PuckRanger wrote:
I can give you a better take of what is happening at the youth level in most of these towns. To give you and idea of numbers, here are the populations they draw from and how many teams the IRC's youth associations are fielding this year from Varsity down to Mites (Yes, I know the Varsity/JV is not really part of the association.):
Hibbing/Chisholm: (population 21,337) 12 Teams; Varsity, JV, Bantam AA, Bantam B, Peewee AA, Peewee B, 3 Squirt B, 3 Mite
Grand Rapids: (population 10,869) 18 Teams; Varsity, JV, Junior Gold, Bantam AA, Bantam B, Bantam B2, Peewee AA, Peewee B, Peewee B2, Squirt A, 3 Squirt B, 5 Mite
Eveleth-Gilbert/Mesabi East: (population 10,185) 14 Teams; Varsity, JV, Bantam A, Bantam B, Peewee A, 2 Peewee B, 2 Squirt B(Eveleth) 1 Squirt B(Mesabi East), 2 Mite (Eveleth), 2 Mite (Mesabi East)
Virginia: (population 8,645) 12 Teams; Varsity, JV, Bantam A, Peewee A, 2 Peewee B, 3 Squirt B, 3 Mite
International Falls: (population 6,424) 11 Teams; Varsity, JV, Bantam A, Bantam B, Peewee A, Peewee B, 2 Squirt B, 3 Mites
Greenway: (population 4,472) 10 Teams; Varsity, JV, Bantam A, Bantam B, Peewee A, Peewee B, 2 Squirt B, 2 Mite
Now take that in comparison with say Osseo-Maple Grove, who has more than 50 teams and more teams at the Mite level as all of the Range associations have in their entire program... Its not hard to see how the metro teams have taken over. Its not a hockey problem... its numbers. Those associations have grown and the Range ones have shrunk. If you were to combine all of the Range associations, you would have comparable numbers to the large metro programs... and probably a very deep powerhouse hockey team every year, but still with a smaller population base than the metro cities and even Duluth for that matter, which when you think about it is pretty impressive. What is also impressive is that except for Greenway, all of these associations have access to two or three sheets of indoor ice to use.
As far as where these teams are headed, competitiveness varies from level to level, but at the Bantam level, Hibbing, Grand Rapids and Greenway are the better teams that appear to be able to compete with anybody on any given day.
Its Virginia and Grand Rapids in Peewees. The rest are far behind.
And at squirts (for what its worth), Its Virginia, Grand Rapids, Eveleth-Gilbert, and International Falls. Virginia and Grand Rapids seem to be deeper with talent though.
While this is purely speculative due to the nature of how things change as players go up the ladder, it seems as if Hibbing/Chisholm drops off the radar after Bantams as does Greenway and you can see a flash perhaps coming for Eveleth-Gilbert/Mesabi East and International Falls - but there's a long way to go for that to develop entirely. What looks for sure is that Virginia will be back and Grand Rapids will remain strong. When you look at it pound for pound, Hibbing's numbers are pretty weak in comparison with the rest of the Range. Eveleth has yet to prove they have remedied the issues within their program that retains and develops quality players all the way up... They have the most kids in their program next to Grand Rapids when you factor in Mesabi East, but continue to struggle at the varsity level. Greenway has the obvious disadvantage with the smallest pool to pick from and being geographically spread out over a handful of small towns.
There is nothing in sight, however that points to this being a dominant conference again in the future. As usual it will be two, maybe three quality teams year after year. With any luck, there might be four in about 7 years, but that will likely be a one-year deal if it does play out.
While I do agree with 99% of your takes. Puck Ranger, there is one statement that I must clarify a bit. (Because you and I are Virginia and Hibbing rubes, respectively, and it is fun to have some rivalry banter.)
I don't agree with your statement "When you look at it pound for pound, Hibbing's numbers are pretty weak in comparison with the rest of the Range." You paint Hibbing as some IRC metropolis that fails to produce hockey success commensurate with their size. Let's take a look at how this assertion is exaggerated to make Hibbing look bad while simultaneously making Virginia look good.
You used total population numbers to determine the size of the talent pool for each IRC program, but that really doesn't provide an accurate picture of what each program is really working with. (Not to mention that you conveniently neglected to add the Mountain Iron-Buhl populations to the Virginia population, despite making sure you had all the other cooperative programs added up fully. If you add in MI-B, the VMIB population is 12,514, moving the Blue Devils up from "poor little " 4th to "IRC behemoth" 2nd on your list; a number significantly larger than powerhouse Grand Rapids.)
School enrollment is the number to look at. Here are the IRC enrollments:
1. Grand Rapids 941
2. Hibbing-Chisholm 764
3. Eveleth-Gilbert-Mesabi East-Cherry 588
4. Virginia-Mountain Iron-Buhl 533
5. Greenway-Nashwauk-Keewatin 368
6. International Falls 340
At first glance, it would appear Hibbing has a decided enrollment advantage over the teams below them, but one has to realize that Chisholm is 100% a basketball community and therefore contributes very little to the H-C hockey program. (When H-C made it to the state semis in 2011 the team had
one Chisholm kid that got regular playing time.)
Given this, Hibbing's enrollment for hockey purposes is not much higher than the 597 that Hibbing by itself is.
So Hibbing's effective enrollment is perhaps 100 greater than VMIB, and I would say that the success of Hibbing and Virginia over the last decade mirrors that difference pretty closely. In other words, I think both communities are getting the same ratio of talent from their available kids.
Looking at enrollment numbers, I would say the Eveleth cooperative is the least effective pound for pound. They have an enrollment even larger than VMIB yet they usually are not remotely competitive with the top 5 teams in 7A. (I will refrain from making a joke referring to VMIB's 3-3 tie with E-G this season.)
I would also have to say that I-Falls is the most effective pound for pound. Before this lost season, I-Falls was right there with VMIB, H-C, Denfeld, and they always gave Marshall all they could handle. They were highly competitive despite having fewer kids than freaking Greenway! Too bad the bottom seems to have fallen out with the paper mill layoffs.
As for Hibbing, they continue to produce solid teams, and they were on track to be a much better team this season before academic/disciplinary/transfer issues took their 3 "Elite" level players off the team. Their Bantam AA team is ranked #10 by Youth Hockey Hub, so they should at least have a solid chance of taking down Hermantown or Marshall over the next few seasons, which is nice.
You are right, the younger levels don't look as bright for Hibbing as they do for VMIB and GR (obviously). But new Hibbing varsity coach Versich has said that he plans to "revamp the entire youth program", so hopefully he can spearhead a new commitment to bolstering the association. Hibbing is also the only non-GR IRC team to opt up and play AA at the youth levels, so a lack of success in youth years may not correlate to a lack of success once they get to high school.
I appreciate all your insight into IRC hockey, Puck Ranger, you know 1,000 times more than I do about it. But I can't resist chiming in when I see you take veiled shots at my Blue Jackets. I also like to take shots at your Blue Devils, and it's fun when you respond to my takes also.
Virginia and Hibbing appear to be very evenly matched teams this season. Virginia has better offense, Hibbing has better defense, and while Virginia's goaltending has been outstanding at times, I'd say Hibbing's has been more consistent. Should be a great couple games this season!
