves.
This week: Tues at Lakeville South
7. Grand Rapids (7-1/2-1)
-The hardest team to rank right now. The upset win over Edina is huge, but they came back to earth some against Eden Prairie. Beyond that, the record is gaudy, and they do have some decent wins, but nothing overwhelmingly good. Moreover, the schedule from here on out is quite weak compared to other top teams--they face only one other top team (Duluth East), and a handful of teams that might be upset threats (Brainerd, Lakeville North, Bemidji, Moorhead). I could easily see them winding up with the best regular season record in AA. What will that be worth? We’ll have to wait and see. They will probably get buffeted around in the rankings in the coming weeks, as other teams win and lose big games against other top teams.
This week: Tues vs. Brainerd
8. Hill-Murray (4-2/1-2)
-Took care of business this past week and finally got that record back over .500. The achievements thus far may not be all that impressive, but we can’t afford to fall asleep on Hill. The rivalry resumes this Thursday; it’s a good opportunity for the Pioneers to reassert themselves before launching into a difficult holiday tourney.
This week: Thurs at #14 White Bear Lake
9. Minnetonka (4-1/2-1)
-They may have gone down in defeat in their only game this week, but by giving Benilde a great run, they showed that they can’t be forgotten. They seem to have reloaded quite well, despite all the graduations, and will be a serious factor in 6AA and the Lake. Have a busier week against most, and the Blaine game presents us with an interesting matchup against another team that has done well so far despite many graduations.
This week: Tues at Stillwater, Thurs vs. #13 Blaine
10. Apple Valley (6-2/1-2)
-Had a closer loss in the Wayzata game than they did to EP, which is a step in the right direction, and proved that they are much better than North Dakota’s finest, which is not shocking but reassuring. In the Wayzata game they broke up Michaelson and Fasching and put them on different lines; proponent of depth that I am, I think that is the right move, and will help them in the long run.
This week: Thurs vs. Prior Lake
11. Eagan (2-2-1/1-2-1)
-With the loss to Lakeville North this past week, I think this is generous. They do have a tie against Burnsville and a close loss to Edina on the books, but a real elite team would have taken care of business. I’m curious to see how well they can stick with EP this week; if they fail to keep it close, they’ll go dropping further.
This week: vs. #3 Eden Prairie
12. Maple Grove (5-1-1/1-1-1)
-Continue to win, though not exactly in compelling fashion; needing OT to escape against Centennial raises even more questions for a team that’s trying to assert itself atop the section and the conference. It’s a tough next few weeks, with Benilde and then Benilde’s holiday tourney coming up.
This week: vs. #2 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
13. Blaine (4-0-1/1-0-1)
-Put up some strong scores this week to remain undefeated, though they have yet to play a real elite team. That’s about to change, as they take on Minnetonka, and then the Gold Division of the Schwan Cup.
This week: Tues at Anoka, Thurs at #9 Minnetonka
14. White Bear Lake (5-1/0-1)
-A strong week against the SEC has established them as the clear frontrunner in an otherwise tumultuous conference, though it’s hard to push them higher since they lost their only game against a team that is, well, good. But the decisive wins should be good for their confidence as they head into the biggest game of their season; time for these Bears to show their mettle.
This week: vs. #8 Hill-Murray
15. St. Cloud Tech (4-1/1-1)
-You can argue the order, but the top 14 pretty clearly deserve to be ranked. Finding a #15, however, is a different story. I’ve chosen Tech since they played Benilde pretty well and are undefeated beyond that, including a solid win over a Brainerd team that’s generated some hype. They are the frontrunner in 8AA for the time being. They should be able to roll to a pretty strong record thanks to the Central Lakes Conference, though they do play all the other contenders in 8AA (some of them twice), and have a road trip to Duluth East that will be a better gauge of what they’re worth.
This week: Tues vs. Sartell-St. Stephen, Thurs at Alexandria
Beyond That (a long list, with some attempt at order)
Lakeville North (2-2/1-1)
-I was tempted to rank North since they beat a pretty good Eagan team and gave EP a great run a few weeks back, but that loss to Eastview is too nasty a blight at the moment. They’re a team that we should keep an eye on, though, as they’ve shown they can give good teams a serious challenge.
Lakeville South (1-2/0-2)
-Two losses, but they are both to pretty good teams.
Bloomington Jefferson (2-3/0-3)
-Like LVS, an ugly record, but all the losses were expected.
Roseau (2-5/2-3)
-Brutal record, but with two wins against decent teams this past week, they can’t be written off.
Bemidji (7-0-1/0-0-1)
-Opposite scenario of the teams above them: have a very pretty record, but have only played one legit AA opponent, and tied them. A team to keep an eye on.
Eastview (3-2/1-2)
-The win over LVN now looks very nice, and they’ve kept Apple Valley and Burnsville in the ballpark. A team that could sneak up on a few people and cause some problems in the SSC.
Stillwater (3-1-1/0-0-1)
-Cretin’s crash makes their one loss look weak, but otherwise they’ve done an okay job and are the closest to a #2 team the SEC has right now.
Elk River (3-4/1-3)
-That season-opening clunker against Armstrong is hard to ignore, but they’ve beaten Centennial and kept Edina and Grand Rapids reasonably close.
Moorhead (2-1-1/1-1-1)
-Plodding along with very little goal production; the loss to Roseau hurts, but the win over Brainerd pulls them back up some. Next few games could get ugly, with Duluth East and the Spring Lake Park Tourney.
Roseville (5-1/1-1)
-This win over Forest Lake, though close, was a step in the right direction; now the real tests begin.
Centennial (1-4/0-4)
-Another bad record, but the losses are all to teams above them, and forcing OT against MG was a good sign of life.
Holy Angels (1-1/0-1)
-A tight win over Chanhassen and a loss to Roseau are not an encouraging start, but the season is young.
Woodbury (4-4/1-3)
-Took some important steps in the right direction this past week, though they’re in a free-for-all with the SEC teams around them at the moment.
Cretin-Derham Hall (3-3-1/0-2)
-A sufficiently baffling team, coming off a horrid week. Who knows which team will show up.
Forest Lake (1-2-2/0-2-1)
-A rough start, but the close loss to GR reminds us they have some talent and shouldn’t be completely ignored.
Brainerd (6-2/0-2)
-At some point they’ll have to beat another 8AA contender if they really want to be considered here.
Don’t expect such a long list of bubble teams in the future. That’s basically a list of everyone I plan to remotely consider for a ranking this year, barring some dramatic shift.
It’s a complicated week--I hope this generates some good discussion, and Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all.
