AA Rankings for 2/19/17 and Section Preview
Posted: Sun Feb 19, 2017 5:25 pm
Thanks for your patience today amid waiting for seeds, podcasting, and travel. As usual, I go with a different format this week, first giving the top 25, and then laying out each section below.
1. Eden Prairie (19-4-2)
2. Edina (18-6-1)
3. Elk River (21-4)
4. Stillwater (22-3)
5. Holy Family (20-4-1)
6. St. Thomas Academy (20-4-1)
7. Centennial (20-4-1)
8. Lakeville North (18-5-2)
9. Maple Grove (19-6)
10. Moorhead (19-3-3)
11. Hill-Murray (16-5-4)
12. Minnetonka (14-11)
13. White Bear Lake (14-7-4)
14. Duluth East (16-8-1)
15. Prior Lake (16-9)
16. Bemidji (14-10-1)
17. Grand Rapids (17-7-1)
18. Lakeville South (15-9-1)
19. Burnsville (16-8-1)
20. St. Michael-Albertville (19-4-2)
21. Wayzata (7-17-1)
22. Cloquet (15-8-2)
23. Cretin-Derham Hall (18-7)
24. Blaine (13-11-1)
25. Roseau (16-9)
1AA
QF 2/23 High Seed Home
SF 2/25 Rochester Rec Center
F 2/ Rochester Rec Center
1. Lakeville North (18-5-1, #8)
-Had some trouble with Eagan and lost the finale to Prior Lake, so the Panthers aren’t exactly flying high as they head into sections. They will, however, have two warm-up games before they get to the one that matters, and handed South well in their recent meeting. With Stillwater’s strong week, though, the Panthers may now be the odd team out for a seed if the top seeds all advance to State, depending on how much weight their wins over Stillwater and St. Thomas get. This team has nice balance, but has had a tendency to wobble some.
2. Lakeville South (15-9-1, #18)
-The Cougars had an up-and-down close to their season, with a solid win over Duluth East that showed their smothering defense and a loss to Rosemount. Farmington did give them a one-goal game in their second meeting, so a semifinal upset isn’t out of the question. While they lost to North by four in the more recent meeting, I’d expect a closer final; they were missing Josh Ess in that one, and their defense and edge in goal should give them a fighting chance. They just need to find a way to score.
3. Farmington
4. Rochester Century
5. Owatonna
6. Rochester John Marshall
7. Rochester Mayo
8. Dodge County
2AA
QF 2/23 High Seed Home
SF 2/25 BIG/Braemar
F 3/1 Mariucci
1. Eden Prairie (19-4-2, #1)
-A 7-1 shellacking of Minnetonka on the final day of the regular season sets the standard: the Eagles are the team to beat this season. Unlike last season, when things were awfully Mittelstadt-centric, this group seems cohesive and can roll three lines, even as Casey does his thing. If they face Holy Family in the final, though, it could be one of their most serious tests on their way to a title.
2. Holy Family (20-4-1, #5)
-Dropped to Stillwater to end their regular season, a game that again showed their one consistent shortcoming: they control games, but can’t quite finish. Still, a strong, deep defense and great goaltending make them a threat on a statewide stage, and they can skate with anyone, including Eden Prairie. First, they’ll have to beat Minnetonka again to make their first ever section final.
3. Minnetonka (14-11, #12)
-The Skippers didn’t show much in their last meeting with Eden Prairie; it’s hard to shake the sense that they’re still a year away, and not quite in the same league as the Eagles and Fire this season. That said, they gave Holy Family a one-goal game a couple of weeks ago, and have the young sniper talent to pull a semifinal upset.
4. Prior Lake (16-9, #15)
-The Lakers have been playing well down the stretch, and finished off Lakeville North to claim the South Suburban crown. Anywhere else I’d call them a very dangerous semifinal opponent, but Eden Prairie will be a major test.
5. Chaska
6. Chanhassen
7. Shakopee
3AA
1st Round 2/21 High Seed Home
QF 2/23 High Seed Home
2/25 SF Veterans Memorial Arena
3/2 F Ridder Arena
1. St. Thomas Academy (20-4-1, #6)
-The Cadets are on a roll heading into sections, with nine straight wins, and are likely in position to grab a seed if they make State, though there is at least some chance that early loss to Lakeville North could cost them one. 3AA is theirs to lose, though we said that last year. Can they end their AA struggles and prove resilient in a high-pressure situation?
2. Burnsville (16-8-1, #19)
-The Blaze faded some after a January run, but they did pull this off last season, they play smart team defense, and they have one of the state’s most productive players in Roman Ahcan. It’s not crazy to imagine them doing it again, though they’ll need to get past the likes of Eastview first.
3. Eastview
-Decent upset odds here, though they have to get past Jefferson in the quarterfinals.
4. Eagan
5. Rosemount
6. Bloomington Jefferson
7. Park (Cottage Grove)
8. Apple Valley
9. East Ridge
10. Hastings
4AA
QF 2/25 Aldrich
SF 2/8 and 3/1 Aldrich
F 3/3 Aldrich
1. Stillwater (22-3, #4)
-The Ponies probably had the most important final week of anyone out there and they delivered, as they finally solved White Bear Lake in the third period and used a similar late push to knock off Holy Family. They’re not quite as flashy as some of the other top five teams, but the work ethic and experience are there to go all the way, and they’re back in position for a seed at State now. They will have to get past a tough, defensive-minded rival to escape 4AA, though.
2. Hill-Murray (16-5-4, #11)
-Fell in overtime to Moorhead, which confirms their standing toward the upper end of the teams ranked in the double digits. Despite lacking characteristic Hill top-end talent, they have their usual disciplined style and one of the state’s finest goalies in Jake Begley. (In fact, one could argue 4AA has the best three senior goalies in the state.) All signs are that we’re headed toward a great semifinal meeting between two serious rivals that also have very similar teams this season.
3. White Bear Lake (14-7-4, #13)
-Gave Stillwater some fits for a while before the Ponies’ pressure finally did them in. Like Hill, they’re not deep up front, but they’ve got a little bit of firepower, a tough defense, and a rock in goal. They’re certainly capable of pulling this off.
4. Mounds View
5. Woodbury
6. Tartan
7. Roseville
8. North St. Paul
9. Irondale
5AA
2/23 QF Coon Rapids/Champlin
2/25 Champlin
3/2 Aldrich
1. Centennial (20-4-1, #7)
-The Cougars are finishing rather quietly; their only tougher game in the past three weeks was a tie against White Bear Lake. This isn’t a flashy group, but they’re tough, and they’ve got a reasonably deep offense, and while this section still may be on the outside looking in for a seed, they probably won’t go quietly.
2. Maple Grove (19-6, #9)
-The Crimson gave Elk River a one-goal game on their way to a loss on Tuesday, and while that doesn’t change their ranking, it does show that they’re right there with the top teams in the state. They struggled in their second meeting with Centennial, losing 5-0, but they did win the December meeting, and I’d expect a closer game in the final as long as they can get by Blaine. With some quality snipers and strong goaltending, it’s not hard to see them pulling this one out.
3. Blaine (13-11-1, #24)
-The Bengals dropped one to Champlin Park and are certainly a step behind the top two in 5AA, but they did beat Maple Grove once this season, and with some quality young talent, it’s not crazy to imagine them doing it again. It’s certainly a chance to atone for last season, when they were the senior-heavy favorite and fell at the hands of an upstart.
4. Champlin Park
5. Anoka
6. Coon Rapids
7. Spring Lake Park
8. Osseo
6AA
QF 2/23 High Seed Home
SF 2/25 Braemar/BIG
F 3/1 Mariucci
1. Edina (18-6-1, #2)
-A 1-0 win over Wayzata on the season’s final day is awfully close for comfort. That said, this group has the talent to win it all, and with the schedule they’ve played, they’ll deserve the 2-seed if they make it through to State. Their only risk is probably getting caught in a low-scoring, tight game with a Wayzata team that knows how to get it done.
2. Cretin-Derham Hall (18-7, #23)
-This team hasn’t done much against ranked opposition, but they’ve got a couple of good young talents and a competitive game with Wayzata under their belts, so a second straight section final is within the reach if their young guns score enough.
3. Wayzata (7-17-1, #21)
-Could a 10-win team make the Tourney? It’s certainly not impossible, as they’ve given Edina two pretty tight games. They have the defensive style to do it, but they also have to avoid doing stupid things in the first two rounds; Cretin is certainly a threat to knock them off.
4. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (8-16-1)
-Finished with a run of wins against middling competition; I’m not sure they have the horses to give Edina a run this season, but stranger things have happened.
5. St. Louis Park
6. Armstrong/Cooper
7. Holy Angels
8. Hopkins
7AA
1st Round 2/18 (Forest Lake def. Cambridge 10-1)
QF 2/21 High Seed Home
SF 2/25 Amsoil
F 3/2 Amsoil
1. Elk River (21-4, #3)
-Picked off Maple Grove to round out an excellent regular season, and with their two chief rivals for the 7AA crown going backwards, they’re sitting as far clear of the field as they ever had heading into the playoffs. Their depth, balance, and discipline are all hallmarks of a team primed for a deep run. , and Grand Rapids’ drop to the 4-seed negated
2. Duluth East (16-8-1, #14)
-The Hounds fell flat toward the end, with a listless loss to Lakeville South rounding out their regular season. They should sail in the first round, though, and are potential beneficiaries of Grand Rapids sinking to #4, though Cloquet (and Marshall) are big enough rivals that it’s not crazy to imagine something happening in the semifinals. They’re pretty good across the board, but can they find the greatness necessary to make a playoff run?
3. Cloquet (15-8-2, #22)
-The Lumberjacks made a statement with a strong win over Grand Rapids, and now find themselves with a 3-seed. Their two wins over Marshall were fairly close, so that one isn’t a foregone conclusion, and while East has handled them twice, they’ll have a shot if they can apply as much pressure as they did against Rapids.
4. Grand Rapids (17-7-1, #17)
-A bad late-season run culminated in an ugly loss to Cloquet, and it cost the Thunderhawks a 3-seed. The talent is obvious, but so are the flaws, and a strong forecheck can give them fits. Perhaps no team is a bigger wild card heading into sections.
5. Andover
-Tied Grand Rapids during the regular season, for whatever it’s worth, and now get a crack at the reeling Thunderhawks at IRA in the first round.
6. Duluth Marshall
7. St. Francis
8. Forest Lake
9. Cambridge (eliminated)
8AA
QF 2/21 High Seed Home
SF 2/25 High Seed Home
F 3/1 TRF/SCSU/Bemidji
1. Moorhead (19-3-3, #10)
-Beat Bemidji to remove any doubt about the top seed in this section, and pulled out a win over Hill-Murray to keep themselves in the top ten. They’re undefeated in their last 15, and with a prolific top line and some serious talent on defense, they’ve separated themselves from the pack in a very deep section. Now we’ll see if they can close the deal.
2. St. Michael-Albertville (19-4-2, #20)
-Cruised through the final week of their schedule and head into sections with their highest seed in school history. Nothing will come easy, even in the first round against St. Cloud, but with home games there and against Roseau (or Buffalo), their road to the final is fairly agreeable. Mitch Bourgerie’s absence could make it tough to keep pace with Moorhead or Bemidji, though.
3. Roseau (16-9, #25)
-Were better in the first half of the season than the second, but there is some firepower here, and they’re well within striking distance of the top seeds. Buffalo could just as easily foul things up in the first round, though.
4. Brainerd
-Aiming to go three of four against Bemidji this season in their first round game.
5. Bemidji (14-10-1, #16)
-It’s not often the team I have ranked second-best in a section gets a 5-seed. The Lumberjacks will have to do it the hard way to win a third straight 8AA crown, and the way their schedule lines up, it’s conceivable—on paper, anyway—that their easiest section game would be the final, as it would be at a neutral site against a team they beat in their most recent meeting. But, that’s getting ahead of ourselves: first they’ll look to ride their strong goaltending and resurgent offense to a win over Brainerd.
6. Buffalo
7. St. Cloud
8. Rogers
My work here is (mostly) done. Enjoy the playoffs!
1. Eden Prairie (19-4-2)
2. Edina (18-6-1)
3. Elk River (21-4)
4. Stillwater (22-3)
5. Holy Family (20-4-1)
6. St. Thomas Academy (20-4-1)
7. Centennial (20-4-1)
8. Lakeville North (18-5-2)
9. Maple Grove (19-6)
10. Moorhead (19-3-3)
11. Hill-Murray (16-5-4)
12. Minnetonka (14-11)
13. White Bear Lake (14-7-4)
14. Duluth East (16-8-1)
15. Prior Lake (16-9)
16. Bemidji (14-10-1)
17. Grand Rapids (17-7-1)
18. Lakeville South (15-9-1)
19. Burnsville (16-8-1)
20. St. Michael-Albertville (19-4-2)
21. Wayzata (7-17-1)
22. Cloquet (15-8-2)
23. Cretin-Derham Hall (18-7)
24. Blaine (13-11-1)
25. Roseau (16-9)
1AA
QF 2/23 High Seed Home
SF 2/25 Rochester Rec Center
F 2/ Rochester Rec Center
1. Lakeville North (18-5-1, #8)
-Had some trouble with Eagan and lost the finale to Prior Lake, so the Panthers aren’t exactly flying high as they head into sections. They will, however, have two warm-up games before they get to the one that matters, and handed South well in their recent meeting. With Stillwater’s strong week, though, the Panthers may now be the odd team out for a seed if the top seeds all advance to State, depending on how much weight their wins over Stillwater and St. Thomas get. This team has nice balance, but has had a tendency to wobble some.
2. Lakeville South (15-9-1, #18)
-The Cougars had an up-and-down close to their season, with a solid win over Duluth East that showed their smothering defense and a loss to Rosemount. Farmington did give them a one-goal game in their second meeting, so a semifinal upset isn’t out of the question. While they lost to North by four in the more recent meeting, I’d expect a closer final; they were missing Josh Ess in that one, and their defense and edge in goal should give them a fighting chance. They just need to find a way to score.
3. Farmington
4. Rochester Century
5. Owatonna
6. Rochester John Marshall
7. Rochester Mayo
8. Dodge County
2AA
QF 2/23 High Seed Home
SF 2/25 BIG/Braemar
F 3/1 Mariucci
1. Eden Prairie (19-4-2, #1)
-A 7-1 shellacking of Minnetonka on the final day of the regular season sets the standard: the Eagles are the team to beat this season. Unlike last season, when things were awfully Mittelstadt-centric, this group seems cohesive and can roll three lines, even as Casey does his thing. If they face Holy Family in the final, though, it could be one of their most serious tests on their way to a title.
2. Holy Family (20-4-1, #5)
-Dropped to Stillwater to end their regular season, a game that again showed their one consistent shortcoming: they control games, but can’t quite finish. Still, a strong, deep defense and great goaltending make them a threat on a statewide stage, and they can skate with anyone, including Eden Prairie. First, they’ll have to beat Minnetonka again to make their first ever section final.
3. Minnetonka (14-11, #12)
-The Skippers didn’t show much in their last meeting with Eden Prairie; it’s hard to shake the sense that they’re still a year away, and not quite in the same league as the Eagles and Fire this season. That said, they gave Holy Family a one-goal game a couple of weeks ago, and have the young sniper talent to pull a semifinal upset.
4. Prior Lake (16-9, #15)
-The Lakers have been playing well down the stretch, and finished off Lakeville North to claim the South Suburban crown. Anywhere else I’d call them a very dangerous semifinal opponent, but Eden Prairie will be a major test.
5. Chaska
6. Chanhassen
7. Shakopee
3AA
1st Round 2/21 High Seed Home
QF 2/23 High Seed Home
2/25 SF Veterans Memorial Arena
3/2 F Ridder Arena
1. St. Thomas Academy (20-4-1, #6)
-The Cadets are on a roll heading into sections, with nine straight wins, and are likely in position to grab a seed if they make State, though there is at least some chance that early loss to Lakeville North could cost them one. 3AA is theirs to lose, though we said that last year. Can they end their AA struggles and prove resilient in a high-pressure situation?
2. Burnsville (16-8-1, #19)
-The Blaze faded some after a January run, but they did pull this off last season, they play smart team defense, and they have one of the state’s most productive players in Roman Ahcan. It’s not crazy to imagine them doing it again, though they’ll need to get past the likes of Eastview first.
3. Eastview
-Decent upset odds here, though they have to get past Jefferson in the quarterfinals.
4. Eagan
5. Rosemount
6. Bloomington Jefferson
7. Park (Cottage Grove)
8. Apple Valley
9. East Ridge
10. Hastings
4AA
QF 2/25 Aldrich
SF 2/8 and 3/1 Aldrich
F 3/3 Aldrich
1. Stillwater (22-3, #4)
-The Ponies probably had the most important final week of anyone out there and they delivered, as they finally solved White Bear Lake in the third period and used a similar late push to knock off Holy Family. They’re not quite as flashy as some of the other top five teams, but the work ethic and experience are there to go all the way, and they’re back in position for a seed at State now. They will have to get past a tough, defensive-minded rival to escape 4AA, though.
2. Hill-Murray (16-5-4, #11)
-Fell in overtime to Moorhead, which confirms their standing toward the upper end of the teams ranked in the double digits. Despite lacking characteristic Hill top-end talent, they have their usual disciplined style and one of the state’s finest goalies in Jake Begley. (In fact, one could argue 4AA has the best three senior goalies in the state.) All signs are that we’re headed toward a great semifinal meeting between two serious rivals that also have very similar teams this season.
3. White Bear Lake (14-7-4, #13)
-Gave Stillwater some fits for a while before the Ponies’ pressure finally did them in. Like Hill, they’re not deep up front, but they’ve got a little bit of firepower, a tough defense, and a rock in goal. They’re certainly capable of pulling this off.
4. Mounds View
5. Woodbury
6. Tartan
7. Roseville
8. North St. Paul
9. Irondale
5AA
2/23 QF Coon Rapids/Champlin
2/25 Champlin
3/2 Aldrich
1. Centennial (20-4-1, #7)
-The Cougars are finishing rather quietly; their only tougher game in the past three weeks was a tie against White Bear Lake. This isn’t a flashy group, but they’re tough, and they’ve got a reasonably deep offense, and while this section still may be on the outside looking in for a seed, they probably won’t go quietly.
2. Maple Grove (19-6, #9)
-The Crimson gave Elk River a one-goal game on their way to a loss on Tuesday, and while that doesn’t change their ranking, it does show that they’re right there with the top teams in the state. They struggled in their second meeting with Centennial, losing 5-0, but they did win the December meeting, and I’d expect a closer game in the final as long as they can get by Blaine. With some quality snipers and strong goaltending, it’s not hard to see them pulling this one out.
3. Blaine (13-11-1, #24)
-The Bengals dropped one to Champlin Park and are certainly a step behind the top two in 5AA, but they did beat Maple Grove once this season, and with some quality young talent, it’s not crazy to imagine them doing it again. It’s certainly a chance to atone for last season, when they were the senior-heavy favorite and fell at the hands of an upstart.
4. Champlin Park
5. Anoka
6. Coon Rapids
7. Spring Lake Park
8. Osseo
6AA
QF 2/23 High Seed Home
SF 2/25 Braemar/BIG
F 3/1 Mariucci
1. Edina (18-6-1, #2)
-A 1-0 win over Wayzata on the season’s final day is awfully close for comfort. That said, this group has the talent to win it all, and with the schedule they’ve played, they’ll deserve the 2-seed if they make it through to State. Their only risk is probably getting caught in a low-scoring, tight game with a Wayzata team that knows how to get it done.
2. Cretin-Derham Hall (18-7, #23)
-This team hasn’t done much against ranked opposition, but they’ve got a couple of good young talents and a competitive game with Wayzata under their belts, so a second straight section final is within the reach if their young guns score enough.
3. Wayzata (7-17-1, #21)
-Could a 10-win team make the Tourney? It’s certainly not impossible, as they’ve given Edina two pretty tight games. They have the defensive style to do it, but they also have to avoid doing stupid things in the first two rounds; Cretin is certainly a threat to knock them off.
4. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (8-16-1)
-Finished with a run of wins against middling competition; I’m not sure they have the horses to give Edina a run this season, but stranger things have happened.
5. St. Louis Park
6. Armstrong/Cooper
7. Holy Angels
8. Hopkins
7AA
1st Round 2/18 (Forest Lake def. Cambridge 10-1)
QF 2/21 High Seed Home
SF 2/25 Amsoil
F 3/2 Amsoil
1. Elk River (21-4, #3)
-Picked off Maple Grove to round out an excellent regular season, and with their two chief rivals for the 7AA crown going backwards, they’re sitting as far clear of the field as they ever had heading into the playoffs. Their depth, balance, and discipline are all hallmarks of a team primed for a deep run. , and Grand Rapids’ drop to the 4-seed negated
2. Duluth East (16-8-1, #14)
-The Hounds fell flat toward the end, with a listless loss to Lakeville South rounding out their regular season. They should sail in the first round, though, and are potential beneficiaries of Grand Rapids sinking to #4, though Cloquet (and Marshall) are big enough rivals that it’s not crazy to imagine something happening in the semifinals. They’re pretty good across the board, but can they find the greatness necessary to make a playoff run?
3. Cloquet (15-8-2, #22)
-The Lumberjacks made a statement with a strong win over Grand Rapids, and now find themselves with a 3-seed. Their two wins over Marshall were fairly close, so that one isn’t a foregone conclusion, and while East has handled them twice, they’ll have a shot if they can apply as much pressure as they did against Rapids.
4. Grand Rapids (17-7-1, #17)
-A bad late-season run culminated in an ugly loss to Cloquet, and it cost the Thunderhawks a 3-seed. The talent is obvious, but so are the flaws, and a strong forecheck can give them fits. Perhaps no team is a bigger wild card heading into sections.
5. Andover
-Tied Grand Rapids during the regular season, for whatever it’s worth, and now get a crack at the reeling Thunderhawks at IRA in the first round.
6. Duluth Marshall
7. St. Francis
8. Forest Lake
9. Cambridge (eliminated)
8AA
QF 2/21 High Seed Home
SF 2/25 High Seed Home
F 3/1 TRF/SCSU/Bemidji
1. Moorhead (19-3-3, #10)
-Beat Bemidji to remove any doubt about the top seed in this section, and pulled out a win over Hill-Murray to keep themselves in the top ten. They’re undefeated in their last 15, and with a prolific top line and some serious talent on defense, they’ve separated themselves from the pack in a very deep section. Now we’ll see if they can close the deal.
2. St. Michael-Albertville (19-4-2, #20)
-Cruised through the final week of their schedule and head into sections with their highest seed in school history. Nothing will come easy, even in the first round against St. Cloud, but with home games there and against Roseau (or Buffalo), their road to the final is fairly agreeable. Mitch Bourgerie’s absence could make it tough to keep pace with Moorhead or Bemidji, though.
3. Roseau (16-9, #25)
-Were better in the first half of the season than the second, but there is some firepower here, and they’re well within striking distance of the top seeds. Buffalo could just as easily foul things up in the first round, though.
4. Brainerd
-Aiming to go three of four against Bemidji this season in their first round game.
5. Bemidji (14-10-1, #16)
-It’s not often the team I have ranked second-best in a section gets a 5-seed. The Lumberjacks will have to do it the hard way to win a third straight 8AA crown, and the way their schedule lines up, it’s conceivable—on paper, anyway—that their easiest section game would be the final, as it would be at a neutral site against a team they beat in their most recent meeting. But, that’s getting ahead of ourselves: first they’ll look to ride their strong goaltending and resurgent offense to a win over Brainerd.
6. Buffalo
7. St. Cloud
8. Rogers
My work here is (mostly) done. Enjoy the playoffs!
