AA Rankings for 12/2/12
Posted: Sun Dec 02, 2012 9:24 am
We’re over a week into the season, and most teams have a few games on their records now. Not that this makes ranking them any easier; it was one of the most tumultuous first weeks in my memory. While the top few teams were pretty stable, it’s tough to say too much about teams 7-20+ at this point, and the first few weeks are always a tricky mix of early results, expectations, and guesswork. I try to err on the conservative side rather than reading too much into one or two early surprise results, but, of course, it isn’t always easy. Here you go:
1. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (1-0)
-Number One rolled in game one of the season, handling Moorhead with relative ease. The new schedule gets steadily tougher from here, though, as they take on a pair of tighter defensive teams that are both in the top ten, Burnsville and Hill-Murray. We’ll see just how many goals Besse can manage against the Pioneers this time around.
This week: Thurs vs. #9 Burnsville, Sat vs. #5 Hill-Murray
2. Edina (5-0)
-The Hornets raced out to a big start and did it in style, destroying some decent teams in the process. The 3-0 Wayzata win was the only one that might be considered close. We know they won’t play Benilde during the regular season, so the big question becomes this: do we consider bumping them up to #1, even without a Benilde loss? I’d certainly entertain the idea if Benilde starts to show any signs of vulnerability, though not before Edina plays Eden Prairie in the Edina Holiday Classic, at the earliest. Their rather awkward schedule leaves them with only one more game before that tournament: a visit to Prior Lake this Tuesday, which has a chance to be interesting, though having five games under their belt versus the Lakers’ zero is a big advantage.
This week: Tues at #12 Prior Lake
3. Eden Prairie (2-0)
-The win over Anoka was a bit closer than they probably would have liked, but the Eagles took care of business during their undemanding opening week. Now it’s time to give this team some more substantial tests, as they take on rugged Burnsville and a somewhat unknown in Holy Angels.
This week: Tues vs. #9 Burnsville, Sat at Holy Angels
4. Minnetonka (3-0)
-The Skippers coasted to three fairly easy wins this past week, outscoring their opponents by a combined score of 18-3. Now it’s time to test this team, as they welcome Eagan and St. Thomas Academy to Pagel; two wins means they probably belong with the three teams above them among the elite, while a loss or two would leave them somewhere in the mess behind them.
This week: Tues vs. #8 Eagan, Thurs vs. St. Thomas Academy
5. Hill-Murray (2-0)
-The Pioneers didn’t exactly overwhelm either of their first two opponents, but two wins over other top teams deserve to be recognized, and they stay at #5. Once again, this program has shown its incredible ability to reload; we’ll see how they come along as the season goes on. After a likely W against Lakeville South, they visit their opponents in last year’s title game, where the Pioneer power play will look to restore its good name.
This week: Tues vs. Lakeville South, Sat at #1 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
6. Duluth East (1-0)
-As expected, the Hounds steamrolled Cambridge to win their opener. The schedule grows steadily more difficult from here, as they hit the road to face a middling Anoka team, followed by their first real test against a Wayzata team that has been very busy in the early going. As Wayzata has already dispatched of two 7AA opponents, that game gives East a chance to grab early frontrunner status in the section.
This week: Tues at Anoka, Sat at #7 Wayzata
7. Wayzata (4-1)
-This seems rather lofty for such an inexperienced team, and there are some easy ways to explain away their narrow wins this past week: Andover and Elk River were both playing their first games, while the Trojans were playing their fourth and fifth; that narrow Rosemount win doesn’t exactly inspire a ton of confidence, either. But this is a very hard spot to fill in the rankings, and I’m going to prioritize results here, since no one else really has any significant credentials for the #7 spot. They now continue their busy start to the year, hosting improving Eastview and Duluth East. A win over the Hounds would likely cement them in the top ten for some time.
This week: Tues vs. Eastview, Sat vs. #6 Duluth East
8. Eagan (1-1)
-An eventful first week for the Wildcats, as they had a more challenging outing against East Ridge than expected, and lost a very tight game to Hill-Murray. It’s hard to know what to make of the East Ridge result yet; it obviously shows 3AA will not be easy, but it’s hard to know whether it reflects more upon East Ridge’s improvement or Eagan’s shortcomings. As with the Wayzata ranking, this seems a bit high, but no one really stands out in this part of the rankings, and the near-even game with Hill deserves some recognition. The challenging early schedule continues this week, with a visit to Minnetonka and a home game against improving Rosemount.
This week: Tues at #4 Minnetonka, Sat vs. Rosemount
9. Burnsville (0-1)
-The Blaze narrowly lost a defensive battle to Hill-Murray, and appeared to survive a scare with the Sheehy injury, though we’ll have to watch his status this week. They didn’t control play in that game, but they were very stout defensively, and had enough spurts to suggest they can hang in there against good teams. But we’ll soon find out; the week ahead is an absolutely brutal one. With visits to Eden Prairie and Benilde, they could easily start next week 1-3 and still be in the same spot in the rankings, depending on how well they play.
This week: Tues at #3 Eden Prairie, Thurs at #1 Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Sat at Eastview
10. Blaine (0-0-1)
-Overcame an ugly first period to control most of the game against Roseau, which wound up as a tie. Not an ideal start, as they were ranked higher than the Rams in the preseason list, but they also showed some resilience and tightened up that inexperienced defense as the game went along. I have more confidence in this team now than I did a week ago, so that’s a decent enough reason to move them up. The Bengals open NWSC play this week, and have a key test against rival Centennial.
This week: Thurs vs. Osseo, Sat at Centennial
11. Elk River (0-1)
-Outshot Wayzata, but couldn’t quite close the deal, and fell in OT in their home opener. If we take the Wayzata ranking seriously that’s a pretty good sign for this team, but we’re going to need a lot more evidence before saying they really do belong this high. A game against section and conference rival Andover provides a great opportunity to truly earn this spot instead of sliding in here by default, as they’ve done in this set of rankings.
This week: Thurs vs. Coon Rapids, Sat at #13 Andover
12. Prior Lake (0-0)
-The Lakers finally open play this Tuesday, and it’s hard to imagine a more difficult start, as they host an Edina team that already has already put five solid wins together. Lakeville South is also on the docket.
This week: Tues vs. #2 Edina, Sat vs. Lakeville South
13. Andover (0-2)
-Tough opening week for the Huskies, as they lost a squeaker to Wayzata and were edged by Centennial despite a heavy advantage in shots on goal. A few bounces and they’re probably 2-0, but the lack of front-line offensive talent may be showing itself in these early losses. The Armstrong game should let them get back on track, and after that it’s a huge home game against Elk River.
This week: Thurs at Robbinsdale Armstrong, Sat vs. #11 Elk River
14. Grand Rapids (1-1)
-Cruised over Bemidji for an opening win, but were shut out by a decent Forest Lake team. It’s hard to know how much to judge them for it, as they were missing both Bischoffs and are a thin team as it is. We’ll stick them here for now and hope they get everyone back shortly. They head back up north this week, and should have a challenging one in the game against Roseau.
This week: Tues vs. Virginia, Fri vs. Roseau, Sat vs. Warroad
15. Cloquet (1-1)
-Started out with a win over Virginia, but an OT road loss to Bloomington Jefferson sets the Jacks back a few spots. The loss revealed some obvious defensive weaknesses that they’ll have to clean up in order to keep pace with other top teams. A three-game week awaits them, with two Class A teams up before their next real test, a road trip to White Bear Lake.
This week: Tues at Proctor, Thurs vs. South St. Paul, Sat at White Bear Lake
Also Worth Watching
Roseau (2-0-1)
-A mostly positive first week for Roseau, as they beat a decent Thief River team, escaped Blaine with a résumé-boosting tie, and blew out Buffalo. They seem to have found themselves a goaltender—an issue in recent years—but the depth is still nowhere near the level of the top AA teams. They head off to the Iron Range this coming weekend, with games at Grand Rapids and Hibbing.
Bloomington Jefferson (1-0)
-There’s a case to put the Jaguars higher since they beat Cloquet, but I’m not going to get too carried away with a single game yet; they had some defensive issues, and one game does not a season make. Still, they’re worth watching a bit more closely; the week ahead is one of their easier ones, though Chanhassen is no longer a total pushover in 2AA.
Moorhead (1-1)
-In the end, the Spuds’ lopsided loss to Benilde isn’t too big a shock; it was a nasty early-season match-up for a team that is rebuilding on the defensive end. But someone has to drop out of the rankings to make way for Wayzata, and with a handful of other teams nipping at the Top 15, it may be generous to keep them this high. The week ahead is not a terribly difficult one, with home games against 8AA rivals Bemidji and Buffalo.
Centennial (1-1)
-A team worth keeping an eye on: the Cougars upset Andover and put up a better fight than most have managed against Edina. In this season’s weak 5AA, that makes them an instant contender. The Blaine game will really help show us how real this team is.
Holy Family (1-1)
-The Fire’s showing in the Wayzata Turkey Trot suggests they truly do belong up here in the top twenty; the loss to Edina was a bit closer than the score made it look, and the win over Maple Grove was convincing, too. Another key test this week against St. Thomas Academy.
Holy Angels (1-0)
-Cruised to victory over Providence Academy; this week, things get a little more interesting, as their one game is a Saturday date with Eden Prairie. Time to learn a lot more about this group.
East Ridge (2-2)
-The Raptors turned some heads in their first week, hanging in there in the Eagan loss and also beating a passable 3AA team in Park. A big game against Cretin this week could decide the early-season frontrunner in the SEC.
Forest Lake (2-0)
-Wins over a pair of 7AA opponents, including ranked Grand Rapids, are a great start for a team that was supposed to be in rebuilding mode. More challenges this week as they face two of the better teams in the SEC, Stillwater and Mounds View. There’s a case for putting them higher, but I want to get a better feel for the still-muddled SEC before getting too ambitious here. Maybe I’m biased against this conference, but it doesn’t exactly have a phenomenal track record in recent years.
Eastview (2-0)
-Comfortable wins over Woodbury and Hastings—who beat Stillwater—are a good sign for the Lightning, so we’ll put them ahead of the rest of the SEC. They could come back down to earth in a hurry with games against Wayzata and Burnsville this week, though.
After that, we have a mountain of SEC teams that haven’t done much to distinguish themselves. Maple Grove has tanked out of the rankings after an 0-3 week with zero close games, but now that the competition is easing up, they may have a chance to move back up; the Lakevilles also hover in here somewhere, and possibly a few South Metro teams that need to show a bit more before we stick their names up here.
There are a bunch of games that should make things a little less muddy this week: five games between teams in the top ten, two of the biggest NWSC games, Roseau-Grand Rapids, and continued SEC play. Get out there and enjoy a few of them.
1. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (1-0)
-Number One rolled in game one of the season, handling Moorhead with relative ease. The new schedule gets steadily tougher from here, though, as they take on a pair of tighter defensive teams that are both in the top ten, Burnsville and Hill-Murray. We’ll see just how many goals Besse can manage against the Pioneers this time around.
This week: Thurs vs. #9 Burnsville, Sat vs. #5 Hill-Murray
2. Edina (5-0)
-The Hornets raced out to a big start and did it in style, destroying some decent teams in the process. The 3-0 Wayzata win was the only one that might be considered close. We know they won’t play Benilde during the regular season, so the big question becomes this: do we consider bumping them up to #1, even without a Benilde loss? I’d certainly entertain the idea if Benilde starts to show any signs of vulnerability, though not before Edina plays Eden Prairie in the Edina Holiday Classic, at the earliest. Their rather awkward schedule leaves them with only one more game before that tournament: a visit to Prior Lake this Tuesday, which has a chance to be interesting, though having five games under their belt versus the Lakers’ zero is a big advantage.
This week: Tues at #12 Prior Lake
3. Eden Prairie (2-0)
-The win over Anoka was a bit closer than they probably would have liked, but the Eagles took care of business during their undemanding opening week. Now it’s time to give this team some more substantial tests, as they take on rugged Burnsville and a somewhat unknown in Holy Angels.
This week: Tues vs. #9 Burnsville, Sat at Holy Angels
4. Minnetonka (3-0)
-The Skippers coasted to three fairly easy wins this past week, outscoring their opponents by a combined score of 18-3. Now it’s time to test this team, as they welcome Eagan and St. Thomas Academy to Pagel; two wins means they probably belong with the three teams above them among the elite, while a loss or two would leave them somewhere in the mess behind them.
This week: Tues vs. #8 Eagan, Thurs vs. St. Thomas Academy
5. Hill-Murray (2-0)
-The Pioneers didn’t exactly overwhelm either of their first two opponents, but two wins over other top teams deserve to be recognized, and they stay at #5. Once again, this program has shown its incredible ability to reload; we’ll see how they come along as the season goes on. After a likely W against Lakeville South, they visit their opponents in last year’s title game, where the Pioneer power play will look to restore its good name.
This week: Tues vs. Lakeville South, Sat at #1 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
6. Duluth East (1-0)
-As expected, the Hounds steamrolled Cambridge to win their opener. The schedule grows steadily more difficult from here, as they hit the road to face a middling Anoka team, followed by their first real test against a Wayzata team that has been very busy in the early going. As Wayzata has already dispatched of two 7AA opponents, that game gives East a chance to grab early frontrunner status in the section.
This week: Tues at Anoka, Sat at #7 Wayzata
7. Wayzata (4-1)
-This seems rather lofty for such an inexperienced team, and there are some easy ways to explain away their narrow wins this past week: Andover and Elk River were both playing their first games, while the Trojans were playing their fourth and fifth; that narrow Rosemount win doesn’t exactly inspire a ton of confidence, either. But this is a very hard spot to fill in the rankings, and I’m going to prioritize results here, since no one else really has any significant credentials for the #7 spot. They now continue their busy start to the year, hosting improving Eastview and Duluth East. A win over the Hounds would likely cement them in the top ten for some time.
This week: Tues vs. Eastview, Sat vs. #6 Duluth East
8. Eagan (1-1)
-An eventful first week for the Wildcats, as they had a more challenging outing against East Ridge than expected, and lost a very tight game to Hill-Murray. It’s hard to know what to make of the East Ridge result yet; it obviously shows 3AA will not be easy, but it’s hard to know whether it reflects more upon East Ridge’s improvement or Eagan’s shortcomings. As with the Wayzata ranking, this seems a bit high, but no one really stands out in this part of the rankings, and the near-even game with Hill deserves some recognition. The challenging early schedule continues this week, with a visit to Minnetonka and a home game against improving Rosemount.
This week: Tues at #4 Minnetonka, Sat vs. Rosemount
9. Burnsville (0-1)
-The Blaze narrowly lost a defensive battle to Hill-Murray, and appeared to survive a scare with the Sheehy injury, though we’ll have to watch his status this week. They didn’t control play in that game, but they were very stout defensively, and had enough spurts to suggest they can hang in there against good teams. But we’ll soon find out; the week ahead is an absolutely brutal one. With visits to Eden Prairie and Benilde, they could easily start next week 1-3 and still be in the same spot in the rankings, depending on how well they play.
This week: Tues at #3 Eden Prairie, Thurs at #1 Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Sat at Eastview
10. Blaine (0-0-1)
-Overcame an ugly first period to control most of the game against Roseau, which wound up as a tie. Not an ideal start, as they were ranked higher than the Rams in the preseason list, but they also showed some resilience and tightened up that inexperienced defense as the game went along. I have more confidence in this team now than I did a week ago, so that’s a decent enough reason to move them up. The Bengals open NWSC play this week, and have a key test against rival Centennial.
This week: Thurs vs. Osseo, Sat at Centennial
11. Elk River (0-1)
-Outshot Wayzata, but couldn’t quite close the deal, and fell in OT in their home opener. If we take the Wayzata ranking seriously that’s a pretty good sign for this team, but we’re going to need a lot more evidence before saying they really do belong this high. A game against section and conference rival Andover provides a great opportunity to truly earn this spot instead of sliding in here by default, as they’ve done in this set of rankings.
This week: Thurs vs. Coon Rapids, Sat at #13 Andover
12. Prior Lake (0-0)
-The Lakers finally open play this Tuesday, and it’s hard to imagine a more difficult start, as they host an Edina team that already has already put five solid wins together. Lakeville South is also on the docket.
This week: Tues vs. #2 Edina, Sat vs. Lakeville South
13. Andover (0-2)
-Tough opening week for the Huskies, as they lost a squeaker to Wayzata and were edged by Centennial despite a heavy advantage in shots on goal. A few bounces and they’re probably 2-0, but the lack of front-line offensive talent may be showing itself in these early losses. The Armstrong game should let them get back on track, and after that it’s a huge home game against Elk River.
This week: Thurs at Robbinsdale Armstrong, Sat vs. #11 Elk River
14. Grand Rapids (1-1)
-Cruised over Bemidji for an opening win, but were shut out by a decent Forest Lake team. It’s hard to know how much to judge them for it, as they were missing both Bischoffs and are a thin team as it is. We’ll stick them here for now and hope they get everyone back shortly. They head back up north this week, and should have a challenging one in the game against Roseau.
This week: Tues vs. Virginia, Fri vs. Roseau, Sat vs. Warroad
15. Cloquet (1-1)
-Started out with a win over Virginia, but an OT road loss to Bloomington Jefferson sets the Jacks back a few spots. The loss revealed some obvious defensive weaknesses that they’ll have to clean up in order to keep pace with other top teams. A three-game week awaits them, with two Class A teams up before their next real test, a road trip to White Bear Lake.
This week: Tues at Proctor, Thurs vs. South St. Paul, Sat at White Bear Lake
Also Worth Watching
Roseau (2-0-1)
-A mostly positive first week for Roseau, as they beat a decent Thief River team, escaped Blaine with a résumé-boosting tie, and blew out Buffalo. They seem to have found themselves a goaltender—an issue in recent years—but the depth is still nowhere near the level of the top AA teams. They head off to the Iron Range this coming weekend, with games at Grand Rapids and Hibbing.
Bloomington Jefferson (1-0)
-There’s a case to put the Jaguars higher since they beat Cloquet, but I’m not going to get too carried away with a single game yet; they had some defensive issues, and one game does not a season make. Still, they’re worth watching a bit more closely; the week ahead is one of their easier ones, though Chanhassen is no longer a total pushover in 2AA.
Moorhead (1-1)
-In the end, the Spuds’ lopsided loss to Benilde isn’t too big a shock; it was a nasty early-season match-up for a team that is rebuilding on the defensive end. But someone has to drop out of the rankings to make way for Wayzata, and with a handful of other teams nipping at the Top 15, it may be generous to keep them this high. The week ahead is not a terribly difficult one, with home games against 8AA rivals Bemidji and Buffalo.
Centennial (1-1)
-A team worth keeping an eye on: the Cougars upset Andover and put up a better fight than most have managed against Edina. In this season’s weak 5AA, that makes them an instant contender. The Blaine game will really help show us how real this team is.
Holy Family (1-1)
-The Fire’s showing in the Wayzata Turkey Trot suggests they truly do belong up here in the top twenty; the loss to Edina was a bit closer than the score made it look, and the win over Maple Grove was convincing, too. Another key test this week against St. Thomas Academy.
Holy Angels (1-0)
-Cruised to victory over Providence Academy; this week, things get a little more interesting, as their one game is a Saturday date with Eden Prairie. Time to learn a lot more about this group.
East Ridge (2-2)
-The Raptors turned some heads in their first week, hanging in there in the Eagan loss and also beating a passable 3AA team in Park. A big game against Cretin this week could decide the early-season frontrunner in the SEC.
Forest Lake (2-0)
-Wins over a pair of 7AA opponents, including ranked Grand Rapids, are a great start for a team that was supposed to be in rebuilding mode. More challenges this week as they face two of the better teams in the SEC, Stillwater and Mounds View. There’s a case for putting them higher, but I want to get a better feel for the still-muddled SEC before getting too ambitious here. Maybe I’m biased against this conference, but it doesn’t exactly have a phenomenal track record in recent years.
Eastview (2-0)
-Comfortable wins over Woodbury and Hastings—who beat Stillwater—are a good sign for the Lightning, so we’ll put them ahead of the rest of the SEC. They could come back down to earth in a hurry with games against Wayzata and Burnsville this week, though.
After that, we have a mountain of SEC teams that haven’t done much to distinguish themselves. Maple Grove has tanked out of the rankings after an 0-3 week with zero close games, but now that the competition is easing up, they may have a chance to move back up; the Lakevilles also hover in here somewhere, and possibly a few South Metro teams that need to show a bit more before we stick their names up here.
There are a bunch of games that should make things a little less muddy this week: five games between teams in the top ten, two of the biggest NWSC games, Roseau-Grand Rapids, and continued SEC play. Get out there and enjoy a few of them.
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