AA Rankings for 2/11/18
Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:24 am
It was a relatively unremarkable week outside of three interesting games for top five teams, so a lot of teams just tread water as we head into the final week. If things aren’t feeling right within this, though, I may pull a readjustment or two next week as we head into sections. For now, though:
1. Minnetonka (19-2-2)
-The revolving door among the top four continues, but the Skippers made a statement on Saturday, as they took their second of three meetings with Edina. They’ve hit some bumps, but now that they’re fully healthy, their depth and balance makes them tough to beat. They’ve got one last conference game with Wayzata this week to put an exclamation point on their season and line themselves up for the top seed at State if they get through 2AA.
This week: Thurs vs. #10 Wayzata, Sat vs. Blake
2. Edina (21-2)
-A second loss to Minnetonka brings back some of those old questions about the Hornets in close games, and for all their talent . Both their conference opponents this week were competitive for the first meeting, so we’ll see if they can go into sections on a roll or if there’s more reason for doubt.
This week: Thurs at Eden Prairie, Sat vs. #10 Wayzata
3. St. Thomas Academy (20-2-1)
-A blowout win over Mahtomedi restores order after the Marshall loss, and with East dropping a game this past week, they edge ahead of the Hounds in the State seeding pecking order should the big four all make it. They have two potentially competitive games this week, including one that could be a state tournament quarterfinal preview.
This week: Tues vs. Stillwater, Thurs at Lakeville North
4. Duluth East (19-2-3)
-The Hounds took a tumble against Cloquet, which adds some new intrigue to 7AA. They’ll be facing a lot of teams that trap and collapse against them, just as the Jacks did, so they’ll need to find ways through that and not panic when teams do stick around. They did a decent job of that against Lakeville South later in the week, and will likely face more of the same in Maple Grove.
This week: Tues at Maple Grove
5. Cretin-Derham Hall (19-3-2)
-A tie with Stillwater is the latest in a series of red flags, including a narrow win over East Ridge and a game with lowly Roseville that stayed competitive for a while. A 10-1 win is a 10-1 win, so for now I’m not dropping the Raiders, but they’re certainly on notice heading into sections, and have given Wayzata a better case for the 2-seed, whatever that’s worth.
This week: Thurs at Park (Cottage Grove)
6. Holy Family (19-3-1)
-The Fire took care of business last week, with decisive wins over an Orono team that tied them in December and a Prior Lake team they may face in a section semifinal. On paper they should win their last two, but upsets aren’t out of the question.
This week: Tues at St. Cloud Cathedral, Sat at Stillwater
7. White Bear Lake (17-3-2)
-The Bears had a successful trip north, and have settled into a rhythm since their Cretin loss. They have a busy final week, but Blaine is the only one who really even has a shot of making things interesting.
This week: Tues at Park (Cottage Grove), Thurs vs. Woodbury, Fri vs. Blaine
8. Moorhead (17-6)
-The Spuds were idle this past week. Given the transitive property relationships of the teams above them and some of the recent struggles or questions in there, it’s tempting to pull the trigger on a team that we know has potential and slide them up, perhaps as high as #5. But the body of work just doesn’t quite justify that right now. They face Bemidji for a second time before finishing things off by hosting Hill-Murray, which will be a helpful point of comparison given the Pioneers’ other recent games against competent teams. Though they sit behind White Bear right now, I’d nudge them ahead of the Bears for State seeding purposes if they both go through, as they’ll be coming out of a stronger section.
This week: Tues vs. Bemidji, Sat vs. Hill-Murray
9. Brainerd (18-5)
-The Warriors have rattled off seven in a row now, with their most recent week highlighted by a win over Alexandria. They’ve got some saintly section opponents this week, which could yet have some effect on the seeding.
This week: Tues vs. St. Michael-Albertville, Thurs vs. St. Cloud
10. Wayzata (14-8-1)
-The Trojans fought their way past Eden Prairie, and continue to beat teams they should beat. They close with a bang, with visits to Minnetonka and Edina, so we’ll see if they can disrupt something before heading into the 6AA fight.
This week: Thurs at #1 Minnetonka, Sat at #2 Edina
11. Andover (18-5)
-The Huskies bounced back from their Maple Grove loss with easy wins in conference play. They should get themselves to a 20-win season this week.
This week: Tues at Coon Rapids, Thurs vs. Irondale
12. Centennial (14-6-3)
-As with Andover, the Cougars did what they needed to do against two opponents from the weaker division of the Northwest Suburban, and should do more of the same this coming week.
This week: Thurs vs. Totino-Grace, Sat at Spring Lake Park
13. Eastview (19-4)
-The Lightning pulled out a tight one against Lakeville South to keep up its winning ways. The finale against Prior Lake will be their final regular season challenge before gearing up for the playoffs. We’ll see if they have any chance against St. Thomas.
This week: Tues vs. Apple Valley, Sat at Prior Lake
14. Cloquet (17-6-1)
-The Lumberjacks return to the land of the ranked after a win over Duluth East, and accentuates a strong run toward the end of this regular season that has them looking at a 3-seed in 7AA. If they can take care of a semi-improving Grand Rapids, that shouldn’t be an issue.
This week: Tues at Grand Rapids
15. Duluth Marshall (15-7-2)
-The Hilltoppers fought their way past Hill-Murray in the third period, which neither helps nor hurts them here. They face a quality Class A opponent in their lone game this week.
This week: Tues at Greenway
The Next Ten
Elk River (16-7)
-Won both of their games last week comfortably, but drop from the top 15 to accommodate Cloquet. They have a potential challenge against Hill-Murray (a team potential quarterfinal opponent Duluth Marshall narrowly defeated just this past week) on Wednesday, and wrap up against Armstrong/Cooper.
Rosemount (18-4)
-The Irish pounded Eagan to secure the 3-seed in 3AA, and are one a good run as they head into sections. This week’s Lakeville North game has some implications for this part of the rankings, and they’ve got Holy Angels and Farmington as well.
Lakeville North (12-9-1)
-Did what they needed to do against Farmington and Shakopee. The Panthers have one of the tougher final weeks out there, as they play another quality conference opponent in Rosemount, a top five team in St. Thomas, and a rematch against a section rival South that could well settle a top seed in the section.
Chaska (16-7)
-The Hawks had a productive week offensively as they cruised to three straight wins. They can beat up on teams that can’t match their talent, but do they have any shot against the 2AA elite? Orono will offer them their final regular season test this coming week.
Lakeville South (11-10-2)
-The Cougars lost a couple of fairly low-scoring games to Duluth East and Eastview. They’re the sort of team that could steal a game by playing tight defensively, but anything more than that may be a reach. The good news is that they’re in a section where that may be enough to make it to State. They’ll take their second crack at North this week, and have Prior Lake as well.
Eden Prairie (9-13-1)
-The Eagles gave Wayzata a one goal game and beat a respectable Benilde team, so they hold steady among the teams mentioned. They get a third shot at Edina this week before rounding out their season against Hopkins.
St. Michael-Albertville (18-5)
-A shutout win over Maple Grove is one of the Knights’ better results on the season, and they’re cruising against everyone else. They have one last shot to improve their standing in 8AA when they host Brainerd on Tuesday.
Hill-Murray (9-10-4)
-The Pioneers had a productive in-section win over Tartan and gave Duluth Marshall a good fight, so they stick around
Stillwater (12-9-1)
-The Ponies surged back into the conversation this past week with a convincing win over a decent Forest Lake team and a tie with Cretin. It’s not impossible to imagine them coming out of 4AA, even in a season that has had some down stretches. They have a very tough final week, with games against St. Thomas and Holy Family.
Eagan (13-9-1)
-The Wildcats had an ugly week, with lopsided losses to Burnsville and Rosemount, and barely hold on to ranked status. They should restore some order against Shakopee and Apple Valley this week, but may have cost themselves a top-4 seed.
One last section projection:
1AA
18 Lakeville North
20 Lakeville South
Rochester Century
Owatonna
-The Lakevilles meet again this week, which should determine the top seed here. I’d put Rochester Century as the 3-seed—tying Northfield this past week isn’t confidence-inspiring—but as I’ve said a few times, they have a case for #1 with their record. Owatonna, with a 1-0-1 record against Mayo, should land the 4-seed.
2AA
1 Minnetonka
6 Holy Family
Prior Lake
21 Eden Prairie
19 Chaska
-Minnetonka’s second win over Edina should erase any minor lingering doubt over the order of the top two. The seeding for 3-5 remains potentially foggy: Prior Lake has the head-to-head wins, Chaska has the superior record, and Eden Prairie is the highest team in PS2, and probably the team Minnetonka would prefer to avoid in a semifinal, despite two 3-goal wins. I’m giving Prior Lake #3 on account of concrete results, and Eden Prairie #4 since they have a few more quality results than Chaska does, but it could go a number of different ways.
3AA
3 St. Thomas Academy
13 Eastview
17 Rosemount
Burnsville
-The top three should be locked in here after the latest results. The 4-seed, on the other hand, gets interesting: while Eagan has had the best year of anyone else here, they’ve lost twice to Burnsville, and the Blaze perform well in PS2 despite a tough record. Because of that, I’m giving them the 4-seed, though there are certainly alternative cases here.
4AA
7 White Bear Lake
23 Hill-Murray
24 Stillwater
Tartan
-Hill’s win over Tartan clarifies this one some, with the Pioneers and Ponies likely in line for the 2- and 3-seeds. They could go either way; I’m leaning toward the Pioneers based on QRF and some quality results, but could see an alternative case. Tartan will land the 4-seed.
5AA
12 Centennial
Maple Grove
Blaine
Champlin Park
-The Cougars pulled away for the top seed, and in an ugly section, Maple Grove has done enough to be assured of #2. After that, this week’s Blaine-Champlin Park game will likely settle the 3-seed, with the loser taking #4 and drawing Anoka in the quarterfinals.
6AA
2 Edina
10 Wayzata
5 Cretin-Derham Hall
St. Louis Park
-If Wayzata can beat Edina on Saturday, they should take the 2-seed given their head-to-head win over Cretin; even if they don’t, I’m going to argue they have a pretty good case for it given their win over Cretin and much tougher schedule. Either way, those two are on a collision course for semifinal Saturday, and this week’s St. Louis Park-Benilde game will settle who gets to wear white in the 4/5 game.
7AA
4 Duluth East
11 Andover
14 Cloquet
16 Elk River
15 Duluth Marshall
-Unless Cloquet drops the ball in Grand Rapids, the major real chance of change ahead of the final QRF ranking on Friday is who gets the home game in the Elk River-Marshall quarterfinal, which could come down to the wire. That one will have plenty of intrigue, and Cloquet isn’t necessarily safe against #6 Forest Lake given their regular season meeting either. Given the tiebreakers, there is still probably a scenario in which Elk River could overtake Cloquet for the 3-seed, too.
8AA
8 Moorhead
9 Brainerd
22 St. Michael-Albertville
St. Cloud
-I could go either way on the top seed here; I’m giving it to Moorhead on body of work, but the Warriors did win the more recent meeting, so that could swing things here. Beyond that, a few teams will try to disrupt that collision course. Roseau has some case for a home game since their schedule had more strong teams on it than St. Michael or St. Cloud, but they don’t really have any results to point to on that schedule that I think would make that happen. Still, they’ll be a tough quarterfinal opponent.
1. Minnetonka (19-2-2)
-The revolving door among the top four continues, but the Skippers made a statement on Saturday, as they took their second of three meetings with Edina. They’ve hit some bumps, but now that they’re fully healthy, their depth and balance makes them tough to beat. They’ve got one last conference game with Wayzata this week to put an exclamation point on their season and line themselves up for the top seed at State if they get through 2AA.
This week: Thurs vs. #10 Wayzata, Sat vs. Blake
2. Edina (21-2)
-A second loss to Minnetonka brings back some of those old questions about the Hornets in close games, and for all their talent . Both their conference opponents this week were competitive for the first meeting, so we’ll see if they can go into sections on a roll or if there’s more reason for doubt.
This week: Thurs at Eden Prairie, Sat vs. #10 Wayzata
3. St. Thomas Academy (20-2-1)
-A blowout win over Mahtomedi restores order after the Marshall loss, and with East dropping a game this past week, they edge ahead of the Hounds in the State seeding pecking order should the big four all make it. They have two potentially competitive games this week, including one that could be a state tournament quarterfinal preview.
This week: Tues vs. Stillwater, Thurs at Lakeville North
4. Duluth East (19-2-3)
-The Hounds took a tumble against Cloquet, which adds some new intrigue to 7AA. They’ll be facing a lot of teams that trap and collapse against them, just as the Jacks did, so they’ll need to find ways through that and not panic when teams do stick around. They did a decent job of that against Lakeville South later in the week, and will likely face more of the same in Maple Grove.
This week: Tues at Maple Grove
5. Cretin-Derham Hall (19-3-2)
-A tie with Stillwater is the latest in a series of red flags, including a narrow win over East Ridge and a game with lowly Roseville that stayed competitive for a while. A 10-1 win is a 10-1 win, so for now I’m not dropping the Raiders, but they’re certainly on notice heading into sections, and have given Wayzata a better case for the 2-seed, whatever that’s worth.
This week: Thurs at Park (Cottage Grove)
6. Holy Family (19-3-1)
-The Fire took care of business last week, with decisive wins over an Orono team that tied them in December and a Prior Lake team they may face in a section semifinal. On paper they should win their last two, but upsets aren’t out of the question.
This week: Tues at St. Cloud Cathedral, Sat at Stillwater
7. White Bear Lake (17-3-2)
-The Bears had a successful trip north, and have settled into a rhythm since their Cretin loss. They have a busy final week, but Blaine is the only one who really even has a shot of making things interesting.
This week: Tues at Park (Cottage Grove), Thurs vs. Woodbury, Fri vs. Blaine
8. Moorhead (17-6)
-The Spuds were idle this past week. Given the transitive property relationships of the teams above them and some of the recent struggles or questions in there, it’s tempting to pull the trigger on a team that we know has potential and slide them up, perhaps as high as #5. But the body of work just doesn’t quite justify that right now. They face Bemidji for a second time before finishing things off by hosting Hill-Murray, which will be a helpful point of comparison given the Pioneers’ other recent games against competent teams. Though they sit behind White Bear right now, I’d nudge them ahead of the Bears for State seeding purposes if they both go through, as they’ll be coming out of a stronger section.
This week: Tues vs. Bemidji, Sat vs. Hill-Murray
9. Brainerd (18-5)
-The Warriors have rattled off seven in a row now, with their most recent week highlighted by a win over Alexandria. They’ve got some saintly section opponents this week, which could yet have some effect on the seeding.
This week: Tues vs. St. Michael-Albertville, Thurs vs. St. Cloud
10. Wayzata (14-8-1)
-The Trojans fought their way past Eden Prairie, and continue to beat teams they should beat. They close with a bang, with visits to Minnetonka and Edina, so we’ll see if they can disrupt something before heading into the 6AA fight.
This week: Thurs at #1 Minnetonka, Sat at #2 Edina
11. Andover (18-5)
-The Huskies bounced back from their Maple Grove loss with easy wins in conference play. They should get themselves to a 20-win season this week.
This week: Tues at Coon Rapids, Thurs vs. Irondale
12. Centennial (14-6-3)
-As with Andover, the Cougars did what they needed to do against two opponents from the weaker division of the Northwest Suburban, and should do more of the same this coming week.
This week: Thurs vs. Totino-Grace, Sat at Spring Lake Park
13. Eastview (19-4)
-The Lightning pulled out a tight one against Lakeville South to keep up its winning ways. The finale against Prior Lake will be their final regular season challenge before gearing up for the playoffs. We’ll see if they have any chance against St. Thomas.
This week: Tues vs. Apple Valley, Sat at Prior Lake
14. Cloquet (17-6-1)
-The Lumberjacks return to the land of the ranked after a win over Duluth East, and accentuates a strong run toward the end of this regular season that has them looking at a 3-seed in 7AA. If they can take care of a semi-improving Grand Rapids, that shouldn’t be an issue.
This week: Tues at Grand Rapids
15. Duluth Marshall (15-7-2)
-The Hilltoppers fought their way past Hill-Murray in the third period, which neither helps nor hurts them here. They face a quality Class A opponent in their lone game this week.
This week: Tues at Greenway
The Next Ten
Elk River (16-7)
-Won both of their games last week comfortably, but drop from the top 15 to accommodate Cloquet. They have a potential challenge against Hill-Murray (a team potential quarterfinal opponent Duluth Marshall narrowly defeated just this past week) on Wednesday, and wrap up against Armstrong/Cooper.
Rosemount (18-4)
-The Irish pounded Eagan to secure the 3-seed in 3AA, and are one a good run as they head into sections. This week’s Lakeville North game has some implications for this part of the rankings, and they’ve got Holy Angels and Farmington as well.
Lakeville North (12-9-1)
-Did what they needed to do against Farmington and Shakopee. The Panthers have one of the tougher final weeks out there, as they play another quality conference opponent in Rosemount, a top five team in St. Thomas, and a rematch against a section rival South that could well settle a top seed in the section.
Chaska (16-7)
-The Hawks had a productive week offensively as they cruised to three straight wins. They can beat up on teams that can’t match their talent, but do they have any shot against the 2AA elite? Orono will offer them their final regular season test this coming week.
Lakeville South (11-10-2)
-The Cougars lost a couple of fairly low-scoring games to Duluth East and Eastview. They’re the sort of team that could steal a game by playing tight defensively, but anything more than that may be a reach. The good news is that they’re in a section where that may be enough to make it to State. They’ll take their second crack at North this week, and have Prior Lake as well.
Eden Prairie (9-13-1)
-The Eagles gave Wayzata a one goal game and beat a respectable Benilde team, so they hold steady among the teams mentioned. They get a third shot at Edina this week before rounding out their season against Hopkins.
St. Michael-Albertville (18-5)
-A shutout win over Maple Grove is one of the Knights’ better results on the season, and they’re cruising against everyone else. They have one last shot to improve their standing in 8AA when they host Brainerd on Tuesday.
Hill-Murray (9-10-4)
-The Pioneers had a productive in-section win over Tartan and gave Duluth Marshall a good fight, so they stick around
Stillwater (12-9-1)
-The Ponies surged back into the conversation this past week with a convincing win over a decent Forest Lake team and a tie with Cretin. It’s not impossible to imagine them coming out of 4AA, even in a season that has had some down stretches. They have a very tough final week, with games against St. Thomas and Holy Family.
Eagan (13-9-1)
-The Wildcats had an ugly week, with lopsided losses to Burnsville and Rosemount, and barely hold on to ranked status. They should restore some order against Shakopee and Apple Valley this week, but may have cost themselves a top-4 seed.
One last section projection:
1AA
18 Lakeville North
20 Lakeville South
Rochester Century
Owatonna
-The Lakevilles meet again this week, which should determine the top seed here. I’d put Rochester Century as the 3-seed—tying Northfield this past week isn’t confidence-inspiring—but as I’ve said a few times, they have a case for #1 with their record. Owatonna, with a 1-0-1 record against Mayo, should land the 4-seed.
2AA
1 Minnetonka
6 Holy Family
Prior Lake
21 Eden Prairie
19 Chaska
-Minnetonka’s second win over Edina should erase any minor lingering doubt over the order of the top two. The seeding for 3-5 remains potentially foggy: Prior Lake has the head-to-head wins, Chaska has the superior record, and Eden Prairie is the highest team in PS2, and probably the team Minnetonka would prefer to avoid in a semifinal, despite two 3-goal wins. I’m giving Prior Lake #3 on account of concrete results, and Eden Prairie #4 since they have a few more quality results than Chaska does, but it could go a number of different ways.
3AA
3 St. Thomas Academy
13 Eastview
17 Rosemount
Burnsville
-The top three should be locked in here after the latest results. The 4-seed, on the other hand, gets interesting: while Eagan has had the best year of anyone else here, they’ve lost twice to Burnsville, and the Blaze perform well in PS2 despite a tough record. Because of that, I’m giving them the 4-seed, though there are certainly alternative cases here.
4AA
7 White Bear Lake
23 Hill-Murray
24 Stillwater
Tartan
-Hill’s win over Tartan clarifies this one some, with the Pioneers and Ponies likely in line for the 2- and 3-seeds. They could go either way; I’m leaning toward the Pioneers based on QRF and some quality results, but could see an alternative case. Tartan will land the 4-seed.
5AA
12 Centennial
Maple Grove
Blaine
Champlin Park
-The Cougars pulled away for the top seed, and in an ugly section, Maple Grove has done enough to be assured of #2. After that, this week’s Blaine-Champlin Park game will likely settle the 3-seed, with the loser taking #4 and drawing Anoka in the quarterfinals.
6AA
2 Edina
10 Wayzata
5 Cretin-Derham Hall
St. Louis Park
-If Wayzata can beat Edina on Saturday, they should take the 2-seed given their head-to-head win over Cretin; even if they don’t, I’m going to argue they have a pretty good case for it given their win over Cretin and much tougher schedule. Either way, those two are on a collision course for semifinal Saturday, and this week’s St. Louis Park-Benilde game will settle who gets to wear white in the 4/5 game.
7AA
4 Duluth East
11 Andover
14 Cloquet
16 Elk River
15 Duluth Marshall
-Unless Cloquet drops the ball in Grand Rapids, the major real chance of change ahead of the final QRF ranking on Friday is who gets the home game in the Elk River-Marshall quarterfinal, which could come down to the wire. That one will have plenty of intrigue, and Cloquet isn’t necessarily safe against #6 Forest Lake given their regular season meeting either. Given the tiebreakers, there is still probably a scenario in which Elk River could overtake Cloquet for the 3-seed, too.
8AA
8 Moorhead
9 Brainerd
22 St. Michael-Albertville
St. Cloud
-I could go either way on the top seed here; I’m giving it to Moorhead on body of work, but the Warriors did win the more recent meeting, so that could swing things here. Beyond that, a few teams will try to disrupt that collision course. Roseau has some case for a home game since their schedule had more strong teams on it than St. Michael or St. Cloud, but they don’t really have any results to point to on that schedule that I think would make that happen. Still, they’ll be a tough quarterfinal opponent.