Class A Rankings 1-1-12
Posted: Sun Jan 01, 2012 12:57 pm
Happy New Year everyone!
A few things about the rankings this week:
-The top 3: After my analysis (in my rankings two weeks ago), what we have seen between STA/Breck, and how close Hermantown has played against lesser teams, I think this is a pretty good fit for right now. You should still debate they should be in any order you want, and I suspect it will really be up to speculation until state. The winner of the Breck/STA game will likely get the #1 seed and (bad losses withstanding) the loser will be #2. Both reliable computer systems have them in this order.
-I started a sections ranking with the two sections who don't have any teams in my rankings. In the next couple weeks I will slowly add more sections. I have not heard from anyone if any sections are using QRF this year or if they are all voting still.
-There are still 4 teams undefeated against Class A opponents. First hand info on how they compare if you've seen them each play would be great. If EGF can continue to win against Class A teams, it will be interesting to see how they are seeded/ranked as things go forward.
-Enjoy! Constructive criticism and friendly discussion always welcome.
1. Breck (10-0) [6-0]
Only playing one home game thus far this season, the Mustangs have better slightly GF/GA games than St Thomas against their two common opponents (Marshall and Holy Angels) and, despite not being a top 5 AA team, they showed they can play with the best by winning this holiday break with a win over Lakeville South. Only 5 of their remaining 15 games will provide them any difficulty. They are idle this week but then travel to play Moorhead next week.
This week: Idle
2. St Thomas Academy (5-3) [3-0]
The Cadets showed this past week they can play with anyone in the state; one of two teams to outshoot East this season and played them closer than anyone yet. They should notch another conference win Thursday and then be tested again in Mahtomedi as they Zephyrs have been playing well lately.
This week: Thurs @ South St Paul, Sat @ Mahtomedi
3. Hermantown (10-0) [7-0]
Hermantown continues to win, but many continue to not be very convincing. There have been more than one week I was planning on moving them up to #1 this season had they played better, but they played lower teams tight. They are probably still the favorite to make it to state, maybe even win, if they can stay out of the box, which has been their #1 problem. 6 of their next 7 games are on the road, which will be a great test for them. Marshall has played both Breck and St Thomas tight; how will the defense and goalie handle Judd Peterson?
This week: Thurs @ Duluth Marshall, Sat @ International Falls
4. Mahtomedi (7-4) [4-2]
It took more than 14 minutes into OT for the Thunderhawks to score on the Zephyrs. Their losses are to Breck and AA teams and beat Rogers by the same margin Hermantown did; how will they do against the Eagles and the Cadets this week?
This week: Tues @ Totino-Grace, Thurs @ Henry Sibley, Sat vs St Thomas
5. Duluth Marshall (8-4) [6-2]
The drop in the rankings this week is due to what Mahtomedi did, not anything the Hilltoppers did wrong. They have an opportunity this week to jump a couple spots; the Hawks have needed to come from behind against teams much worse than Marshall, can Judd get them ahead and keep them ahead?
This week: Tues @ Greenway, Thurs vs Hermantown, Sat @ Rochester Lourdes
6. East Grand Forks (9-2) [6-0]
Another loss against a non-Class A team. The Green Wave will continue to win games and it will continue to be difficult to tell what they mean compared to the rest of the state. One of the games they lost is to a team two section foes beat and the other is to a ND team they play twice more. In their next 5 games they play two ND teams followed by two 8AA teams.
This week: Thurs @ Grand Forks Red River
7. Totino-Grace (6-4) [5-3]
The Eagles didn’t have a winter tournament and their only game was against Red Wing. The only team below them they’ve lost to is Blake and it was in OT. This week against Mahtomedi should be us a better idea of where they should be.
This week: Tues vs Mahtomedi, Thurs vs Robbinsdale Cooper
8. Thief River Falls (8-2-1) [5-2]
Going into the third period at home the Prowlers were beating Hermantown; they’ve also beaten Warroad and Blake. This Tuesday at Moorhead should be a great game.
This week: Tues @ Moorhead, Thurs @ Kittson Central
9. Blake (5-5) [4-1]
The Bears just went 0-3 in the Silver Division of the Schwan Cup while playing no Class A teams and losing to Bemidji by the same GF/GA as EGF did. Only one of their losses is to TRF and they have one goal wins over Delano, Totino and Mahtomedi. Their remaining schedule includes the Tri-City Conference, Lourdes, Hutchinson and Chanhassen. To get much higher they will need others above them to lose…or beat Breck.
This week: Tues vs St Paul Johnson, Fri vs Chanhassen, Sat @ Minnehaha Academy
10. Rogers (6-4) [3-4]
The loss to Little Falls at home right before Christmas doesn’t look great, but they responded with three Schwan Cup wins. They lost to Mahtomedi and Hermantown both by 1 and it took both of them coming from behind to beat the Royals. Two games this week should be wins although it will be tough for them to rise much higher without bad losses from other teams for another month. They should cruise through their Mississippi 8 schedule and play Lourdes and Cathedral in two of their last 4 games.
This week: Tues @ St Louis Park, Thurs @ Cambridge-Isanti
11. Warroad (6-4-1) [4-3]
The early season loss seems to be shaken off. The Warriors will probably be a top 3 seed going into sections as their recently OT losses to EGF and TRF indicate they are not as far behind as once thought. Winning the second time around could definitely still get them the top seed as they also play Marshall and Cathedral this season.
This week: Fri vs St Cloud Tech, Sat vs St Cloud Cathedral
12. Orono (4-4-1) [4-3]
It is tough to tell where the Spartans should be; their early win against Warroad may be wearing off as they lost to Hudson in OT recently. Their Wright County schedule will give them an opportunity to get some wins and play for a top 3 or 2 seed in sections depending on how they can do against Delano.
Tues @ Hutchinson, Thurs vs Waconia
13. Rochester Lourdes (8-3) [6-2]
3 wins, 28 goals, 2 shut outs, 1 city. Not a bad holiday tournament regardless of the opposition. The Eagles have one bad away loss to Little Falls but otherwise have 8 wins against teams they should be beating. The beating St Thomas put on them suggests they won’t be able to do much better this weekend when they host the Hilltoppers.
This week: Sat vs Duluth Marshall
14. St Cloud Cathedral (7-2) [7-2]
The Crusaders have a schedule thus far that is very difficult to tell how good they are, especially after they beating Breck put on them the first game of the season in Duluth. Since then they have taken care of business allowing 1 goal in their last 4 games, the last 3 being shut outs. Three away games this week; if they can win all three they will rise a couple spots next week.
This week: Tues @ Holy Family Catholic, Fri @ Crookston, Sat @ Warroad
15. Delano (7-4) [3-4]
Playing top teams close is a great sign; 3 goal loss to Marshall, 2 goal loss to Breck, and OT losses to Blake and Cathedral. The Tigers are in line for a 3 or 4 seed in sections and they are a team I wouldn’t be surprised to see in the finals. If they can get by Lourdes and Orono they will have a 17 game winning streak going into the section semifinals.
This week: Tues vs Waconia, Thurs @ Mound-Westonka
Section Standings
3A
Marshall (3-0)
New Ulm (1-1)
Hutchinson (0-2)
Luverne (0-1)
Marshall has beaten Luverne, New Ulm and Hutchinson, so they are the favorite at the moment. That being said, their wins over New Ulm and Hutchinson were both by 1 goal and they play New Ulm again. New Ulm and Hutchinson don’t play again, so this is likely to be how the top 4 end up on the season, with the possibility of the top 2 switching when they play against on Feb 2nd.
6A
Alexandria (3-0)
Little Falls (1-1)
Wilmar (0-2)
Prairie Center Area (0-1)
If the season were over today, this is most likely how the top 4 would look.
Alexandria has beating the other 3, each 1 goal games. Little Falls lost a one goal game to Alexandria but recently shut out Wilmar. Little Falls and Prairie Center Area play this week. Looking at their results and upcoming schedules I expect these to be the top 4 with Little Falls winning the second match up with Alexandria and getting the nod for the #1 seed.
A few things about the rankings this week:
-The top 3: After my analysis (in my rankings two weeks ago), what we have seen between STA/Breck, and how close Hermantown has played against lesser teams, I think this is a pretty good fit for right now. You should still debate they should be in any order you want, and I suspect it will really be up to speculation until state. The winner of the Breck/STA game will likely get the #1 seed and (bad losses withstanding) the loser will be #2. Both reliable computer systems have them in this order.
-I started a sections ranking with the two sections who don't have any teams in my rankings. In the next couple weeks I will slowly add more sections. I have not heard from anyone if any sections are using QRF this year or if they are all voting still.
-There are still 4 teams undefeated against Class A opponents. First hand info on how they compare if you've seen them each play would be great. If EGF can continue to win against Class A teams, it will be interesting to see how they are seeded/ranked as things go forward.
-Enjoy! Constructive criticism and friendly discussion always welcome.
1. Breck (10-0) [6-0]
Only playing one home game thus far this season, the Mustangs have better slightly GF/GA games than St Thomas against their two common opponents (Marshall and Holy Angels) and, despite not being a top 5 AA team, they showed they can play with the best by winning this holiday break with a win over Lakeville South. Only 5 of their remaining 15 games will provide them any difficulty. They are idle this week but then travel to play Moorhead next week.
This week: Idle
2. St Thomas Academy (5-3) [3-0]
The Cadets showed this past week they can play with anyone in the state; one of two teams to outshoot East this season and played them closer than anyone yet. They should notch another conference win Thursday and then be tested again in Mahtomedi as they Zephyrs have been playing well lately.
This week: Thurs @ South St Paul, Sat @ Mahtomedi
3. Hermantown (10-0) [7-0]
Hermantown continues to win, but many continue to not be very convincing. There have been more than one week I was planning on moving them up to #1 this season had they played better, but they played lower teams tight. They are probably still the favorite to make it to state, maybe even win, if they can stay out of the box, which has been their #1 problem. 6 of their next 7 games are on the road, which will be a great test for them. Marshall has played both Breck and St Thomas tight; how will the defense and goalie handle Judd Peterson?
This week: Thurs @ Duluth Marshall, Sat @ International Falls
4. Mahtomedi (7-4) [4-2]
It took more than 14 minutes into OT for the Thunderhawks to score on the Zephyrs. Their losses are to Breck and AA teams and beat Rogers by the same margin Hermantown did; how will they do against the Eagles and the Cadets this week?
This week: Tues @ Totino-Grace, Thurs @ Henry Sibley, Sat vs St Thomas
5. Duluth Marshall (8-4) [6-2]
The drop in the rankings this week is due to what Mahtomedi did, not anything the Hilltoppers did wrong. They have an opportunity this week to jump a couple spots; the Hawks have needed to come from behind against teams much worse than Marshall, can Judd get them ahead and keep them ahead?
This week: Tues @ Greenway, Thurs vs Hermantown, Sat @ Rochester Lourdes
6. East Grand Forks (9-2) [6-0]
Another loss against a non-Class A team. The Green Wave will continue to win games and it will continue to be difficult to tell what they mean compared to the rest of the state. One of the games they lost is to a team two section foes beat and the other is to a ND team they play twice more. In their next 5 games they play two ND teams followed by two 8AA teams.
This week: Thurs @ Grand Forks Red River
7. Totino-Grace (6-4) [5-3]
The Eagles didn’t have a winter tournament and their only game was against Red Wing. The only team below them they’ve lost to is Blake and it was in OT. This week against Mahtomedi should be us a better idea of where they should be.
This week: Tues vs Mahtomedi, Thurs vs Robbinsdale Cooper
8. Thief River Falls (8-2-1) [5-2]
Going into the third period at home the Prowlers were beating Hermantown; they’ve also beaten Warroad and Blake. This Tuesday at Moorhead should be a great game.
This week: Tues @ Moorhead, Thurs @ Kittson Central
9. Blake (5-5) [4-1]
The Bears just went 0-3 in the Silver Division of the Schwan Cup while playing no Class A teams and losing to Bemidji by the same GF/GA as EGF did. Only one of their losses is to TRF and they have one goal wins over Delano, Totino and Mahtomedi. Their remaining schedule includes the Tri-City Conference, Lourdes, Hutchinson and Chanhassen. To get much higher they will need others above them to lose…or beat Breck.
This week: Tues vs St Paul Johnson, Fri vs Chanhassen, Sat @ Minnehaha Academy
10. Rogers (6-4) [3-4]
The loss to Little Falls at home right before Christmas doesn’t look great, but they responded with three Schwan Cup wins. They lost to Mahtomedi and Hermantown both by 1 and it took both of them coming from behind to beat the Royals. Two games this week should be wins although it will be tough for them to rise much higher without bad losses from other teams for another month. They should cruise through their Mississippi 8 schedule and play Lourdes and Cathedral in two of their last 4 games.
This week: Tues @ St Louis Park, Thurs @ Cambridge-Isanti
11. Warroad (6-4-1) [4-3]
The early season loss seems to be shaken off. The Warriors will probably be a top 3 seed going into sections as their recently OT losses to EGF and TRF indicate they are not as far behind as once thought. Winning the second time around could definitely still get them the top seed as they also play Marshall and Cathedral this season.
This week: Fri vs St Cloud Tech, Sat vs St Cloud Cathedral
12. Orono (4-4-1) [4-3]
It is tough to tell where the Spartans should be; their early win against Warroad may be wearing off as they lost to Hudson in OT recently. Their Wright County schedule will give them an opportunity to get some wins and play for a top 3 or 2 seed in sections depending on how they can do against Delano.
Tues @ Hutchinson, Thurs vs Waconia
13. Rochester Lourdes (8-3) [6-2]
3 wins, 28 goals, 2 shut outs, 1 city. Not a bad holiday tournament regardless of the opposition. The Eagles have one bad away loss to Little Falls but otherwise have 8 wins against teams they should be beating. The beating St Thomas put on them suggests they won’t be able to do much better this weekend when they host the Hilltoppers.
This week: Sat vs Duluth Marshall
14. St Cloud Cathedral (7-2) [7-2]
The Crusaders have a schedule thus far that is very difficult to tell how good they are, especially after they beating Breck put on them the first game of the season in Duluth. Since then they have taken care of business allowing 1 goal in their last 4 games, the last 3 being shut outs. Three away games this week; if they can win all three they will rise a couple spots next week.
This week: Tues @ Holy Family Catholic, Fri @ Crookston, Sat @ Warroad
15. Delano (7-4) [3-4]
Playing top teams close is a great sign; 3 goal loss to Marshall, 2 goal loss to Breck, and OT losses to Blake and Cathedral. The Tigers are in line for a 3 or 4 seed in sections and they are a team I wouldn’t be surprised to see in the finals. If they can get by Lourdes and Orono they will have a 17 game winning streak going into the section semifinals.
This week: Tues vs Waconia, Thurs @ Mound-Westonka
Section Standings
3A
Marshall (3-0)
New Ulm (1-1)
Hutchinson (0-2)
Luverne (0-1)
Marshall has beaten Luverne, New Ulm and Hutchinson, so they are the favorite at the moment. That being said, their wins over New Ulm and Hutchinson were both by 1 goal and they play New Ulm again. New Ulm and Hutchinson don’t play again, so this is likely to be how the top 4 end up on the season, with the possibility of the top 2 switching when they play against on Feb 2nd.
6A
Alexandria (3-0)
Little Falls (1-1)
Wilmar (0-2)
Prairie Center Area (0-1)
If the season were over today, this is most likely how the top 4 would look.
Alexandria has beating the other 3, each 1 goal games. Little Falls lost a one goal game to Alexandria but recently shut out Wilmar. Little Falls and Prairie Center Area play this week. Looking at their results and upcoming schedules I expect these to be the top 4 with Little Falls winning the second match up with Alexandria and getting the nod for the #1 seed.
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