AA Rankings for 2/8/15
Posted: Sun Feb 08, 2015 9:57 am
We’re down to the last week of the regular season, and while the top couple teams remain easy enough, nothing is certain below. This week’s rankings include my stab at seeding the top four in every section.
1. Lakeville North (23-0)
-The Panthers got a mild test out of Eagan and a fairly comfortable win over Prior Lake, and have now gone the deeper into the season without a loss than any team since 2007 Roseau. Their final week is not especially challenging, and they should be able to wrap up the fourth big school undefeated regular season of the two-class era with a win in Shakopee. After that, the stakes only get higher.
This week: Thurs vs. Eastview, Sat at Shakopee
2. Edina (20-1-2)
-The Hornets’ 8-0 shellacking of Wayzata has to scare the rest of the state, as the gap between the top two and the field only grows. I can’t ever recall the state being this lopsided at the top. They close things out with home games against Minnetonka and Eden Prairie, two more good teams they have nonetheless steamrolled recently.
This week: Thurs vs. #12 Minnetonka, Sat vs. #5 Eden Prairie
3. St. Thomas Academy (19-3)
-Took a tumble against Mahtomedi, but that isn’t a terrible result given the Zephyrs’ recent surge, and a revenge win over Hill keeps the Cadets at #3. They have a busy final week, with two potentially interesting games against Breck and Holy Family.
This week: Wed vs. Breck, Thurs at Hastings, Sat at #10 Holy Family
4. Hill-Murray (16-7)
-Lost a tight one to St. Thomas, which isn’t going to cost them in the rankings, given the turmoil below. They haven’t been at the steady level of the three above them, but they have been reasonably consistent, and held their own in three of their four games against the top three. This year, that’s enough. They close out against a potentially dangerous Moorhead team.
This week: Thurs vs. Tartan, Sat vs. Moorhead
5. Eden Prairie (15-8)
-The Eagles are on fire right now after convincing wins over Benilde and Minnetonka, and have jumped to the front of the 6AA roulette wheel. They’ve won five of their last six, but the ultimate test will be to see if they can improve on that one loss, an ugly one against Edina. First up, though, they have Hopkins, and a win could well land them one of those precious top two 6AA seeds.
This week: Thurs vs. Hopkins, Sat at #2 Edina
6. Elk River (19-4-1)
-The Elks are steamrolling their way through the underbelly of the Northwest Suburban. Assuming it will be more of the same in their finale, they’ll lock up their first 20-win season since 2003.
This week: Thurs vs. Armstrong/Cooper
7. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (13-8-2)
-The Red Knights were humbled by Eden Prairie on Tuesday, making for two straight lopsided losses to top ten teams. That’s cause for a red flag as they head down the stretch, but on the whole, they’re doing enough to stay relevant. Their game with Wayzata Tuesday is huge for 6AA seeding purposes, and could make a very big difference in the end result.
This week: Tues vs. #14 Wayzata, Sat at St. Louis Park
8. Blaine (17-5-1)
-The Bengals’ powerful offense got them past Duluth East, and they certainly have the firepower and forward depth to score with the best of them. Problem is, nearly all of their games against good teams have had 9 goals or more, and that is not a sustainable pace for a serious contender. If they don’t lock down some, I’d expect them to miss out on a trip to the X yet again.
This week: Mon at Armstrong/Cooper, Fri vs. Spring Lake Park
9. White Bear Lake (18-5)
-The Bears had two solid wins and one ugly one this past week, putting them in position to lock up a Suburban East title this week. It may come down to the season finale against Cretin, the #2 team who handed them one of their two conference losses. A win in that one would provide some good momentum heading into the playoffs.
This week: Tues vs. Woodbury, Thurs at Cretin-Derham Hall
10. Holy Family (15-6-2)
-Got by Hopkins in an important game for their 6AA standing, and got another decent win against Duluth Marshall, too. Their winning streak is now at nine, and they are sliding up the rankings as other teams drop. After a couple of lighter weeks, they get one last big-time playoff tune-up when they host St. Thomas Academy to close out their first 25.
This week: Tues at Hutchinson, Sat vs. #3 St. Thomas Academy
11. Bemidji (18-3-2)
-A tie with Warroad isn’t ideal as the Lumberjacks head down the stretch, but they had a heavy shot advantage and the Warriors have been playing pretty well lately, so it’s no reason to sound any alarm bells at this point. They’ll set their sights on a 20-win season this week, and the season finale could be a good one.
This week: Tues vs. Brainerd, Fri vs. Thief River Falls
12. Minnetonka (12-10-1)
-This is where things start to get really complicated. The Skippers lost to streaking Eden Prairie, but a big win over Wayzata salvages their chances at a higher seed in 6AA and sets them up for a tough final week.
This week: Thurs at #2 Edina, Sat at Duluth East
13. Prior Lake (14-8-1)
-Took a hit in a second loss to Farmington this past week, but they’ve done enough overall to stay ahead of that next tier of South Suburban teams. Their effort against Lakeville North wasn’t bad, either. They close out with two of the weaker SSC squads, though Rosemount did beat them in mid-January.
This week: Thurs at Apple Valley, Sat vs. Rosemount
14. Wayzata (11-12-2)
-The Trojans are now in a total freefall, having lost nine of their last twelve, with the margins only growing larger. They’ve probably blown their chance at a top-2 seed in the section, though a win over Benilde this week would certainly restore some order. If they can’t beat Hopkins, they’ll probably find themselves on the road for the first round.
This week: Tues at #7 Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Sat at Hopkins
15. Grand Rapids (12-10-2)
-The Thunderhawks thumped International Falls in their penultimate game. This week’s contest against Duluth Denfeld could be interesting, depending on which team shows up.
This week: Tues vs. Duluth Denfeld
The Next Ten
Moorhead (14-7-2)
-The Spuds made some noise this past week with a win over East Grand Forks, suggesting they won’t go quietly in 8AA. The Thief River win was a little tight, but they are closing the gap on Bemidji some here. Their finale against Hill gives them a chance to make up more ground.
Lakeville South (14-7-1)
-A big win over Jefferson highlighted South’s week, and has them in line for a strong finish. Their last week gives them a few more good challenges, with home games against Duluth East and Burnsville.
Burnsville (12-10-1)
-A couple of shutouts have the Blaze looking a bit better than in previous weeks, but it’s not enough to crack the top 15 again. Two games against the teams immediately above and below them will give us an idea of their direction heading into the playoffs.
Farmington (16-7)
-A big week has the Tigers going back in the right direction with wins over Eastview and Prior Lake. The finale against Burnsville gives them a chance to put one last exclamation point on the strongest regular season in school history.
Cretin-Derham Hall (14-5-4)
-Plowed past a pair of SEC opponents to set up a big one with White Bear this week. They also have a potentially interesting one against Bloomington Jefferson on the docket.
Anoka (14-7-2)
-The wins over Coon Rapids and Spring Lake Park won’t get them any style points, but wins are wins, and the Tornadoes have been pretty good more often than not of late. Totino-Grace and Osseo wrap up their regular season.
Centennial (14-9)
-Like most of the NWSC contenders, the Cougars are marching along through the soft part of their schedule, and should keep that up against Spring Lake Park and Totino-Grace this week.
Hopkins (12-10-1)
-Dropped a couple of games this past week, but a narrow loss to Holy Family is a decent sign heading into the playoffs, and everyone gets killed by Edina these days. They’ve got two more 6AA and Lake Conference wars left, both of which could prove interesting; they took Eden Prairie to overtime in the first meeting, and with Wayzata’s tailspin, the Royals should have a shot in that one, too.
Duluth East (10-10-3)
-Gave Blaine a pretty even game in an overtime loss, but also failed to put away Cloquet, keeping them hovering along this bubble here. The flashes in potential are getting more pronounced. A win in either of their games this week, against Lakeville South and Minnetonka, would be their strongest one of the year.
Eastview (11-11-1)
-The Lightning lost to Farmington and couldn’t finish off Shakopee, driving them from the top 20. They get one of the last cracks at Lakeville North this week, but should be able to pull out a winning season in their finale against Apple Valley.
Here are my seeding projections for the top four of every section, plus extras in the particularly deep ones:
1AA
1 Lakeville North
17 Lakeville South
19 Farmington
Rochester Mayo
-South’s second win over Farmington keeps the city of Lakeville in the top two spots, with the Tigers safe as the 3-seed. Rochester Mayo is currently in position for the 4-seed, but could potentially lose it to Century if they drop their game on the season’s final day. Either way, those two will play for the right to be North’s cannon fodder in a semifinal.
2AA
2 Edina
13 Prior Lake
18 Burnsville
Bloomington Jefferson
-Prior Lake’s second win over Burnsville makes this one pretty clear, too. Bloomington Jefferson is the 4-seed, and should have a date with old nemesis Holy Angels in their quarterfinal game.
3AA
3 St. Thomas Academy
20 Cretin-Derham Hall
25 Eastview
Rosemount
-Another section with a pretty obvious ordering of the top three, and a good semifinal matchup to decide who has an outside shot at an upset in the final. This section is tight in the 4-9 range. If Rosemount can beat Eagan this week, the 4-seed should be theirs; if they lose, it gets complicated, with East Ridge maybe having the best case. Eagan would then have beaten both of those other 4-seed contenders, though they probably don’t have the overall record necessary to climb into that conversation.
4AA
4 Hill-Murray
9 White Bear Lake
Stillwater
Roseville
-This section has taken shape pretty cleanly as well, with Hill beating White Bear and the Bears beating Stillwater for a second time. The top two are obvious, but the Ponies look capable of crashing the party again, while Roseville is a clear choice for the 4-seed.
5AA
8 Blaine
22 Centennial
21 Anoka
Maple Grove
-Blaine has the best record in the section here, leaving the question of whether Anoka’s 1-0-1 record against Blaine is enough to overcome their two losses to Centennial and earn the 2-seed. Anoka’s downfall may be that loss to Rogers, so I’d probably give #2 to Centennial, but either way, these two are on a collision course to meet again in the semis. Assuming Maple Grove can beat Osseo this week, they’ll be #4; they have beaten Blaine and given them a good game in a loss, so nothing is assured beyond the first round here.
6AA
5 Eden Prairie
7 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
10 Holy Family
14 Wayzata
12 Minnetonka
23 Hopkins
-After a bunch of straightforward sections, we come to this mess. Starting from the back, I don’t think Minnetonka and Hopkins can do enough to escape the 5- and 6-seeds; their records in the section are just too weak. Tuesday’s Benilde-Wayzata game is huge, and will make the difference between a first-round cakewalk or a war for one of the two; in my mind, a win for the Red Knights gives them #1, while Wayzata would slip to #4 and Holy Family would slide up to #3, while a Trojan win leaves Eden Prairie at #1, puts Wayzata at #2, and Benilde at #3. There’s an argument to give Eden Prairie #1 no matter what, given their hot finish…unless they lose to Hopkins, in which case I give up.
7AA
6 Elk River
15 Grand Rapids
24 Duluth East
St. Michael-Albertville
Cloquet
-The top two spots are set here, and the only debate really remaining is in the 3-5 range. It mostly hinges on Tuesday’s battle between Cloquet and St. Michael-Albertville; a Cloquet win gives them the 4-seed and East the 3, while an STMA win would give the Knights some argument for the 3. They’d likely face an uphill battle in the seeding meeting given the cushy schedule that has given us no sense of their ability to match up with top-flight teams, but it would at least be defensible. I doubt it will matter much in the grand scheme of things, either. While the seeding order may be clearer here, this one is nearly as unpredictable as 6AA, given the ups and downs of so many of the teams.
8AA
11 Bemidji
16 Moorhead
Roseau
Buffalo
-The only question left near the top here is who gets the 3-seed, as Roseau and Buffalo do not play. By virtue of their tougher schedule, I’d tip toward Roseau, but either order is defensible.
As always, I’ll have a complete section preview next week. Playoff insanity is right around the corner.
1. Lakeville North (23-0)
-The Panthers got a mild test out of Eagan and a fairly comfortable win over Prior Lake, and have now gone the deeper into the season without a loss than any team since 2007 Roseau. Their final week is not especially challenging, and they should be able to wrap up the fourth big school undefeated regular season of the two-class era with a win in Shakopee. After that, the stakes only get higher.
This week: Thurs vs. Eastview, Sat at Shakopee
2. Edina (20-1-2)
-The Hornets’ 8-0 shellacking of Wayzata has to scare the rest of the state, as the gap between the top two and the field only grows. I can’t ever recall the state being this lopsided at the top. They close things out with home games against Minnetonka and Eden Prairie, two more good teams they have nonetheless steamrolled recently.
This week: Thurs vs. #12 Minnetonka, Sat vs. #5 Eden Prairie
3. St. Thomas Academy (19-3)
-Took a tumble against Mahtomedi, but that isn’t a terrible result given the Zephyrs’ recent surge, and a revenge win over Hill keeps the Cadets at #3. They have a busy final week, with two potentially interesting games against Breck and Holy Family.
This week: Wed vs. Breck, Thurs at Hastings, Sat at #10 Holy Family
4. Hill-Murray (16-7)
-Lost a tight one to St. Thomas, which isn’t going to cost them in the rankings, given the turmoil below. They haven’t been at the steady level of the three above them, but they have been reasonably consistent, and held their own in three of their four games against the top three. This year, that’s enough. They close out against a potentially dangerous Moorhead team.
This week: Thurs vs. Tartan, Sat vs. Moorhead
5. Eden Prairie (15-8)
-The Eagles are on fire right now after convincing wins over Benilde and Minnetonka, and have jumped to the front of the 6AA roulette wheel. They’ve won five of their last six, but the ultimate test will be to see if they can improve on that one loss, an ugly one against Edina. First up, though, they have Hopkins, and a win could well land them one of those precious top two 6AA seeds.
This week: Thurs vs. Hopkins, Sat at #2 Edina
6. Elk River (19-4-1)
-The Elks are steamrolling their way through the underbelly of the Northwest Suburban. Assuming it will be more of the same in their finale, they’ll lock up their first 20-win season since 2003.
This week: Thurs vs. Armstrong/Cooper
7. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (13-8-2)
-The Red Knights were humbled by Eden Prairie on Tuesday, making for two straight lopsided losses to top ten teams. That’s cause for a red flag as they head down the stretch, but on the whole, they’re doing enough to stay relevant. Their game with Wayzata Tuesday is huge for 6AA seeding purposes, and could make a very big difference in the end result.
This week: Tues vs. #14 Wayzata, Sat at St. Louis Park
8. Blaine (17-5-1)
-The Bengals’ powerful offense got them past Duluth East, and they certainly have the firepower and forward depth to score with the best of them. Problem is, nearly all of their games against good teams have had 9 goals or more, and that is not a sustainable pace for a serious contender. If they don’t lock down some, I’d expect them to miss out on a trip to the X yet again.
This week: Mon at Armstrong/Cooper, Fri vs. Spring Lake Park
9. White Bear Lake (18-5)
-The Bears had two solid wins and one ugly one this past week, putting them in position to lock up a Suburban East title this week. It may come down to the season finale against Cretin, the #2 team who handed them one of their two conference losses. A win in that one would provide some good momentum heading into the playoffs.
This week: Tues vs. Woodbury, Thurs at Cretin-Derham Hall
10. Holy Family (15-6-2)
-Got by Hopkins in an important game for their 6AA standing, and got another decent win against Duluth Marshall, too. Their winning streak is now at nine, and they are sliding up the rankings as other teams drop. After a couple of lighter weeks, they get one last big-time playoff tune-up when they host St. Thomas Academy to close out their first 25.
This week: Tues at Hutchinson, Sat vs. #3 St. Thomas Academy
11. Bemidji (18-3-2)
-A tie with Warroad isn’t ideal as the Lumberjacks head down the stretch, but they had a heavy shot advantage and the Warriors have been playing pretty well lately, so it’s no reason to sound any alarm bells at this point. They’ll set their sights on a 20-win season this week, and the season finale could be a good one.
This week: Tues vs. Brainerd, Fri vs. Thief River Falls
12. Minnetonka (12-10-1)
-This is where things start to get really complicated. The Skippers lost to streaking Eden Prairie, but a big win over Wayzata salvages their chances at a higher seed in 6AA and sets them up for a tough final week.
This week: Thurs at #2 Edina, Sat at Duluth East
13. Prior Lake (14-8-1)
-Took a hit in a second loss to Farmington this past week, but they’ve done enough overall to stay ahead of that next tier of South Suburban teams. Their effort against Lakeville North wasn’t bad, either. They close out with two of the weaker SSC squads, though Rosemount did beat them in mid-January.
This week: Thurs at Apple Valley, Sat vs. Rosemount
14. Wayzata (11-12-2)
-The Trojans are now in a total freefall, having lost nine of their last twelve, with the margins only growing larger. They’ve probably blown their chance at a top-2 seed in the section, though a win over Benilde this week would certainly restore some order. If they can’t beat Hopkins, they’ll probably find themselves on the road for the first round.
This week: Tues at #7 Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Sat at Hopkins
15. Grand Rapids (12-10-2)
-The Thunderhawks thumped International Falls in their penultimate game. This week’s contest against Duluth Denfeld could be interesting, depending on which team shows up.
This week: Tues vs. Duluth Denfeld
The Next Ten
Moorhead (14-7-2)
-The Spuds made some noise this past week with a win over East Grand Forks, suggesting they won’t go quietly in 8AA. The Thief River win was a little tight, but they are closing the gap on Bemidji some here. Their finale against Hill gives them a chance to make up more ground.
Lakeville South (14-7-1)
-A big win over Jefferson highlighted South’s week, and has them in line for a strong finish. Their last week gives them a few more good challenges, with home games against Duluth East and Burnsville.
Burnsville (12-10-1)
-A couple of shutouts have the Blaze looking a bit better than in previous weeks, but it’s not enough to crack the top 15 again. Two games against the teams immediately above and below them will give us an idea of their direction heading into the playoffs.
Farmington (16-7)
-A big week has the Tigers going back in the right direction with wins over Eastview and Prior Lake. The finale against Burnsville gives them a chance to put one last exclamation point on the strongest regular season in school history.
Cretin-Derham Hall (14-5-4)
-Plowed past a pair of SEC opponents to set up a big one with White Bear this week. They also have a potentially interesting one against Bloomington Jefferson on the docket.
Anoka (14-7-2)
-The wins over Coon Rapids and Spring Lake Park won’t get them any style points, but wins are wins, and the Tornadoes have been pretty good more often than not of late. Totino-Grace and Osseo wrap up their regular season.
Centennial (14-9)
-Like most of the NWSC contenders, the Cougars are marching along through the soft part of their schedule, and should keep that up against Spring Lake Park and Totino-Grace this week.
Hopkins (12-10-1)
-Dropped a couple of games this past week, but a narrow loss to Holy Family is a decent sign heading into the playoffs, and everyone gets killed by Edina these days. They’ve got two more 6AA and Lake Conference wars left, both of which could prove interesting; they took Eden Prairie to overtime in the first meeting, and with Wayzata’s tailspin, the Royals should have a shot in that one, too.
Duluth East (10-10-3)
-Gave Blaine a pretty even game in an overtime loss, but also failed to put away Cloquet, keeping them hovering along this bubble here. The flashes in potential are getting more pronounced. A win in either of their games this week, against Lakeville South and Minnetonka, would be their strongest one of the year.
Eastview (11-11-1)
-The Lightning lost to Farmington and couldn’t finish off Shakopee, driving them from the top 20. They get one of the last cracks at Lakeville North this week, but should be able to pull out a winning season in their finale against Apple Valley.
Here are my seeding projections for the top four of every section, plus extras in the particularly deep ones:
1AA
1 Lakeville North
17 Lakeville South
19 Farmington
Rochester Mayo
-South’s second win over Farmington keeps the city of Lakeville in the top two spots, with the Tigers safe as the 3-seed. Rochester Mayo is currently in position for the 4-seed, but could potentially lose it to Century if they drop their game on the season’s final day. Either way, those two will play for the right to be North’s cannon fodder in a semifinal.
2AA
2 Edina
13 Prior Lake
18 Burnsville
Bloomington Jefferson
-Prior Lake’s second win over Burnsville makes this one pretty clear, too. Bloomington Jefferson is the 4-seed, and should have a date with old nemesis Holy Angels in their quarterfinal game.
3AA
3 St. Thomas Academy
20 Cretin-Derham Hall
25 Eastview
Rosemount
-Another section with a pretty obvious ordering of the top three, and a good semifinal matchup to decide who has an outside shot at an upset in the final. This section is tight in the 4-9 range. If Rosemount can beat Eagan this week, the 4-seed should be theirs; if they lose, it gets complicated, with East Ridge maybe having the best case. Eagan would then have beaten both of those other 4-seed contenders, though they probably don’t have the overall record necessary to climb into that conversation.
4AA
4 Hill-Murray
9 White Bear Lake
Stillwater
Roseville
-This section has taken shape pretty cleanly as well, with Hill beating White Bear and the Bears beating Stillwater for a second time. The top two are obvious, but the Ponies look capable of crashing the party again, while Roseville is a clear choice for the 4-seed.
5AA
8 Blaine
22 Centennial
21 Anoka
Maple Grove
-Blaine has the best record in the section here, leaving the question of whether Anoka’s 1-0-1 record against Blaine is enough to overcome their two losses to Centennial and earn the 2-seed. Anoka’s downfall may be that loss to Rogers, so I’d probably give #2 to Centennial, but either way, these two are on a collision course to meet again in the semis. Assuming Maple Grove can beat Osseo this week, they’ll be #4; they have beaten Blaine and given them a good game in a loss, so nothing is assured beyond the first round here.
6AA
5 Eden Prairie
7 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
10 Holy Family
14 Wayzata
12 Minnetonka
23 Hopkins
-After a bunch of straightforward sections, we come to this mess. Starting from the back, I don’t think Minnetonka and Hopkins can do enough to escape the 5- and 6-seeds; their records in the section are just too weak. Tuesday’s Benilde-Wayzata game is huge, and will make the difference between a first-round cakewalk or a war for one of the two; in my mind, a win for the Red Knights gives them #1, while Wayzata would slip to #4 and Holy Family would slide up to #3, while a Trojan win leaves Eden Prairie at #1, puts Wayzata at #2, and Benilde at #3. There’s an argument to give Eden Prairie #1 no matter what, given their hot finish…unless they lose to Hopkins, in which case I give up.
7AA
6 Elk River
15 Grand Rapids
24 Duluth East
St. Michael-Albertville
Cloquet
-The top two spots are set here, and the only debate really remaining is in the 3-5 range. It mostly hinges on Tuesday’s battle between Cloquet and St. Michael-Albertville; a Cloquet win gives them the 4-seed and East the 3, while an STMA win would give the Knights some argument for the 3. They’d likely face an uphill battle in the seeding meeting given the cushy schedule that has given us no sense of their ability to match up with top-flight teams, but it would at least be defensible. I doubt it will matter much in the grand scheme of things, either. While the seeding order may be clearer here, this one is nearly as unpredictable as 6AA, given the ups and downs of so many of the teams.
8AA
11 Bemidji
16 Moorhead
Roseau
Buffalo
-The only question left near the top here is who gets the 3-seed, as Roseau and Buffalo do not play. By virtue of their tougher schedule, I’d tip toward Roseau, but either order is defensible.
As always, I’ll have a complete section preview next week. Playoff insanity is right around the corner.
I had all 8 Tourney teams in the top 11 that season, which I remember noticing as being very rare. There's almost always a team in the 15-25 range that either upsets its way in or just gets there because a section is pretty weak.