AA Rankings for 1/2/11
Posted: Sun Jan 02, 2011 10:36 am
Happy New Year to everyone!
Never before have the rankings been such a mess. Here is my best attempt. It was an odd process…I found myself doing the bubble first, then working backwards, often changing things immediately after writing them. But I’m reasonably satisfied with the results. There are a few big games this week, but not a lot, so we might be stuck in this mess for a little while.
The records are a) the team’s overall record, and b) the team’s record against the AA top 25 and top handful in A.
1. Eden Prairie (8-2/7-2)
-Fortunately, the top spot is relatively straightforward. EP won the St. Louis Park tournament with some authority, and while they are clearly not untouchable, they have done enough so far, especially for a team whose easiest game to date has been against Bloomington Jefferson, of all teams. They are also the only team that has consistently shown an ability to get comfortable wins against other top teams. Difficult as it may be to believe, things get even harder over the next few weeks--two top-10 opponents are on the radar, along with two other top-20 teams…and then the Lake season starts.
This week: Thurs at #4 Hill-Murray
2. Edina (6-2-2/5-2-2)
-If they’d beaten Blaine, I would have made this call without much doubt. Instead, it feels almost stupid. But there simply is no good choice for #2 in this state right now. I considered every team I have 2-8 here. So why Edina? Their losses have been tight, and to very good teams. They have piled up a lot of quality wins, including one over #1. A potentially interesting game against Holy Angels looms, along with the rare weak opponent on this schedule.
This week: Tues vs. St. Louis Park, Fri at Holy Angels
3. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (8-1/5-1)
-Here we have a case in which the logical arguments disagree with Karl’s gut, and it troubles him. After watching EP steamroll them for two periods, I remain unconvinced that they really belong up here (see last week’s rankings for details). Also, those two consolation bracket wins were a bit tight for comfort, in looking at what other top teams did to their opponents in those games. But facts are facts, and BSM has beaten Hill, and also Maple Grove. For now, I will go with the logical arguments and add asterisks where I feel they are necessary. No good tests for this week, though Edina looms on the horizon.
This week: Tues vs. Robbinsdale Cooper, Sat at Chisago Lakes
4. Hill-Murray (7-2-1/3-2-1)
-The Hill we’ve been waiting for showed up in the Schwan Cup Gold this week, as they rattled off an impressive opening win, an acceptable second round tie, and a comeback to take the title. They can put an exclamation point on this climb this Thursday, as they host Eden Prairie. If they do so, I’ll feel pretty comfortable writing off the early season struggles to growing pains. If not, it means they’ll still have some work to do.
This week: Thurs vs. #1 Eden Prairie, Sat vs. South St. Paul
5. Duluth East (8-2/5-2)
-Gave Edina a great run, then did a passable job in beating the top A teams to take the consolation title in the Schwan Cup Gold. I’ll say it, too…the closeness of their two losses and the comfortable margins in nearly all of their wins give them a pretty good argument for going higher, if we follow certain strings of logic. But for now I will hold off--though they have a lot of good wins, they need a signature win to really cap it off and prove definitively that they belong near the very top.
This week: Mon vs. Duluth Central
6. Wayzata (10-2/5-2)
-This may seem like an overreaction, but their results have been growing gradually less impressive for a while now, and even their wins at the beginning were tight. They have lots of nice wins, yes, but their losses are also to teams that were supposed to be way behind them. The results fuel my general sense of doubt about this program. They face a potential trap game this week, against an opponent that already has some surprises to its name.
This week: Tues at Lakeville North
7. Eagan (6-2-1/2-2-1)
-Did what they needed to in the SSP Premier Tourney; achieving such predictability is a minor miracle in this week’s rankings. One could argue this team belongs higher, but one could argue a lot of teams are in the wrong places this week. I have them here because they actually do have a number of common opponents with Grand Rapids, and the results of that comparison aren’t greatly in Eagan’s favor. Need more games against good teams; this week’s contest againsts against Tonka (a make-up) and Apple Valley could help in that regard.
This week: Tues vs. #10 Minnetonka, Thurs vs. #12 Apple Valley, Sat vs. Eastview
8. Grand Rapids (10-1-1/4-1-1)
-Their performance in the North-South Classic was not exemplary; a tie against Lakeville North, though understandable, is tough for a team with a weak schedule, and needing OT to get past Mahtomedi is also reason for a little doubt. But it’s hard not to look at the body of work and be very impressed. The schedule involves purely northern teams from here on out.
This week: Fri vs. Duluth Marshall
9. Maple Grove (7-3-1/2-3-1)
-Here we have a team that beat last week’s #1, yet got blown out badly by this week’s #1, on back-to-back days. Even though they have no bad losses, they do have a certain inconsistency to them, as they’ve had to scrape by a few teams that other top teams should and have beaten handily (Anoka, Centennial), yet have proven they can run with anyone (tight loss to BSM, tight loss then win over Wayzata). Now they head into the NWSC-heavy portion of the schedule; this year, that means they should be able to pile up a number of wins.
This week: Thurs vs. Coon Rapids
10. Minnetonka (6-3-1/3-3-1)
-This is where these rankings start feeling flat-out cruel…a team that just finished 2nd in the Schwan Cup Gold winds up 10th. Problem is, they had a relatively easy path to get there. It’s hard to whack a team that gave Benilde and Hill such good games, but in the end I just don’t think they’ve shown the potential of some of the other teams, and that loss to Stillwater now sticks out like a sore thumb. Two games this week; I suspect they'll be more close ones for the Skippers.
This week: Tues at #7 Eagan, Thurs vs. #15 Moorhead
11. Blaine (6-1-3/2-1-3)
-Further cruelty to a team that deserves a better fate, based on what they’ve done. The Edina tie in particular grabbed my attention, and the start to this season is quite the testament to a program and coaching staff that lost practically everyone off a somewhat thin team from last year, and whose incoming Bantam As were nothing special. But we have to draw the line somewhere--they couldn’t beat Minnetonka, who’s right ahead of them, in two tries; and while ties are nice, sooner or later they need a big win. They now launch into the NWSC schedule, which is pretty forgiving for them in the early going.
This week: Tues vs. Champlin Park, Thurs vs. Andover
12. Apple Valley (8-2/0-2)
-As I suggested last week, this is a very hard team to rank right now; they’ve played the fewest top teams of anyone in the top 15. Given that those two games were losses, AV is gone from the top ten right now. Heartless, perhaps, but given the results achieved by the likes of Tonka and Blaine, it had to happen. The Eagan game will be an important barometer--if they win, they’ll go shooting back up, and a loss shouldn’t hurt them much, if at all. But for now, a team had to drop, so I picked the one that has no real quality wins, put up good-but-not-great challenges to the big two they’ve played, and whose depth I question.
This week: Thurs at #7 Eagan, Sat vs. Bloomington Kennedy
13. Burnsville (5-2-2/2-2-1)
-After a hot start to the season, the Blaze seem to be cooling off; they went into the Schwan Cup Silver the odds-on favorites and wound up playing Rogers in the Toilet Bowl. It’ll take some time to recoup the damage; they are still a pretty dangerous team, but in the unforgiving, wide open AA this year, their recent struggles are a big hit. They have one potentially difficult game this week.
This week: Thurs vs. Prior Lake, Sat vs. Lakeville North
14. White Bear Lake (6-4/2-4)
-Finally, an easy team to rank--they’ve beaten all the teams behind them, but have lost to all of the teams ahead of them, and usually by convincing margins in both directions. The Breck win was a nice way to save some face and prove they can handle an above average team. They play nothing but conference games from here on out, the first of which might be the biggest--the trip to Stillwater has major implications for 4AA.
This week: Thurs at Stillwater, Sat at Mounds View
15. Moorhead (3-3-1/1-3-1)
-The Spuds win this week’s lottery for the #15 spot. Clearly, their achievements to date don’t match many of the other top teams, but they’ve got that win over Wayzata, and they hung with Eden Prairie well enough to suggest that they’re worthy of consideration. No real bad losses on the schedule, either. They’ll have to work to keep the spot, with two of the top 8A contenders on the docket this week, along with a road trip to Minnetonka.
This week: Tues vs. East Grand Forks, Thurs at Thief River Falls, Sat at #10 Minnetonka
The Next Ten
Elk River (5-6/1-5)
-Season-opening debacle against Armstrong aside, they’ve been a pretty typical Elk River team of the past few years--they’ve beaten the teams they’re ahead of, but are clearly not quite up there with the elite. Scores suggest they are headed in the right direction, at least for now.
Holy Angels (4-2/2-2)
-No team did more for its stock this past week than the Stars, who jumped back onto the map with an authoritative performance in the Schwan Cup Silver. There are still a lot of questions to be answered as their schedule heats up; they’ve got two Missota games ahead of them in the next seven days, but they’ve also got a huge game against Edina in there.
Lakeville North (5-3-1/1-1-1)
-Inconsistent so far; they have a couple of weak losses, but they’ve also got a win over Eagan and a tie with Grand Rapids. We’ll see just how far they can ride Lindgren. Get another shot at a top team this week with Wayzata.
Roseau (5-5/2-3)
-After the 0-5 start, the Rams are back to .500, and a couple of their early wins look a little better now. Their next three games are against teams in the 8A mix, which could be interesting.
Cloquet (8-3/1-2)
-While the rest of the state focused on the big metro area tournaments, a team playing up in Duluth went on a nice little run and worked their way back into the discussion. They’ve lost their two games against upper-level competition, but it’s hard to tell how high their ceiling is at this point. A team worth keeping an eye on.
St. Cloud Tech (8-2/0-1)
-For a team with a weak schedule, a loss to Little Falls really hurts. Huge game ahead of them on Tuesday vs. Bemidji.
Bemidji (9-1-1/0-1-1)
-Remain winless in their tries against other teams in consideration for a ranking, and will need to change that in the immediate future to prove they belong in the conversation. The game against Tech gives them some sort of opportunity.
Roseville (5-2-3/0-2-3)
-Tied all three of their Schwan Cup Silver games, which is something of a feat. They’re clearly a competitive team, but like so many down in this part of the rankings, they will have to show they can actually beat another good team.
Stillwater (5-3-1/2-3)
-Their struggles against Cretin are single-handedly dragging down an otherwise respectable start to the year. They’ve got that nice win over Tonka, but their Schwan Cup was not a step in the right direction.
Cretin-Derham Hall (5-5-1/3-3-1)
-Made up for their bad previous few weeks (to some degree) with a couple of nice wins in the Silver before dropping the final to a good Holy Angels team. Completely unpredictable, but still somewhat dangerous. It’ll be interesting to see how they handle the SEC.
Lakeville South (2-4-1/0-4-1)
-Bad record, but a lot of that has to do with the opposition they’ve faced. Now that they get into the SSC, they have a chance to prove if they’re really in the picture or not. Key game with Jefferson on Thursday.
Sections
1AA
(18) Lakeville North
(25) Lakeville South
-At this point, it looks like a 2-team, 1-city race. Lindgren’s performances against top teams have North as the favorite right now, though one bad night in sections could wreck it all. Time to find out what South is made of, too. The two meet for the first of 2 games on January 13th.
2AA
2 Edina
(17) Holy Angels
13 Burnsville
Bloomington Jefferson
-A decent amount of movement in this one, even though the order hasn’t really changed--Edina remains on top, but Burnsville and Jefferson have slid down, while AHA is on the rise again. AHA and Edina have an important seeding game ahead of them this week; Burnsville and Jefferson play twice, but not until February.
3AA
7 Eagan
12 Apple Valley
(24) Cretin
-This week’s game between AV and Eagan is the first of two huge matchups. Beyond them, there is a long tier of potentially troublesome teams, in the following rough order: Cretin, Woodbury, Hastings, East Ridge, Eastview. I’m not sure that any of them can compete with the top two, but it’ll make for an interesting race for the lower seeds.
4AA
4 Hill-Murray
14 White Bear Lake
(23) Stillwater
(22) Roseville
-While other sections get jumbled up, things look rather familiar in 4AA. Once again, it’s Hill’s to lose, and the chase pack hasn’t proven it’s up to the task. They have some time, of course…we’ll see if they can do anything with it. WBL and Stillwater meet for the inside track for the #2 seed this week, though they will meet again; WBL also has 2 meetings with Roseville looming, and Roseville will get a shot at revenge against the Ponies.
5AA
9 Maple Grove
11 Blaine
Centennial
-A two-team race at the moment, though Centennial’s adequate performances in the St. Louis Park suggest they may still be able to make things interesting for whoever ends up with the 2-seed. That will likely be decided on January 27th, when MG and Blaine meet again.
6AA
1 Eden Prairie
3 Benilde
6 Wayzata
10 Minnetonka
-The seeding war has begun, and the early results suggest that BSM will be sandwiched between Eden Prairie and Minnetonka. The three Lake teams all have two games left against each of the others, though, so we can’t really conclude anything yet. Expect lots of moving around in the next two months.
7AA
5 Duluth East
8 Grand Rapids
(16) Elk River
(20) Cloquet
-Two familiar faces are creeping back into the picture; though they are a combined 0-3 against the top two (by decent margins each time), they can’t quite be written off, and we shouldn’t completely forget about Forest Lake, either. But this is a 2-team race for the top seed, which should be decided on January 13th in Duluth. ER and CEC do not meet during the regular season, so the 3-seed may come down to things like record and common opponents.
8AA
(19) Roseau
15 Moorhead
(21) St. Cloud Tech
(22) Bemidji
Brainerd
-Call me a cynic, but with Roseau apparently rounding into shape and Moorhead proving it can compete with the big boys, I’m back to putting the familiar faces in the top two slots. Nothing is assured at this point, and Tech, Bemidji, and maybe Brainerd will all have their chances to prove themselves. But they will need to prove they can beat those top two to really convince me, and they haven’t done that yet. They will have a number of them towards the end of this month and the beginning of February.
That should give you some good discussion fodder…
Never before have the rankings been such a mess. Here is my best attempt. It was an odd process…I found myself doing the bubble first, then working backwards, often changing things immediately after writing them. But I’m reasonably satisfied with the results. There are a few big games this week, but not a lot, so we might be stuck in this mess for a little while.
The records are a) the team’s overall record, and b) the team’s record against the AA top 25 and top handful in A.
1. Eden Prairie (8-2/7-2)
-Fortunately, the top spot is relatively straightforward. EP won the St. Louis Park tournament with some authority, and while they are clearly not untouchable, they have done enough so far, especially for a team whose easiest game to date has been against Bloomington Jefferson, of all teams. They are also the only team that has consistently shown an ability to get comfortable wins against other top teams. Difficult as it may be to believe, things get even harder over the next few weeks--two top-10 opponents are on the radar, along with two other top-20 teams…and then the Lake season starts.
This week: Thurs at #4 Hill-Murray
2. Edina (6-2-2/5-2-2)
-If they’d beaten Blaine, I would have made this call without much doubt. Instead, it feels almost stupid. But there simply is no good choice for #2 in this state right now. I considered every team I have 2-8 here. So why Edina? Their losses have been tight, and to very good teams. They have piled up a lot of quality wins, including one over #1. A potentially interesting game against Holy Angels looms, along with the rare weak opponent on this schedule.
This week: Tues vs. St. Louis Park, Fri at Holy Angels
3. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (8-1/5-1)
-Here we have a case in which the logical arguments disagree with Karl’s gut, and it troubles him. After watching EP steamroll them for two periods, I remain unconvinced that they really belong up here (see last week’s rankings for details). Also, those two consolation bracket wins were a bit tight for comfort, in looking at what other top teams did to their opponents in those games. But facts are facts, and BSM has beaten Hill, and also Maple Grove. For now, I will go with the logical arguments and add asterisks where I feel they are necessary. No good tests for this week, though Edina looms on the horizon.
This week: Tues vs. Robbinsdale Cooper, Sat at Chisago Lakes
4. Hill-Murray (7-2-1/3-2-1)
-The Hill we’ve been waiting for showed up in the Schwan Cup Gold this week, as they rattled off an impressive opening win, an acceptable second round tie, and a comeback to take the title. They can put an exclamation point on this climb this Thursday, as they host Eden Prairie. If they do so, I’ll feel pretty comfortable writing off the early season struggles to growing pains. If not, it means they’ll still have some work to do.
This week: Thurs vs. #1 Eden Prairie, Sat vs. South St. Paul
5. Duluth East (8-2/5-2)
-Gave Edina a great run, then did a passable job in beating the top A teams to take the consolation title in the Schwan Cup Gold. I’ll say it, too…the closeness of their two losses and the comfortable margins in nearly all of their wins give them a pretty good argument for going higher, if we follow certain strings of logic. But for now I will hold off--though they have a lot of good wins, they need a signature win to really cap it off and prove definitively that they belong near the very top.
This week: Mon vs. Duluth Central
6. Wayzata (10-2/5-2)
-This may seem like an overreaction, but their results have been growing gradually less impressive for a while now, and even their wins at the beginning were tight. They have lots of nice wins, yes, but their losses are also to teams that were supposed to be way behind them. The results fuel my general sense of doubt about this program. They face a potential trap game this week, against an opponent that already has some surprises to its name.
This week: Tues at Lakeville North
7. Eagan (6-2-1/2-2-1)
-Did what they needed to in the SSP Premier Tourney; achieving such predictability is a minor miracle in this week’s rankings. One could argue this team belongs higher, but one could argue a lot of teams are in the wrong places this week. I have them here because they actually do have a number of common opponents with Grand Rapids, and the results of that comparison aren’t greatly in Eagan’s favor. Need more games against good teams; this week’s contest againsts against Tonka (a make-up) and Apple Valley could help in that regard.
This week: Tues vs. #10 Minnetonka, Thurs vs. #12 Apple Valley, Sat vs. Eastview
8. Grand Rapids (10-1-1/4-1-1)
-Their performance in the North-South Classic was not exemplary; a tie against Lakeville North, though understandable, is tough for a team with a weak schedule, and needing OT to get past Mahtomedi is also reason for a little doubt. But it’s hard not to look at the body of work and be very impressed. The schedule involves purely northern teams from here on out.
This week: Fri vs. Duluth Marshall
9. Maple Grove (7-3-1/2-3-1)
-Here we have a team that beat last week’s #1, yet got blown out badly by this week’s #1, on back-to-back days. Even though they have no bad losses, they do have a certain inconsistency to them, as they’ve had to scrape by a few teams that other top teams should and have beaten handily (Anoka, Centennial), yet have proven they can run with anyone (tight loss to BSM, tight loss then win over Wayzata). Now they head into the NWSC-heavy portion of the schedule; this year, that means they should be able to pile up a number of wins.
This week: Thurs vs. Coon Rapids
10. Minnetonka (6-3-1/3-3-1)
-This is where these rankings start feeling flat-out cruel…a team that just finished 2nd in the Schwan Cup Gold winds up 10th. Problem is, they had a relatively easy path to get there. It’s hard to whack a team that gave Benilde and Hill such good games, but in the end I just don’t think they’ve shown the potential of some of the other teams, and that loss to Stillwater now sticks out like a sore thumb. Two games this week; I suspect they'll be more close ones for the Skippers.
This week: Tues at #7 Eagan, Thurs vs. #15 Moorhead
11. Blaine (6-1-3/2-1-3)
-Further cruelty to a team that deserves a better fate, based on what they’ve done. The Edina tie in particular grabbed my attention, and the start to this season is quite the testament to a program and coaching staff that lost practically everyone off a somewhat thin team from last year, and whose incoming Bantam As were nothing special. But we have to draw the line somewhere--they couldn’t beat Minnetonka, who’s right ahead of them, in two tries; and while ties are nice, sooner or later they need a big win. They now launch into the NWSC schedule, which is pretty forgiving for them in the early going.
This week: Tues vs. Champlin Park, Thurs vs. Andover
12. Apple Valley (8-2/0-2)
-As I suggested last week, this is a very hard team to rank right now; they’ve played the fewest top teams of anyone in the top 15. Given that those two games were losses, AV is gone from the top ten right now. Heartless, perhaps, but given the results achieved by the likes of Tonka and Blaine, it had to happen. The Eagan game will be an important barometer--if they win, they’ll go shooting back up, and a loss shouldn’t hurt them much, if at all. But for now, a team had to drop, so I picked the one that has no real quality wins, put up good-but-not-great challenges to the big two they’ve played, and whose depth I question.
This week: Thurs at #7 Eagan, Sat vs. Bloomington Kennedy
13. Burnsville (5-2-2/2-2-1)
-After a hot start to the season, the Blaze seem to be cooling off; they went into the Schwan Cup Silver the odds-on favorites and wound up playing Rogers in the Toilet Bowl. It’ll take some time to recoup the damage; they are still a pretty dangerous team, but in the unforgiving, wide open AA this year, their recent struggles are a big hit. They have one potentially difficult game this week.
This week: Thurs vs. Prior Lake, Sat vs. Lakeville North
14. White Bear Lake (6-4/2-4)
-Finally, an easy team to rank--they’ve beaten all the teams behind them, but have lost to all of the teams ahead of them, and usually by convincing margins in both directions. The Breck win was a nice way to save some face and prove they can handle an above average team. They play nothing but conference games from here on out, the first of which might be the biggest--the trip to Stillwater has major implications for 4AA.
This week: Thurs at Stillwater, Sat at Mounds View
15. Moorhead (3-3-1/1-3-1)
-The Spuds win this week’s lottery for the #15 spot. Clearly, their achievements to date don’t match many of the other top teams, but they’ve got that win over Wayzata, and they hung with Eden Prairie well enough to suggest that they’re worthy of consideration. No real bad losses on the schedule, either. They’ll have to work to keep the spot, with two of the top 8A contenders on the docket this week, along with a road trip to Minnetonka.
This week: Tues vs. East Grand Forks, Thurs at Thief River Falls, Sat at #10 Minnetonka
The Next Ten
Elk River (5-6/1-5)
-Season-opening debacle against Armstrong aside, they’ve been a pretty typical Elk River team of the past few years--they’ve beaten the teams they’re ahead of, but are clearly not quite up there with the elite. Scores suggest they are headed in the right direction, at least for now.
Holy Angels (4-2/2-2)
-No team did more for its stock this past week than the Stars, who jumped back onto the map with an authoritative performance in the Schwan Cup Silver. There are still a lot of questions to be answered as their schedule heats up; they’ve got two Missota games ahead of them in the next seven days, but they’ve also got a huge game against Edina in there.
Lakeville North (5-3-1/1-1-1)
-Inconsistent so far; they have a couple of weak losses, but they’ve also got a win over Eagan and a tie with Grand Rapids. We’ll see just how far they can ride Lindgren. Get another shot at a top team this week with Wayzata.
Roseau (5-5/2-3)
-After the 0-5 start, the Rams are back to .500, and a couple of their early wins look a little better now. Their next three games are against teams in the 8A mix, which could be interesting.
Cloquet (8-3/1-2)
-While the rest of the state focused on the big metro area tournaments, a team playing up in Duluth went on a nice little run and worked their way back into the discussion. They’ve lost their two games against upper-level competition, but it’s hard to tell how high their ceiling is at this point. A team worth keeping an eye on.
St. Cloud Tech (8-2/0-1)
-For a team with a weak schedule, a loss to Little Falls really hurts. Huge game ahead of them on Tuesday vs. Bemidji.
Bemidji (9-1-1/0-1-1)
-Remain winless in their tries against other teams in consideration for a ranking, and will need to change that in the immediate future to prove they belong in the conversation. The game against Tech gives them some sort of opportunity.
Roseville (5-2-3/0-2-3)
-Tied all three of their Schwan Cup Silver games, which is something of a feat. They’re clearly a competitive team, but like so many down in this part of the rankings, they will have to show they can actually beat another good team.
Stillwater (5-3-1/2-3)
-Their struggles against Cretin are single-handedly dragging down an otherwise respectable start to the year. They’ve got that nice win over Tonka, but their Schwan Cup was not a step in the right direction.
Cretin-Derham Hall (5-5-1/3-3-1)
-Made up for their bad previous few weeks (to some degree) with a couple of nice wins in the Silver before dropping the final to a good Holy Angels team. Completely unpredictable, but still somewhat dangerous. It’ll be interesting to see how they handle the SEC.
Lakeville South (2-4-1/0-4-1)
-Bad record, but a lot of that has to do with the opposition they’ve faced. Now that they get into the SSC, they have a chance to prove if they’re really in the picture or not. Key game with Jefferson on Thursday.
Sections
1AA
(18) Lakeville North
(25) Lakeville South
-At this point, it looks like a 2-team, 1-city race. Lindgren’s performances against top teams have North as the favorite right now, though one bad night in sections could wreck it all. Time to find out what South is made of, too. The two meet for the first of 2 games on January 13th.
2AA
2 Edina
(17) Holy Angels
13 Burnsville
Bloomington Jefferson
-A decent amount of movement in this one, even though the order hasn’t really changed--Edina remains on top, but Burnsville and Jefferson have slid down, while AHA is on the rise again. AHA and Edina have an important seeding game ahead of them this week; Burnsville and Jefferson play twice, but not until February.
3AA
7 Eagan
12 Apple Valley
(24) Cretin
-This week’s game between AV and Eagan is the first of two huge matchups. Beyond them, there is a long tier of potentially troublesome teams, in the following rough order: Cretin, Woodbury, Hastings, East Ridge, Eastview. I’m not sure that any of them can compete with the top two, but it’ll make for an interesting race for the lower seeds.
4AA
4 Hill-Murray
14 White Bear Lake
(23) Stillwater
(22) Roseville
-While other sections get jumbled up, things look rather familiar in 4AA. Once again, it’s Hill’s to lose, and the chase pack hasn’t proven it’s up to the task. They have some time, of course…we’ll see if they can do anything with it. WBL and Stillwater meet for the inside track for the #2 seed this week, though they will meet again; WBL also has 2 meetings with Roseville looming, and Roseville will get a shot at revenge against the Ponies.
5AA
9 Maple Grove
11 Blaine
Centennial
-A two-team race at the moment, though Centennial’s adequate performances in the St. Louis Park suggest they may still be able to make things interesting for whoever ends up with the 2-seed. That will likely be decided on January 27th, when MG and Blaine meet again.
6AA
1 Eden Prairie
3 Benilde
6 Wayzata
10 Minnetonka
-The seeding war has begun, and the early results suggest that BSM will be sandwiched between Eden Prairie and Minnetonka. The three Lake teams all have two games left against each of the others, though, so we can’t really conclude anything yet. Expect lots of moving around in the next two months.
7AA
5 Duluth East
8 Grand Rapids
(16) Elk River
(20) Cloquet
-Two familiar faces are creeping back into the picture; though they are a combined 0-3 against the top two (by decent margins each time), they can’t quite be written off, and we shouldn’t completely forget about Forest Lake, either. But this is a 2-team race for the top seed, which should be decided on January 13th in Duluth. ER and CEC do not meet during the regular season, so the 3-seed may come down to things like record and common opponents.
8AA
(19) Roseau
15 Moorhead
(21) St. Cloud Tech
(22) Bemidji
Brainerd
-Call me a cynic, but with Roseau apparently rounding into shape and Moorhead proving it can compete with the big boys, I’m back to putting the familiar faces in the top two slots. Nothing is assured at this point, and Tech, Bemidji, and maybe Brainerd will all have their chances to prove themselves. But they will need to prove they can beat those top two to really convince me, and they haven’t done that yet. They will have a number of them towards the end of this month and the beginning of February.
That should give you some good discussion fodder…
