AA Rankings for 1/13/13
Posted: Sun Jan 13, 2013 9:57 am
A tumultuous season filled with parity continues; to give an idea of how convoluted AA is this year, six of the teams in the top ten lost a game this past week, while another had a tie against a team outside the top twenty. We’re going to have some much weaker records than we’re used to at State this year, but that should make for plenty of exciting hockey down the stretch. Lake Conference play kicks off this week, and most of the bigger Metro conferences are now into the second round of games their home-and-home series. Without further ado:
1. Wayzata (13-2)
-After a steady march upward, a win over Hill-Murray pushes the Trojans to the top. Like the team they beat to slip to #1, they haven’t been winning in explosive fashion. But they are playing very smart hockey, and it’s hard to argue with the heap of quality wins they now have. The stakes only get higher now, as their next three games are against Section 6AA foes. A strong run here will go a long way toward solidifying this position.
This week: Thurs vs. #14 Holy Family Catholic, Sat at Eden Prairie
2. Hill-Murray (12-2-1)
-The Pioneers drop from the top spot after losing to Wayzata, but with wins over the two teams immediately below them, they won’t go any lower than #2. The schedule from here on out is significantly easier than it has been, with St. Thomas being the only real elite team left. Their first opponent this week, Lakeville North, has given some good teams decent games throughout the season.
This week: Thurs at Lakeville North, Sat vs. South St. Paul
3. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (10-4)
-It was the sort of week that showed both the Red Knights’ flaws and their great potential; they were shut down effectively by St. Thomas Academy, but thumped Minnetonka in a key 6AA contest. The secondary scoring this season hasn’t been what it was last season, though that may simply be a function of the independent schedule, which doesn’t let third line players pile up points in garbage time. The good news is that, with the explosiveness of their top four forwards in transition, they don’t need a lot of secondary scoring to win, especially with the defense showing signs of improvement. By the standards of their schedule, this week looks pretty easy, though Mounds View is completely untested against good teams, and who knows what the conditions will be like in Grand Rapids.
This week: Tues at Mounds View, Thurs vs. Rochester Century, Sat at Grand Rapids
4. Edina (12-3)
-A 2-1 win over White Bear Lake does little to suggest the Hornets have fixed their recent offensive struggles, and with Wayzata and Benilde picking up big wins, they slide back two spots. It isn’t anything too concerning at this point, but it’s something to watch as they head into Lake play. The Minnetonka game will be an interesting match-up between two teams that haven’t exactly been setting the world on fire lately.
This week: Thurs vs. #7 Minnetonka, Sat at Holy Angels
5. Eagan (10-3-1)
-While we can quibble about the order, the top four are pretty clear; #5, on the other hand, is not an easy spot to fill. The Wildcats lost to Eastview this past week, but with a train wreck in the rankings behind them and no other bad results on their record, this will have to do. It appears they were just unable to bury, and that hasn’t been a consistent problem for this team, so it’s a bit easier to write off than some other teams’ struggles. Still, their hold on this spot is not exactly commanding. They play an important game against Jefferson this week before heading outdoors to face Hibbing.
This week: Tues vs. Apple Valley, Thurs at #12 Bloomington Jefferson, Sat at Hibbing (in Grand Rapids)
6. Duluth East (10-4)
-The loss to Denfeld sets the Hounds back a spot, but they rebounded well with wins over Grand Rapids and Eden Prairie. The consistently strong defense is their obvious strength; they’ve given up exactly one goal in six straight games against top AA teams. Still, their scoring woes came out in the Denfeld game, and in turn affected the defense, as they pressed too far forward and were burned on breakaways. The Hounds have a second straight three-game week, though they’ll be favored comfortably in all three; White Bear should give them their best competition, and the Superior game is never an automatic. They’ve proven they can beat anyone when they’re on; now, they need to show they can take care of business against some of these less daunting teams that have given them some trouble this year.
This week: Tues at White Bear Lake, Thurs vs. Apple Valley, Sat vs. Superior (WI)
7. Minnetonka (9-4-1)
-Losing to Benilde in itself isn’t awful, but the way the Skippers lost certainly raises some eyebrows, as the Red Knights blew them out early on. They were burned far too often on defense, and that is supposed to be this team’s strength; they also struggled to finish, making it difficult to find many positives. Sure, it’s just one game, but the past few weeks have been pretty rocky. We’ll see if they can right the ship in Lake play, beginning with a big trip to Edina on Thursday.
This week: Thurs at #4 Edina, Sat vs. Hopkins
8. Centennial (11-3-1)
-A tie against Andover is not an ideal result, but they have beaten the Huskies twice this season, and there’s just enough uncertainty around them to keep the Cougars from moving. This week’s game against Jefferson is a big one, and will give some clarity among the Northwest Suburban and South Suburban teams battling for positioning in the 8-13 spots.
This week: Thurs at #12 Bloomington Jefferson, Sat at Robbinsdale Armstrong
9. Prior Lake (10-5)
-Pumped out three more low-scoring wins against mid-level competition, which is enough to get the Lakers their first ever top ten appearance. They aren’t flashy about it, but like East they’ve been very consistent with their strong defense; they haven’t given up more than two goals since a mid-December loss to Eagan. Only one game this week, as they pay a visit to a suddenly dangerous Eastview team.
This week: Tues at Eastview
10. Burnsville (7-7-1)
-This is one of the worst records you’ll ever see in the top ten, but all of their losses are to teams ahead of them, they’ve beaten the two teams immediately below them, and they are now done with their brutal nonconference schedule. Most importantly, the win over Jefferson improves their standing in 2AA. Now it’s time to see if they can solidify that record against some South Suburban teams, beginning with the two Lakevilles this week.
This week: Tues vs. Lakeville South, Sat at Lakeville North
11. Blaine (9-4-1)
-Scraped out a narrow win over Elk River, which is a decent sign that they belong right about here in the rankings. They face a streaking Maple Grove team this week, which will probably be their last real test before the all-important rematch with Centennial in early February.
This week: Thurs vs. #15 Maple Grove, Sat at Champlin Park
12. Bloomington Jefferson (10-4)
-The Jaguars’ loss to Burnsville drops them from the top ten for the time being, though they turned around and got a solid win over a decent Lakeville South team. With two top-ten teams on the docket, this week will be a big chance for the Jags to show what they can do.
This week: Tues vs. #8 Centennial, Sat vs. #5 Eagan
13. Elk River (9-7)
-More of the same from the Elks, as they lost a narrow contest to Blaine, but came back with a win over Osseo. This week’s battle with Andover is a big one for a team looking to lock up a seed toward the top of 7AA; it’s also their last game against a section opponent this season.
This week: Tues vs. Andover, Thurs vs. Champlin Park
14. Holy Family (8-3)
-After another narrow win against a middling conference opponent, I’m still not wildly convinced this team deserves to be here, but no one in the next tier of teams is doing much to suggest they belong, so the Fire hold steady at #14. Their schedule finally starts to get going this week, including a huge one against Wayzata.
This week: Tues at Waconia, Thurs at #1 Wayzata, Sat vs. Orono
15. Maple Grove (9-7)
-This week’s game of #15 roulette turns up a surprise in the surging Crimson, who have won six straight. All seven of those losses have been against teams ranked ahead of them, and they have a win over Jefferson as well. Some of the losses have been lopsided, and they’re not wowing anyone with their margins of victory, but there is something to be said for consistency. We’ll see if they can give Blaine a good run, or if we’re rotating someone new through this spot next week.
This week: Thurs at #11 Blaine
The Next Ten
Grand Rapids (9-4-2)
-The Thunderhawks picked up a quality win against Hermantown this past Tuesday, and though they didn’t generate much offense against Duluth East, they kept the game close enough to suggest a rematch in sections could certainly go the other way. The week ahead, meanwhile, is about as big as it gets in Grand Rapids: all three games are at home, and they play a huge section seeding game against Cloquet, their biggest Iron Range Conference rival in Hibbing, and then confront third-ranked Benilde on Pokegama Lake.
Eden Prairie (6-7-1)
-Lost to Duluth East, continuing a recent trend of tight games against good teams, but the results aren’t quite there yet. The game against Wayzata this week is a great chance for them to jump right back into the hunt against a section rival, but they’ll need to find more balance if they want to pull it off.
Mounds View (10-2-2)
-Seem to have recovered from the ugly Stillwater loss, as they’re back to beating Suburban East competition by comfortable margins. The week ahead is a big one; they face their first top ten team in Benilde, a Roseville team that gave them one of their ties, and improving Cretin-Derham Hall.
Cloquet (10-4-1)
-Beat Hibbing, but their game with Eden Prairie got washed out by the January rain, depriving the Jacks of a timely test against a Metro power. That means they’ll hold their ground in the rankings, and now have an interesting week ahead of them, with road trips to face section foe Grand Rapids and surging Duluth Denfeld, whom they defeated in December.
Eastview (10-6)
-A win over Eagan pulls the Lightning into the top twenty conversation, and makes it obvious they’ll be relevant in 3AA as well. There are some sloppy losses on the schedule—Apple Valley, East Ridge, Rosemount—but they’ve also beaten the Lakevilles, and had a couple of close losses to teams in the top 15.
Lakeville South (7-7)
-Continue to plug along at .500, which is enough to keep them atop 1AA. They visit Burnsville this week.
Andover (5-7-1)
-Tying Centennial is a step in the right direction, and all of their losses are to teams in the top 15. Still need to get a quality win, though; a trip to Elk River gives them a chance, and could also have implications in section seeding.
Stillwater (7-5-1)
-Losing to Cretin sets back a team that had been playing well lately. We’ll see if they can regain any momentum against SEC rivals Hastings and Forest Lake; both of whom handed them a loss at the start of the season.
Roseau (9-4-1)
-Lost to rival Warroad in overtime, but got a narrow win over Bemidji, which, coupled with Moorhead’s ugly week, suddenly has the Rams looking pretty good in 8AA. The week ahead will be a major test, with three road games; they take on undefeated East Grand Forks, plus two aspiring 8AA contenders in Brainerd and St. Cloud Tech.
Moorhead (7-8-1)
-The Spuds are taking some real lumps, as they gave up eight in a loss to Brainerd, and fell to Breck in a competitive game. They’ve shown some flashes of potential, but it’s been more bad than good lately. The week ahead is an interesting one, as they play 8A frontrunners East Grand Forks and Warroad.
On the bubble: Brainerd, Cretin-Derham Hall, White Bear Lake
Here’s a trip through the sections; as always, key section games over the next two weeks are listed after the write-up.
1AA
(21) Lakeville South
Lakeville North
-No real movement here since we last checked in on 1AA. A strong end to the season and a win over South could still tip the top seed in North’s favor; they have been consistently decent against good teams this season, despite a 5-9 record. But beyond that, I would expect little to no movement before the end of the season. Mayo remains the class of the Rochester teams, and Farmington should get a decent seed, but it’s hard to expect much more.
Key section games: None
2AA
4 Edina
9 Prior Lake
10 Burnsville
12 Bloomington Jefferson
-After the win over Burnsville, Edina is nearly assured of the top spot here. The race for the 2-4 seeds, on the other hand, could go down to the wire; right now, all three teams are 1-1 against each other, and will all play again before the season is out. Because of that, I’ve put them in the order that they’re ranked for now.
Key section game: 1/22 Jefferson at Prior Lake
3AA
5 Eagan
(20) Eastview
Cretin-Derham Hall
-This section got a bit more interesting this week, with Eastview knocking off Eagan. If the season ended today I’d still give the Wildcats the top spot due to their overall body of work; Eastview does have three losses to other teams in the section, two of which are rather ugly. But if Eastview wins the rematch on February 12, it would be interesting to see which direction the voting goes. Meanwhile, off in the SEC, Cretin is really starting to pick up some steam, and has created some separation from the rest of the pack.
4AA
2 Hill-Murray
(23) Stillwater
(18) Mounds View
Roseville
White Bear Lake
Tartan
-No surprise in the top spot, but there is some healthy intrigue beyond that. Stillwater’s big win over Mounds View has them in position for the 2-seed, but the two meet again in early February, and Mounds View has a strong résumé outside of that loss. Roseville is quietly having a pretty good year, and is currently on pace for the fourth spot, and White Bear, which has had somewhat better results lately, remains capable of making a run. With at least one game between each of those teams left in SEC play (two, for Stillwater-White Bear), nothing is set here. And then there’s Tartan, who has no games against the SEC teams, and a strong record against a weak schedule. They could fall anywhere in spots 2-6, though given their placement in the more comprehensive computer rankings, I’d err on the low side.
Key section games: 1/17 Mounds View at Roseville, 1/22 Stillwater at White Bear Lake, 1/26 White Bear Lake at Mounds View
5AA
11 Blaine
8 Centennial
15 Maple Grove
-Even though Centennial has the better record, Blaine’s win over the Cougars should keep the Bengals in the top spot for seeding purposes, at least for now. Both teams face improving Maple Grove over the next two weeks, which should help tell us if the Crimson are going to be contenders or not. Beyond the top three, this section is very thin.
Key section games: 1/17 Maple Grove at Blaine, 1/24 Centennial at Maple Grove
6AA
1 Wayzata
3 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
7 Minnetonka
14 Holy Family
(17) Eden Prairie
-Benilde’s win over Minnetonka leaves them 2-1 against the other top ten teams here, though they have games with Eden Prairie and Holy Family left on the schedule. The beginning of Lake Conference play will have major implications for this one. There are so many games left among teams in this section that nothing is set in stone; for now we’ll just assume the seedings will line up with the rankings and see where things go from there.
Key section games: 1/17 Holy Family at Wayzata, 1/19 Wayzata at Eden Prairie, 1/24 Minnetonka at Wayzata, 1/26 Eden Prairie at Minnetonka
7AA
6 Duluth East
13 Elk River
(16) Grand Rapids
(19) Cloquet
(22) Andover
-East took another step toward locking up the top seed with the win over Grand Rapids, while the Rapids-Cloquet tie makes for a very important second round this coming week. Despite the loss to Rapids, I’d keep Elk River at #2 if they beat Andover this week and avoid anything too ugly down the stretch. At this point Rapids-Cloquet would seem to decide #3 vs. #4, though a late-season run by Andover or Forest Lake could still complicate things in that part of the seedings, and Cloquet, with three section games remaining, could still move a few spots in either direction.
Key section games: 1/15 Cloquet at Grand Rapids, 1/15 Andover at Elk River, 1/22 Andover at Cloquet, 1/22 Forest Lake at Duluth East
8AA
(24) Roseau
(25) Moorhead
Brainerd
St. Cloud Tech
Bemidji
-Moorhead’s loss to Brainerd blows this section wide open, and though it is a bit deeper, it the 8AA champion will probably be on par with the 1AA champion at State. Brainerd could certainly steal a top two seed with a strong close to the season, though I want to see them back up the Moorhead win before I get too excited about them. The biggest beneficiary of the Spuds’ struggles is probably Roseau, and they have four section games over the next two weeks, including the Moorhead rematch, a trip to St. Cloud, and a home-and-home series with Brainerd. After that stretch, we should be able to make a much more definitive statement. Further down, St. Cloud Tech does have a win over Brainerd and a pretty good record, so they have a shot at a good seed; Bemidji does not have a good record, but has beaten Tech, and lost by only one to Moorhead and Roseau, so they can’t be written off, either.
Key section games: 1/18 Roseau at Brainerd, 1/19 Roseau at St. Cloud Tech, 1/22 Moorhead at Roseau, 1/24 St. Cloud Tech at Brainerd, 1/26 Brainerd at Roesau
There you go...let me know what you think, and enjoy the week ahead.
1. Wayzata (13-2)
-After a steady march upward, a win over Hill-Murray pushes the Trojans to the top. Like the team they beat to slip to #1, they haven’t been winning in explosive fashion. But they are playing very smart hockey, and it’s hard to argue with the heap of quality wins they now have. The stakes only get higher now, as their next three games are against Section 6AA foes. A strong run here will go a long way toward solidifying this position.
This week: Thurs vs. #14 Holy Family Catholic, Sat at Eden Prairie
2. Hill-Murray (12-2-1)
-The Pioneers drop from the top spot after losing to Wayzata, but with wins over the two teams immediately below them, they won’t go any lower than #2. The schedule from here on out is significantly easier than it has been, with St. Thomas being the only real elite team left. Their first opponent this week, Lakeville North, has given some good teams decent games throughout the season.
This week: Thurs at Lakeville North, Sat vs. South St. Paul
3. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (10-4)
-It was the sort of week that showed both the Red Knights’ flaws and their great potential; they were shut down effectively by St. Thomas Academy, but thumped Minnetonka in a key 6AA contest. The secondary scoring this season hasn’t been what it was last season, though that may simply be a function of the independent schedule, which doesn’t let third line players pile up points in garbage time. The good news is that, with the explosiveness of their top four forwards in transition, they don’t need a lot of secondary scoring to win, especially with the defense showing signs of improvement. By the standards of their schedule, this week looks pretty easy, though Mounds View is completely untested against good teams, and who knows what the conditions will be like in Grand Rapids.
This week: Tues at Mounds View, Thurs vs. Rochester Century, Sat at Grand Rapids
4. Edina (12-3)
-A 2-1 win over White Bear Lake does little to suggest the Hornets have fixed their recent offensive struggles, and with Wayzata and Benilde picking up big wins, they slide back two spots. It isn’t anything too concerning at this point, but it’s something to watch as they head into Lake play. The Minnetonka game will be an interesting match-up between two teams that haven’t exactly been setting the world on fire lately.
This week: Thurs vs. #7 Minnetonka, Sat at Holy Angels
5. Eagan (10-3-1)
-While we can quibble about the order, the top four are pretty clear; #5, on the other hand, is not an easy spot to fill. The Wildcats lost to Eastview this past week, but with a train wreck in the rankings behind them and no other bad results on their record, this will have to do. It appears they were just unable to bury, and that hasn’t been a consistent problem for this team, so it’s a bit easier to write off than some other teams’ struggles. Still, their hold on this spot is not exactly commanding. They play an important game against Jefferson this week before heading outdoors to face Hibbing.
This week: Tues vs. Apple Valley, Thurs at #12 Bloomington Jefferson, Sat at Hibbing (in Grand Rapids)
6. Duluth East (10-4)
-The loss to Denfeld sets the Hounds back a spot, but they rebounded well with wins over Grand Rapids and Eden Prairie. The consistently strong defense is their obvious strength; they’ve given up exactly one goal in six straight games against top AA teams. Still, their scoring woes came out in the Denfeld game, and in turn affected the defense, as they pressed too far forward and were burned on breakaways. The Hounds have a second straight three-game week, though they’ll be favored comfortably in all three; White Bear should give them their best competition, and the Superior game is never an automatic. They’ve proven they can beat anyone when they’re on; now, they need to show they can take care of business against some of these less daunting teams that have given them some trouble this year.
This week: Tues at White Bear Lake, Thurs vs. Apple Valley, Sat vs. Superior (WI)
7. Minnetonka (9-4-1)
-Losing to Benilde in itself isn’t awful, but the way the Skippers lost certainly raises some eyebrows, as the Red Knights blew them out early on. They were burned far too often on defense, and that is supposed to be this team’s strength; they also struggled to finish, making it difficult to find many positives. Sure, it’s just one game, but the past few weeks have been pretty rocky. We’ll see if they can right the ship in Lake play, beginning with a big trip to Edina on Thursday.
This week: Thurs at #4 Edina, Sat vs. Hopkins
8. Centennial (11-3-1)
-A tie against Andover is not an ideal result, but they have beaten the Huskies twice this season, and there’s just enough uncertainty around them to keep the Cougars from moving. This week’s game against Jefferson is a big one, and will give some clarity among the Northwest Suburban and South Suburban teams battling for positioning in the 8-13 spots.
This week: Thurs at #12 Bloomington Jefferson, Sat at Robbinsdale Armstrong
9. Prior Lake (10-5)
-Pumped out three more low-scoring wins against mid-level competition, which is enough to get the Lakers their first ever top ten appearance. They aren’t flashy about it, but like East they’ve been very consistent with their strong defense; they haven’t given up more than two goals since a mid-December loss to Eagan. Only one game this week, as they pay a visit to a suddenly dangerous Eastview team.
This week: Tues at Eastview
10. Burnsville (7-7-1)
-This is one of the worst records you’ll ever see in the top ten, but all of their losses are to teams ahead of them, they’ve beaten the two teams immediately below them, and they are now done with their brutal nonconference schedule. Most importantly, the win over Jefferson improves their standing in 2AA. Now it’s time to see if they can solidify that record against some South Suburban teams, beginning with the two Lakevilles this week.
This week: Tues vs. Lakeville South, Sat at Lakeville North
11. Blaine (9-4-1)
-Scraped out a narrow win over Elk River, which is a decent sign that they belong right about here in the rankings. They face a streaking Maple Grove team this week, which will probably be their last real test before the all-important rematch with Centennial in early February.
This week: Thurs vs. #15 Maple Grove, Sat at Champlin Park
12. Bloomington Jefferson (10-4)
-The Jaguars’ loss to Burnsville drops them from the top ten for the time being, though they turned around and got a solid win over a decent Lakeville South team. With two top-ten teams on the docket, this week will be a big chance for the Jags to show what they can do.
This week: Tues vs. #8 Centennial, Sat vs. #5 Eagan
13. Elk River (9-7)
-More of the same from the Elks, as they lost a narrow contest to Blaine, but came back with a win over Osseo. This week’s battle with Andover is a big one for a team looking to lock up a seed toward the top of 7AA; it’s also their last game against a section opponent this season.
This week: Tues vs. Andover, Thurs vs. Champlin Park
14. Holy Family (8-3)
-After another narrow win against a middling conference opponent, I’m still not wildly convinced this team deserves to be here, but no one in the next tier of teams is doing much to suggest they belong, so the Fire hold steady at #14. Their schedule finally starts to get going this week, including a huge one against Wayzata.
This week: Tues at Waconia, Thurs at #1 Wayzata, Sat vs. Orono
15. Maple Grove (9-7)
-This week’s game of #15 roulette turns up a surprise in the surging Crimson, who have won six straight. All seven of those losses have been against teams ranked ahead of them, and they have a win over Jefferson as well. Some of the losses have been lopsided, and they’re not wowing anyone with their margins of victory, but there is something to be said for consistency. We’ll see if they can give Blaine a good run, or if we’re rotating someone new through this spot next week.
This week: Thurs at #11 Blaine
The Next Ten
Grand Rapids (9-4-2)
-The Thunderhawks picked up a quality win against Hermantown this past Tuesday, and though they didn’t generate much offense against Duluth East, they kept the game close enough to suggest a rematch in sections could certainly go the other way. The week ahead, meanwhile, is about as big as it gets in Grand Rapids: all three games are at home, and they play a huge section seeding game against Cloquet, their biggest Iron Range Conference rival in Hibbing, and then confront third-ranked Benilde on Pokegama Lake.
Eden Prairie (6-7-1)
-Lost to Duluth East, continuing a recent trend of tight games against good teams, but the results aren’t quite there yet. The game against Wayzata this week is a great chance for them to jump right back into the hunt against a section rival, but they’ll need to find more balance if they want to pull it off.
Mounds View (10-2-2)
-Seem to have recovered from the ugly Stillwater loss, as they’re back to beating Suburban East competition by comfortable margins. The week ahead is a big one; they face their first top ten team in Benilde, a Roseville team that gave them one of their ties, and improving Cretin-Derham Hall.
Cloquet (10-4-1)
-Beat Hibbing, but their game with Eden Prairie got washed out by the January rain, depriving the Jacks of a timely test against a Metro power. That means they’ll hold their ground in the rankings, and now have an interesting week ahead of them, with road trips to face section foe Grand Rapids and surging Duluth Denfeld, whom they defeated in December.
Eastview (10-6)
-A win over Eagan pulls the Lightning into the top twenty conversation, and makes it obvious they’ll be relevant in 3AA as well. There are some sloppy losses on the schedule—Apple Valley, East Ridge, Rosemount—but they’ve also beaten the Lakevilles, and had a couple of close losses to teams in the top 15.
Lakeville South (7-7)
-Continue to plug along at .500, which is enough to keep them atop 1AA. They visit Burnsville this week.
Andover (5-7-1)
-Tying Centennial is a step in the right direction, and all of their losses are to teams in the top 15. Still need to get a quality win, though; a trip to Elk River gives them a chance, and could also have implications in section seeding.
Stillwater (7-5-1)
-Losing to Cretin sets back a team that had been playing well lately. We’ll see if they can regain any momentum against SEC rivals Hastings and Forest Lake; both of whom handed them a loss at the start of the season.
Roseau (9-4-1)
-Lost to rival Warroad in overtime, but got a narrow win over Bemidji, which, coupled with Moorhead’s ugly week, suddenly has the Rams looking pretty good in 8AA. The week ahead will be a major test, with three road games; they take on undefeated East Grand Forks, plus two aspiring 8AA contenders in Brainerd and St. Cloud Tech.
Moorhead (7-8-1)
-The Spuds are taking some real lumps, as they gave up eight in a loss to Brainerd, and fell to Breck in a competitive game. They’ve shown some flashes of potential, but it’s been more bad than good lately. The week ahead is an interesting one, as they play 8A frontrunners East Grand Forks and Warroad.
On the bubble: Brainerd, Cretin-Derham Hall, White Bear Lake
Here’s a trip through the sections; as always, key section games over the next two weeks are listed after the write-up.
1AA
(21) Lakeville South
Lakeville North
-No real movement here since we last checked in on 1AA. A strong end to the season and a win over South could still tip the top seed in North’s favor; they have been consistently decent against good teams this season, despite a 5-9 record. But beyond that, I would expect little to no movement before the end of the season. Mayo remains the class of the Rochester teams, and Farmington should get a decent seed, but it’s hard to expect much more.
Key section games: None
2AA
4 Edina
9 Prior Lake
10 Burnsville
12 Bloomington Jefferson
-After the win over Burnsville, Edina is nearly assured of the top spot here. The race for the 2-4 seeds, on the other hand, could go down to the wire; right now, all three teams are 1-1 against each other, and will all play again before the season is out. Because of that, I’ve put them in the order that they’re ranked for now.
Key section game: 1/22 Jefferson at Prior Lake
3AA
5 Eagan
(20) Eastview
Cretin-Derham Hall
-This section got a bit more interesting this week, with Eastview knocking off Eagan. If the season ended today I’d still give the Wildcats the top spot due to their overall body of work; Eastview does have three losses to other teams in the section, two of which are rather ugly. But if Eastview wins the rematch on February 12, it would be interesting to see which direction the voting goes. Meanwhile, off in the SEC, Cretin is really starting to pick up some steam, and has created some separation from the rest of the pack.
4AA
2 Hill-Murray
(23) Stillwater
(18) Mounds View
Roseville
White Bear Lake
Tartan
-No surprise in the top spot, but there is some healthy intrigue beyond that. Stillwater’s big win over Mounds View has them in position for the 2-seed, but the two meet again in early February, and Mounds View has a strong résumé outside of that loss. Roseville is quietly having a pretty good year, and is currently on pace for the fourth spot, and White Bear, which has had somewhat better results lately, remains capable of making a run. With at least one game between each of those teams left in SEC play (two, for Stillwater-White Bear), nothing is set here. And then there’s Tartan, who has no games against the SEC teams, and a strong record against a weak schedule. They could fall anywhere in spots 2-6, though given their placement in the more comprehensive computer rankings, I’d err on the low side.
Key section games: 1/17 Mounds View at Roseville, 1/22 Stillwater at White Bear Lake, 1/26 White Bear Lake at Mounds View
5AA
11 Blaine
8 Centennial
15 Maple Grove
-Even though Centennial has the better record, Blaine’s win over the Cougars should keep the Bengals in the top spot for seeding purposes, at least for now. Both teams face improving Maple Grove over the next two weeks, which should help tell us if the Crimson are going to be contenders or not. Beyond the top three, this section is very thin.
Key section games: 1/17 Maple Grove at Blaine, 1/24 Centennial at Maple Grove
6AA
1 Wayzata
3 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
7 Minnetonka
14 Holy Family
(17) Eden Prairie
-Benilde’s win over Minnetonka leaves them 2-1 against the other top ten teams here, though they have games with Eden Prairie and Holy Family left on the schedule. The beginning of Lake Conference play will have major implications for this one. There are so many games left among teams in this section that nothing is set in stone; for now we’ll just assume the seedings will line up with the rankings and see where things go from there.
Key section games: 1/17 Holy Family at Wayzata, 1/19 Wayzata at Eden Prairie, 1/24 Minnetonka at Wayzata, 1/26 Eden Prairie at Minnetonka
7AA
6 Duluth East
13 Elk River
(16) Grand Rapids
(19) Cloquet
(22) Andover
-East took another step toward locking up the top seed with the win over Grand Rapids, while the Rapids-Cloquet tie makes for a very important second round this coming week. Despite the loss to Rapids, I’d keep Elk River at #2 if they beat Andover this week and avoid anything too ugly down the stretch. At this point Rapids-Cloquet would seem to decide #3 vs. #4, though a late-season run by Andover or Forest Lake could still complicate things in that part of the seedings, and Cloquet, with three section games remaining, could still move a few spots in either direction.
Key section games: 1/15 Cloquet at Grand Rapids, 1/15 Andover at Elk River, 1/22 Andover at Cloquet, 1/22 Forest Lake at Duluth East
8AA
(24) Roseau
(25) Moorhead
Brainerd
St. Cloud Tech
Bemidji
-Moorhead’s loss to Brainerd blows this section wide open, and though it is a bit deeper, it the 8AA champion will probably be on par with the 1AA champion at State. Brainerd could certainly steal a top two seed with a strong close to the season, though I want to see them back up the Moorhead win before I get too excited about them. The biggest beneficiary of the Spuds’ struggles is probably Roseau, and they have four section games over the next two weeks, including the Moorhead rematch, a trip to St. Cloud, and a home-and-home series with Brainerd. After that stretch, we should be able to make a much more definitive statement. Further down, St. Cloud Tech does have a win over Brainerd and a pretty good record, so they have a shot at a good seed; Bemidji does not have a good record, but has beaten Tech, and lost by only one to Moorhead and Roseau, so they can’t be written off, either.
Key section games: 1/18 Roseau at Brainerd, 1/19 Roseau at St. Cloud Tech, 1/22 Moorhead at Roseau, 1/24 St. Cloud Tech at Brainerd, 1/26 Brainerd at Roesau
There you go...let me know what you think, and enjoy the week ahead.