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We had the first editions of PS2 and QRF come out in the past two days. Personally I find PS2 a much better guide, though Cloquet being so high does jump out as a surprise, I'm guessing because the loss to Superior doesn't weigh on the computer's mind as much as it does on mine. Lee, can you remind me how you handle those out of state games? Other than that, Stillwater is the only real surprise here. Greenway is the top-rated A team, followed by Mahtomedi and Hermantown.

http://minnhock.com/ps2018.htm

And here's QRF, which can do some loopy stuff, especially early on:

http://minnesota-scores.net/classqrf.ph ... 9&class=-2

These rankings are hilarious. Hermantown is ranked 39th in Class A behind Breckenridge and Waseca just to mention two.

No section should use QRF to seed...it is a joke.

Lee..Holy Family didn't tie Wayzata they beat them 5-1..

HockeyonFire wrote:No section should use QRF to seed...it is a joke.

Couldn’t agree more. So glad section 7AA decided to use it..NOT! No computer can see how the games are played.

HockeyonFire wrote:No section should use QRF to seed...it is a joke.

Lee..Holy Family didn't tie Wayzata they beat them 5-1..

Thanks for catching that, Fire. I've made the correction--this moved HF up a few spots and rearranged a few others.

Lee

Usthockey13 wrote:

HockeyonFire wrote:No section should use QRF to seed...it is a joke.

Couldn’t agree more. So glad section 7AA decided to use it..NOT! No computer can see how the games are played.

You won't get an argument from me on this. One problem with QRF, PageStat and any other system is that it considers an in-section game to be worth the same as an out-section game. For section seeding purposes, shouldn't those games be weighed more heavily? I think they should.

Lee

karl(east) wrote:We had the first editions of PS2 and QRF come out in the past two days. Personally I find PS2 a much better guide, though Cloquet being so high does jump out as a surprise, I'm guessing because the loss to Superior doesn't weigh on the computer's mind as much as it does on mine. Lee, can you remind me how you handle those out of state games? Other than that, Stillwater is the only real surprise here. Greenway is the top-rated A team, followed by Mahtomedi and Hermantown.

http://minnhock.com/ps2018.htm

And here's QRF, which can do some loopy stuff, especially early on:

http://minnesota-scores.net/classqrf.ph ... 9&class=-2

Karl, out-of-state games are considered the same as in-state games. Cloquet's goal differential is high given their W/L record, so that's why their rating is high. The other thing boosting their rating is their SOS (11th in Minnesota). At one time I didn't rank games played out-of-state but it created some weird effects (I call this the La Crescent factor) when a team played the majority of their games against such competition. La Crescent, for example, has only played three of their first seven games against Minnesota teams.

Lee

I’ve always thought PageStat produced intuitively correct results , year in and year out

For example this year, even though season is young....

......The top 10 as a group is arguably correct, so is top 15. Could at least make a case for top 20 as well, those that might be missing are in the next 5 .

QRF always has some extreme outliers, which makes the model suspect as a whole

east hockey wrote:

karl(east) wrote:We had the first editions of PS2 and QRF come out in the past two days. Personally I find PS2 a much better guide, though Cloquet being so high does jump out as a surprise, I'm guessing because the loss to Superior doesn't weigh on the computer's mind as much as it does on mine. Lee, can you remind me how you handle those out of state games? Other than that, Stillwater is the only real surprise here. Greenway is the top-rated A team, followed by Mahtomedi and Hermantown.

http://minnhock.com/ps2018.htm

And here's QRF, which can do some loopy stuff, especially early on:

http://minnesota-scores.net/classqrf.ph ... 9&class=-2

Karl, out-of-state games are considered the same as in-state games. Cloquet's goal differential is high given their W/L record, so that's why their rating is high. The other thing boosting their rating is their SOS (11th in Minnesota). At one time I didn't rank games played out-of-state but it created some weird effects (I call this the La Crescent factor) when a team played the majority of their games against such competition. La Crescent, for example, has only played three of their first seven games against Minnesota teams.

Lee

Thanks, Lee. So as Superior plays more games against MN competition, that could conceivably affect Cloquet's rating based on how they do relative to those other teams playing Superior, right?

karl(east) wrote:

east hockey wrote:

karl(east) wrote:We had the first editions of PS2 and QRF come out in the past two days. Personally I find PS2 a much better guide, though Cloquet being so high does jump out as a surprise, I'm guessing because the loss to Superior doesn't weigh on the computer's mind as much as it does on mine. Lee, can you remind me how you handle those out of state games? Other than that, Stillwater is the only real surprise here. Greenway is the top-rated A team, followed by Mahtomedi and Hermantown.

http://minnhock.com/ps2018.htm

And here's QRF, which can do some loopy stuff, especially early on:

http://minnesota-scores.net/classqrf.ph ... 9&class=-2

Karl, out-of-state games are considered the same as in-state games. Cloquet's goal differential is high given their W/L record, so that's why their rating is high. The other thing boosting their rating is their SOS (11th in Minnesota). At one time I didn't rank games played out-of-state but it created some weird effects (I call this the La Crescent factor) when a team played the majority of their games against such competition. La Crescent, for example, has only played three of their first seven games against Minnesota teams.

Lee

Thanks, Lee. So as Superior plays more games against MN competition, that could conceivably affect Cloquet's rating based on how they do relative to those other teams playing Superior, right?

It will. Right now, because Superior has only played one Minnesota team, Cloquet's game score in the Superior game was neutral. Once Superior starts losing to other Minnesota teams not rated as highly as Superior, it will drag Cloquet's game score (and thus their overall rating) down.

But yeah, you got the gist of how it works. All games are interconnected, sort of like how RPI works in college hockey.

Lee

And what if Superior wins?

Like they did against North Shore, 6-1.

elliott70 wrote:And what if Superior wins?

Like they did against North Shore, 6-1.

That game gets thrown out by PageStat because Superior's rating was more than six points higher than North Shore's--if it was included, North Shore's PageStat would go up even if they had lost 20-0. 54 games have been affected by the cap so far this season (out of 514 total games).

Lee

east hockey wrote:

elliott70 wrote:And what if Superior wins?

Like they did against North Shore, 6-1.

That game gets thrown out by PageStat because Superior's rating was more than six points higher than North Shore's--if it was included, North Shore's PageStat would go up even if they had lost 20-0. 54 games have been affected by the cap so far this season (out of 514 total games).

Lee

Perhaps you should send me your formula. I would not understand it but I could tweak it for you.

elliott70 wrote:

east hockey wrote:

elliott70 wrote:And what if Superior wins?

Like they did against North Shore, 6-1.

That game gets thrown out by PageStat because Superior's rating was more than six points higher than North Shore's--if it was included, North Shore's PageStat would go up even if they had lost 20-0. 54 games have been affected by the cap so far this season (out of 514 total games).

Lee

Perhaps you should send me your formula. I would not understand it but I could tweak it for you.

Yeah, I'd get it back and the formula for I Falls would have a +4 at the end

Lee

I am confused on your statement about Superior. In the FAQ’s. http://www.minnesota-scores.net/faq.php Other than football it states all non-MN games are not calculated.

Am I missing something?

Duluth_Topper wrote:I am confused on your statement about Superior. In the FAQ’s. http://www.minnesota-scores.net/faq.php Other than football it states all non-MN games are not calculated.

Am I missing something?

QRF apparently doesn't. PageStat does.

Lee

Usthockey13 wrote:

HockeyonFire wrote:No section should use QRF to seed...it is a joke.

Couldn’t agree more. So glad section 7AA decided to use it..NOT! No computer can see how the games are played.

The seedings from the section 7AA coaches have been a joke for many years now, so I’m not sure that experimenting with QRF could be any worse. Plus, the computerized ratings should stabilize as the season progresses. There just isn’t enough data for accurate results yet.

I think the hair covered computer rankings are better on here.

Superior only beating Proctor 1-0 tonight did damage to Cloquet's PageStat rating, dropping it a full two points and about ten places in the ratings.

Lee

Last time it was explained (and it doesn’t seem to have changed) the QRF treats every team in a class the same. I don’t know how it works for in class games but all games against a team of a different class are treated the same. Which ends up doing really wonky things in football conferences that are split between two classes.

Latest PageStat ratings just posted to minnhock.com

http://minnhock.com/ps2018.htm

Strength of Schedule:

http://minnhock.com/strength.htm

I'd have to go back over the records and see if there has ever been a case where the top 18 teams are all Class AA teams. Off the top of my head, I don't recall it ever happening before.

How close is it at the top of Class A? Yesterday Hermantown had a 0.01 lead over Mahtomedi. Today Mahtomedi leads by 0.08. Neither team played yesterday, but the opponents SOS changed just enough for these two teams to shift their ratings ever so slightly. "Ever so slightly" was enough to flip #1 and #2. The same thing happened in Class AA where Holy Family replaced Cretin at #6. Proving, again, that it's not just who you play but who they play making enough difference in PageStat to move some teams a position or two up or down even when they don't play on a given day.

Fun stuff to watch.

I don't have the sections rated by PageStat rating. Yet. Maybe tomorrow.

Lee

3AA and 4AA are going to wars to get out of the section as they are both 6 deep.

3 teams, at least, in front of Mahtomedi opted up to AA.

The difference between Moorhead and Brainerd is .008, wow! Being the #1 seed there is significant. .

Two top 5 games this week:

Edina vs WBL - Thursday at Braemar
Tonka vs East - Saturday at Pagel

Not that it matters but curious to see Edina ahead of Tonka despite the 1 loss and having the lower SOS per their own site.

I thought it would be fun to take a look back.

20 years ago this week in PageStat:

http://minnhock.com/ps19980105.htm

10 years ago this week in PageStat:

http://minnhock.com/ps20080104.htm