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Weekly PageStat ratings will again be posted on my website this season http://www.leepagen.com. While I ran the ratings last season, they weren't posted due to a problem with a few conferences having teams only playing games within their conference, save for a few exceptions. This "island" made it impossible to compare the ratings from one conference to another conference. It appears that problem is resolved this season. Fingers crossed!

With what I stated in mind, I put together the pre-season Top 20 toughest schedules based on last season's ratings. Take these with a grain of salt, but when you think of who recently has faced the toughest slate of opponents, this list doesn't look unreasonable.

1. Wayzata
2. Edina
3. Eden Prairie
4. St Thomas Academy
5. St Michael-Albertville
6. Moorhead
7. Maple Grove
8. Holy Family
9, Rogers
10. Minnetonka
11. Hill-Murray
12. Grand Rapids
13. Duluth East
14. Andover
15. Stillwater
16. Roseau
17. Buffalo
18. Hermantown
19. Blake
20. Benilde-St Margarets

Since we have one new team (Winona Cotter) and two newly formed co-ops (Rock Ridge & Northern Edge) games played against these three weren't used in the computation since they obviously didn't have a PageStat rating last season.

I'll be posting the SOS according to PageStat each week also, once the season is well underway (probably late December)

Lee

Huge differences between the first PageStat and Karl's initial stab at the Top 20. Perhaps the the most glaring is BSM ranked No. 20 here vs. Karl's No. 7 I believe?
(I know, as the season matures the two rankings will sort itself out, based on actual game results)

MNHockeyFan wrote: ↑Tue Nov 16, 2021 10:03 pm Huge differences between the first PageStat and Karl's initial stab at the Top 20. Perhaps the the most glaring is BSM ranked No. 20 here vs. Karl's No. 7 I believe?
(I know, as the season matures the two rankings will sort itself out, based on actual game results)

Karl's is based on toughest teams, the list I provided above is based on toughest schedules. No way would PageStat have East rated #13, but they do have the 13th toughest schedule, keeping in mind this is based on team's ratings from last season.

Lee

Running preliminary PageStat ratings through last night's games, the top rated team in every Class AA section is from the Twin Cities metro. I believe this is a first, and not a welcomed one.

Lee

east hockey wrote: ↑Fri Dec 17, 2021 11:52 am Running preliminary PageStat ratings through last night's games, the top rated team in every Class AA section is from the Twin Cities metro. I believe this is a first, and not a welcomed one.

Lee

Unwelcome, unpleasant, unwanted, undesirable, unappealing, unseemly, unfavorable.

mnmouth wrote: ↑Fri Dec 17, 2021 12:25 pm

east hockey wrote: ↑Fri Dec 17, 2021 11:52 am Running preliminary PageStat ratings through last night's games, the top rated team in every Class AA section is from the Twin Cities metro. I believe this is a first, and not a welcomed one.

Lee

Unwelcome, unpleasant, unwanted, undesirable, unappealing, unseemly, unfavorable.

Sounds like something Jackie Chiles from Seinfeld would say

Lee

can’t seem to find it, have you posted it yet?

Had this discussion over text a couple days ago. The case for mushing 7 & 8 together is there'll always be a northern team at state. Now the exurban areas can send St. M-A, Elk River, or someone else.

Another way of looking at this is it wouldn't be like that if Hermantown opted up to AA.

O-townClown wrote: ↑Fri Dec 17, 2021 2:13 pm Had this discussion over text a couple days ago. The case for mushing 7 & 8 together is there'll always be a northern team at state. Now the exurban areas can send St. M-A, Elk River, or someone else.

Another way of looking at this is it wouldn't be like that if Hermantown opted up to AA.

To be fair, STMA or ER coming out of 8AA would be a decent-sized upset over the next few years. (Partially assuming Moorhead can get their act together.) Moving Rogers out was a boon for the northern teams. Andover is the main villain to contend with for those desiring two northern teams at the X, and Rapids isn’t light years behind them. Combining the sections may ensure a northern representative, but it also precludes any chance of having two.

WestMetro wrote: ↑Fri Dec 17, 2021 1:56 pm can’t seem to find it, have you posted it yet?

Be posted Sunday.

Lee

1st installment of PageStat for 2021-22 Minnesota Boys' High School Hockey

http://www.leepagen.com/ps2022.htm

SOS (Strength of Schedule) for same teams

http://www.leepagen.com/sos2022.htm

Lee

Good report as usual

About only things i’m sure of so far this year:

-Hawks are the best
-AA is wide open
- PL needs a restart
-Lvs and Gentry weak schedules so far , so still some things to prove

east hockey wrote: ↑Sun Dec 19, 2021 9:51 am 1st installment of PageStat for 2021-22 Minnesota Boys' High School Hockey

http://www.leepagen.com/ps2022.htm

SOS (Strength of Schedule) for same teams

http://www.leepagen.com/sos2022.htm

Lee

Maybe I missed an explanation somewhere, but is there a reason that the PageStat ratings aren't sorted numerically from top to bottom?

Corn Cobb wrote: ↑Sun Dec 19, 2021 3:22 pm

east hockey wrote: ↑Sun Dec 19, 2021 9:51 am 1st installment of PageStat for 2021-22 Minnesota Boys' High School Hockey

http://www.leepagen.com/ps2022.htm

SOS (Strength of Schedule) for same teams

http://www.leepagen.com/sos2022.htm

Lee

Maybe I missed an explanation somewhere, but is there a reason that the PageStat ratings aren't sorted numerically from top to bottom?

The easiest explanation is that I went braindead. I had the teams in the correct order, but it was pulling the wrong rating. It was using the rating from just this season, and a team's rating is a mix of current season/past season until they play at least seven games.

It looks like it's fixed now, and I can't find my head-hanging-in-shame emoticon.

Lee

east hockey wrote: ↑Sun Dec 19, 2021 5:48 pm The easiest explanation is that I went braindead. I had the teams in the correct order, but it was pulling the wrong rating. It was using the rating from just this season, and a team's rating is a mix of current season/past season until they play at least seven games.

It looks like it's fixed now, and I can't find my head-hanging-in-shame emoticon.

Lee

Not to worry, your contributions here are appreciated by all.

Breaking today's PageStat down by sections, from highest to lowest:

6AA 19.13
8AA 18.93
2AA 18.79
3AA 18.21
4AA 18.01
5AA 17.90
7AA 16.77
1AA 16.35
2A 15.39
4A 14.23
8A 13.42
5A 13.24
7A 12.69
6A 11.88
3A 10.60
1A 10.41

Class AA average--18.01
Class A average--12.73

As to the difference between the classes, no surprise there. The gap has been increasing (Hermantown notwithstanding) for several years and a lot of that has to do with some Class A teams opting up. I had a numerical analysis of that issue set to go last year, but in the process of changing webhosts and the changeover from minnhock.com to leepagen.com, it was forgotten. Not lost as I still have the raw data and some summaries complete. At some point it will be uploaded to my website. That should spur some discussion as I'm sure there are a multitude of "theories" as to why that is and if it means anything for the future.

Lee

I noted that Tonka's scheduled didn't look all the impressive to me and as of now that's holding true at 44th overall. Not sure if that's a Goldsworthy thing or not but I don't like it.

Slap Shot wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 7:54 am I noted that Tonka's scheduled didn't look all the impressive to me and as of now that's holding true at 44th overall. Not sure if that's a Goldsworthy thing or not but I don't like it.

True, it doesn't so far but they haven't played certain teams in their conference as of yet. That rating will rise.

Lee

Interim PageStat Top 20 after last night's games:

1 Hermantown
2 Edina
3 Centennial
4 Hill Murray
5 Lakeville South
6 Maple Grove
7 Wayzata
8 Cretin Derham Hall
9 Andover
10 Benilde-St Margarets
11 Eden Prairie
12 Roseau
13 St Thomas Academy
14 Elk River
15 St Michael-Albertville
16 Moorhead
17 Mahtomedi
18 Grand Rapids
19 Minnetonka
20 Chaska

Of interest to me were the four 8AA teams bunched between the #12 and #16 positions

Also, Minneapolis has jumped into the #4 spot in Class A. Great job!

Lee

Pagestat and LSQ both love Centennial based on their large margins of victory against solid competition and the close loss to Maple Grove. Will be interested to see how things play out for them over a larger sample of games.

Starting this week, I am adding a section where the ratings are sorted by section:

http://www.leepagen.com/ps2022.htm#sections

Lee

good job as usual !

rankings all seem to make intuitive sense within reason
, as compared to the other statistical models which always seems to have outliers

interesting to think about the # 2 vs 20 gap between Roseau and Warroad , especially b4 upcoming Tuesday matchup . Roseau has about 5-6 top 25 wins vs Warroads 2-3? But in a 7 game series , this would probably be a tossup due to rivalry factor.

Updated Strength of Schedule, finds a surprise at the top. I can't recall the last time we didn't have a Lake Conference team in the top 2!

http://www.leepagen.com/sos2022.htm

Lee

east hockey wrote: ↑Sun Jan 02, 2022 9:49 am Starting this week, I am adding a section where the ratings are sorted by section:

http://www.leepagen.com/ps2022.htm#sections

Lee

Seems a little odd how Duluth East can be the 4th ranked team in their section despite having just the one win to their credit at this point.

I don't think I've seen this kind of jumble in the Class AA 1-10 positions in PageStat in a long time. I haven't checked, but I think we've seen four or five teams take their turn at the #1 spot in the past month. The current #1, Maple Grove, won't be tomorrow after their three goal loss to Centennial tonight.

Lee