AA Rankings for 1/23/11
Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2011 12:00 am
It was another week of mayhem in the AA rankings, and once again the teams have been shaken up and left in a convoluted mess. Insanity has become predictable. You should find plenty of things to question or argue about this time around, unless you’d rather just throw up your hands and wait for sections, which I’d understand. But I think the rankings can still give us some ideas of where things are going, and I hope a few of my comments offer something unique and/or insightful.
1. Hill-Murray (12-3-1)
-Another team takes its turn at the top, and it’s another pick that could easily be criticized, with its three losses and tie and not-incredibly-difficult schedule. But I did not hesitate for a second with this pick, for a series of reasons:
1. While Hill may not be as flashy as some of the others, they lack obvious weaknesses. No other team can say that.
2. They are as deep as any team in the state, and unlike some other deep teams, gets a lot out of that depth. The balance across the board is unmatched.
3. They play strong team defense, and as the cliché says, defense wins championships.
4. The schedule may be weak, but that has not affected past Hill teams come playoff time. On the contrary, they tend to get much stronger as the season goes on.
5. They have avoided taking a poor loss, and should run the table from here.
That said, they do have a few loseable games. One is this week, against CSC rival St. Thomas. They also play STA a second time, and have to play Moorhead outdoors. If someone takes command of the Lake, their SOS may be enough to vault that team back into the top spot. But at this point, Hill has by far the most comfortable position of any team in AA.
This week: Thurs vs. St. Thomas Academy, Sat vs. Mahtomedi
2. Eden Prairie (10-4-1)
-This seems high, especially for a team that hasn’t won in its past three games. But there’s just no one with a good case for this spot…Wayzata couldn’t beat them at home, even though EP lacked Molenaar; I’m skeptical of Benilde; Duluth East had a rough week; Tonka is on the rise but not there yet…in the end, EP’s maintained a high standard throughout. The last 11 teams they’ve played are currently ranked, so I suspect they’re gassed. For now, I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt, though another slip-up will cost them. Although they do have two unranked opponents, it’s still not a particularly easy week, as they get a pair of teams that have taken big steps forward in recent weeks.
This week: Tues vs. Lakeville South, Thurs vs. #6 Minnetonka, Sat at Hopkins
3. Wayzata (13-3-1)
-Strong start to their Lake season as they knock off Edina (sans Lucia) for the fifth straight time, and forced a tie against Eden Prairie. Since BSM has lost to both those teams, they get the nod for the 3-spot, despite the fact that their losses are a bit weaker than those of the other top-flight teams. They’ve put to rest some, but certainly not all, of my doubts about them. There’s no rest for the weary, though, as they take on two more top-10 teams this week.
This week: Tues vs. #8 Burnsville, Sat at #6 Minnetonka
4. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (13-2)
-The dismantling of Totino-Grace is a good sign, and clears up any miniscule doubts there may have been about the NSC. Again, they’re tough to rank in relation to everyone else; they have that win over Hill, but that was a long time ago, and the win over Tonka looks better now, but on the other hand, now that EP and Edina have been proven very mortal, their losses don’t look as great as they once did. They depart from the NSC this week to play an adequate Osseo squad, then have an interesting test against an improving Holy Angels team.
This week: Tues at Osseo, Sat at #12 Holy Angels
5. Duluth East (13-3)
-Followed up their finest week of the season with a flat one, in which they fell in Apple Valley and had some trouble with St. Cloud Tech, proving just how narrow a tightrope teams have to walk this year to do well. For me to have confidence in them going down the stretch, they’ll need to get their swagger back, and the Forest Lake game will be an interesting game to watch in that regard--will they seize control, or muck around for a few periods as they have been lately? After that, they have a match-up with Maple Grove that could prove pivotal in the race for state tournament seeding, though both teams would be getting ahead of themselves if they’re focusing on that at this point.
This week: Tues vs. Forest Lake, Sat vs. #9 Maple Grove
6. Minnetonka (12-3-1)
-The rankings may not show any movement between last week and this, but my opinion of the Skippers definitely shot up--their balanced lines and team defense made short work of Edina, and left me very impressed. They are now cemented amongst the state’s top teams. That’s little consolation, though, as they head into the biggest week of their season, playing both EP and Wayzata. Not only are they important in the Lake, they will also make a big difference in the section seeding (whatever that’s worth, with 4 elite teams in the section).
This week: Thurs at #2 Eden Prairie, Sat vs. #3 Wayzata
7. Edina (9-4-2)
-Is this just the Hornets’ annual late January swoon, or is their 0-2 start to the Lake season a sign of trouble? They’ve been walking a very fine line all year; many took that to be a sign of their experience and ability to win close games. But we also should probably entertain the thought that they’re not quite as good as we think. The goaltending’s been sloppy, and for all the depth in the program, they look a little thin at times; they did not have good finishes to either of their games this past week, which is worrisome. The good news: they have a nice breather week, and should be able to rattle off three straight wins before going back to Lake challenges. We’ll see if that gets them back on track.
This week: Tues at Cretin-Derham Hall, Thurs vs. Hopkins, Sat vs. Totino-Grace
8. Burnsville (11-2-2)
-Took command of the SSC this past week with wins over Eagan and Lakeville South. Nothing’s coming easy, but they keep on putting points on the board, and Edina’s struggles have to encourage them. Face one last huge non-conference test on Tuesday in Wayzata before playing to SSC cellar dwellers.
This week: Tues at #3 Wayzata, Thurs at Rosemount, Sat at Eastview
9. Maple Grove (12-3-1)
-Continued their cruise through the NWSC, and have now won six straight. The upcoming week is a huge one, though; for all the hype they still have to prove they can beat five-time defending section champion Blaine, and from a rankings perspective the trip up to Duluth on Saturday is also very big.
This week: Mon vs. Robbinsdale Armstrong, Thurs at Blaine, Sat at #5 Duluth East
10. Bemidji (16-1-1)
-It’s still hard to say how high up we should let Bemidji go with their schedule. But a win over previously unbeaten Hermantown is a very good sign, especially after what the Hawks did to Grand Rapids. Now the Lumberjacks go visit GR themselves, which should either confirm their placement up here or send them dropping some. The rest of the state has been so inconsistent that I’m willing to take a shot with this team.
This week: Tues at #13 Grand Rapids, Sat at Alexandria
11. Moorhead (11-4-1)
-Seem to be on a roll now, which is bad news for the rest of 8AA. The week ahead is a big one, as they try to avenge that loss to Roseau, which is really hurting their seeding chances at the moment. They also host a surging Centennial team in what could be a very good game--and this week is only the warm-up act for a very difficult closing stanza to their season.
This week: Tues vs. Roseau, Thurs at Brainerd, Sat vs. Centennial
12. Holy Angels (10-5)
-Picked up a huge win over Eden Prairie, then beat New Prague by a similar margin the next night. All in all their credentials are very similar to Moorhead’s; I’ve given the Spuds the bump for now since they seem a bit more steady. Still, after the slow start, it’s hard not to be impressed with the Stars’ recent surge. Get a chance to put an exclamation point on it all with a contest against Benilde.
This week: Mon at Red Wing, Thurs vs. Chanhassen, Sat vs. #4 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
13. Grand Rapids (13-3-1)
-Got a couple of narrow wins against northeastern rivals this past week; the drop in the rankings is due to Bemidji’s win over a common opponent, Hermantown. But the T-hawks, who’ve been sliding backwards in the rankings of late, have a fine opportunity to jump back up again with a game against Bemidji on Tuesday.
This week: Tues vs. #10 Bemidji, Fri at International Falls
14. Eagan (11-4-1)
-This feels harsh, but the rankings are crowded this year, and the Wildcats have to get their act together. The loss to Burnsville seriously damaged their chances at winning the conference, and the win over Prior Lake was a bit close for comfort, too. They play the Lakevilles this week, which will be an interesting bellwether; South is surging, and North beat Eagan in their first meeting.
This week: Thurs at Lakeville South, Sat vs. Lakeville North
15. Apple Valley (12-5)
-Beating East was a good way to start getting back into the picture. They have some work to do to prove that win wasn’t just a flash in the pan, but I think they’ll be in good shape to make a run down the stretch. Should be okay this upcoming week, though they can’t get too nonchalant.
This week: Thurs vs. Bloomington Jefferson, Sat at Prior Lake
Next in Line
White Bear Lake (11-4-1)
-Fall from the rankings through absolutely no fault of their own; the top group is just too crowded this year. It’s hard, but aside from the 1-loss Bemidji squad, every team in the top 15 has a win against another top-15 team, and WBL just doesn’t. All they can do is continue to pile up SEC wins, and the weak ahead looks pretty promising, with Park and East Ridge up next.
Lakeville South (7-5-2)
-Continue to look good lately, though they ultimately fell to Burnsville. Monster week ahead of them, with Eden Prairie and Eagan on the docket. A win over either should get them into the rankings.
Stillwater (10-4-1)
-Finally were able to beat Cretin, but perhaps more importantly, they edged Roseville. That win should lock up the 3-seed in 4AA, and with another meeting with White Bear Lake on the horizon, they still have a shot at the 2-seed. Play Woodbury and Forest Lake this week.
Cloquet (12-5)
-Played Grand Rapids closer than they did the first time around, which serves notice to the rest of the state; once again, they’re showing improvement and looking good down the stretch. Important LSC game against Marshall this week, along with a game against Andover that currently looks likely to be a preview of a 7AA quarterfinal.
Roseville (8-5-4)
-Second loss to Stillwater probably dooms them to the 4-seed and a semifinal meeting with Hill, though to their credit, they do a very good job of keeping games close. That’s about all they can hope for if things play out as we expect. Two beatable SEC opponents this week in Mounds View and Park.
Centennial (7-8-1)
-Building some momentum now that they’ve settled into the NWSC. The record is nasty, but the win over Blaine has them sitting pretty. Elk River and Moorhead ahead this week.
Blaine (11-3-3)
-In all honesty they should probably be higher than this, but I have a hard time putting them above the section rival that just beat them 5-0. They’re not going to get anywhere like that. Big week ahead that could make or break their season, as they re-match with Maple Grove and visit Elk River.
Roseau (7-7)
-Were idle this past week; now they have a big one, with road games against 8AA contenders Moorhead and St. Cloud Tech.
St. Cloud Tech (10-6-1)
-Potential 8AA wild-card; they’ve played a couple of the top teams out there pretty well. Play Brainerd and Roseau in the week ahead, which will be big for section seeding.
Osseo (10-5)
-Part of an awkward NWSC sequence; they beat Centennial, who crushed Blaine, who crushed Osseo. Overall they’re a bit weaker, but still in the 5AA picture. Big game against Benilde this week, plus a chance to avenge a bad loss to Andover.
That rounds out our top 25 for the time being. There are only 4 weeks left until sections, and with a handful of exceptions, the big races look wide open. So sit back, enjoy the madness, and we’ll try to make sense of it all again next Sunday.
1. Hill-Murray (12-3-1)
-Another team takes its turn at the top, and it’s another pick that could easily be criticized, with its three losses and tie and not-incredibly-difficult schedule. But I did not hesitate for a second with this pick, for a series of reasons:
1. While Hill may not be as flashy as some of the others, they lack obvious weaknesses. No other team can say that.
2. They are as deep as any team in the state, and unlike some other deep teams, gets a lot out of that depth. The balance across the board is unmatched.
3. They play strong team defense, and as the cliché says, defense wins championships.
4. The schedule may be weak, but that has not affected past Hill teams come playoff time. On the contrary, they tend to get much stronger as the season goes on.
5. They have avoided taking a poor loss, and should run the table from here.
That said, they do have a few loseable games. One is this week, against CSC rival St. Thomas. They also play STA a second time, and have to play Moorhead outdoors. If someone takes command of the Lake, their SOS may be enough to vault that team back into the top spot. But at this point, Hill has by far the most comfortable position of any team in AA.
This week: Thurs vs. St. Thomas Academy, Sat vs. Mahtomedi
2. Eden Prairie (10-4-1)
-This seems high, especially for a team that hasn’t won in its past three games. But there’s just no one with a good case for this spot…Wayzata couldn’t beat them at home, even though EP lacked Molenaar; I’m skeptical of Benilde; Duluth East had a rough week; Tonka is on the rise but not there yet…in the end, EP’s maintained a high standard throughout. The last 11 teams they’ve played are currently ranked, so I suspect they’re gassed. For now, I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt, though another slip-up will cost them. Although they do have two unranked opponents, it’s still not a particularly easy week, as they get a pair of teams that have taken big steps forward in recent weeks.
This week: Tues vs. Lakeville South, Thurs vs. #6 Minnetonka, Sat at Hopkins
3. Wayzata (13-3-1)
-Strong start to their Lake season as they knock off Edina (sans Lucia) for the fifth straight time, and forced a tie against Eden Prairie. Since BSM has lost to both those teams, they get the nod for the 3-spot, despite the fact that their losses are a bit weaker than those of the other top-flight teams. They’ve put to rest some, but certainly not all, of my doubts about them. There’s no rest for the weary, though, as they take on two more top-10 teams this week.
This week: Tues vs. #8 Burnsville, Sat at #6 Minnetonka
4. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (13-2)
-The dismantling of Totino-Grace is a good sign, and clears up any miniscule doubts there may have been about the NSC. Again, they’re tough to rank in relation to everyone else; they have that win over Hill, but that was a long time ago, and the win over Tonka looks better now, but on the other hand, now that EP and Edina have been proven very mortal, their losses don’t look as great as they once did. They depart from the NSC this week to play an adequate Osseo squad, then have an interesting test against an improving Holy Angels team.
This week: Tues at Osseo, Sat at #12 Holy Angels
5. Duluth East (13-3)
-Followed up their finest week of the season with a flat one, in which they fell in Apple Valley and had some trouble with St. Cloud Tech, proving just how narrow a tightrope teams have to walk this year to do well. For me to have confidence in them going down the stretch, they’ll need to get their swagger back, and the Forest Lake game will be an interesting game to watch in that regard--will they seize control, or muck around for a few periods as they have been lately? After that, they have a match-up with Maple Grove that could prove pivotal in the race for state tournament seeding, though both teams would be getting ahead of themselves if they’re focusing on that at this point.
This week: Tues vs. Forest Lake, Sat vs. #9 Maple Grove
6. Minnetonka (12-3-1)
-The rankings may not show any movement between last week and this, but my opinion of the Skippers definitely shot up--their balanced lines and team defense made short work of Edina, and left me very impressed. They are now cemented amongst the state’s top teams. That’s little consolation, though, as they head into the biggest week of their season, playing both EP and Wayzata. Not only are they important in the Lake, they will also make a big difference in the section seeding (whatever that’s worth, with 4 elite teams in the section).
This week: Thurs at #2 Eden Prairie, Sat vs. #3 Wayzata
7. Edina (9-4-2)
-Is this just the Hornets’ annual late January swoon, or is their 0-2 start to the Lake season a sign of trouble? They’ve been walking a very fine line all year; many took that to be a sign of their experience and ability to win close games. But we also should probably entertain the thought that they’re not quite as good as we think. The goaltending’s been sloppy, and for all the depth in the program, they look a little thin at times; they did not have good finishes to either of their games this past week, which is worrisome. The good news: they have a nice breather week, and should be able to rattle off three straight wins before going back to Lake challenges. We’ll see if that gets them back on track.
This week: Tues at Cretin-Derham Hall, Thurs vs. Hopkins, Sat vs. Totino-Grace
8. Burnsville (11-2-2)
-Took command of the SSC this past week with wins over Eagan and Lakeville South. Nothing’s coming easy, but they keep on putting points on the board, and Edina’s struggles have to encourage them. Face one last huge non-conference test on Tuesday in Wayzata before playing to SSC cellar dwellers.
This week: Tues at #3 Wayzata, Thurs at Rosemount, Sat at Eastview
9. Maple Grove (12-3-1)
-Continued their cruise through the NWSC, and have now won six straight. The upcoming week is a huge one, though; for all the hype they still have to prove they can beat five-time defending section champion Blaine, and from a rankings perspective the trip up to Duluth on Saturday is also very big.
This week: Mon vs. Robbinsdale Armstrong, Thurs at Blaine, Sat at #5 Duluth East
10. Bemidji (16-1-1)
-It’s still hard to say how high up we should let Bemidji go with their schedule. But a win over previously unbeaten Hermantown is a very good sign, especially after what the Hawks did to Grand Rapids. Now the Lumberjacks go visit GR themselves, which should either confirm their placement up here or send them dropping some. The rest of the state has been so inconsistent that I’m willing to take a shot with this team.
This week: Tues at #13 Grand Rapids, Sat at Alexandria
11. Moorhead (11-4-1)
-Seem to be on a roll now, which is bad news for the rest of 8AA. The week ahead is a big one, as they try to avenge that loss to Roseau, which is really hurting their seeding chances at the moment. They also host a surging Centennial team in what could be a very good game--and this week is only the warm-up act for a very difficult closing stanza to their season.
This week: Tues vs. Roseau, Thurs at Brainerd, Sat vs. Centennial
12. Holy Angels (10-5)
-Picked up a huge win over Eden Prairie, then beat New Prague by a similar margin the next night. All in all their credentials are very similar to Moorhead’s; I’ve given the Spuds the bump for now since they seem a bit more steady. Still, after the slow start, it’s hard not to be impressed with the Stars’ recent surge. Get a chance to put an exclamation point on it all with a contest against Benilde.
This week: Mon at Red Wing, Thurs vs. Chanhassen, Sat vs. #4 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
13. Grand Rapids (13-3-1)
-Got a couple of narrow wins against northeastern rivals this past week; the drop in the rankings is due to Bemidji’s win over a common opponent, Hermantown. But the T-hawks, who’ve been sliding backwards in the rankings of late, have a fine opportunity to jump back up again with a game against Bemidji on Tuesday.
This week: Tues vs. #10 Bemidji, Fri at International Falls
14. Eagan (11-4-1)
-This feels harsh, but the rankings are crowded this year, and the Wildcats have to get their act together. The loss to Burnsville seriously damaged their chances at winning the conference, and the win over Prior Lake was a bit close for comfort, too. They play the Lakevilles this week, which will be an interesting bellwether; South is surging, and North beat Eagan in their first meeting.
This week: Thurs at Lakeville South, Sat vs. Lakeville North
15. Apple Valley (12-5)
-Beating East was a good way to start getting back into the picture. They have some work to do to prove that win wasn’t just a flash in the pan, but I think they’ll be in good shape to make a run down the stretch. Should be okay this upcoming week, though they can’t get too nonchalant.
This week: Thurs vs. Bloomington Jefferson, Sat at Prior Lake
Next in Line
White Bear Lake (11-4-1)
-Fall from the rankings through absolutely no fault of their own; the top group is just too crowded this year. It’s hard, but aside from the 1-loss Bemidji squad, every team in the top 15 has a win against another top-15 team, and WBL just doesn’t. All they can do is continue to pile up SEC wins, and the weak ahead looks pretty promising, with Park and East Ridge up next.
Lakeville South (7-5-2)
-Continue to look good lately, though they ultimately fell to Burnsville. Monster week ahead of them, with Eden Prairie and Eagan on the docket. A win over either should get them into the rankings.
Stillwater (10-4-1)
-Finally were able to beat Cretin, but perhaps more importantly, they edged Roseville. That win should lock up the 3-seed in 4AA, and with another meeting with White Bear Lake on the horizon, they still have a shot at the 2-seed. Play Woodbury and Forest Lake this week.
Cloquet (12-5)
-Played Grand Rapids closer than they did the first time around, which serves notice to the rest of the state; once again, they’re showing improvement and looking good down the stretch. Important LSC game against Marshall this week, along with a game against Andover that currently looks likely to be a preview of a 7AA quarterfinal.
Roseville (8-5-4)
-Second loss to Stillwater probably dooms them to the 4-seed and a semifinal meeting with Hill, though to their credit, they do a very good job of keeping games close. That’s about all they can hope for if things play out as we expect. Two beatable SEC opponents this week in Mounds View and Park.
Centennial (7-8-1)
-Building some momentum now that they’ve settled into the NWSC. The record is nasty, but the win over Blaine has them sitting pretty. Elk River and Moorhead ahead this week.
Blaine (11-3-3)
-In all honesty they should probably be higher than this, but I have a hard time putting them above the section rival that just beat them 5-0. They’re not going to get anywhere like that. Big week ahead that could make or break their season, as they re-match with Maple Grove and visit Elk River.
Roseau (7-7)
-Were idle this past week; now they have a big one, with road games against 8AA contenders Moorhead and St. Cloud Tech.
St. Cloud Tech (10-6-1)
-Potential 8AA wild-card; they’ve played a couple of the top teams out there pretty well. Play Brainerd and Roseau in the week ahead, which will be big for section seeding.
Osseo (10-5)
-Part of an awkward NWSC sequence; they beat Centennial, who crushed Blaine, who crushed Osseo. Overall they’re a bit weaker, but still in the 5AA picture. Big game against Benilde this week, plus a chance to avenge a bad loss to Andover.
That rounds out our top 25 for the time being. There are only 4 weeks left until sections, and with a handful of exceptions, the big races look wide open. So sit back, enjoy the madness, and we’ll try to make sense of it all again next Sunday.
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keep up the good work.