AA Rankings for 1/16/11
Posted: Sun Jan 16, 2011 11:12 am
Time for another week of AA ranking roulette! This week, sorting out the very top was the biggest challenge. It was also a good week for a lot of bubble teams, and the list of contenders seems to be growing rather than shrinking.
The big news this upcoming week is the start of the Lake Conference season, which pits four of the top seven teams against one another over the next month. This leads to many important questions as to how we value losses within the conference, and especially in how we compare them to the non-Lake top teams (Hill-Murray is in good position to run the table, DE may lose a game or two but should be favored in all of their remaining games, and BSM faces Shattuck and two or three other decent but beatable teams along with their NSC cakewalk).
The second record listed after the team name is their record against the other teams currently in the top 15
1. Eden Prairie (10-3/6-3)
-There’s not much shame in going down on the road in Duluth in OT, but it’s another narrow loss for the Eagles, which creates a conundrum at the top. But in the end, I look at their brutal schedule and their very narrow losses, and I can’t find it in me to drop them from the top spot. They’re probably the most tenuous #1 I’ve had since I started the rankings, but their losses have all been tight games on the road, and in a crazy year, all their big wins have to count for something. It’s becoming cliché to say so, but they’ve got another big week ahead of them, with two very dangerous opponents on the docket.
This week: Thurs vs. #14 Holy Angels, Sat vs. #7 Wayzata
2. Duluth East (12-2/4-2)
-No team had a bigger week than the Hounds, who put together hard-fought victories over section challenger Grand Rapids and #1 Eden Prairie. The defense, which was a problem back in their earlier games against top teams, now looks much stronger. They have a decent case for #1, but I can’t bring myself to put them up there. They can’t afford to rest on their laurels, as they face a potential trap game in Apple Valley, then a decent St. Cloud Tech team.
This week: Tues at Apple Valley, Sat vs. St. Cloud Tech
3. Edina (9-2-2/6-2-1)
-Continued their string of narrow wins by knocking off Benilde, and now things get really interesting, as they take on a Wayzata team that’s given them trouble lately and then face Minnetonka for the first time since the state title game last year. Some people have plugged this team for #1--they have beaten the two teams ahead of them--but I couldn’t get past the less-than-stellar loss and tie; all the other top teams are pretty clean in that regard, and Edina isn’t. But they’ve pulled off their tightrope act impressively so far, and it’s time to see if they can keep it up. They can definitely earn their way to the top with some big wins.
This week: Thurs vs. #7 Wayzata, Sat vs. #6 Minnetonka
4. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (11-2/3-2)
-Came up short against Edina, though they played relatively well, then demolished St. Louis Park, as expected. The week ahead features two NSC teams, though if anyone in the conference is capable of giving them an interesting game, it’s Totino-Grace.
This week: Tues at Irondale, Sat at Totino-Grace
5. Hill-Murray (9-3-1/2-3-1)
-It’s hard to really know how to rank the Pioneers. Their wins and losses put them here, but they seem a lot stronger than they were back in early December, and I suspect they really belong a couple of spots higher. The good news is that their schedule now gives them a huge advantage over the other top teams, and they should be able to go on a run as the other teams stumble. They should climb in time. Face one of their bigger remaining challenges this week.
This week: Tues at #14 Holy Angels, Sat vs. Henry Sibley
6. Minnetonka (10-3-1/3-2)
-Not flashy, but they continue to pile up the necessary wins as the teams around them go down. Were fortunate to get Hopkins in their first Lake game, though they’ve also got a grudge match with Edina looming; time to try to make up for that state title game. If they can pull that one off, they’ll suddenly be in great shape, and a very real contender for the top spot.
This week: Thurs vs. Hopkins, Sat at #3 Edina
7. Wayzata (12-3/3-3)
-What’s with this team? Are they simply incapable of beating Moorhead, or is there something seriously wrong here? For now, I will lean towards the former answer, and with many of the teams around them losing, they’re not getting whacked as badly as they perhaps should. There’s just too much talent on this squad for them to be plummeting in the rankings. We’ll get a real answer this week, as both Edina and EP are on the docket.
This week: Thurs at #3 Edina, Sat vs. #1 Eden Prairie
8. Maple Grove (9-3-1/1-3)
-Much like Tonka they aren’t doing anything flashy, but they are getting the job done, and in this year’s AA that’s a surprisingly unique claim to fame. Simply taking care of business in the NWSC makes them look good, and their next couple of weeks shouldn’t pose any real challenges, either.
This week: Tues at Rogers
9. Burnsville (9-3-2/1-3-1)
-Lost to Eden Prairie this past week, but also got an important win over Apple Valley. I’m still not completely sold on them, but this next week should solve that--their next three games are the toughest ones left on their schedule. A big week will solidify their position near the top, but a rough one will raise new questions.
This week: Thurs at #10 Eagan, Sat vs. Lakeville South
10. Eagan (10-4-1/1-2-1)
-Once again, the much-hyped Wildcats take a stumble they should not have. At this point, the inconsistency is becoming a real worry. Their game against Burnsville will be crucial to a bounce-back.
This week: Thurs vs. #9 Burnsville, Sat at Prior Lake
11. Grand Rapids (11-3-1/1-2)
-It was a rough week for the Thunderhawks, who took a nasty spill against Hermantown and then came up on the short end of a tight game against section rival Duluth East. (Their drop in the rankings has a lot more to do with the Hermantown loss than it does with the East loss.) They’re still a very dangerous team, but have to make sure this little skid doesn’t snowball into something worse; their next two opponents are capable of pulling an upset if they’re not careful.
This week: Tues vs. Cloquet, Fri vs. Hibbing
12. Moorhead (8-4-1/2-3-1)
-Despite having lost several important players to suspensions, the Spuds got their second huge win over Wayzata. They also picked up a convincing win over section title contender St. Cloud Tech this past week, which certainly helps their status. They’ve done an excellent job of taking care of business against non-elite competition so far, and they’ll have to keep that up this week, as they face the top two 8A teams.
This week: Tues vs. Buffalo, Thurs at East Grand Forks, Sat vs. Warroad
13. Bemidji (14-1-1/0-0-1)
-Time to bring this team towards the top: with a convincing win over Roseau and a gaudy record, they’ve joined the statewide conversation and have a real chance at breaking up the Roseau-Moorhead duopoly over 8AA. An interesting week ahead of them, as they take on Brainerd and the team that has suddenly become the darling of Class A, Hermantown.
This week: Fri vs. Brainerd, Sat vs. Hermantown
14. Holy Angels (8-4/1-2)
-Another very narrow loss to a top team, which means they can probably compete with anyone. They’ll need to step it up another notch this week, as they play two of the state’s elite teams; they could drop two games this week and still hold their position in the rankings. Time to see if they can put an exclamation point on this recent run of theirs.
This week: Tues vs. #5 Hill-Murray, Thurs at #1 Eden Prairie, Fri vs. New Prague
15. White Bear Lake (9-4-1/0-2)
-Brought down Roseville to remain undefeated in the SEC. Continue to get the job done in the conference, which is crucial. Next up are two teams they should beat, though they are capable of causing problems.
This week: Thurs at Hastings, Sat vs. Woodbury
On the Outside Looking In
Lakeville South (6-4-2/0-3)
-The Cougars had a huge week, with a convincing win over section rival Lakeville North and a win over Apple Valley. After their early struggles, they’re finally coming together and looking dangerous down the stretch. It’s still not quite enough to crack the top 15; a win over Burnsville on Saturday could do that for them, though.
Apple Valley (9-5/0-4)
-Going down to Lakeville South sends them out of the rankings. For all the hype they generated coming into the season, their best win at the moment was against Jefferson, and their margins of defeat haven’t exactly been encouraging, either. Get a crack at Duluth East this week; a win could restore some pride.
Cloquet (12-4/0-2)
-They’re not playing elite competition, but they’re piling up the wins. Their rematch with Grand Rapids this week is worth watching, as the teams have been going in opposite directions lately.
Roseville (7-4-4/0-2-1)
-Picked up an important win over Cretin and played WBL pretty close, though they lost. Nothing too flashy, but they continue to look decent.
Blaine (8-3-3/1-1-3)
-Two weeks ago, they were looking like a dangerous team that could compete with anyone; now, they’re struggling to stay afloat in the NWSC. They have a rematch with the Champlin Park team that upset them this week.
Beyond that, we find a 7-7 Roseau team, a decent Stillwater team, and a bunch of NWSC teams that have looked decent lately in Elk River, Centennial, and Osseo. Bloomington Jefferson is back in the picture now as well.
Section Run-Through
1AA
(16) Lakeville South
Lakeville North
-South’s convincing win over rapidly-fading North puts them in the driver’s seat, though South won both regular season meetings last year before falling apart in the section final. Their win over AV also gives us some hope that the section champion will put together a passable showing at State.
2AA
3 Edina
14 Holy Angels
9 Burnsville
Bloomington Jefferson
-Edina’s win over AHA has probably cemented the section seeding in place; I suppose Jefferson could upset Burnsville in one of their SSC meetings, but I would be surprised if the final seeding changes from this. Edina will then have an easier semifinal than usual (unless Jefferson takes some momentum out of that Eagan win), but they had very close escapes against Burnsville and AHA, so the section final should be a great one.
3AA
10 Eagan
(17) Apple Valley
-Eagan’s win over AV has them in the top spot for now, and none of the teams in the crowded chase pack has done anything to create any separation. It’s a two-horse race, with regular season meeting #2 coming in early February. The top two also need to get themselves together, since neither has been doing particularly well lately, and are fading out of the conversation for seeding at state.
4AA
5 Hill-Murray
15 White Bear Lake
Stillwater
(19) Roseville
-WBL has solidified its position as the 2-seed with wins over Roseville and Stillwater, which now will have to fight for the 3-seed. Hill remains alone up on top.
5AA
8 Maple Grove
Centennial
(20) Blaine
Osseo
-Maple Grove plods along on top, but the big news here is Centennial’s convincing win over Blaine--their loss to MG was close, so they definitely should be considered a contender for the section title. Osseo also had a decent showing against MG this past week, so they’re not completely out of it.
6AA
1 Eden Prairie
4 Benilde
6 Minnetonka
7 Wayzata
-The state’s best section remains congested at the top; EP is in line for the top seed at the moment but has certainly shown they’re beatable; Benilde has earned the two-spot for now. The next few weeks should shake things up quite a bit as the three public schools go at each other in the Lake.
7AA
2 Duluth East
11 Grand Rapids
(18) Cloquet
Elk River
-East takes command of the race for the top spot with the win over Rapids, though it clearly shows the Hounds can’t take anything for granted. Now the debate over the 3-spot gets going; Cloquet has games against the top two left on its schedule, and ER also goes to visit East.
8AA
13 Bemidji
Roseau
12 Moorhead
St. Cloud Tech
-Bemidji’s win over Roseau has them in line for the top seed at the moment, though they have to play both Moorhead and Roseau again. Moorhead may be the best team in the section, but at this point would only be the 3-seed since they lost to Roseau and tied Bemidji. Plenty of intrigue to follow down the stretch here.
The big news this upcoming week is the start of the Lake Conference season, which pits four of the top seven teams against one another over the next month. This leads to many important questions as to how we value losses within the conference, and especially in how we compare them to the non-Lake top teams (Hill-Murray is in good position to run the table, DE may lose a game or two but should be favored in all of their remaining games, and BSM faces Shattuck and two or three other decent but beatable teams along with their NSC cakewalk).
The second record listed after the team name is their record against the other teams currently in the top 15
1. Eden Prairie (10-3/6-3)
-There’s not much shame in going down on the road in Duluth in OT, but it’s another narrow loss for the Eagles, which creates a conundrum at the top. But in the end, I look at their brutal schedule and their very narrow losses, and I can’t find it in me to drop them from the top spot. They’re probably the most tenuous #1 I’ve had since I started the rankings, but their losses have all been tight games on the road, and in a crazy year, all their big wins have to count for something. It’s becoming cliché to say so, but they’ve got another big week ahead of them, with two very dangerous opponents on the docket.
This week: Thurs vs. #14 Holy Angels, Sat vs. #7 Wayzata
2. Duluth East (12-2/4-2)
-No team had a bigger week than the Hounds, who put together hard-fought victories over section challenger Grand Rapids and #1 Eden Prairie. The defense, which was a problem back in their earlier games against top teams, now looks much stronger. They have a decent case for #1, but I can’t bring myself to put them up there. They can’t afford to rest on their laurels, as they face a potential trap game in Apple Valley, then a decent St. Cloud Tech team.
This week: Tues at Apple Valley, Sat vs. St. Cloud Tech
3. Edina (9-2-2/6-2-1)
-Continued their string of narrow wins by knocking off Benilde, and now things get really interesting, as they take on a Wayzata team that’s given them trouble lately and then face Minnetonka for the first time since the state title game last year. Some people have plugged this team for #1--they have beaten the two teams ahead of them--but I couldn’t get past the less-than-stellar loss and tie; all the other top teams are pretty clean in that regard, and Edina isn’t. But they’ve pulled off their tightrope act impressively so far, and it’s time to see if they can keep it up. They can definitely earn their way to the top with some big wins.
This week: Thurs vs. #7 Wayzata, Sat vs. #6 Minnetonka
4. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (11-2/3-2)
-Came up short against Edina, though they played relatively well, then demolished St. Louis Park, as expected. The week ahead features two NSC teams, though if anyone in the conference is capable of giving them an interesting game, it’s Totino-Grace.
This week: Tues at Irondale, Sat at Totino-Grace
5. Hill-Murray (9-3-1/2-3-1)
-It’s hard to really know how to rank the Pioneers. Their wins and losses put them here, but they seem a lot stronger than they were back in early December, and I suspect they really belong a couple of spots higher. The good news is that their schedule now gives them a huge advantage over the other top teams, and they should be able to go on a run as the other teams stumble. They should climb in time. Face one of their bigger remaining challenges this week.
This week: Tues at #14 Holy Angels, Sat vs. Henry Sibley
6. Minnetonka (10-3-1/3-2)
-Not flashy, but they continue to pile up the necessary wins as the teams around them go down. Were fortunate to get Hopkins in their first Lake game, though they’ve also got a grudge match with Edina looming; time to try to make up for that state title game. If they can pull that one off, they’ll suddenly be in great shape, and a very real contender for the top spot.
This week: Thurs vs. Hopkins, Sat at #3 Edina
7. Wayzata (12-3/3-3)
-What’s with this team? Are they simply incapable of beating Moorhead, or is there something seriously wrong here? For now, I will lean towards the former answer, and with many of the teams around them losing, they’re not getting whacked as badly as they perhaps should. There’s just too much talent on this squad for them to be plummeting in the rankings. We’ll get a real answer this week, as both Edina and EP are on the docket.
This week: Thurs at #3 Edina, Sat vs. #1 Eden Prairie
8. Maple Grove (9-3-1/1-3)
-Much like Tonka they aren’t doing anything flashy, but they are getting the job done, and in this year’s AA that’s a surprisingly unique claim to fame. Simply taking care of business in the NWSC makes them look good, and their next couple of weeks shouldn’t pose any real challenges, either.
This week: Tues at Rogers
9. Burnsville (9-3-2/1-3-1)
-Lost to Eden Prairie this past week, but also got an important win over Apple Valley. I’m still not completely sold on them, but this next week should solve that--their next three games are the toughest ones left on their schedule. A big week will solidify their position near the top, but a rough one will raise new questions.
This week: Thurs at #10 Eagan, Sat vs. Lakeville South
10. Eagan (10-4-1/1-2-1)
-Once again, the much-hyped Wildcats take a stumble they should not have. At this point, the inconsistency is becoming a real worry. Their game against Burnsville will be crucial to a bounce-back.
This week: Thurs vs. #9 Burnsville, Sat at Prior Lake
11. Grand Rapids (11-3-1/1-2)
-It was a rough week for the Thunderhawks, who took a nasty spill against Hermantown and then came up on the short end of a tight game against section rival Duluth East. (Their drop in the rankings has a lot more to do with the Hermantown loss than it does with the East loss.) They’re still a very dangerous team, but have to make sure this little skid doesn’t snowball into something worse; their next two opponents are capable of pulling an upset if they’re not careful.
This week: Tues vs. Cloquet, Fri vs. Hibbing
12. Moorhead (8-4-1/2-3-1)
-Despite having lost several important players to suspensions, the Spuds got their second huge win over Wayzata. They also picked up a convincing win over section title contender St. Cloud Tech this past week, which certainly helps their status. They’ve done an excellent job of taking care of business against non-elite competition so far, and they’ll have to keep that up this week, as they face the top two 8A teams.
This week: Tues vs. Buffalo, Thurs at East Grand Forks, Sat vs. Warroad
13. Bemidji (14-1-1/0-0-1)
-Time to bring this team towards the top: with a convincing win over Roseau and a gaudy record, they’ve joined the statewide conversation and have a real chance at breaking up the Roseau-Moorhead duopoly over 8AA. An interesting week ahead of them, as they take on Brainerd and the team that has suddenly become the darling of Class A, Hermantown.
This week: Fri vs. Brainerd, Sat vs. Hermantown
14. Holy Angels (8-4/1-2)
-Another very narrow loss to a top team, which means they can probably compete with anyone. They’ll need to step it up another notch this week, as they play two of the state’s elite teams; they could drop two games this week and still hold their position in the rankings. Time to see if they can put an exclamation point on this recent run of theirs.
This week: Tues vs. #5 Hill-Murray, Thurs at #1 Eden Prairie, Fri vs. New Prague
15. White Bear Lake (9-4-1/0-2)
-Brought down Roseville to remain undefeated in the SEC. Continue to get the job done in the conference, which is crucial. Next up are two teams they should beat, though they are capable of causing problems.
This week: Thurs at Hastings, Sat vs. Woodbury
On the Outside Looking In
Lakeville South (6-4-2/0-3)
-The Cougars had a huge week, with a convincing win over section rival Lakeville North and a win over Apple Valley. After their early struggles, they’re finally coming together and looking dangerous down the stretch. It’s still not quite enough to crack the top 15; a win over Burnsville on Saturday could do that for them, though.
Apple Valley (9-5/0-4)
-Going down to Lakeville South sends them out of the rankings. For all the hype they generated coming into the season, their best win at the moment was against Jefferson, and their margins of defeat haven’t exactly been encouraging, either. Get a crack at Duluth East this week; a win could restore some pride.
Cloquet (12-4/0-2)
-They’re not playing elite competition, but they’re piling up the wins. Their rematch with Grand Rapids this week is worth watching, as the teams have been going in opposite directions lately.
Roseville (7-4-4/0-2-1)
-Picked up an important win over Cretin and played WBL pretty close, though they lost. Nothing too flashy, but they continue to look decent.
Blaine (8-3-3/1-1-3)
-Two weeks ago, they were looking like a dangerous team that could compete with anyone; now, they’re struggling to stay afloat in the NWSC. They have a rematch with the Champlin Park team that upset them this week.
Beyond that, we find a 7-7 Roseau team, a decent Stillwater team, and a bunch of NWSC teams that have looked decent lately in Elk River, Centennial, and Osseo. Bloomington Jefferson is back in the picture now as well.
Section Run-Through
1AA
(16) Lakeville South
Lakeville North
-South’s convincing win over rapidly-fading North puts them in the driver’s seat, though South won both regular season meetings last year before falling apart in the section final. Their win over AV also gives us some hope that the section champion will put together a passable showing at State.
2AA
3 Edina
14 Holy Angels
9 Burnsville
Bloomington Jefferson
-Edina’s win over AHA has probably cemented the section seeding in place; I suppose Jefferson could upset Burnsville in one of their SSC meetings, but I would be surprised if the final seeding changes from this. Edina will then have an easier semifinal than usual (unless Jefferson takes some momentum out of that Eagan win), but they had very close escapes against Burnsville and AHA, so the section final should be a great one.
3AA
10 Eagan
(17) Apple Valley
-Eagan’s win over AV has them in the top spot for now, and none of the teams in the crowded chase pack has done anything to create any separation. It’s a two-horse race, with regular season meeting #2 coming in early February. The top two also need to get themselves together, since neither has been doing particularly well lately, and are fading out of the conversation for seeding at state.
4AA
5 Hill-Murray
15 White Bear Lake
Stillwater
(19) Roseville
-WBL has solidified its position as the 2-seed with wins over Roseville and Stillwater, which now will have to fight for the 3-seed. Hill remains alone up on top.
5AA
8 Maple Grove
Centennial
(20) Blaine
Osseo
-Maple Grove plods along on top, but the big news here is Centennial’s convincing win over Blaine--their loss to MG was close, so they definitely should be considered a contender for the section title. Osseo also had a decent showing against MG this past week, so they’re not completely out of it.
6AA
1 Eden Prairie
4 Benilde
6 Minnetonka
7 Wayzata
-The state’s best section remains congested at the top; EP is in line for the top seed at the moment but has certainly shown they’re beatable; Benilde has earned the two-spot for now. The next few weeks should shake things up quite a bit as the three public schools go at each other in the Lake.
7AA
2 Duluth East
11 Grand Rapids
(18) Cloquet
Elk River
-East takes command of the race for the top spot with the win over Rapids, though it clearly shows the Hounds can’t take anything for granted. Now the debate over the 3-spot gets going; Cloquet has games against the top two left on its schedule, and ER also goes to visit East.
8AA
13 Bemidji
Roseau
12 Moorhead
St. Cloud Tech
-Bemidji’s win over Roseau has them in line for the top seed at the moment, though they have to play both Moorhead and Roseau again. Moorhead may be the best team in the section, but at this point would only be the 3-seed since they lost to Roseau and tied Bemidji. Plenty of intrigue to follow down the stretch here.
Burnsville