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After my analysis last week and recent games, I am confident with how I have the top 3. DM/EGF are very close, but DM has the benefit of their schedule on their side. The rest are still very close and a compelling argument could be made for many of them to be a few spots higher or lower. Some things will get sorted out this week and more next week.

Enjoy!

1. St Thomas Academy (3-1) [3-0]
The Cadets traveled to Rochester this week and showed that not only is their defense great, but they can score just like the other two in the top 3. One of their biggest games of the season is this Thursday in St Paul as the Cadets and Raiders pack the Coliseum. The Raiders won their opening game against Blake but followed that up losing 4 in a row, scoring 2 goals in each game, which they just snapped. It should be a packed arena and a great game.
This week: Thurs @ Cretin-Derham Hall

2. Hermantown (5-0) [3-0]
Only scoring 3 against a team (Superior) that has allowed 4+ GA in 4 of their 5 other games isn’t a great sign. Then they follow that up with a 2-1 victory over section opponent Rogers; where’d the firepower go? They have two 7A opponents this week before traveling up to Thief River Falls after Christmas.
This week: Tues vs Virginia, Thurs vs #12 Duluth Denfeld

3. Breck (5-0) [5-0]
After a week without games, the Mustangs go on the road for two private school games this week. The addition of Holy Angels is great, but should be an easy win for them leading into the Schwan Cup.
This week: Tues @ Providence Academy, Wed @ Holy Angels

4. Duluth Marshall (5-3) [4-2]
After traveling to the twin cities and continuing to show they can play with the top teams in the state, the Hilltoppers played a pair 8A opponents this weekend to routing one and going to OT with the other. Can that experience help them hosting the Thunderhawks this week?
This week: Thurs vs Grand Rapids

5. East Grand Forks (5-1) [5-0]
Not quite the convincing win over Warroad I was expecting after beating a team 5-1 who beat them 5-1, but they are set up as the top team in 8A with a very close second in Warroad. They travel to ND and Crookston this week to prepare for their holiday tournament in Grand Forks. Their GF/GA ratio is slightly better in their win over Totino-Grace than Hermantown’s, so they are probably a legitimate top 3 or 4 contender down the stretch…but it will be difficult to gauge as ALL of their MN competition is from section 8.
This week: Tues @ Grand Forks Central, Thurs @ Crookston

6. Blake (4-2) [3-1]
After a week-long rest, the Bears travel to Mahtomedi to play a surprise team in the Zephyrs. Should be a great Class A game this Tues to help Blake prepare for the currently undefeated Roseville.
This week: Tues @ #7 Mahtomedi

7. Mahtomedi (5-2) [2-1]
Last week I missed that Mahtomedi beat a Cretin team that Blake lost to earlier in the season. They are winning under the radar and show they could be a top team in the state as they recently lost to Hill Murray by a similar score as St Thomas did. Should they be higher? We will see this week as they play Blake at home.
This week: Tues vs #6 Blake

8. Totino-Grace (4-4) [3-3]
While Totino is only .500, the Eagles’ only losses are to Benilde (by a similar margin as Marshall) and to teams ranked above them. They play Spring Lake Park this week before a week off with no holiday tournament as most of the rest of their schedule is filled with conference games, they should be challenged on January 3rd against Mahtomedi.
This week: Thurs vs Spring Lake Park

9. Rogers (2-3) [2-3]
Ranked in the pre-season, the Royals haven’t had the best schedule to show they should be, but losing to both Mahtomedi and Hermantown by one goal shows they can play. This week they play two teams to help prepare them for their game next week against Orono to help them move up in the rankings if they deserve to.
This week: Tues vs Princeton, Thurs vs Little Falls

10. Thief River Falls (5-1-1) [3-1]
The Prowlers just won a close game against Bemidji and this week go on the road to play Warroad for their place in the top 2 of section 8A.
This week: Tues @ #13 Warroad

11. Orono (3-1-1) [3-1]
The Spartans keep rolling after showing they can play with top teams by beating Warroad. Next week they will either get exposed as not this good or continue to win. This week they play section opponent Chaska in the hopes of claiming a top 3 seed despite not playing Breck nor Blake this season.
This week: Tues vs Chaska

12. Duluth Denfeld (6-1-1) [2-0-1]
The Hunter have played 6 of their first 8 games on the road and not lost any of their 3 Class A games this far. They travel over to Hermantown to see if they can upset the Hawks this week. After the holidays they play many Class A teams so there will be a good picture of where they should sit in the state and section standings.
This week: Thurs @ @2 Hermantown

13. Warroad (4-3) [3-2]
The Warriors had two OT games this week and they will host TRF this week before hosting 3 opponents over the holiday. The win over Bemidji and close game with EGF make their 1-5 loss seems like a hiccup on their schedule and expect for a game this Tuesday with TRF.
This week: Tues vs @10 Thief River Falls

14. Rochester Lourdes (5-2) [4-2]
The Eagles are not in the discussion for a top team as their beating by St Thomas showed and the loss to 3-6 Little Falls, but that was hopefully an off game as they beat Cathedral on the road and now Northfield. They have two private school opponents to hopefully continue their winning ways against this week.
This week: Tues vs Holy Family Catholic, Thurs @ Providence Academy

15. St Cloud Cathedral (5-2) [5-2]
The Crusaders lost to Lourdes, but rebounded by beating a good Delano team in OT. They play two home games this week that appear to be easy victories before having the holiday week off and starting the new year off with Holy Family and two 8A opponents
This week: Mon vs Proctor, Thurs vs Mora


Watch List (in no particular order)

Delano (4-3) [3-3]
The Tigers’ first Class A game was an OT loss to Blake, they recently lost to Breck by 2 at home and followed that up with an OT loss to Cathedral at the MAC. They travel to play a good Chanhassen team this week.
This week: Tues @ Chanhassen

Hibbing/Chisholm (3-3) [3-2]
Right or wrong, the Bluejackets have fallen off the list because of their schedule thus far and it doesn’t improve at all this week or much next week with the exception of Mahtomedi.
This week: Mon vs Two Harbors, Wed vs Greenway

South St Paul (4-1-1) [3-0-1]
While the Packers haven’t shown they are a top team, they also haven’t lost to a Class A team yet.
This week: Idle

Virginia (4-2) [4-1]
The Blue Devils may end up showing us they deserve a spot high on my list, as they have beaten both Little Falls and Mound-Westonka, two teams who have upset teams on my list, but also only have quality losses thus far.
This week: Tues @ #2 Hermantown

Games of the week:

#1 St Thomas Academy @ Cretin-Derham Hall, Thurs

#2 Hermantown vs #12 Denfeld, Thurs

#4 Duluth Marshall vs Grand Rapids, Thurs

#6 Blake @ #7 Mahtomedi, Tues

#10 Thief River Falls @ #13 Warroad, Tues

looks good.
I may be questioning DM after barely winning agains Crookston in OT

HShockeywatcher wrote:Games of the week:

#1 St Thomas Academy @ Cretin-Derham Hall, Thurs

#2 Hermantown vs #12 Denfeld, Thurs

#4 Duluth Marshall vs Grand Rapids, Thurs

#6 Blake @ #7 Mahtomedi, Tues

#10 Thief River Falls @ #13 Warroad, Tues

Great set of games there to show what those teams can do against the top competition. Its also going to have major implications of the rankings next week and might show whos the best of the best so far this season.

Getting to the time of year where you seperate the men from the boys. I think in the next 10 days we'll see the STA probably isn't deserving of the top spot but will Hermantown or Breck prove that they are?

Redlight wrote:Getting to the time of year where you separate the men from the boys. I think in the next 10 days we'll see the STA probably isn't deserving of the top spot but will Hermantown or Breck prove that they are?

I'm not at the games, but Hermantown's really slowing down lately; played Superior and Rogers VERY close. The next two week will be 5 teams of which 2-3 have a shot of keeping it close. The only reason Hermantown didn't drop a spot this week is Breck not playing.

If St Thomas loses either of their next two games they will definitely drop, but after that it will be tough to gauge.

Being dropped from the Gold Division last year Breck, is in a position now where they will need to win their next 5 games AND get help from the two above them to move up.

That being said, with only 4 games played, and dominating the play of all 4, I'm still not sure what St Thomas is doing to show they are worse than either Breck or Hermantown.
To that specifically; with who they play, who would St Thomas need to lose to for you to say they are definitely not deserving of the top spot in Class A? The play CDH (most likely a win, but anything can happen in rivalry games), AHA (most likely a win at this point, but they still have to play, East or Burnsville, then Blaine, HM, Tonka or Edina.
They could go 2-2 in the next two weeks, beating teams they should beat and losing to top 5 or 10 teams in AA. Even if Hermantown and Breck win all their games, it's hard to say they still aren't deserving of the spot.

I don't have the answer, and we'll have to wait to see, but this is the difficulty with Class A. Same goes for 8A teams whose only losses are to 8AA teams; it's tough to compare losses to good AA team to beating worse A teams.

But you are definitely right, with common opponents and the quality of opponents, the top 3 could really end up in any order in the next two and three weeks.

Wasn't going to, but I'll weigh in just once this week on this topic.

If St Thomas loses either of their next two games they will definitely drop, but after that it will be tough to gauge. They should win both of Catholic School rivalries due to this being a down year for both CDH and HA.
Being dropped from the Gold Division last year Breck, is in a position now where they will need to win their next 5 games AND get help from the two above them to move up. Even though they should win all 5 games, its seems like a pretty high standard considering they would be 10-0 vs a STA team with 3 losses.

That being said, with only 4 games played, and dominating the play of all 4, I'm still not sure what St Thomas is doing to show they are worse than either Breck or Hermantown. An overtime win and a loss is "dominating play"?
To that specifically; with who they play, who would St Thomas need to lose to for you to say they are definitely not deserving of the top spot in Class A? Nobody according to HH or FTP's rankings! The play CDH (most likely a win, but anything can happen in rivalry games), AHA (most likely a win at this point, but they still have to play, East or Burnsville, then Blaine, HM, Tonka or Edina. Don't need to lose to anybody in HH or FTP's view. Agreed that they shouldn't have too much problem with CDH, but they will surely be exposed in the Schwan Cup once they get by a HA team that should be playing in the Bronze division.
They could go 2-2 in the next two weeks, beating teams they should beat and losing to top 5 or 10 teams in AA. Even if Hermantown and Breck win all their games, it's hard to say they still aren't deserving of the spot.

I don't have the answer, and we'll have to wait to see, but this is the difficulty with Class A. Same goes for 8A teams whose only losses are to 8AA teams; it's tough to compare losses to good AA team to beating worse A teams. Agreed
But you are definitely right, with common opponents and the quality of opponents, the top 3 could really end up in any order in the next two and three weeks.[/quote][/b]

It appears that we are going to very likely disagree on this until they play head to head on 1/21. Keep up the good work, I know its not an easy task.

Goldy23 wrote:Being dropped from the Gold Division last year Breck, is in a position now where they will need to win their next 5 games AND get help from the two above them to move up. Even though they should win all 5 games, its seems like a pretty high standard considering they would be 10-0 vs a STA team with 3 losses.

It's about who they play. I don't like doing this, but the AHA games may end up being compared; we'll see.
Say St Thomas wins against CDH and AHA, then loses to East (everyone's #1 in AA) then loses to any of Edina, Blaine, Hill or Tonka (all top 15 teams, but they'll likely play a top 10 or 5 team) and Breck beats the same AHA team, AV, say Stillwater and Bemidji. If it happens like that, unless Breck shuts all those teams out and St Thomas gets crushed in their losses, is that enough for you to say Breck is for sure better?
I'm just hoping the Cadets lose less than 2 so I won't have the dilemma

Goldy23 wrote:That being said, with only 4 games played, and dominating the play of all 4, I'm still not sure what St Thomas is doing to show they are worse than either Breck or Hermantown. An overtime win and a loss is "dominating play"?

I comment only on scores then people want more analysis from me? Now I comment on analysis and I'm wrong because the score was different?
I didn't get a chance to see the DM game, but all comments on here about it were that St Thomas had control the whole game. The stats back that up.
I did watch the Hill Murray game and the only reason St Thomas didn't win by at least a couple was the Pioneers' goalie; amazing game! There's an article on the hub about it.
I'm not worried the Cadets will have trouble playing with the best of the Gold Division, but playing good defense and scoring is appearing to be an issue against top competition.

HShockeywatcher wrote: 2. Hermantown (5-0) [3-0]
Only scoring 3 against a team (Superior) that has allowed 4+ GA in 4 of their 5 other games isn’t a great sign. Then they follow that up with a 2-1 victory over section opponent Rogers; where’d the firepower go? They have two 7A opponents this week before traveling up to Thief River Falls after Christmas.
This week: Tues vs Virginia, Thurs vs #12 Duluth Denfeld

Virginia (4-2) [4-1]
The Blue Devils may end up showing us they deserve a spot high on my list, as they have beaten both Little Falls and Mound-Westonka, two teams who have upset teams on my list, but also only have quality losses thus far.
This week: Tues @ #2 Hermantown

So much for Virginia showing they deserve a spot on the list...

HShockeywatcher, most everything you say about Hermantown has little basis in reality. The only thing close about any of their games was the score in 2 of them. Here is the past 3 game summary:

Superior Game 3-2 W
Shots: 35-25 Herm
Penalties:10 for Herm, 4 for Sup. Herm skated entire 2 period short with 5-3 for over 5 minutes. Superior 0-10 on pp. Herm led 3-1 most of game and 4th line got scored on late in third.

Rogers Game 2-1 W
Shots 41-16! Herm
Rogers goalie stood on head. Rogers only goal came on a 5-3 at end of second period as time ran out.

Virginia Game 8-1 W
Shots 43-15!
Virginia's only goal late in game against 4th line.

In addition to these games, they controlled play their first 3 games also. Look at the score sheets. Herm wins every game, allows few goals, controls play and out-shoots 2 to 1 or more, and all you can say is that they have "suspect D" and lost "firepower". St Thomas LOST a game and you say they still dominated it! If you would look a little deeper (hockey hub), you would see that Hermantown has, in your words, "dominated" every game they have played thus far this season and won all of them. Saying they have "suspect D" and questioning their "firepower" is ridiculous. In addition, Herm plays its whole team, not just first 2 or 3 lines and only 4 or 5 D . Some goals will get scored on a team that does this. The 4th line has seen play in all 6 of their games thus far.
So next ranking, why don't you quit the "Who is 4th best" and "What section will not be seeded" and get back to letting the people vote on the top 4 or 5 teams are in class A/AAA. That would be interesting expecially after this weekend.

Agree. Hermantown is a top two team and should be at one or two in these rankings as they are in most others. But it looks like STA will hold the top spot in Watchers rankings until we get a new Pope or until Breck beats them in January regardless of how many other games they lose between now and then.

I take back what I said about Virginia. They lost alot from last year, are still a good team and may deserve a spot in the top 10. Time will tell

Herm led Sup. 2-1 after the 1st (Superior put the puck in their own net for the hawks second goal). Herm went up 3-1 with .17 secs left in the 2nd period to lead 3-1 after two. Superior scored midway through the 3rd to make it 3-2.

Goldy23 wrote:Agree. Hermantown is a top two team and should be at one or two in these rankings as they are in most others. But it looks like STA will hold the top spot in Watchers rankings until we get a new Pope or until Breck beats them in January regardless of how many other games they lose between now and then.

Are you disappointed with me for being consistent and using the same pre-season ranking I have the last two years or are you disappointed that LPH doesn't agree with your opinion?

pekyman wrote:HShockeywatcher, most everything you say about Hermantown has little basis in reality. The only thing close about any of their games was the score in 2 of them.

Quote anything I said about Hermantown that is fictional.

You are right, Hermantown did way outshoot Rogers by the end of the game. But please tell me that's not the only stat you look at. As much as I can, I look at that, shots by period, and compare opponents, among other things.
After the 1st period shots were 4-4, tied at 0. In the second shots were 11-9 in favor of Hermantown with Rogers up 5-3. Then whatever wasn't clicking (looks like guys not going to the box) clicked and the Hawks outshot Rogers 24-3 in the 3rd period scoring 2 goals 50 seconds apart to come from behind and win 2-1.

I have nothing against Hermantown; I'm surprised they weren't #1 in every pre-season poll. They were #3 and I switched them with Breck putting them at #2 because of their success last year and who they lost. It appears that their goalie was probably a big part of that and it is hurting them not having him back.

It seems a couple people have a very biased opinion of a couple teams and are unable to respond to some basic questions. Like it or not, Hermantown has played all of ONE team (maybe none depending on who you ask) top team this season and has allowed more GA to some of them and fewer GF than others.

If any of the top 3 were to play in the regular season, I'd probably put my money on the home team. They're all good and in the 14 games that these rankings cover, I don't see anything definitive to say one should move position. Goldy23, who just made a negative comment about St Thomas being #1, agreed that with this next week it will be tough to compare schedules.

Not only did I watch the HM/STA game, but using your definition of dominating (outshooting the opponent), St Thomas did dominate that game. The score could've easily been 5-2 but the HM goalie played an amazing game. There was an article I cited on the Hub that said the same thing.

Thanks to everyone for the positive remarks, hopefully everyone has a safe holiday and safe travels to family and hockey games.

I would add to go check out the analysis of the three teams I did last week. In hindsight I think my switching Breck and Hermantown is quite generous. It's all very interesting.

Difference in rating in PageStat2 from the end of last season to now (a system that uses margin of victory to rate teams);
Breck: +2.03
Hermantown: +0.19
St Thomas: +0.49

All good teams, STA, Breck & Hermtwn, will be fun to watch to see who ends up at the top.

Delano hands Chanhassen their first loss!

Questions for discussion:
-Is Rogers too high?
-Where should Orono be?
-How good is Waconia?
a. They shut out a team that beat Orono.
b. They lost 1-5 to St Louis Park and went to OT with SPA.
-Are #5 EGF, #10 TRF and #13 Warroad in the right places after their OT games?

Thanks for opinions

[quote="HShockeywatcher"]Delano hands Chanhassen their first loss!

Questions for discussion:
-Is Rogers too high?
-Where should Orono be?
-How good is Waconia?
a. They shut out a team that beat Orono.
b. They lost 1-5 to St Louis Park and went to OT with SPA.
-Are #5 EGF, #10 TRF and #13 Warroad in the right places after their OT games?


SLP is 6-0 and dominating their schedule I wouldn't consider that a bad loss

Rogers has a nice team....not top 10 at this point though
i watched them last night, pretty good passing and they like to float.
they took a ton of penalties and goaltending is a little shaky. i do think they are a top 20 team for sure.

In your initial list you have Cathedral ranked #15 with a 4-3 record. Case for a higher ranking is they have only lost twice. Record is now 7-2. If you recognize the Breck game as having a lot of strange bounces that impacted play by a team that was missing 3 important players it has some reduced significance. In the remaining 8 games Cathedral is giving up <1 goal per game. Coming into the season their defense was the question mark. They seem to be making some progress on team defense and improvement continues.

Puck76 wrote:In your initial list you have Cathedral ranked #15 with a 4-3 record. Case for a higher ranking is they have only lost twice. Record is now 7-2. If you recognize the Breck game as having a lot of strange bounces that impacted play by a team that was missing 3 important players it has some reduced significance. In the remaining 8 games Cathedral is giving up <1 goal per game. Coming into the season their defense was the question mark. They seem to be making some progress on team defense and improvement continues.

Odd, I believe when I put them at 4-3 I may have been thinking Delano beat them. Very weird, but I changed it, thanks for letting me know.

You are right, they seem to have figured something out. While they were playing Sauk Rapids, Proctor and Mora, and you should expect wins, shutting out any three teams is always an amazing feat. Brings their GAA to below 0.25 in the last 4 games.

As far as them going higher, they probably will by default of a few teams ahead of them dropping, but it is difficult to bring them too much higher with their 3 goal loss to Lourdes, 1 goal victory over Little Falls, their loss to Breck still being relavent and them not playing in a holiday tournament. I don't expect them to crack the top 10 in the next couple rankings for the next few times, but with the lower opponents and time off, maybe they have figured things out.

Their next 5 opponents are Holy Family, Crookston and Warroad, all away, Mound-Westonka home and then Hermantown away. I expect the January 13th game in Hermantown to be a statement game for both teams. If they can come off those 5 games 4-1 (or even 5-0), they will rise a lot, and likely stay there for a while.

If Hermantown can stay out of the box, I doubt they'll have a chance in that game, but if not, it's anyone's game. Get some rest boys!