AA Rankings for 1/13/18
Posted: Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:53 am
We’ve reached mid-January, Lake Conference play is kicking off, and some teams have less than ten games left in their regular seasons: we’re into the stretch run. Your rankings:
1. Minnetonka (15-0-1)
-Still unbeaten, but not unblemished: the Skippers coughed up a 3-goal lead in Hermantown, meaning it was their first game in which they’ve given up three goals or failed to beat their opponent. They aren’t invincible; even the win over White Bear was a sign of things to come, as they nearly gave away another 3-goal lead. They are, however, still #1, as I think their overall body of work and quality of wins are superior to Andover’s. Fortunately, we’ll be able to settle that debate on Saturday, albeit with the elements potentially playing a role. But first, they’ll have to bounce back against an Eden Prairie team that is certainly capable of causing them some problems. The closing weeks of their schedule are a meat grinder.
This week: Thurs at #7 Eden Prairie, Hockey Day Sat vs. #2 Andover
2. Andover (14-0-1)
-The Huskies are hanging right there with Minnetonka, and with their two games earlier in the week unlikely to pose major challenges, we have ourselves a 1-vs.-2 match-up on Hockey Day. Is this team on even footing with their fellow undefeated team, or merely the best of the rest with a weaker schedule?
This week: Tues vs. St. Cloud, Thurs at Anoka, Hockey Day Sat vs. #1 Minnetonka
3. Edina (12-1-1)
-The Hornets got their offense rolling late against Blake and marched on to another win. They’ve got an interesting home-and-home with Hill up this coming weekend, which isn’t something I can recall ever seeing high school teams do.
This weekend: Fri at #X Hill-Murray, Sat vs. #X Hill-Murray
4. Maple Grove (11-2-1)
-The Crimson couldn’t get much through against Andover, but with a loss to an undefeated team and no one making any moves behind them, they don’t drop. They continue their homestand this week and collide with surging Blaine for the second time.
This week: Thurs vs. Elk River, Sat vs. #5 Blaine
5. Blaine (8-2-2)
-An emphatic win over Holy Family nudges the Bengals up a spot, and sets up a huge contest with Maple Grove this week, plus a Centennial team that gave them a serious test a month ago. They’ve been rolling the past two weeks, but their opponents this week could tell us how real that is.
This week: Thurs at Centennial, Sat at #4 Maple Grove
6. Duluth East (10-3-2)
-For a week with no losses it was an adventurous one for the Hounds, as they needed overtime to get by Denfeld and spotted Grand Rapids an early lead before lurching to life. They wrapped up the week with a tie in an even game with Eden Prairie, though, so the ability to go stride-for-stride with the best isn’t in question, even if their ability to finish off competition in lower tiers is. They get two such teams this week as they embark on their annual 8AA odyssey.
This week: Fri at Brainerd, Sat at Moorhead
7. Eden Prairie (9-4-2)
-The Eagles bounced back from their Blake loss with a respectable swing northward, as they took care of Cloquet and fought to a tie with Duluth East. Their forward corps is one of the best in the state, if not the best; if they can show enough improvement on the back end, they’ll be right up there with the best. They now head straight into the Lake Conference gauntlet, as they get to try their luck against the top-ranked Skippers and a Wayzata defense.
This week: Thurs vs. #1 Minnetonka, Sat at #11 Wayzata
8. St. Thomas Academy (11-3-1)
-The Cadets logged twin 3-0 wins over Cretin and Hastings, and they’ve allowed just three goals in their past five. That level of defensive discipline has not really been the staple of the Vannelli era, whose days are now numbered; if they can continue to lock down, this team may have the ability to achieve things their past AA editions have not. They are now into the soft stretch in their schedule.
This week: Tues vs. Tartan, Sat at North St. Paul
9. White Bear Lake (12-2-1)
-Not much shame for the Bears in their loss to Minnetonka, as they fought back to make it a one-goal affair, but they followed that up with a very shaky win over Woodbury. They’re now into their second lap through the Suburban East, and will look to replicate their tight early win over Cretin.
This week: Thurs at Forest Lake, Sat vs. Cretin-Derham Hall
10. Chaska (10-5)
-Slaughtered St. Louis Park, which is no great surprise. They have another one-game week ahead of them, and it’s an intriguing one that will decide the frontrunner in the Metro West.
This week: Sat vs. #14 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
11. Wayzata (9-4-2)
-The Trojans seemed to have flushed whatever was ailing them a week and a half ago out of their system, and steamrolled respectable Eastview in their only game last week. We’ll see if they can continue to play that way in Lake Conference action.
This week: Thurs vs. Holy Angels, Sat vs. #7 Eden Prairie
12. Rosemount (12-3)
-The Irish took a tumble against Eagan, but bounced back with a big win over Lakeville North. They are into an easier stretch in an easy schedule now, though nothing in this conference seems totally assured.
This week: Tues vs. Farmington, Sat vs. Eastview
13. Hill-Murray (9-3-2)
-The Pioneers are puttering along. They got an important win over Stillwater on Thursday, which should give them the 2-seed in 4AA. They couldn’t finish off Mahtomedi, though, and still don’t have much on their résumé that inspires major confidence outside of the St. Thomas win. We’ll see if they can manage anything in their Edina games.
This week: Fri vs. #3 Edina, Sat at #3 Edina
14. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (10-5)
-A loss to Bloomington Jefferson sets the Red Knights back a few spots. The Chaska game this week could be instructive, and Lakeville North isn’t a free win, either.
This week: Thurs vs. Lakeville North, Sat at #10 Chaska
15. Roseau (11-2-1)
-Filling this spot is once again a bit of a shrug. The Rams have rattled off ten straight wins now, and while Moorhead is the only top 25 AA team they’ve met over that stretch, they’ve got the front-end talent and the defensive discipline to win a section, and have allowed just five goals in their past seven games. They’ve got a tough East Grand Forks team this week before a two-week push that will include most of their rivals for the section crown.
This week: Tues vs. East Grand Forks
Blake (9-5)
-The Bears lost to two top three teams this past week and didn’t play terribly, staying within two against Andover and hanging in there with Edina well into the third before the wheels fell off some. This is a reasonably good team but still seems like it might be a year away. Two middling opponents this week, Burnsville and STMA, give them a chance to beef up their record.
Moorhead (9-6-1)
-The Spuds tied suddenly dangerous Bloomington Jefferson; time will tell how much we judge that Jaguar surge, but on the whole this team is leaving enough question marks that it drops from the top 15. They get a chance to avenge their section final loss from a season ago to St. Michael-Albertville this week ahead of a home game against Duluth East.
Cretin-Derham Hall (7-5-1)
-The Raiders were shut down by St. Thomas, and even the win over Park seemed closer than it should have been. For whatever reason, this team is not on track to keep up with the preseason hype. The week ahead could be telling, as they face the other two ranked teams in their conference, Stillwater and White Bear Lake.
Lakeville South (7-6)
-A defeat at the hands of Eastview was the Coguars’ first real negative result on the season, but they bounced back with a shellacking of Prior Lake. They can solidify their case for a high seed in sections when they face crosstown rival North this week.
Cloquet (6-9)
-The Lumberjacks didn’t do much to move the needle this past week, as they took their time in putting away Duluth Marshall and stuck around with Eden Prairie but couldn’t really break through. On paper they should be able to go on a bit of a roll now, but few of their opponents are completely safe games. Grand Rapids is up first this week in a big section battle, followed by Duluth Denfeld.
Stillwater (8-6)
-Got back in the W column in a good showing against East Ridge, and once again hung around with a top team in 4AA; they are within striking distance of White Bear and Hill, despite the inability to break through so far.
Hastings (11-3)
-The Raiders’ 3-0 loss to St. Thomas, while not exactly scintillating, does little to suggest they don’t belong somewhere in this range; they can at least hang in there against a quality win. They should be favored in every game they play for the rest of the season except for a February meeting with Hill. Their only contest this week is at Henry Sibley.
Eagan (9-5)
-This team continues to throw up head-scratchers, as they bounced back from their ugly string of losses with a 5-1 win over Rosemount. Time will tell if they can play with the consistency their talent level should allow for. They have a chance to avenge an early loss to Burnsville this week.
Lakeville North (8-6)
-Mounted a decent comeback against Rosemount but came up short. A busy week ahead is big for this team, including games with rival South, Benilde, and respectable Prior Lake.
Bloomington Jefferson (8-5-1)
-With wins over Benilde and Cloquet and a tie to Moorhead, there is now enough good on the Jags’ record to outweigh the bad—namely, a lopsided loss to Burnsville and another loss to Eastview. Three of their five losses are to section opponents, which is bad news for seeding, but they’re showing they can compete with some good teams, and if they keep up the momentum, they could be an interesting team to watch down the stretch. Apple Valley and Woodbury are up this week.
Sections
1AA
22 Hastings
19 Lakeville South
24 Lakeville North
Rochester Century
-No real shifts here from two weeks ago, with Hastings giving us no reason to drop from the top slot. The first of the two battles of Lakeville takes place on Tuesday, and South also has respectable Farmington the following week. Century tightened its grip on a top-4 seed with a win over Mayo and could have a claim to a higher seed given its record, but it could be hard to justify given the lack of common opponents and a couple of losses that are clearly worse than anything the Lakevilles have suffered.
2AA
1 Minnetonka
10 Chaska
7 Eden Prairie
Holy Family
-Nothing has changed here in the past two weeks, and nothing is really likely to unless Eden Prairie somehow beats Minnetonka twice in Lake play. Holy Family (the first team out of the top 25 this week) and Prior Lake play in February to decide the 4-seed.
3AA
8 St. Thomas Academy
12 Rosemount
23 Eagan
Eastview
Burnsville
25 Bloomington Jefferson
-Lots of interesting movement in this deep section. St. Thomas’s win over Rosemount coupled with the Irish’s loss to Eagan should settle the top seed. I still have Rosemount at #2 despite the Eagan loss due to the Wildcats’ losses to Burnsville and Eastview. Surging Eastview now has a split with Eagan, which is enough for 4-seed positioning right now. Jefferson is intriguing after recent strong results, but with a loss to Burnsville and only St. Thomas left as a section opponent, they may go no higher than the 6-seed.
4AA
9 White Bear Lake
13 Hill-Murray
21 Stillwater
Irondale
-The top three here are probably locked in now; even if Stillwater beats the Bears the second time around, I think they’ll have to choke away another section game or two to lose the top seed. Irondale, with a decent record and no section games left, remains the best candidate for the 4-seed, though Woodbury showed it could climb into the picture after giving White Bear a good run this past week.
5AA
4 Maple Grove
5 Blaine
Champlin Park
Centennial
-The Maple Grove-Blaine rematch lurks this week. If the Crimson win, this is easy; if Blaine wins, every game could matter down the stretch for the top seed. Champlin, which tumbles from the top 25 following a loss to Chanhassen, would still seem to be the slight favorite for the 3-seed, but we’ll have a game in February to settle that more definitively.
6AA
3 Edina
14 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
11 Wayzata
16 Blake
18 Cretin-Derham Hall
-Not much moving here, and the Blake-Wayzata game next week is the only upcoming contest of interest before the Edina-Wayzata Lake meetings. Benilde is done with competitive section opponents, so unless they really go in the tank or Wayzata does something against Edina, the Red Knights are in good shape for the 2-seed.
7AA
2 Andover
6 Duluth East
20 Cloquet
Elk River
-The top two seem obvious at this point, using both QRF and the old method. Beyond that there’s a four-team muddle, and we’ll see what the computer spits out. Cloquet, with an easier schedule the rest of the way, should control its own destiny, while Forest Lake and Elk River should also win more than they lose down the stretch. That could leave Grand Rapids in a tough spot QRF-wise, and tiebreakers could end up playing a big role if it stays tight; this is why I have the Elks at #4 right now. Rapids and Cloquet have the first of their two meetings this week, which could be key that tiebreaker.
8AA
15 Roseau
17 Moorhead
Brainerd
Bemidji
-Roseau continues to take care of business in the section, and with the Moorhead rematch and games with STMA and St. Cloud looming week after next, they could have the top seed locked up by the next time I do this. The next two are clear enough right now, based both on head-to-head results and overall body of work. Bemidji tied St. Michael-Albertville this past week, and as they’ve beaten Buffalo while Buffalo beat STMA, that’s good enough for 4-seed positioning. The Lumberjacks only have Roseau and Moorhead left in section play, so they might just be safe for a first round home game.
1. Minnetonka (15-0-1)
-Still unbeaten, but not unblemished: the Skippers coughed up a 3-goal lead in Hermantown, meaning it was their first game in which they’ve given up three goals or failed to beat their opponent. They aren’t invincible; even the win over White Bear was a sign of things to come, as they nearly gave away another 3-goal lead. They are, however, still #1, as I think their overall body of work and quality of wins are superior to Andover’s. Fortunately, we’ll be able to settle that debate on Saturday, albeit with the elements potentially playing a role. But first, they’ll have to bounce back against an Eden Prairie team that is certainly capable of causing them some problems. The closing weeks of their schedule are a meat grinder.
This week: Thurs at #7 Eden Prairie, Hockey Day Sat vs. #2 Andover
2. Andover (14-0-1)
-The Huskies are hanging right there with Minnetonka, and with their two games earlier in the week unlikely to pose major challenges, we have ourselves a 1-vs.-2 match-up on Hockey Day. Is this team on even footing with their fellow undefeated team, or merely the best of the rest with a weaker schedule?
This week: Tues vs. St. Cloud, Thurs at Anoka, Hockey Day Sat vs. #1 Minnetonka
3. Edina (12-1-1)
-The Hornets got their offense rolling late against Blake and marched on to another win. They’ve got an interesting home-and-home with Hill up this coming weekend, which isn’t something I can recall ever seeing high school teams do.
This weekend: Fri at #X Hill-Murray, Sat vs. #X Hill-Murray
4. Maple Grove (11-2-1)
-The Crimson couldn’t get much through against Andover, but with a loss to an undefeated team and no one making any moves behind them, they don’t drop. They continue their homestand this week and collide with surging Blaine for the second time.
This week: Thurs vs. Elk River, Sat vs. #5 Blaine
5. Blaine (8-2-2)
-An emphatic win over Holy Family nudges the Bengals up a spot, and sets up a huge contest with Maple Grove this week, plus a Centennial team that gave them a serious test a month ago. They’ve been rolling the past two weeks, but their opponents this week could tell us how real that is.
This week: Thurs at Centennial, Sat at #4 Maple Grove
6. Duluth East (10-3-2)
-For a week with no losses it was an adventurous one for the Hounds, as they needed overtime to get by Denfeld and spotted Grand Rapids an early lead before lurching to life. They wrapped up the week with a tie in an even game with Eden Prairie, though, so the ability to go stride-for-stride with the best isn’t in question, even if their ability to finish off competition in lower tiers is. They get two such teams this week as they embark on their annual 8AA odyssey.
This week: Fri at Brainerd, Sat at Moorhead
7. Eden Prairie (9-4-2)
-The Eagles bounced back from their Blake loss with a respectable swing northward, as they took care of Cloquet and fought to a tie with Duluth East. Their forward corps is one of the best in the state, if not the best; if they can show enough improvement on the back end, they’ll be right up there with the best. They now head straight into the Lake Conference gauntlet, as they get to try their luck against the top-ranked Skippers and a Wayzata defense.
This week: Thurs vs. #1 Minnetonka, Sat at #11 Wayzata
8. St. Thomas Academy (11-3-1)
-The Cadets logged twin 3-0 wins over Cretin and Hastings, and they’ve allowed just three goals in their past five. That level of defensive discipline has not really been the staple of the Vannelli era, whose days are now numbered; if they can continue to lock down, this team may have the ability to achieve things their past AA editions have not. They are now into the soft stretch in their schedule.
This week: Tues vs. Tartan, Sat at North St. Paul
9. White Bear Lake (12-2-1)
-Not much shame for the Bears in their loss to Minnetonka, as they fought back to make it a one-goal affair, but they followed that up with a very shaky win over Woodbury. They’re now into their second lap through the Suburban East, and will look to replicate their tight early win over Cretin.
This week: Thurs at Forest Lake, Sat vs. Cretin-Derham Hall
10. Chaska (10-5)
-Slaughtered St. Louis Park, which is no great surprise. They have another one-game week ahead of them, and it’s an intriguing one that will decide the frontrunner in the Metro West.
This week: Sat vs. #14 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
11. Wayzata (9-4-2)
-The Trojans seemed to have flushed whatever was ailing them a week and a half ago out of their system, and steamrolled respectable Eastview in their only game last week. We’ll see if they can continue to play that way in Lake Conference action.
This week: Thurs vs. Holy Angels, Sat vs. #7 Eden Prairie
12. Rosemount (12-3)
-The Irish took a tumble against Eagan, but bounced back with a big win over Lakeville North. They are into an easier stretch in an easy schedule now, though nothing in this conference seems totally assured.
This week: Tues vs. Farmington, Sat vs. Eastview
13. Hill-Murray (9-3-2)
-The Pioneers are puttering along. They got an important win over Stillwater on Thursday, which should give them the 2-seed in 4AA. They couldn’t finish off Mahtomedi, though, and still don’t have much on their résumé that inspires major confidence outside of the St. Thomas win. We’ll see if they can manage anything in their Edina games.
This week: Fri vs. #3 Edina, Sat at #3 Edina
14. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (10-5)
-A loss to Bloomington Jefferson sets the Red Knights back a few spots. The Chaska game this week could be instructive, and Lakeville North isn’t a free win, either.
This week: Thurs vs. Lakeville North, Sat at #10 Chaska
15. Roseau (11-2-1)
-Filling this spot is once again a bit of a shrug. The Rams have rattled off ten straight wins now, and while Moorhead is the only top 25 AA team they’ve met over that stretch, they’ve got the front-end talent and the defensive discipline to win a section, and have allowed just five goals in their past seven games. They’ve got a tough East Grand Forks team this week before a two-week push that will include most of their rivals for the section crown.
This week: Tues vs. East Grand Forks
Blake (9-5)
-The Bears lost to two top three teams this past week and didn’t play terribly, staying within two against Andover and hanging in there with Edina well into the third before the wheels fell off some. This is a reasonably good team but still seems like it might be a year away. Two middling opponents this week, Burnsville and STMA, give them a chance to beef up their record.
Moorhead (9-6-1)
-The Spuds tied suddenly dangerous Bloomington Jefferson; time will tell how much we judge that Jaguar surge, but on the whole this team is leaving enough question marks that it drops from the top 15. They get a chance to avenge their section final loss from a season ago to St. Michael-Albertville this week ahead of a home game against Duluth East.
Cretin-Derham Hall (7-5-1)
-The Raiders were shut down by St. Thomas, and even the win over Park seemed closer than it should have been. For whatever reason, this team is not on track to keep up with the preseason hype. The week ahead could be telling, as they face the other two ranked teams in their conference, Stillwater and White Bear Lake.
Lakeville South (7-6)
-A defeat at the hands of Eastview was the Coguars’ first real negative result on the season, but they bounced back with a shellacking of Prior Lake. They can solidify their case for a high seed in sections when they face crosstown rival North this week.
Cloquet (6-9)
-The Lumberjacks didn’t do much to move the needle this past week, as they took their time in putting away Duluth Marshall and stuck around with Eden Prairie but couldn’t really break through. On paper they should be able to go on a bit of a roll now, but few of their opponents are completely safe games. Grand Rapids is up first this week in a big section battle, followed by Duluth Denfeld.
Stillwater (8-6)
-Got back in the W column in a good showing against East Ridge, and once again hung around with a top team in 4AA; they are within striking distance of White Bear and Hill, despite the inability to break through so far.
Hastings (11-3)
-The Raiders’ 3-0 loss to St. Thomas, while not exactly scintillating, does little to suggest they don’t belong somewhere in this range; they can at least hang in there against a quality win. They should be favored in every game they play for the rest of the season except for a February meeting with Hill. Their only contest this week is at Henry Sibley.
Eagan (9-5)
-This team continues to throw up head-scratchers, as they bounced back from their ugly string of losses with a 5-1 win over Rosemount. Time will tell if they can play with the consistency their talent level should allow for. They have a chance to avenge an early loss to Burnsville this week.
Lakeville North (8-6)
-Mounted a decent comeback against Rosemount but came up short. A busy week ahead is big for this team, including games with rival South, Benilde, and respectable Prior Lake.
Bloomington Jefferson (8-5-1)
-With wins over Benilde and Cloquet and a tie to Moorhead, there is now enough good on the Jags’ record to outweigh the bad—namely, a lopsided loss to Burnsville and another loss to Eastview. Three of their five losses are to section opponents, which is bad news for seeding, but they’re showing they can compete with some good teams, and if they keep up the momentum, they could be an interesting team to watch down the stretch. Apple Valley and Woodbury are up this week.
Sections
1AA
22 Hastings
19 Lakeville South
24 Lakeville North
Rochester Century
-No real shifts here from two weeks ago, with Hastings giving us no reason to drop from the top slot. The first of the two battles of Lakeville takes place on Tuesday, and South also has respectable Farmington the following week. Century tightened its grip on a top-4 seed with a win over Mayo and could have a claim to a higher seed given its record, but it could be hard to justify given the lack of common opponents and a couple of losses that are clearly worse than anything the Lakevilles have suffered.
2AA
1 Minnetonka
10 Chaska
7 Eden Prairie
Holy Family
-Nothing has changed here in the past two weeks, and nothing is really likely to unless Eden Prairie somehow beats Minnetonka twice in Lake play. Holy Family (the first team out of the top 25 this week) and Prior Lake play in February to decide the 4-seed.
3AA
8 St. Thomas Academy
12 Rosemount
23 Eagan
Eastview
Burnsville
25 Bloomington Jefferson
-Lots of interesting movement in this deep section. St. Thomas’s win over Rosemount coupled with the Irish’s loss to Eagan should settle the top seed. I still have Rosemount at #2 despite the Eagan loss due to the Wildcats’ losses to Burnsville and Eastview. Surging Eastview now has a split with Eagan, which is enough for 4-seed positioning right now. Jefferson is intriguing after recent strong results, but with a loss to Burnsville and only St. Thomas left as a section opponent, they may go no higher than the 6-seed.
4AA
9 White Bear Lake
13 Hill-Murray
21 Stillwater
Irondale
-The top three here are probably locked in now; even if Stillwater beats the Bears the second time around, I think they’ll have to choke away another section game or two to lose the top seed. Irondale, with a decent record and no section games left, remains the best candidate for the 4-seed, though Woodbury showed it could climb into the picture after giving White Bear a good run this past week.
5AA
4 Maple Grove
5 Blaine
Champlin Park
Centennial
-The Maple Grove-Blaine rematch lurks this week. If the Crimson win, this is easy; if Blaine wins, every game could matter down the stretch for the top seed. Champlin, which tumbles from the top 25 following a loss to Chanhassen, would still seem to be the slight favorite for the 3-seed, but we’ll have a game in February to settle that more definitively.
6AA
3 Edina
14 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
11 Wayzata
16 Blake
18 Cretin-Derham Hall
-Not much moving here, and the Blake-Wayzata game next week is the only upcoming contest of interest before the Edina-Wayzata Lake meetings. Benilde is done with competitive section opponents, so unless they really go in the tank or Wayzata does something against Edina, the Red Knights are in good shape for the 2-seed.
7AA
2 Andover
6 Duluth East
20 Cloquet
Elk River
-The top two seem obvious at this point, using both QRF and the old method. Beyond that there’s a four-team muddle, and we’ll see what the computer spits out. Cloquet, with an easier schedule the rest of the way, should control its own destiny, while Forest Lake and Elk River should also win more than they lose down the stretch. That could leave Grand Rapids in a tough spot QRF-wise, and tiebreakers could end up playing a big role if it stays tight; this is why I have the Elks at #4 right now. Rapids and Cloquet have the first of their two meetings this week, which could be key that tiebreaker.
8AA
15 Roseau
17 Moorhead
Brainerd
Bemidji
-Roseau continues to take care of business in the section, and with the Moorhead rematch and games with STMA and St. Cloud looming week after next, they could have the top seed locked up by the next time I do this. The next two are clear enough right now, based both on head-to-head results and overall body of work. Bemidji tied St. Michael-Albertville this past week, and as they’ve beaten Buffalo while Buffalo beat STMA, that’s good enough for 4-seed positioning. The Lumberjacks only have Roseau and Moorhead left in section play, so they might just be safe for a first round home game.
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