AA Rankings for 12/7/2014
Posted: Sun Dec 07, 2014 10:20 am
Here’s week two of rankings. Once again, the top teams seem relatively clear, and after that it’s an utter mess. As usual, I’m erring on the side of caution, trying not to overreact to one good or bad result or push a team too high because they’re beating a bunch of lower-level teams. The goal here is to not be a slave to A-beat-B-so-A-has-to-be-better-than-B logic.
1. Lakeville North (2-0)
-A big win over Edina gives the Panthers some measure of revenge after last year’s state final, and boosts them to the top spot. With three top-flight defensemen in front of Edquist in goal, they should be very tough to crack when they’re on their game. It’s hard to be definitive after just two games, though, and their schedule gets going in earnest this week, with two more quality opponents on the docket.
This week: Tues vs. Apple Valley, Thurs vs. #10 Burnsville, Sat at #11 Grand Rapids
2. Edina (5-1-1)
-While the Hornets are destroying everyone they face outside of the top ten, they’ve failed to win their two games against other quality teams. At this point in the season that’s not a serious concern, but it’s something to keep an eye on; they need to be able to win the close ones, which they’ve haven’t had too many of in recent playoff games. They have nearly two weeks to sort out the results of these first few weeks ahead of their holiday tournament.
This week: Idle
3. St. Thomas Academy (2-0)
-The Cadets, beneficiaries of a soft early schedule, slide up a spot while everyone else gets tangled up in a web of wins and losses. Their game with Minnetonka this week is the only thing resembling a real test in the first month of the season—though Minnetonka just lost to Armstrong/Cooper, so even that might not be much of one.
This week: Thurs vs. Hastings, Sat at Minnetonka
4. Hill-Murray (2-0)
-A come-from-behind win versus Benilde has the Pioneers moving up the board some. They’re not as deep offensively as the top couple teams, but with their defense and top line, they’re going to be a force. Two Class A teams are up this week, including a Mahtomedi team that’s looked pretty good so far.
This week: Tues vs. Hibbing, Sat vs. Mahtomedi
5. Wayzata (5-1-1)
-The Trojans had a strong week with wins over Eagan and Lakeville South, and thereby stake out a spot in the top 5. They play just one game in each of the next three weeks, the first coming against a rising Andover team.
This week: Tues at Andover
6. Elk River (3-1)
-The Elks continue to amass the goals, putting up 11 in both of their wins this week, but they’re still giving things up a pretty high rate, too. After a few more fairly easy games, a battle with Blaine looms on Saturday.
This week: Tues at Spring Lake Park, Thurs at Anoka, Sat vs. Blaine
7. Eden Prairie (4-0)
-The Eagles are off to a perfect start, with all of their wins coming against passably good opposition. That stretch of quality opponents continues this week, as they face Cretin and then host Benilde in the first major 6AA positioning battle of the season.
This week: Tues at Cretin-Derham Hall, Fri vs. #8 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
8. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (2-2)
-Not a good week for the Red Knights, as they tumbled against Burnsville and let one get away against Hill. There’s plenty of depth here and they move the puck well, but they need to find some chemistry and shore things up in their own zone. We’ll get a sense of what direction they’re going in the Eden Prairie game.
This week: Fri at #7 Eden Prairie
9. Prior Lake (1-1-1)
-A slight reach, perhaps, but no one else is really standing out here, and they won comfortably against a decent Jefferson team to improve their standing in 2AA. In addition to being an important section seeding battle, this week’s game with Burnsville will give some clarity to the part of the rankings behind the consensus top eight.
This week: Tues at Chanhassen, Thurs at Eagan, Sat at #10 Burnsville
10. Burnsville (2-2)
-It was a confusing week for the Blaze, as they buried six goals in a win over Benilde and then lost to a Minnetonka team that just fell to Robbinsdale. Given their close loss to Hill and the equally flat performances by the teams around them, they get some benefit of the doubt for now. We’ll see if that’s justified in the big week ahead, as they take a crack at the new #1 and then face Prior Lake in a key 2AA seeding battle.
This week: Thurs at #1 Lakeville North, Sat vs. #8 Prior Lake
11. Grand Rapids (4-1)
-Laid an egg against Warroad after rolling through their first four games of the season. There’s still plenty of reason for optimism given their offensive performances, but they have yet to play a real top-line opponent. That changes this week, when Lakeville North comes to town; before that, they have to handle Duluth Marshall, which is off to a strong start as well.
This week: Fri vs. Duluth Marshall, Sat vs. #1 Lakeville North
12. Duluth East (1-1-1)
-Puttering along to start the season, as they had an adventurous win over Superior and failed to put away Andover. We’ve seen this December script before from the Hounds, but it also shows they’re not quite a cohesive unit yet. Two more potentially troublesome 7AA opponents are up this week, including archrival Cloquet, who beat them last February.
This week: Thurs vs. Cloquet, Sat vs. St. Michael-Albertville
13. White Bear Lake (3-0)
-The Bears make their debut in the top 15 after a third straight convincing win. They have yet to be seriously tested—and may not be until a January game against Edina—but as long as they pile up wins with style points, they can crack the rankings. Two more SEC opponents are up this week.
This week: Thurs at Forest Lake, Sat at Woodbury
14. Holy Family (3-2)
-Cruised past Holy Angels, but a rough loss to Breck has the Fire treading water. When things go wrong for this team, they seem to go very wrong. A 3-game week awaits, including a top-10 class A team and a possible challenge against Moorhead.
This week: Tues vs. New Prague, Thurs vs. Mound-Westonka, Sat at Moorhead
15. Lakeville South (0-1-1)
-This is pretty much a throwaway pick, but the tie with Prior Lake looks good with the Lakers edging up, and the loss to Wayzata isn’t a bad result, either. The Eastview game this week should be immediate indication as to whether they belong here.
This week: Thurs vs. Eastview, Sat at Shakopee
On the Bubble
Farmington (3-2)
-Took care of a couple of Rochester teams, but were shut out by Eden Prairie. Their next few weeks are on the softer side, so we’ll see if they can pile up some solid wins to solidify their standing as a contender.
Andover (2-0-1)
-A tie with Duluth East is a nice boost for the Huskies; while they were outshot heavily, Maddie Rooney looks to be the real deal. The challenges pick up this week, with Wayzata on Tuesday followed by games with Maple Grove and Centennial.
Maple Grove (2-4)
-A win over Blaine is a step in the right direction, and while some of their losses have been ugly, they all were to better teams. They can continue their progress if they can do something against Andover this week.
Blaine (2-2)
-Followed a strong win over Totino with a loss to Maple Grove. A huge week involving Centennial and Elk River will tell us if these early losses are fluky, or proof that they just aren’t a top-15 team.
Centennial (2-1)
-The Cougars round out this string of Northwest Suburban teams; their lone loss was to Edina, and their wins, while not flashy, are wins. They now embark on a very tough stretch of games, beginning with Blaine and Andover this week.
Watch list: Bemidji, Moorhead, Hopkins, Minnetonka, Cretin-Derham Hall, Eastview, St. Michael-Albertville
Here are a few comments on each section. I won’t bother to try seeding teams at this point, but this gives a decent idea of where we stand.
1AA
-Lakeville North is the obvious frontrunner, but Farmington’s close game and decent start has them in good position. Lakeville South has potential but needs to get a few more games in the books, and Rochester Century looks to be the best of the rest.
2AA
-Edina is #1, as usual, and this week’s Burnsville-Prior Lake game will give someone the inside track for #2. There isn’t much clarity beyond that yet.
3AA
-So far, it looks like there might be a pretty big gap between St. Thomas and the field. Cretin staked a claim to #2 with a narrow victory over Eastview; they could be trouble once they’re healthy, but it’s been a slow start otherwise. Not much to write home about beyond that so far.
4AA
-After last season’s surprise, this section is reverting to norm at the start: Hill looks strong, White Bear looks like they could be a real threat, and Stillwater has yet to really get on track. Roseville clipped the Ponies on Saturday and is the other likely top-4 seed.
5AA
-There’s no one in the top 15 here, but it does look like a wide-open three-way race, at the very least. This section seems to be getting progressively weaker.
6AA
-I’d label Wayzata the tentative frontrunner at the moment here, while this week’s Benilde-Eden Prairie game will give us an early #2 and #3. Until Holy Family does a bit more, I’d call it a three-horse race. There’s been some interesting action outside of the top 15, too; Hopkins knocked off Hermantown and is off to a decent start, while Minnetonka has a Jekyll and Hyde act going, and Armstrong/Cooper proved they won’t be a doormat.
7AA
-With East and Rapids both tripping up on Saturday, Elk River moves ahead of the field for now. While thin, Andover has shown it can hang with at least one of the big three. Cloquet took some lumps this past week, and we’re still waiting for a clearer verdict on St. Michael-Albertville. Elk River and Grand Rapids will face off in Edina next week in a pivotal seeding game.
8AA
-Bemidji made a statement with a win over Moorhead, and the Spuds have done reasonably well beyond that game, so we have a clear top two. After that, it’s pretty much a free-for-all at this point.
1. Lakeville North (2-0)
-A big win over Edina gives the Panthers some measure of revenge after last year’s state final, and boosts them to the top spot. With three top-flight defensemen in front of Edquist in goal, they should be very tough to crack when they’re on their game. It’s hard to be definitive after just two games, though, and their schedule gets going in earnest this week, with two more quality opponents on the docket.
This week: Tues vs. Apple Valley, Thurs vs. #10 Burnsville, Sat at #11 Grand Rapids
2. Edina (5-1-1)
-While the Hornets are destroying everyone they face outside of the top ten, they’ve failed to win their two games against other quality teams. At this point in the season that’s not a serious concern, but it’s something to keep an eye on; they need to be able to win the close ones, which they’ve haven’t had too many of in recent playoff games. They have nearly two weeks to sort out the results of these first few weeks ahead of their holiday tournament.
This week: Idle
3. St. Thomas Academy (2-0)
-The Cadets, beneficiaries of a soft early schedule, slide up a spot while everyone else gets tangled up in a web of wins and losses. Their game with Minnetonka this week is the only thing resembling a real test in the first month of the season—though Minnetonka just lost to Armstrong/Cooper, so even that might not be much of one.
This week: Thurs vs. Hastings, Sat at Minnetonka
4. Hill-Murray (2-0)
-A come-from-behind win versus Benilde has the Pioneers moving up the board some. They’re not as deep offensively as the top couple teams, but with their defense and top line, they’re going to be a force. Two Class A teams are up this week, including a Mahtomedi team that’s looked pretty good so far.
This week: Tues vs. Hibbing, Sat vs. Mahtomedi
5. Wayzata (5-1-1)
-The Trojans had a strong week with wins over Eagan and Lakeville South, and thereby stake out a spot in the top 5. They play just one game in each of the next three weeks, the first coming against a rising Andover team.
This week: Tues at Andover
6. Elk River (3-1)
-The Elks continue to amass the goals, putting up 11 in both of their wins this week, but they’re still giving things up a pretty high rate, too. After a few more fairly easy games, a battle with Blaine looms on Saturday.
This week: Tues at Spring Lake Park, Thurs at Anoka, Sat vs. Blaine
7. Eden Prairie (4-0)
-The Eagles are off to a perfect start, with all of their wins coming against passably good opposition. That stretch of quality opponents continues this week, as they face Cretin and then host Benilde in the first major 6AA positioning battle of the season.
This week: Tues at Cretin-Derham Hall, Fri vs. #8 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
8. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (2-2)
-Not a good week for the Red Knights, as they tumbled against Burnsville and let one get away against Hill. There’s plenty of depth here and they move the puck well, but they need to find some chemistry and shore things up in their own zone. We’ll get a sense of what direction they’re going in the Eden Prairie game.
This week: Fri at #7 Eden Prairie
9. Prior Lake (1-1-1)
-A slight reach, perhaps, but no one else is really standing out here, and they won comfortably against a decent Jefferson team to improve their standing in 2AA. In addition to being an important section seeding battle, this week’s game with Burnsville will give some clarity to the part of the rankings behind the consensus top eight.
This week: Tues at Chanhassen, Thurs at Eagan, Sat at #10 Burnsville
10. Burnsville (2-2)
-It was a confusing week for the Blaze, as they buried six goals in a win over Benilde and then lost to a Minnetonka team that just fell to Robbinsdale. Given their close loss to Hill and the equally flat performances by the teams around them, they get some benefit of the doubt for now. We’ll see if that’s justified in the big week ahead, as they take a crack at the new #1 and then face Prior Lake in a key 2AA seeding battle.
This week: Thurs at #1 Lakeville North, Sat vs. #8 Prior Lake
11. Grand Rapids (4-1)
-Laid an egg against Warroad after rolling through their first four games of the season. There’s still plenty of reason for optimism given their offensive performances, but they have yet to play a real top-line opponent. That changes this week, when Lakeville North comes to town; before that, they have to handle Duluth Marshall, which is off to a strong start as well.
This week: Fri vs. Duluth Marshall, Sat vs. #1 Lakeville North
12. Duluth East (1-1-1)
-Puttering along to start the season, as they had an adventurous win over Superior and failed to put away Andover. We’ve seen this December script before from the Hounds, but it also shows they’re not quite a cohesive unit yet. Two more potentially troublesome 7AA opponents are up this week, including archrival Cloquet, who beat them last February.
This week: Thurs vs. Cloquet, Sat vs. St. Michael-Albertville
13. White Bear Lake (3-0)
-The Bears make their debut in the top 15 after a third straight convincing win. They have yet to be seriously tested—and may not be until a January game against Edina—but as long as they pile up wins with style points, they can crack the rankings. Two more SEC opponents are up this week.
This week: Thurs at Forest Lake, Sat at Woodbury
14. Holy Family (3-2)
-Cruised past Holy Angels, but a rough loss to Breck has the Fire treading water. When things go wrong for this team, they seem to go very wrong. A 3-game week awaits, including a top-10 class A team and a possible challenge against Moorhead.
This week: Tues vs. New Prague, Thurs vs. Mound-Westonka, Sat at Moorhead
15. Lakeville South (0-1-1)
-This is pretty much a throwaway pick, but the tie with Prior Lake looks good with the Lakers edging up, and the loss to Wayzata isn’t a bad result, either. The Eastview game this week should be immediate indication as to whether they belong here.
This week: Thurs vs. Eastview, Sat at Shakopee
On the Bubble
Farmington (3-2)
-Took care of a couple of Rochester teams, but were shut out by Eden Prairie. Their next few weeks are on the softer side, so we’ll see if they can pile up some solid wins to solidify their standing as a contender.
Andover (2-0-1)
-A tie with Duluth East is a nice boost for the Huskies; while they were outshot heavily, Maddie Rooney looks to be the real deal. The challenges pick up this week, with Wayzata on Tuesday followed by games with Maple Grove and Centennial.
Maple Grove (2-4)
-A win over Blaine is a step in the right direction, and while some of their losses have been ugly, they all were to better teams. They can continue their progress if they can do something against Andover this week.
Blaine (2-2)
-Followed a strong win over Totino with a loss to Maple Grove. A huge week involving Centennial and Elk River will tell us if these early losses are fluky, or proof that they just aren’t a top-15 team.
Centennial (2-1)
-The Cougars round out this string of Northwest Suburban teams; their lone loss was to Edina, and their wins, while not flashy, are wins. They now embark on a very tough stretch of games, beginning with Blaine and Andover this week.
Watch list: Bemidji, Moorhead, Hopkins, Minnetonka, Cretin-Derham Hall, Eastview, St. Michael-Albertville
Here are a few comments on each section. I won’t bother to try seeding teams at this point, but this gives a decent idea of where we stand.
1AA
-Lakeville North is the obvious frontrunner, but Farmington’s close game and decent start has them in good position. Lakeville South has potential but needs to get a few more games in the books, and Rochester Century looks to be the best of the rest.
2AA
-Edina is #1, as usual, and this week’s Burnsville-Prior Lake game will give someone the inside track for #2. There isn’t much clarity beyond that yet.
3AA
-So far, it looks like there might be a pretty big gap between St. Thomas and the field. Cretin staked a claim to #2 with a narrow victory over Eastview; they could be trouble once they’re healthy, but it’s been a slow start otherwise. Not much to write home about beyond that so far.
4AA
-After last season’s surprise, this section is reverting to norm at the start: Hill looks strong, White Bear looks like they could be a real threat, and Stillwater has yet to really get on track. Roseville clipped the Ponies on Saturday and is the other likely top-4 seed.
5AA
-There’s no one in the top 15 here, but it does look like a wide-open three-way race, at the very least. This section seems to be getting progressively weaker.
6AA
-I’d label Wayzata the tentative frontrunner at the moment here, while this week’s Benilde-Eden Prairie game will give us an early #2 and #3. Until Holy Family does a bit more, I’d call it a three-horse race. There’s been some interesting action outside of the top 15, too; Hopkins knocked off Hermantown and is off to a decent start, while Minnetonka has a Jekyll and Hyde act going, and Armstrong/Cooper proved they won’t be a doormat.
7AA
-With East and Rapids both tripping up on Saturday, Elk River moves ahead of the field for now. While thin, Andover has shown it can hang with at least one of the big three. Cloquet took some lumps this past week, and we’re still waiting for a clearer verdict on St. Michael-Albertville. Elk River and Grand Rapids will face off in Edina next week in a pivotal seeding game.
8AA
-Bemidji made a statement with a win over Moorhead, and the Spuds have done reasonably well beyond that game, so we have a clear top two. After that, it’s pretty much a free-for-all at this point.
