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northwoods oldtimer wrote:Solid rankings Karl. Nice to see the section 8AA teams move into the top 15 now that the dust has settled on a certain over-hyped team out of section 7AA. LN continues its domination in AA. Will anybody get to them this week?

Section 7AA is a 2 dog race with Elks and Hounds chasing. Too many holes in the remaining teams.

Karl East "but this is not a great team."

Where is the DJ?

karl(east) wrote: Grand Rapids (4-7)
-That’s seven losses in a row for the Thunderhawks, and the most recent one, to a middling Cloquet team, is definitely the greatest cause for concern. Their sole quality win is against a Bemidji team that hasn’t played anyone outside of the north. They’re young and there’s still some potential, but this is not a great team. They have an absurd 5-game week ahead of them, though they should get back in the win column; Mahtomedi and Hopkins should test them, and the Andover game has seeding implications.

Traxler wrote:

karl(east) wrote: Grand Rapids (4-7)
-That’s seven losses in a row for the Thunderhawks, and the most recent one, to a middling Cloquet team, is definitely the greatest cause for concern. Their sole quality win is against a Bemidji team that hasn’t played anyone outside of the north. They’re young and there’s still some potential, but this is not a great team. They have an absurd 5-game week ahead of them, though they should get back in the win column; Mahtomedi and Hopkins should test them, and the Andover game has seeding implications.

I'm not sure this is quite accurate. I was told that Koby Bender just returned from injury and had 4 points against Grand Rapids. Apparently the team is a lot better with him than without him. I got this information from someone who said they read it in the Duluth News Tribune. I know, that paper is less reliable than the MN Hockey Hub, but maybe there's something to it and Cloquet is actually better than their record.

Maybe kniven could shed some light for us.

TheHockeyDJ wrote:"this is not a great team" applies to Elk River and East. If Elk River is so great, why did they narrowly beat a limping GR team as Karl put it? Bottom line is 7AA is a 7 team race. Elk River may have the best player in the state, but I wouldn't hang my hat on a team with bad defense and questionable goaltending. Whoever wins 7AA wont last long at state unless they draw Bemidji. Thing is, Northwoods, you are 100% wrong on your take and I agree with where Karl has these teams. If you think Elk River or East have done anything to distance themselves that much I'd like to know how. I'll take Cloquet to upset either East or Elk River in sections. And I'm not giving up on GR, 3-4 seed might work out well for them. Still a lot of upside with young players like Miller, Stampohar, and Stephan developing. Anyways, to say that anyone in 7AA has distanced themselves as a clear favorite is to expose onself as completely incompetent.

TheHockeyDJ wrote:"this is not a great team" applies to Elk River and East. If Elk River is so great, why did they narrowly beat a limping GR team as Karl put it? Bottom line is 7AA is a 7 team race. Elk River may have the best player in the state, but I wouldn't hang my hat on a team with bad defense and questionable goaltending. Whoever wins 7AA wont last long at state unless they draw Bemidji. Thing is, Northwoods, you are 100% wrong on your take and I agree with where Karl has these teams. If you think Elk River or East have done anything to distance themselves that much I'd like to know how. I'll take Cloquet to upset either East or Elk River in sections. And I'm not giving up on GR, 3-4 seed might work out well for them. Still a lot of upside with young players like Miller, Stampohar, and Stephan developing. Anyways, to say that anyone in 7AA has distanced themselves as a clear favorite is to expose onself as completely incompetent.

TheHockeyDJ wrote:Elk River may have the best player in the state, but I wouldn't hang my hat on a team with bad defense and questionable goaltending.

TheHockeyDJ wrote:"this is not a great team" applies to Elk River and East. If Elk River is so great, why did they narrowly beat a limping GR team as Karl put it? Bottom line is 7AA is a 7 team race. Elk River may have the best player in the state, but I wouldn't hang my hat on a team with bad defense and questionable goaltending. Whoever wins 7AA wont last long at state unless they draw Bemidji. Thing is, Northwoods, you are 100% wrong on your take and I agree with where Karl has these teams. If you think Elk River or East have done anything to distance themselves that much I'd like to know how. I'll take Cloquet to upset either East or Elk River in sections. And I'm not giving up on GR, 3-4 seed might work out well for them. Still a lot of upside with young players like Miller, Stampohar, and Stephan developing. Anyways, to say that anyone in 7AA has distanced themselves as a clear favorite is to expose onself as completely incompetent.

rainier wrote:

TheHockeyDJ wrote:"this is not a great team" applies to Elk River and East. If Elk River is so great, why did they narrowly beat a limping GR team as Karl put it? Bottom line is 7AA is a 7 team race. Elk River may have the best player in the state, but I wouldn't hang my hat on a team with bad defense and questionable goaltending. Whoever wins 7AA wont last long at state unless they draw Bemidji. Thing is, Northwoods, you are 100% wrong on your take and I agree with where Karl has these teams. If you think Elk River or East have done anything to distance themselves that much I'd like to know how. I'll take Cloquet to upset either East or Elk River in sections. And I'm not giving up on GR, 3-4 seed might work out well for them. Still a lot of upside with young players like Miller, Stampohar, and Stephan developing. Anyways, to say that anyone in 7AA has distanced themselves as a clear favorite is to expose onself as completely incompetent.

Agreed that there is a lot of upside with the young players on this team. How many seniors play significant roles on this team? 1? 2?

This is why I think GR can be very dangerous come playoff time: They are a super young team and have more room to grow than ER and probably East.

The question is whether they will realize that potential this season. Will their highly touted juniors fill the senior leadership void and lead by example? Will their coach show that he can get the most out of his talent come playoff time?

I still contend that this team is a victim of overly-optimistic expectations. Expecting a team that's 95% juniors and sophomores to come out of the gate and be a top 10 AA squad just isn't realistic. Other than the Cloquet game, is there a game GR has lost that they "should" have won? Warroad perhaps, but Duluth Marshall is an excellent team.

If GR can build some confidence and momentum over the easier part of their schedule, then they can create the chemistry they will need to be a serious contender to go to state.

alcloseshaver wrote:

rainier wrote:

TheHockeyDJ wrote:"this is not a great team" applies to Elk River and East. If Elk River is so great, why did they narrowly beat a limping GR team as Karl put it? Bottom line is 7AA is a 7 team race. Elk River may have the best player in the state, but I wouldn't hang my hat on a team with bad defense and questionable goaltending. Whoever wins 7AA wont last long at state unless they draw Bemidji. Thing is, Northwoods, you are 100% wrong on your take and I agree with where Karl has these teams. If you think Elk River or East have done anything to distance themselves that much I'd like to know how. I'll take Cloquet to upset either East or Elk River in sections. And I'm not giving up on GR, 3-4 seed might work out well for them. Still a lot of upside with young players like Miller, Stampohar, and Stephan developing. Anyways, to say that anyone in 7AA has distanced themselves as a clear favorite is to expose onself as completely incompetent.

Agreed that there is a lot of upside with the young players on this team. How many seniors play significant roles on this team? 1? 2?

This is why I think GR can be very dangerous come playoff time: They are a super young team and have more room to grow than ER and probably East.

The question is whether they will realize that potential this season. Will their highly touted juniors fill the senior leadership void and lead by example? Will their coach show that he can get the most out of his talent come playoff time?

I still contend that this team is a victim of overly-optimistic expectations. Expecting a team that's 95% juniors and sophomores to come out of the gate and be a top 10 AA squad just isn't realistic. Other than the Cloquet game, is there a game GR has lost that they "should" have won? Warroad perhaps, but Duluth Marshall is an excellent team.

If GR can build some confidence and momentum over the easier part of their schedule, then they can create the chemistry they will need to be a serious contender to go to state.

They may have some more room to grow than East and ER but not that much. ER playing several sophomores in large roles at both defense, forward and at times in goal. Jax Murray leads all sophs in scoring in AA. East appears to be also playing some youngsters. Coach em up...

All of what you said is true but looking at them (ER and Duluth East) I think that they are pretty much up to speed now and may not get much better. OTOH, I think that Grand Rapids has a lot of growth potential left in them. Their front lines dropped off and are being shuffled, their D is shaky and a definite work in progress and their goaltending show streaks of brilliance followed by some less than brilliant work - hard to say with 3 goalies splitting time. If their coaching staff can pull these kids together and can get them up to a level of polish and skill that even approximates what they can do on paper they have a shot at 7AA. I am not so sure that I would want to meet up with them in state after that."

karl(east) wrote:After a week without many games, we have a ton this week, as most teams have themselves a holiday tournament plus another game on the weekend. Your rankings, including holiday tourney and section previews:

1. Lakeville North (8-0)
-The Panthers are still #1 and looking the part after a win over Hill-Murray. Their three games in St. Louis Park, while not as difficult as a Schwan Cup slate, all pose different challenges: Moorhead is tight in back, and Benilde can score and could be troublesome if they ever figure things out, and Wayzata is the last real top-5 caliber team left on the Panthers’ schedule. If they get through this unscathed, we can start talking about this group doing something really special.
This week: St. Louis Park Tournament—Mon vs. #13 Moorhead, Tues vs. Benilde-St. Margaret’s Wed vs. #5 Wayzata; Sat at Eagan

2. Edina (9-1-1)
-Did usual Edina things by taking care of Burnsville. The Hornets won the Schwan Cup last year, and their odds look pretty good this season, too. White Bear is also on tap this coming week.
This week: Schwan Cup Gold Mon-Wed; Fri at #11 White Bear Lake

3. St. Thomas Academy (7-0)
-The Cadets strengthened their top-5 credentials with a narrow win over Wayzata. They have a fairly easy first-round draw in the Schwan Cup in Duluth East, setting up a potential thriller of a semifinal against Edina.
This week: Schwan Cup Gold Mon-Wed

4. Hill-Murray (6-2)
-Not much shame in the Pioneers’ one-goal loss to North, and Eden Prairie’s loss nudges them up a bit. They play that Eden Prairie team in the opening round of the Schwan Cup; a win would solidify this somewhat sketchy ranking, and they’ll be favored in the second-round game no matter who they play.
This week: Schwan Cup Gold Mon-Wed

5. Wayzata (6-2-2)
-Lost a close fight with St. Thomas, which is enough to keep them where they are at the moment. They haven’t been the most convincing team of late, but they did enough early on, and the teams behind them are undergoing enough turmoil that there’s no reason to move them down yet. Their sojourn in St. Louis Park will include a section game, another top-15 opponent, and a date with #1.
This week: St. Louis Park Tournament—Mon vs. #15 Holy Family, Tues vs. #13 Moorhead, Wed vs. #1 Lakeville North

6. Eden Prairie (7-3)
-Last week’s enthusiasm about the Eagles takes a hit, as they coughed up eight goals against Blaine. Still, their overall resume remains better than the teams behind them. Their debut in the Schwan Cup will certainly tell us if that was a blip on the radar or something deeper.
This week: Schwan Cup Gold Mon-Wed

7. Elk River (9-3)
-Give the Elks credit; they sure are consistent, as they pulled out yet another high-scoring win. They aren’t in the holiday tournament, but they do play two of the better teams in the NWSC this week.
This week: Tues vs. #10 Maple Grove, Sat at Centennial

8. Prior Lake (6-1-1)
-It all looks good for now, but we’re still waiting to give the Lakers some more serious tests. That will happen this week with three decent—though zero top ten—opponents in St. Louis Park, and Farmington should test them as well.
This week: St Louis Park Tournament—Mon vs. Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Tues vs. #15 Holy Family, Wed vs. #13 Moorhead; Sat vs. Farmington

9. Blaine (6-4)
-The Bengals continue to confuse after an emphatic blowout over Eden Prairie. They may be spotty, but they’re certainly very dangerous, so we’ll toss them into the top ten and see if it sticks. They don’t have a holiday tournament, but they do face one of Class A’s finest on the road on Friday.
This week: Fri at East Grand Forks

10. Maple Grove (4-5)
-The Crimson were among the idle last week, and don’t have a tournament. Instead, they plug along with their Northwest Suburban schedule, with a chance to atone for a disaster the first time around against Elk River. We should quickly learn how real their apparent improvement is.
This week: Tues at #7 Elk River, Sat vs. Champlin Park

11. White Bear Lake (9-1)
-So, which one is the real White Bear: the team that blows out Centennial, or the one that lays an egg against East Ridge? Reality should be somewhere in between, and the game with the Raptors was a pretty obvious trap game, but it’s hard to say we know this team any better after this week. The Edina game this coming week should tell us a bit more.
This week: Sat vs. #2 Edina

12. Bemidji (8-1-1)
-It was tight, but the Lumberjacks continued to stake their claim over 8AA with a win over Roseau. They’re off to Duluth this week for a tournament that they should be able to win.
This week: Duluth Heritage Classic Mon-Wed; Sat at Sartell

13. Moorhead (5-2-2)
-Attrition helps the Spuds up a couple of spots during a week of rest. They probably have the toughest draw of anyone in St. Louis Park, with three top-ten teams.
This week: St. Louis Park Tournament—Mon vs. #1 Lakeville North, Tues vs. #5 Wayzata, Wed vs. #8 Prior Lake; Sat vs. Bloomington Jefferson

14. Burnsville (3-5-1)
-Not a pretty record, but none of the losses were terrible, and they have tied Wayzata and beaten Benilde. In this complicated part of the rankings, that’s enough to stay in the top 15. The Schwan Cup could lead to more of the same, though they do have a forgiving first round draw in Eastview.
This week: Schwan Cup Gold Mon-Wed; Sat vs. Rosemount

15. Holy Family (5-3-2)
-Idle this past week. The Fire now play three tough ones in a row, including two 6AA opponents, one of whom they already tied. This week could make or break their seeding.
This week: St. Louis Park Tournament—Mon vs. #5 Wayzata, Tues vs. #8 Prior Lake, Wed vs. Benilde-St. Margaret’s

The Next Ten

Benilde-St. Margaret’s (3-4-2)
-Continued blah results for the Red Knights, who are winless in their last four after a narrow loss to Duluth Marshall. The schedule’s been one of the toughest, but they just aren’t getting it done. Things don’t get any easier this week, with Prior Lake, a Holy Family rematch, and Lakeville North.

Minnetonka (5-4)
-It took overtime, but the Skippers beat Jefferson on Tuesday. They drew the short straw and have Edina to lead off the Schwan Cup.
This week: Schwan Cup Gold

Hopkins (8-1)
-Why not? They haven’t played any mentioned teams yet, but they do have a quality win over Hermantown, and a goalie who could steal them a few more before the season is out. They’re the favorite in the Schwan Cup Bronze, and also host Duluth East and Grand Rapids later in the week, which will either be their coming out party or a reality check.

Centennial (4-4)
-Lost ugly to White Bear, and continue to struggle to put together complete games. I think they’re a slight step behind the top two in 5AA, but their losses are all to higher-ranked competition, and we don’t really know just how good White Bear is yet. They stay in the top 20 for now, and will battle Elk River after the Schwan Cup Silver this week.

Duluth East (4-2-1)
-Did not play this past week. They’ve done pretty well in recent Schwan Cups, so we’ll see if that sparks the Hounds. They also have a potentially tough one against Hopkins later in the week.

Lakeville South (2-3-1)
-Still waiting to learn a little more about this group, as they’ve only played six games. The Schwan Cup Silver should help some.

Farmington (7-3)
-Restored some order by roughing up Owatonna. They should steamroll through a two-game tournament hosted by Simley this week, but follow that with a more serious challenge against Prior Lake.

Grand Rapids (4-7)
-That’s seven losses in a row for the Thunderhawks, and the most recent one, to a middling Cloquet team, is definitely the greatest cause for concern. Their sole quality win is against a Bemidji team that hasn’t played anyone outside of the north. They’re young and there’s still some potential, but this is not a great team. They have an absurd 5-game week ahead of them, though they should get back in the win column; Mahtomedi and Hopkins should test them, and the Andover game has seeding implications.

Andover (3-4-1)
-Also idle this past week. The Grand Rapids game will be key in 7AA, and Anoka is no pushover, either.

Eastview (4-3)
-Will have an adventure ahead of them in the Schwan Cup Gold, but they go in with nothing to lose, and could boost their stock with just about any quality result.

Comments on the Holiday Tournaments involving mentioned teams:

Schwan Cup Gold
-Loaded at the top as usual this season, and should deliver some great match-ups, with the EP-Hill first-rounder and a likely St. Thomas-Edina semifinal being the headliners. Burnsville-Eastview means a weaker team will make the final four; as usual, overall results across three games are more important than actual place finish. We’ll see if Duluth East can show up and do anything.

St. Louis Park Tournament
-With just six teams, this one is unlikely to produce an actual “champion,” and schedules come down to the luck of the draw. Still, with all participants in the top 20, it’ll be a fun three days of hockey, and several games have 6AA implications. Can anyone derail North?

Schwan Cup Silver
-Lakeville South, Centennial, and Breck lead the way here, with Stillwater also somewhere in the picture. Those four all avoid each other in the first round, setting up a potentially good an instructive final two days of the tournament.

Duluth Heritage Classic
-Bemidji should be the clear favorite here, with host Denfeld being the most serious possible competition. St. Paul Academy could also be a factor.

Schwan Cup Bronze
-Hopkins has the edge here via rankings, though Anoka and St. Michael-Albertville will also be looking to distinguish themselves, and the field is decently deep.

Perpich North-South Challenge
-The Rapids-Mahtomedi game is probably the only one with ranking relevance here, though it’ll be interesting to see whether the north can pull this one out.

And now, sections:

1AA
1 Lakeville North
21 Lakeville South
22 Farmington
-North is the obvious favorite, but South’s win over Farmington was a mild surprise that should give them the early edge for the 2-seed, and we need a few more tests to learn just how good South and Farmington are. There will be a second round between the top three; there hasn’t been much noise beyond them.

2AA
2 Edina
8 Prior Lake
14 Burnsville
-No surprise at the top, but Prior Lake’s win over Burnsville has them in the driver’s seat for #2. The question for the Lakers then becomes one of whether they’re capable of giving Edina any sort of fight. No one else is really threatening for a spot in the rankings.

3AA
3 St. Thomas Academy
Cretin-Derham Hall
25 Eastview
-This section is perhaps even more lopsided than 1AA at the moment, with St. Thomas running away with things. Cretin beat Eastview narrowly to get the inside edge for the 2-seed, and those two have shown the most of anyone in the chase pack, but to this point, that’s not much to threaten St. Thomas—assuming St. Thomas is as good as we think they are.

4AA
4 Hill-Murray
6 White Bear Lake
Stillwater
-Suddenly, we may have a race here. Two questions loom: how real is White Bear’s run against a weak schedule, and can Stillwater’s kids grow up enough to close the very real gap between the Ponies and the top two? Roseville has also proven itself relevant with a win over Stillwater.

5AA
10 Maple Grove
9 Blaine
19 Centennial
Anoka
-This section may not have an elite team, but it does look like plenty of fun, with three pretty even teams battling it out for the crown. Maple Grove, with wins over the other two, has the early edge for the top seed. Anoka, with a win over Blaine, is the other likely top-4 team; we’ll see if they can do any more than that one win. Blaine has the most front-end talent, but can they figure out how to string together three playoff wins? They haven’t the past couple years.

6AA
5 Wayzata
6 Eden Prairie
15 Holy Family
16 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
17 Minnetonka
18 Hopkins
-Wayzata is the #1 here by virtue of their record, but it’s worth noting that they have yet to play another 6AA team. They’ve got Holy Family twice in the next two weeks, which will help some, because it is a total mess beyond them. Eden Prairie has looked next-best on the whole, but has also shown some vulnerability, and lost to Benilde. Benilde, Holy Family, Minnetonka, and perhaps Hopkins all look to be in on the fun, and having them all in a row there shows that it’s too early to commit to any real order there. Holy Family plays Benilde for a second time this week; after that, it will come down to Lake Conference play and a couple of late games between Benilde and the top two.

7AA
7 Elk River
20 Duluth East
23 Grand Rapids
24 Andover
-As a whole, I’m pretty skeptical of this section at the moment. Elk River is #1, but they had some issues with Eden Prairie and Edina, barely beat limping Rapids, and just aren’t good defensively. Duluth East is not off to a great start, but at least has a defensive system; they remain a relative unknown. Andover and St. Michael-Albertville are in decent position for top-5 seeds, with Cloquet possibly leaping into the mix if they can follow up that win over Rapids with some strong results. Andover has the early edge out of that group off common results with East, but none have really done enough to convince they deserve high seeds. Rapids and East play in two weeks, and Rapids also has Andover this week.

8AA
12 Bemidji
13 Moorhead
Roseau
-Bemidji has beaten its leading two competitors here and has the early lead for the top seed. The Jacks play zero games against Twin Cities powers, so even if they do continue to dominate the northwest, a State seed may be a long shot. That said, they will have at least some case, as unseeded 8AA teams have represented well in St. Paul recently. The games with Moorhead and Roseau have been close, though, and at least one of them will have something to say about how this all turns out.