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Section predictions
Posted: Sun Jan 26, 2020 7:13 am
by moosepaw
As I looked back on my earlier predictions for the season I wasn’t to far off:
Here we go-
1AA taking Lakeville South over inconsistent penalty riddled Farmington. Confidence factor 75%
2AA Minnetonka over EP, the best game will be HF getting to the semis and playing EP. lots of emotion in that game.
80% confidence factor in Skippers.
3AA AV over Braves. Confidence factor 70%
4AA Stillwater over the HM, Hill hasn’t played well all year except first game. CF 50%
5AA MG over Blaine triple OT, CF 70%
6AA Edina over Blake, CF 90% Blake has been playing better lately not sure if it was because of the one game MIA for our head coach.
7AA Andover over NWC close game 55%
8AA Roseau over Brainerd, CF 50%
Re: Section predictions
Posted: Sun Feb 02, 2020 9:13 am
by moosepaw
Please post them when you get them.
Re: Section predictions
Posted: Sun Feb 02, 2020 11:47 am
by MNHockeyFan
According to QRF:
1AA Lakeville South over Farmington
2AA Minnetonka over Eden Prairie
3AA Apple Valley over Burnsville
4AA Stillwater over Hill-Murray
5AA Maple Grove over Blaine
6AA Edina over Blake
7AA Andover over Forest Lake
8AA Roseau over Brainerd/Little Falls
http://www.minnesota-scores.net./classs ... 10&class=3
Should those rankings prove to be accurate - which they won't because upsets are guaranteed! - the following would be the unseeded teams at the State Tournament:
No. 14 Roseau
No. 9 Apple Valley
No. 8 Stillwater
Re: Section predictions
Posted: Sun Feb 02, 2020 1:11 pm
by Eagles93
According to KRACH:
1AA Lakeville South over Farmington
2AA Eden Prairie over Minnetonka
3AA Apple Valley over Eastview
4AA Hill-Murray over Stillwater
5AA Maple Grove over Blaine
6AA Edina over Blake
7AA Andover over North Wright
8AA Roseau over Brainerd/Little Falls
Seedings at State Tournament:
1 Edina
2 Andover
3 Eden Prairie
4 Maple Grove
5 Hill-Murray
Apple Valley
Lakeville South
Roseau
Re: Section predictions
Posted: Sun Feb 02, 2020 2:59 pm
by slowD
Looking at the 1A teams who will make up the state tourney field...
Re: Section predictions
Posted: Sun Feb 02, 2020 3:57 pm
by MNHockeyFan
slowD wrote: ↑Sun Feb 02, 2020 2:59 pm
Looking at the 1A teams who will make up the state tourney field...
Class A Section winners - per QRF
1A Rochester Lourdes
2A Mound Westonka
3A Luverne
4A South St. Paul
5A Breck
6A Willmar
7A Cloquet-Esko-Carlton
8A Warroad
Unseeded teams: Rochester Lourdes, Luverne & Willmar
State Tournament Matchups - per QRF
(
https://legacy.mshsl.org/brackets/brack ... cketId=231)
2/19/20 - 11:00 AM
#2 Warroad vs. Unseeded
2/19/20 - 1:00 PM
#3 Cloquet-Esko-Carlton vs. Unseeded
2/19/20 – 6:00 PM
#1 Breck vs. Unseeded
2/19/20 – 8:00 PM
#5 Mound Westonka vs. #4 South St. Paul
Class A Section winners - per KRACH
1A Rochester Lourdes
2A Mound Westonka
3A Luverne
4A South St. Paul
5A Breck
6A Willmar
7A Proctor/Hermantown
8A Warroad
Unseeded teams: Mound Westonka, Luverne & Willmar
State Tournament Matchups - per KRACH
(
https://legacy.mshsl.org/brackets/brack ... cketId=231)
2/19/20 - 11:00 AM
#2 Proctor/Hermantown vs. Unseeded
2/19/20 - 1:00 PM
#3 Warroad vs. Unseeded
2/19/20 – 6:00 PM
#1 Breck vs. Unseeded
2/19/20 – 8:00 PM
#5 Rochester Lourdes vs. #4 South St. Paul
REMEMBER: As always, the games are decided on the ice, and
there will be upsets!
Good luck to all the teams!
Re: Section predictions
Posted: Sun Feb 02, 2020 4:54 pm
by knights14
Good luck everyone
Re: Section predictions
Posted: Mon Feb 03, 2020 10:11 am
by jg2112
knights14 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 02, 2020 4:54 pm
Section 1 is terrible it's like a JV team section. Farmington is ok at best and Lakeville South padded there non conference schedule with a bunch of cream puffs. How is it that you have 2 south suburban team in section 1AA and 6 south suburban teams in section 3AA. Hello earth to MSHSL same could be said for section 6AA what a joke.
Section 1 is further depleted. The Hockey Hub article on Farmington states their sophomore Gopher commit is out now due to hip surgery.
This is right below another article about the East Ridge goalie who recovered from ... hip surgery.
Re: Section predictions
Posted: Tue Feb 04, 2020 8:27 am
by goaliedad31
would have liked to see the section seedings done by the Krach ratings.
Re: Section predictions
Posted: Tue Feb 04, 2020 1:30 pm
by Eagles93
goaliedad31 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 04, 2020 8:27 am
would have liked to see the section seedings done by the Krach ratings.
I agree, but I also don't think there were too many egregious errors in the seeds. Most of the teams that got a higher seed than another team despite a slightly lower KRACH rating can be explained away by head-to-head results.
The few head-scratchers I notice:
1A:
Code: Select all
Rank Seed [---------Team------------] State League Sec Class KRACH_Rating SOS WL_Ratio (WW-LL-TT)
90 4 RedWing MN MNHSL 1 A 0.0422 0.06 0.73 ( 9-12- 1)
95 5 AlbertLea MN MNHSL 1 A 0.0339 0.04 0.81 (11-13- 0)
99 3 Austin MN MNHSL 1 A 0.0252 0.03 0.87 (11-12- 0)
Austin jumps ahead of Red Wing and Albert Lea. Austin split with Red Wing, and got pounded by Albert Lea 10-2 in their 1 meeting. Otherwise might not seem like a big deal as these 3 are very even in KRACH, but now Red Wing and Albert Lea meet while Austin basically gets a bye against Waseca.
7A:
Code: Select all
Rank Seed [---------Team------------] State League Sec Class KRACH_Rating SOS WL_Ratio (WW-LL-TT)
22 2 Proctor/Hermantown MN MNHSL 7 A 285.87 148.08 1.93 (15- 8- 0)
28 1 Cloquet-Esko-Carlton MN MNHSL 7 A 164.95 25.76 6.40 (20- 3- 0)
Split H2H, KRACH clearly says Proctor/Hermantown should have got the #1.
5AA:
Code: Select all
Rank Seed [---------Team------------] State League Sec Class KRACH_Rating SOS WL_Ratio (WW-LL-TT)
25 5 Centennial MN MNHSL 5 AA 176.24 182.42 0.97 (11-12- 1)
27 3 ChamplinPark/CoonRapids MN MNHSL 5 AA 169.63 108.14 1.57 (14- 9- 1)
30 4 Rogers MN MNHSL 5 AA 108.58 69.52 1.56 (13- 8- 3)
Centennial went 1-0-1 against Rogers, much higher KRACH rating and much harder SOS. (CP/CR did sweep Centennial so CP/CR at 3 is at least understandable.)
7AA:
Code: Select all
Rank Seed [---------Team------------] State League Sec Class KRACH_Rating SOS WL_Ratio (WW-LL-TT)
10 3 NorthWrightCounty MN MNHSL 7 AA 1395.66 730.08 1.91 (15- 8- 1)
19 2 ForestLake MN MNHSL 7 AA 328.14 101.96 3.22 (19- 6- 0)
These two didn't play. KRACH has NWC as a fairly heavy favorite.
8AA:
No seedings posted yet.
Re: Section predictions
Posted: Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:45 am
by Eagles93
8AA is now posted:
Code: Select all
Rank Seed [---------Team------------] State League Sec Class KRACH_Rating SOS WL_Ratio (WW-LL-TT)
34 5 Buffalo MN MNHSL 8 AA 72.23 88.18 0.82 (10-13- 2)
47 3 Alexandria MN MNHSL 8 AA 15.43 6.74 2.29 (16- 6- 3)
62 6 St.Cloud MN MNHSL 8 AA 0.6434 0.50 1.28 (13-10- 0)
64 4 Sartell/SaukRapids MN MNHSL 8 AA 0.5595 0.48 1.17 (12-10- 1)
79 8 Bemidji MN MNHSL 8 AA 0.1042 0.15 0.70 (10-14- 0)
83 7 Moorhead MN MNHSL 8 AA 0.0915 0.18 0.51 ( 7-14- 1)
This one's a hot mess compared to the KRACH rankings. At least they got the #1 and 2 correct.
Re: Section predictions
Posted: Fri Feb 07, 2020 8:54 am
by BSUBeaver
Eagles93 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:45 am
8AA is now posted:
Code: Select all
Rank Seed [---------Team------------] State League Sec Class KRACH_Rating SOS WL_Ratio (WW-LL-TT)
34 5 Buffalo MN MNHSL 8 AA 72.23 88.18 0.82 (10-13- 2)
47 3 Alexandria MN MNHSL 8 AA 15.43 6.74 2.29 (16- 6- 3)
62 6 St.Cloud MN MNHSL 8 AA 0.6434 0.50 1.28 (13-10- 0)
64 4 Sartell/SaukRapids MN MNHSL 8 AA 0.5595 0.48 1.17 (12-10- 1)
79 8 Bemidji MN MNHSL 8 AA 0.1042 0.15 0.70 (10-14- 0)
83 7 Moorhead MN MNHSL 8 AA 0.0915 0.18 0.51 ( 7-14- 1)
This one's a hot mess compared to the KRACH rankings. At least they got the #1 and 2 correct.
It even deviated from the QRF:
No. 13 (1) 1 Roseau (121.1) 8-1-0 18-5-2
No. 19 (2) 2 Brainerd/Little Falls (113.
7-3-0 15-9-1
No. 22 (3) 3 Alexandria (104.7) 5-2-0 16-6-3
No. 29 (5) 4 Sartell/Sauk Rapids (92.7) 5-5-1 14-10-1
No. 35 (6) 5 Buffalo/Maple Lake (86.0) 2-1-2 10-13-2
No. 28 (4) 6 St. Cloud (93.1) 3-7-0 15-10-0
No. 49 (8) 7 Moorhead (58.9) 1-7-1 8-16-1
No. 47 (7) 8 Bemidji (60.4) 1-6-0 10-15-0
Re: Section predictions
Posted: Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:36 am
by Lace'emUp
Eagles93 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 04, 2020 1:30 pm
5AA:
Code: Select all
Rank Seed [---------Team------------] State League Sec Class KRACH_Rating SOS WL_Ratio (WW-LL-TT)
25 5 Centennial MN MNHSL 5 AA 176.24 182.42 0.97 (11-12- 1)
27 3 ChamplinPark/CoonRapids MN MNHSL 5 AA 169.63 108.14 1.57 (14- 9- 1)
30 4 Rogers MN MNHSL 5 AA 108.58 69.52 1.56 (13- 8- 3)
Centennial went 1-0-1 against Rogers, much higher KRACH rating and much harder SOS. (CP/CR did sweep Centennial so CP/CR at 3 is at least understandable.)
CP/CR dominated Cent in their first game, and was the better of the two in the 2nd match-up. Rogers was the better of the two teams for the first 45-46 min of their first match-up with Cent (their OT loss), and also just recently tied CP/CR. Both have better QRF's than Cent, which is what the coach's traditionally look at for their seeding votes. Thus, I'm not surprised with the seedings. But it also comes down to the eyeball test. If you've watched these teams play, you'd probably agree with the seedings.