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KRACH Girls Hockey Hub/MGHCA Website - 2/25 FINAL
Posted: Sat Nov 19, 2011 3:52 pm
by ghshockeyfan
The KRACH rankings will soon become part of the MN Girls' Hockey Hub/MGHCA website. My understanding is that the KRACH rankings will be accessible from that website in the near future in a more user-friendly format. Here are some details and a general overview included in Bill Halbrehder's recent "Ice Chips" article:
http://www.mngirlshockeyhub.com/news_ar ... how/114529
Ice Chips: KRACH is coming!
11/18/2011, 7:30pm (CST)
By Bill Halbrehder
Here we go, the season is under way. Good friend and former coach Brian Goski has always enjoyed statistical ranking of our girl's hockey teams. He uses a statistical ranking called KRACH. Over a number of years, I have been in charge of Section 4AA Girls Hockey for the MSHSL, and I have compared the accuracy of his ranking for the sections with the way they actually turned out, both as the coaches ranked them for seeding, and (including some upsets) how they actually turned out at the end of the sectional tournament. It is amazing that the KRACH statistical ranking has been almost spot on, in the way our section has turned out, and the way the coaches have ranked the teams. The MSHSL has been looking in the direction of some form of statistical ranking for state playdowns in many sports, and although hockey for the most part, still has the coaches rank their section teams, I thought it would be fun and interesting to see how KRACH might do, with the way teams end up for the 2011-12 season.
What caught my eye about KRACH when I first noticed it a few years back, was that it took into account strength of schedule as it ranked the teams. You will sometimes see teams with a lessor record ranked higher than others because they had a much stronger and more difficult schedule than teams with better records. As I looked into it in more detail, I found that the KRACH formula actually helps sort out just what the strength of schedule is for a particular team, as well as taking that into account for its ranking.
I am not a numbers guy, so I won't even try to explain how it works, but here are a few more things I found out about KRACH. First of all it's a funny sounding name, but it actually stands for Ken's Rating for American College Hockey...hence KRACH. Ken is Ken Butler, a statistician, and the mathematical model he used is known as the Bradley-Terry Rating System. That's as far as I can go with a limited mathematical mind.
Another thing that strength of schedule helps determine is that the rankings cannot be distorted by teams with strong records against weak opponents. Finally, the KRACH ranking says that it cannot predict the future, and that champions are determined on the ice. From my perspective that really fits the unpredictability of the game of hockey, and it should be fun to see how it all turns out. So enjoy Brian Goski's version of KRACHfor girls high school hockey . What I like best about KRACH is that it covers top to bottom, all teams; breaks it down into Class A and AA; Strength of Schedule; and Ranking by Section. Welcome Brian, we look forward to your contribution.
2011-2012 Krach
Posted: Mon Dec 05, 2011 9:29 am
by minnesotajrstars
When will the first 2011-2012 Girls Hockey Krach Rankings appear?
Re: 2011-2012 Krach
Posted: Mon Dec 05, 2011 1:42 pm
by ghshockeyfan
minnesotajrstars wrote:When will the first 2011-2012 Girls Hockey Krach Rankings appear?
They are already being posted here in the interim:
http://www.ushsho.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=27266
Wrt Hub/MGHCA site posting - WIP. ETA unknown at this point. Initially this wasn't planned until mid-to-late Dec. but it could be bumped-up/earlier.
Now posted - 05Dec
Posted: Tue Dec 06, 2011 3:29 pm
by ghshockeyfan
Re: Now posted - 05Dec
Posted: Tue Dec 06, 2011 4:47 pm
by MNHockeyFan
Very nice! I like the format and the inclusion of the LPH rankings in parenthesis - makes it easy to compare.
Nothing to do with KRACH, but I also noticed the LPH rankings haven't been updated lately - only the pre-season rankings have been posted. Last season they added the latest LPH and also the Star Tribune's Metro rankings to the Hub site each week, and all of these old ones are still there.
Re: Now posted - 05Dec
Posted: Tue Dec 06, 2011 4:54 pm
by ghshockeyfan
MNHockeyFan wrote:
Very nice! I like the format and the inclusion of the LPH rankings in parenthesis - makes it easy to compare.
Nothing to do with KRACH, but I also noticed the LPH rankings haven't been updated lately - only the pre-season rankings have been posted. Last season they added the latest LPH and also the Star Tribune's Metro rankings to the Hub site each week, and all of these old ones are still there.
Thanks and I think this will be a far more user friendly implementation long-term.
Not certian as to why the LPH & Strib Metro Rankings haven't been updated... Hmm... I'll have to ask about that.
Thank You!
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2011 11:26 am
by minnesotajrstars
I am glad to see the ratings. I expected to see Hill-Murray and Breck at the top. Their game to open the season was a classic case of great goaltending (Breck's Neisen with 36 saves) beating rookie goaltending (Patrick 7 saves on 11 shots and Woodward 7 saves on 8 shots).
My early season surprise so far has been Blake wiith consecutive 8-2 mercy rule (running time) losses to Benilde and Edina followed up with a 6-3 loss to Dodge County. These are not the Bears of previous years and Krach has them pegged perfectly at #54, while LPH is clueless.
Note: Hockey Hub's front page is still touting Krach is COMING instead of Krach is HERE. When I click on Krach is coming, the link goes to Bill Halbrehder's 11/18 article talking about Krach. Please send Hockey Hub a note about updating their site to have better links to go DIRECTLY to Krach!
Re: Thank You!
Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2011 3:05 pm
by ghshockeyfan
minnesotajrstars wrote:I am glad to see the ratings. I expected to see Hill-Murray and Breck at the top. Their game to open the season was a classic case of great goaltending (Breck's Neisen with 36 saves) beating rookie goaltending (Patrick 7 saves on 11 shots and Woodward 7 saves on 8 shots).
My early season surprise so far has been Blake wiith consecutive 8-2 mercy rule (running time) losses to Benilde and Edina followed up with a 6-3 loss to Dodge County. These are not the Bears of previous years and Krach has them pegged perfectly at #54, while LPH is clueless.
Note: Hockey Hub's front page is still touting Krach is COMING instead of Krach is HERE. When I click on Krach is coming, the link goes to Bill Halbrehder's 11/18 article talking about Krach. Please send Hockey Hub a note about updating their site to have better links to go DIRECTLY to Krach!
Will do on the note to the Hub. I think they were working on that last I checked (a link to the new "KRACH" page).
12Dec
Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2011 9:30 am
by ghshockeyfan
Now posted - 12Dec:
http://www.mngirlshockeyhub.com/page/sh ... h-rankings
Archives are also now available from prior week(s).
Hockey Hub is still touting, "KRACH is Coming"
Posted: Mon Dec 19, 2011 11:07 am
by minnesotajrstars
I posted the following comment on Bill Halbrehder's Hockey Hub article to attempt to draw the Hockey Hub's attention to the old link appearing on their Home Page:
"The Krach is coming" link from the News Page to this outdated article should be replaced with a Link Saying "2012 KRACH IS HERE" which should then send the reader DIRECTLY to the Actual Live KRACH Rankings.
(December 19, 2011)
I hope this gets some action to update the HH Home Page!
Re: Hockey Hub is still touting, "KRACH is Coming"
Posted: Mon Dec 19, 2011 11:16 am
by ghshockeyfan
minnesotajrstars wrote:I posted the following comment on Bill Halbrehder's Hockey Hub article to attempt to draw the Hockey Hub's attention to the old link appearing on their Home Page:
"The Krach is coming" link from the News Page to this outdated article should be replaced with a Link Saying "2012 KRACH IS HERE" which should then send the reader DIRECTLY to the Actual Live KRACH Rankings.
(December 19, 2011)
I hope this gets some action to update the HH Home Page!
Thanks! I believe the chief developer has been out of office for over a week - thus the reason for the delay.
19Dec
Posted: Mon Dec 19, 2011 2:35 pm
by ghshockeyfan
Now posted - 19Dec:
http://www.mngirlshockeyhub.com/page/sh ... h-rankings
Archives are also now available from prior week(s).
Re: Hockey Hub is still touting, "KRACH is Coming"
Posted: Mon Dec 19, 2011 3:06 pm
by ghshockeyfan
ghshockeyfan wrote:minnesotajrstars wrote:I posted the following comment on Bill Halbrehder's Hockey Hub article to attempt to draw the Hockey Hub's attention to the old link appearing on their Home Page:
"The Krach is coming" link from the News Page to this outdated article should be replaced with a Link Saying "2012 KRACH IS HERE" which should then send the reader DIRECTLY to the Actual Live KRACH Rankings.
(December 19, 2011)
I hope this gets some action to update the HH Home Page!
Thanks! I believe the chief developer has been out of office for over a week - thus the reason for the delay.
This has been addressed:
http://www.mngirlshockeyhub.com/news_ar ... how/125817?
Or take a look at the main page of the HUB:
http://www.mngirlshockeyhub.com/page/sh ... ssociation
Or:
(See Orange Circle)
Thanks!
Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2011 10:08 am
by minnesotajrstars
The Hockey Hub should take a look at the Page View stats for the Krach Ratings BEFORE and AFTER the Front Page change to "KRACH is HERE!"
They should see a LOT more visits now.
By the way, the TOP teams will be missing their BEST players soon as the USA U18's leave for Czechoslovakia for the World Tourney:
Hill-Murray: Hannah Brandt
Breck: Kate Schipper
Blake: Dani Cameranesi
Grand Rapids: Molly Illikainen
Roseville: Lee Stecklein, Kate Flug
South St. Paul: Sam LaShomb
The girls leave December 26 and return January 8th, so they will miss the Holiday Tourneys and the first week of January return to regular conference games. No team will be hurt worse than Blake where Cameranesi accounts for over half of their scoring (23 goals & 10 assists out of Blake's 49 goals).
Does Krach make any adjustments for Weaker Rosters for these teams?
WHOOPS - Brandt went last year and is too old this year.
Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2011 10:43 am
by minnesotajrstars
WHOOPS - Brandt went last year and is too old this year.
Re: WHOOPS - Brandt went last year and is too old this year.
Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2011 10:46 am
by ghshockeyfan
minnesotajrstars wrote:WHOOPS - Brandt went last year and is too old this year.
Actually - Brandt is going to the Women's camp this year I believe - and not the 18's - so she will be out too.
Re: Thanks!
Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2011 11:05 am
by ghshockeyfan
minnesotajrstars wrote:The Hockey Hub should take a look at the Page View stats for the Krach Ratings BEFORE and AFTER the Front Page change to "KRACH is HERE!"
They should see a LOT more visits now.
By the way, the TOP teams will be missing their BEST players soon as the USA U18's leave for Czechoslovakia for the World Tourney:
Hill-Murray: Hannah Brandt
Breck: Kate Schipper
Blake: Dani Cameranesi
Grand Rapids: Molly Illikainen
Roseville: Lee Stecklein, Kate Flug
South St. Paul: Sam LaShomb
The girls leave December 26 and return January 8th, so they will miss the Holiday Tourneys and the first week of January return to regular conference games. No team will be hurt worse than Blake where Cameranesi accounts for over half of their scoring (23 goals & 10 assists out of Blake's 49 goals).
Does Krach make any adjustments for Weaker Rosters for these teams?
Agreed on the likely increase in traffic now that the update was made. That was one of the key goals - to drive people to the site in general and increase visibility of girls’ hockey through content like KRACH. It is probably the key reason that I agreed to let it be used on the site.
Unfortunately, KRACH does not account for the players being out for 18's, or any other reason. I think of teams that lose players for extended periods due to illness, injury, academics, suspensions, etc., etc. - these are not accounted for either. It is a shortcoming of an algorithm that only looks at record and does not take into account the roster issues or any other factors.
My understanding is that QRF is the same - but they did at one time put more weight on the most recent games. Not sure if this is the case anymore. If so, the teams missing those players will have a greater adverse impact during and immediately following their time away (assuming their teams lose without them - which is not always the case). If those players return and perform well - their team wins a lot the final month of the season, etc. - then QRF should recognize that and hopefully would adjust back to where teams should be had the "most recent games have more weight" scenario not been a factor. Meaning, in the end, I would hope it would be a wash in the ranking impact. In addition, I want to reiterate that I am not certain if QRF does this still - I just know it did at one time, and some ranking algorithms strongly use the "most recent" weighting - for better or for worse.
I personally prefer the blind KRACH method as it averages out over the season.
Lastly, this might be the one area that the human LPH rankings actually work best. The human rankers can look at the results of the teams without players at U18/etc. and rank accordingly - even if those teams lose without their players. It is an entirely separate discussion as to if this is the right thing to do (i.e. rank based on how you feel a team should be ranked (near and long-term) vs. their actual results to-date).
Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2011 1:31 pm
by ghshockeyfan
More updates made today to the main HUB page for KRACH:
http://www.mngirlshockeyhub.com/
24Dec (unchanged as of 26Dec)
Posted: Tue Dec 27, 2011 6:40 pm
by ghshockeyfan
Now posted - 24Dec (unchanged as of 26Dec):
http://www.mngirlshockeyhub.com/page/sh ... h-rankings
Archives are also available from prior week(s).
03Jan
Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2012 10:03 am
by ghshockeyfan
Now posted - 03Jan:
http://www.mngirlshockeyhub.com/page/sh ... h-rankings
Archives are also available from prior week(s).
Class 2A
Jan. 3, 2012
R Team (LPH ranking) Record
1 Benilde-St Margaret's (2) 11-1-0
2 Hill-Murray (3) 14-2-0
3 Anoka (5) 14-1-0
4 Minnetonka (4) 12-3-0
5 Edina (6) 10-3-4
6 Irondale (13) 13-2-0
7 Roseville Area (1) 10-2-2
8 Elk River/Zimmerman (7) 11-2-1
9 Eagan (11) 11-2-2
10 White Bear Lake (12) 10-3-1
Class 1A
Jan. 3, 2012
R Team (LPH ranking) Record
1 Breck (1) 13-0-1
2 Warroad (2) 9-4-1
3 South. St. Paul (3) 10-5-0
4 Thief River Falls (6) 10-1-1
5 Orono (7) 11-1-0
6 Mound-Westonka (5) 10-3-1
7 Rogers (11) 10-3-1
8 Chisago Lakes (9) 11-5-0
9 Blake (4) 7-6-1
10 Henry Sibley 8-5-0
01/09
Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2012 5:17 pm
by ghshockeyfan
http://www.mngirlshockeyhub.com/page/sh ... h-rankings
Archives are also available from prior week(s).
Class 2A
Jan. 9, 2012
R Team (LPH ranking) Record
1 Benilde-St Margaret's (1) 13-1-1
2 Hill-Murray (2) 15-2-0
3 Anoka (3) 16-1-0
4 Minnetonka (4) 14-3-0
5 Roseville Area (5) 12-2-2
6 Edina (6) 12-3-4
7 Elk River/Zimmerman (7) 13-3-1
8 White Bear Lake (9) 13-3-1
9 Irondale (11) 14-2-0
10 Eagan (10) 13-2-2
Class 1A
Jan. 9, 2012
R Team (LPH ranking) Record
1 Breck (1) 15-0-1
2 Warroad (2) 11-4-1
3 South. St. Paul (3) 12-5-0
4 Thief River Falls (4) 11-2-1
5 Mound-Westonka (5) 12-3-1
6 Orono (7) 12-2-0
7 Chisago Lakes (9) 13-5-0
8 Rogers (10) 10-5-2
9 Blake (6) 8-8-1
10 Red Wing (8 ) 10-5-1
01/11
Posted: Thu Jan 12, 2012 6:03 pm
by ghshockeyfan
01/16
Posted: Wed Jan 18, 2012 8:58 am
by ghshockeyfan
01/24
Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 8:39 am
by ghshockeyfan
01/30
Posted: Tue Jan 31, 2012 10:34 pm
by ghshockeyfan
http://www.mngirlshockeyhub.com/page/sh ... h-rankings
Note that the Overall is out-of-date... As are the LPH rankings. Will need to get those updated... I appreciate a poster that recently pointed this out to me
