AA Rankings for 12/30/18
Posted: Sun Dec 30, 2018 8:36 am
Well, that wasn’t easy. My guide here, as usual, is a team’s record against quality opponents, and at this point in the season, one result in a certain direction can be a fluke, while two is a trend. Rankings:
1. Minnetonka (12-0)
-While carnage unfolds beneath them, the Skippers simply plug along and rack up the quality wins, including a convincing one over previously unbeaten Maple Grove. They don’t have the explosive scoring power of Edina, but given the choice between that and the Skippers’ relentlessness, I’ll continue to ride this wave until given reason not to. The tests continue this week, as they face surging Benilde and a state title game rematch against some sputtering Greyhounds.
This week: Thurs vs. #14 Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Sat at #7 Duluth East
2. Andover (9-0-1)
-The Huskies enjoyed a frolic against a few lesser opponents while most of the rest of the state was beating up on itself. I have some reservations over putting a team that hasn’t beaten a top 20 opponent in regulation this high, but they are taking care of business while others are not. This week they’ve got two of their conference opponents that fall into the outside upset chance category, including one that gave them a one-goal game not too long ago.
This week: Thurs vs. Elk River, Sat at Centennial
3. Edina (9-1-1)
-The Hornets were rolling along until the Chaska setback. They have a frequent tendency to give up goals in bunches, and while the offensive skill can often cover for that, those questions that I’ve raised in recent seasons about the Hornets in tight games late still do not have good answers. They now head into a relative lull in their schedule before Lake Conference play begins.
This week: Thurs at Lakeville South, Sat vs. St. Louis Park
4. Maple Grove (8-1-1)
-The Crimson had a respectable showing in St. Louis Park, but the loss to Minnetonka shows they’re still a step behind the Skippers. They have the top-end talent to compete with anyone, but don’t have the experience of some of the other contenders. This week includes a section game and a visitor from up north.
This week: Thurs at Centennial, Sat vs. Grand Rapids
5. Eden Prairie (8-3-1)
-The Eagles took a rough loss to Chaska, but bounced back with a couple of solid wins to round out their Hockey for Life experience. They’ve had their down moments, but those have come against quality teams, and they have enough quality wins to emerge from an ugly muddle of teams to take this spot. We’ll see if it lasts.
This week: Sat at Blake
6. Rosemount (10-1)
-This feels aggressive, but the Irish just keep on winning, and we’re at the point where a single iffy loss can be forgiven as long as it’s backed up by quality results elsewhere, and the Chaska and Hermantown wins give them that. They’ll either back this up quickly with a good result against St. Thomas or go tumbling back out.
This week: Thurs at #13 St. Thomas Academy, Sat at Apple Valley
7. Duluth East (7-2-1)
-The Hounds did not have a happy trip to the north Metro, as they were upset by Champlin Park and tied Blaine, mustering just one goal in each. The lack of offensive output is a sign of how much they’ve adjusted to cover for a lack of experience in back; historically there have been plenty of East teams that have had similar plodding Decembers before coming to life down the stretch. This team will have to prove it can do the same thing, and a big upcoming weekend will be their chance to either start that or lapse further back into the pack.
This week: Fri vs. Stillwater, Sat vs. #1 Minnetonka
8. Blaine (5-2-2)
-A tie with Duluth East is another quality result against a good team for the Bengals, though they have yet to log a real quality win in spite of all of that. It’s back into conference play this week.
This week: Thurs vs. Anoka, Sat at Elk River
9. White Bear Lake (9-1-1)
-Didn’t exactly make a play a higher ranking with a narrow win over Grand Rapids, but they continue to plug along. The stakes get higher this week when they play another big section game.
This week: Thurs at Stillwater
10. Chaska (7-5)
-This week marks the tenth anniversary of my first set of rankings, and in all those years of doing this, I don’t think I’ve had a single ranking that’s a bigger ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ than this one. After looking highly questionable for much of the month, the Hawks came out in the Hockey for Life and took down two Lake teams, one convincingly, and also blitzed a Prior Lake team that has at least been competitive otherwise. Their ranking here goes between those two poles, though I’ve pushed it toward the high end based on momentum. Now we’ll see if they’ve legitimately turned a corner or if they’re just maddeningly inconsistent—though they are now done with the meat of their schedule, with Benilde as the only top 25 AA team left on it.
This week: Fri vs. Greenway, Sat vs. St. Cloud
11. Hill-Murray (8-2-1)
-The Cretin tie is a mild setback for the Pioneers, but nothing extreme. Their game with Benilde this week could be an interesting one.
This week: Sat at #14 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
12. Moorhead (7-5)
-The Spuds have had flashes of quality against some top teams, including good battles with the top three, but have yet to break through, and have also thrown up some clunkers, as in this week’s loss to Eden Prairie. Wins over Benilde and Stillwater keep them well-positioned overall here. Saturday’s contest with Wayzata will be instructive.
This week: Thurs at Rogers, Sat vs. #15 Wayzata
13. St. Thomas Academy (7-3-1)
-Gave up six in a loss to Edina and scraped out wins in their other two Hockey for Life games. For what is probably the first time since their move to AA, they head into a regular season section game as a lower-ranked team this week, and their second game isn’t a free pass either.
This week: Thurs vs. #6 Rosemount, Sat at Mahtomedi
14. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (9-3)
-The Red Knights are on a bit of a roll after a three-win showing in their tournament that included a valuable section win over Wayzata. In traditional Benilde fashion they’re showing they can score plenty, though also give up a few goals when facing quality competition. The schedule doesn’t let up here, as they take on #1 and another ranked rival.
This week: Thurs at #1 Minnetonka, Sat vs. #11 Hill-Murray
15. Wayzata (7-3-2)
-The Trojan roller coaster is back in full force following a loss to Benilde and a tie against a Holy Family team they’d previously beaten, plus the loss of one of their better offensive weapons. They head up I-94 this week for a chance to restore some order.
This week: Fri at Alexandria, Sat at #12 Moorhead
The Next Ten
Stillwater (7-2)
-After playing some respectable competition, the Ponies are who we thought they were: good enough to compete with some quality teams, but still not quite in the top tier. A huge week awaits them, as they host White Bear in a 4AA battle and then swing north for Duluth East and Cloquet.
Eagan (7-3)
-The Cats were sailing along until a clunker against Hastings in the South St. Paul Premier Tournament’s title game. As I noted last week, they can look great when they’re rolling offensively, but also seem capable of throwing up ugly results at any moment. This week’s games against Eastview and Lakeville South are the sort they need to take care of convincingly to be a top 15 contender.
Cretin-Derham Hall (4-4-1)
-Baby steps for the Raiders in the Schwan Cup, as they beat the teams they should have beaten and got a decent tie against Hill. They now dive into conference play, where they really should go on a run.
Blake (6-3)
-Have a win over Holy Family and no bad losses, so they stick around here. Breck and Eden Prairie await this week.
Lakeville South (5-4)
-Both Lakevilles are very similar right now, with best wins coming against teams somewhere in the 20s and a lot of losses to good teams. South’s have been somewhat more competitive, so they get the nod for the higher ranking. A tough week looms with Edina and Eagan coming up.
Lakeville North (6-5)
-Got a needed win over Prior Lake, but fell to Stillwater and Eden Prairie, so it’s more of the same for the Panthers. Just one game this week, but it has some section implications as they face Farmington.
Roseau (8-2-1)
-Rolled through their holiday tournament to keep up the momentum. They’ll look to stay undefeated in the section when they host Brainerd on Friday.
Champlin Park (4-3)
-One win does not a season make, but two of the Rebels’ losses are to top five teams, and the East win counteracts a not-awful loss to Totino. They’ve taken care of everyone else, and for now, I’m more inclined to reward that than a lot of the teams scuffling about with mediocre records just behind them. They’re in the softer division of the Northwest Suburban and are done with all of their games against currently ranked teams save Blaine, so they have a chance to go on a real run now; if they don’t, they’ll drop out.
Hastings (8-2)
-Like Champlin, the Raiders have one quality win that helps make up for a bad loss, an acceptable loss to Mahtomedi, and then a whole heap of wins against weaker teams. Are they actually better than a Cloquet or a Brainerd? I’m skeptical, as are the better computerized rankings out there. But at this point in the season, they deserve some recognition for what they’ve achieved. Owatonna is their only game this week.
Holy Family (5-6-1)
-A tie to Wayzata saves the Fire’s place in the rankings for now. They’ve been competitive in all of their losses save the Edina game and have killed their weaker competition, but have yet to beat a AA team all season. They have a chance to fix that against Grand Rapids this week.
Sections:
1AA
24 Hastings
20 Lakeville South
21 Lakeville North
Rochester Century
-This section got a whole lot more interesting in the past two weeks. Hastings, with its win over Eagan who beat Lakeville North, now has a legitimate transitive argument for the top seed, and the coaches in this section have traditionally been willing to reward southern teams with strong records, even if something like PageStat may not think much of their overall body of work. Rochester Mayo and Century, who meet Thursday, have just one loss between them; while neither has anything resembling a quality win and each has a blemish (Century with a loss to Duluth Marshall, and Mayo with ties to Anoka and Mankato West), that’s worth keeping an eye on. South and North, meanwhile, could use some quality results against those tougher schedules.
2AA
1 Minnetonka
10 Chaska
5 Eden Prairie
25 Holy Family
-After the obvious #1, this one is starting to take shape. Chaska’s big win over Eden Prairie is huge in seeding, especially if the Prior Lake experience last season is any guide; despite a mediocre overall ranking, the coaches valued that head-to-head win, which has to be good news for the Hawks. Holy Family and Prior Lake may well wind up battling for home ice in the 4/5 game in their February meeting.
3AA
6 Rosemount
13 St. Thomas Academy
17 Eagan
Burnsville
-Not many games of note have happened here yet, but that all changes in the next two weeks, as Rosemount visits St. Thomas and Eagan on consecutive Thursdays. We’ll learn quickly how real the Irish are, and get some seeding clarity as well. Burnsville only has two wins, but they are over Eagan and Eastview, so that still has the Blaze in contention for a top four seed.
4AA
9 White Bear Lake
11 Hill-Murray
16 Stillwater
Irondale
-White Bear got the all-important win over Hill, which makes it hard to see the Pioneers having a shot at the top seed in a three-team race. The first White Bear-Stillwater meeting is on Thursday, and the winner will be on track for the top seed, pending the second meeting in early February. With a win over Tartan, Irondale is in good shape for the 4-seed.
5AA
4 Maple Grove
8 Blaine
23 Champlin Park
Centennial
-Everything makes sense here so far based on initial results, with Maple Grove beating Blaine and Blaine beating Centennial. Maple Grove plays Centennial this coming week to wrap up the first round of games between the traditional big three, though Centennial has had enough struggles against other teams that they probably need to beat the Crimson twice for any shot at a higher seed. Champlin edges ahead of Centennial for now based on a transitive argument involving Duluth East, but will get cracks at both Blaine and the Cougars in February.
6AA
3 Edina
14 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
15 Wayzata
19 Cretin-Derham Hall
20 Blake
-Benilde’s win over Wayzata and Wayzata’s win over Cretin may have those three locked in order relative to one another, though if Wayzata can do anything against Edina in Lake play, that could throw a wrench in things. Blake also still has a chance to make a move, as they face the two Lake teams and Cretin down the stretch.
7AA
2 Andover
7 Duluth East
Cloquet
Elk River
-Under the more traditional seeding format, this would be pretty straightforward right now, if not basically locked in; under QRF, it may take a bit longer to make any sense, as Cloquet has a long way to climb to make up for many of their early losses. Still, the rest of the section is mediocre enough that they could pull it off, and they’ve had no shortage of moments where they’ve been ever so close. Elk River is the best of a muddy rest.
8AA
22 Roseau
12 Moorhead
Brainerd
St. Michael-Albertville
-Brainerd got a useful win over Buffalo in their holiday tournament; those two will turn around and play again this coming week, and Brainerd will collide with Roseau as well as they look to dislodge the undefeated-in-section Rams. Buffalo and St. Michael-Albertville have the first of two meetings on the 10th, which could help decide the 4-seed.
1. Minnetonka (12-0)
-While carnage unfolds beneath them, the Skippers simply plug along and rack up the quality wins, including a convincing one over previously unbeaten Maple Grove. They don’t have the explosive scoring power of Edina, but given the choice between that and the Skippers’ relentlessness, I’ll continue to ride this wave until given reason not to. The tests continue this week, as they face surging Benilde and a state title game rematch against some sputtering Greyhounds.
This week: Thurs vs. #14 Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Sat at #7 Duluth East
2. Andover (9-0-1)
-The Huskies enjoyed a frolic against a few lesser opponents while most of the rest of the state was beating up on itself. I have some reservations over putting a team that hasn’t beaten a top 20 opponent in regulation this high, but they are taking care of business while others are not. This week they’ve got two of their conference opponents that fall into the outside upset chance category, including one that gave them a one-goal game not too long ago.
This week: Thurs vs. Elk River, Sat at Centennial
3. Edina (9-1-1)
-The Hornets were rolling along until the Chaska setback. They have a frequent tendency to give up goals in bunches, and while the offensive skill can often cover for that, those questions that I’ve raised in recent seasons about the Hornets in tight games late still do not have good answers. They now head into a relative lull in their schedule before Lake Conference play begins.
This week: Thurs at Lakeville South, Sat vs. St. Louis Park
4. Maple Grove (8-1-1)
-The Crimson had a respectable showing in St. Louis Park, but the loss to Minnetonka shows they’re still a step behind the Skippers. They have the top-end talent to compete with anyone, but don’t have the experience of some of the other contenders. This week includes a section game and a visitor from up north.
This week: Thurs at Centennial, Sat vs. Grand Rapids
5. Eden Prairie (8-3-1)
-The Eagles took a rough loss to Chaska, but bounced back with a couple of solid wins to round out their Hockey for Life experience. They’ve had their down moments, but those have come against quality teams, and they have enough quality wins to emerge from an ugly muddle of teams to take this spot. We’ll see if it lasts.
This week: Sat at Blake
6. Rosemount (10-1)
-This feels aggressive, but the Irish just keep on winning, and we’re at the point where a single iffy loss can be forgiven as long as it’s backed up by quality results elsewhere, and the Chaska and Hermantown wins give them that. They’ll either back this up quickly with a good result against St. Thomas or go tumbling back out.
This week: Thurs at #13 St. Thomas Academy, Sat at Apple Valley
7. Duluth East (7-2-1)
-The Hounds did not have a happy trip to the north Metro, as they were upset by Champlin Park and tied Blaine, mustering just one goal in each. The lack of offensive output is a sign of how much they’ve adjusted to cover for a lack of experience in back; historically there have been plenty of East teams that have had similar plodding Decembers before coming to life down the stretch. This team will have to prove it can do the same thing, and a big upcoming weekend will be their chance to either start that or lapse further back into the pack.
This week: Fri vs. Stillwater, Sat vs. #1 Minnetonka
8. Blaine (5-2-2)
-A tie with Duluth East is another quality result against a good team for the Bengals, though they have yet to log a real quality win in spite of all of that. It’s back into conference play this week.
This week: Thurs vs. Anoka, Sat at Elk River
9. White Bear Lake (9-1-1)
-Didn’t exactly make a play a higher ranking with a narrow win over Grand Rapids, but they continue to plug along. The stakes get higher this week when they play another big section game.
This week: Thurs at Stillwater
10. Chaska (7-5)
-This week marks the tenth anniversary of my first set of rankings, and in all those years of doing this, I don’t think I’ve had a single ranking that’s a bigger ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ than this one. After looking highly questionable for much of the month, the Hawks came out in the Hockey for Life and took down two Lake teams, one convincingly, and also blitzed a Prior Lake team that has at least been competitive otherwise. Their ranking here goes between those two poles, though I’ve pushed it toward the high end based on momentum. Now we’ll see if they’ve legitimately turned a corner or if they’re just maddeningly inconsistent—though they are now done with the meat of their schedule, with Benilde as the only top 25 AA team left on it.
This week: Fri vs. Greenway, Sat vs. St. Cloud
11. Hill-Murray (8-2-1)
-The Cretin tie is a mild setback for the Pioneers, but nothing extreme. Their game with Benilde this week could be an interesting one.
This week: Sat at #14 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
12. Moorhead (7-5)
-The Spuds have had flashes of quality against some top teams, including good battles with the top three, but have yet to break through, and have also thrown up some clunkers, as in this week’s loss to Eden Prairie. Wins over Benilde and Stillwater keep them well-positioned overall here. Saturday’s contest with Wayzata will be instructive.
This week: Thurs at Rogers, Sat vs. #15 Wayzata
13. St. Thomas Academy (7-3-1)
-Gave up six in a loss to Edina and scraped out wins in their other two Hockey for Life games. For what is probably the first time since their move to AA, they head into a regular season section game as a lower-ranked team this week, and their second game isn’t a free pass either.
This week: Thurs vs. #6 Rosemount, Sat at Mahtomedi
14. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (9-3)
-The Red Knights are on a bit of a roll after a three-win showing in their tournament that included a valuable section win over Wayzata. In traditional Benilde fashion they’re showing they can score plenty, though also give up a few goals when facing quality competition. The schedule doesn’t let up here, as they take on #1 and another ranked rival.
This week: Thurs at #1 Minnetonka, Sat vs. #11 Hill-Murray
15. Wayzata (7-3-2)
-The Trojan roller coaster is back in full force following a loss to Benilde and a tie against a Holy Family team they’d previously beaten, plus the loss of one of their better offensive weapons. They head up I-94 this week for a chance to restore some order.
This week: Fri at Alexandria, Sat at #12 Moorhead
The Next Ten
Stillwater (7-2)
-After playing some respectable competition, the Ponies are who we thought they were: good enough to compete with some quality teams, but still not quite in the top tier. A huge week awaits them, as they host White Bear in a 4AA battle and then swing north for Duluth East and Cloquet.
Eagan (7-3)
-The Cats were sailing along until a clunker against Hastings in the South St. Paul Premier Tournament’s title game. As I noted last week, they can look great when they’re rolling offensively, but also seem capable of throwing up ugly results at any moment. This week’s games against Eastview and Lakeville South are the sort they need to take care of convincingly to be a top 15 contender.
Cretin-Derham Hall (4-4-1)
-Baby steps for the Raiders in the Schwan Cup, as they beat the teams they should have beaten and got a decent tie against Hill. They now dive into conference play, where they really should go on a run.
Blake (6-3)
-Have a win over Holy Family and no bad losses, so they stick around here. Breck and Eden Prairie await this week.
Lakeville South (5-4)
-Both Lakevilles are very similar right now, with best wins coming against teams somewhere in the 20s and a lot of losses to good teams. South’s have been somewhat more competitive, so they get the nod for the higher ranking. A tough week looms with Edina and Eagan coming up.
Lakeville North (6-5)
-Got a needed win over Prior Lake, but fell to Stillwater and Eden Prairie, so it’s more of the same for the Panthers. Just one game this week, but it has some section implications as they face Farmington.
Roseau (8-2-1)
-Rolled through their holiday tournament to keep up the momentum. They’ll look to stay undefeated in the section when they host Brainerd on Friday.
Champlin Park (4-3)
-One win does not a season make, but two of the Rebels’ losses are to top five teams, and the East win counteracts a not-awful loss to Totino. They’ve taken care of everyone else, and for now, I’m more inclined to reward that than a lot of the teams scuffling about with mediocre records just behind them. They’re in the softer division of the Northwest Suburban and are done with all of their games against currently ranked teams save Blaine, so they have a chance to go on a real run now; if they don’t, they’ll drop out.
Hastings (8-2)
-Like Champlin, the Raiders have one quality win that helps make up for a bad loss, an acceptable loss to Mahtomedi, and then a whole heap of wins against weaker teams. Are they actually better than a Cloquet or a Brainerd? I’m skeptical, as are the better computerized rankings out there. But at this point in the season, they deserve some recognition for what they’ve achieved. Owatonna is their only game this week.
Holy Family (5-6-1)
-A tie to Wayzata saves the Fire’s place in the rankings for now. They’ve been competitive in all of their losses save the Edina game and have killed their weaker competition, but have yet to beat a AA team all season. They have a chance to fix that against Grand Rapids this week.
Sections:
1AA
24 Hastings
20 Lakeville South
21 Lakeville North
Rochester Century
-This section got a whole lot more interesting in the past two weeks. Hastings, with its win over Eagan who beat Lakeville North, now has a legitimate transitive argument for the top seed, and the coaches in this section have traditionally been willing to reward southern teams with strong records, even if something like PageStat may not think much of their overall body of work. Rochester Mayo and Century, who meet Thursday, have just one loss between them; while neither has anything resembling a quality win and each has a blemish (Century with a loss to Duluth Marshall, and Mayo with ties to Anoka and Mankato West), that’s worth keeping an eye on. South and North, meanwhile, could use some quality results against those tougher schedules.
2AA
1 Minnetonka
10 Chaska
5 Eden Prairie
25 Holy Family
-After the obvious #1, this one is starting to take shape. Chaska’s big win over Eden Prairie is huge in seeding, especially if the Prior Lake experience last season is any guide; despite a mediocre overall ranking, the coaches valued that head-to-head win, which has to be good news for the Hawks. Holy Family and Prior Lake may well wind up battling for home ice in the 4/5 game in their February meeting.
3AA
6 Rosemount
13 St. Thomas Academy
17 Eagan
Burnsville
-Not many games of note have happened here yet, but that all changes in the next two weeks, as Rosemount visits St. Thomas and Eagan on consecutive Thursdays. We’ll learn quickly how real the Irish are, and get some seeding clarity as well. Burnsville only has two wins, but they are over Eagan and Eastview, so that still has the Blaze in contention for a top four seed.
4AA
9 White Bear Lake
11 Hill-Murray
16 Stillwater
Irondale
-White Bear got the all-important win over Hill, which makes it hard to see the Pioneers having a shot at the top seed in a three-team race. The first White Bear-Stillwater meeting is on Thursday, and the winner will be on track for the top seed, pending the second meeting in early February. With a win over Tartan, Irondale is in good shape for the 4-seed.
5AA
4 Maple Grove
8 Blaine
23 Champlin Park
Centennial
-Everything makes sense here so far based on initial results, with Maple Grove beating Blaine and Blaine beating Centennial. Maple Grove plays Centennial this coming week to wrap up the first round of games between the traditional big three, though Centennial has had enough struggles against other teams that they probably need to beat the Crimson twice for any shot at a higher seed. Champlin edges ahead of Centennial for now based on a transitive argument involving Duluth East, but will get cracks at both Blaine and the Cougars in February.
6AA
3 Edina
14 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
15 Wayzata
19 Cretin-Derham Hall
20 Blake
-Benilde’s win over Wayzata and Wayzata’s win over Cretin may have those three locked in order relative to one another, though if Wayzata can do anything against Edina in Lake play, that could throw a wrench in things. Blake also still has a chance to make a move, as they face the two Lake teams and Cretin down the stretch.
7AA
2 Andover
7 Duluth East
Cloquet
Elk River
-Under the more traditional seeding format, this would be pretty straightforward right now, if not basically locked in; under QRF, it may take a bit longer to make any sense, as Cloquet has a long way to climb to make up for many of their early losses. Still, the rest of the section is mediocre enough that they could pull it off, and they’ve had no shortage of moments where they’ve been ever so close. Elk River is the best of a muddy rest.
8AA
22 Roseau
12 Moorhead
Brainerd
St. Michael-Albertville
-Brainerd got a useful win over Buffalo in their holiday tournament; those two will turn around and play again this coming week, and Brainerd will collide with Roseau as well as they look to dislodge the undefeated-in-section Rams. Buffalo and St. Michael-Albertville have the first of two meetings on the 10th, which could help decide the 4-seed.